Central Banks & Macro · 1–3 years horizon
What if Nigerian gas-to-power buildout eases chronic outages?
New gas-fired and grid investment cuts Nigeria's crippling power shortages, lifting industrial output, growth and naira sentiment.
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Central Banks & Macro · 1–3 years horizon
What if Andean oil cooperation restores Ecuador exports?
Restored security and pipeline repairs lift Ecuadorian crude exports, improving the fiscal balance and the country's frontier-market standing.
Central Banks & Macro · 1–3 years horizon
What if Cocoa price normalization eases chocolate-cost inflation?
Recovering West African cocoa output normalizes prices from record highs, easing global confectionery-input inflation and helping Ivory Coast and Ghana FX.
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- GlobalWhat if Somali offshore gas discovery reshapes Horn prospects?55%
- Mali, MyanmarWhat if Junta-coastal détente reopens Sahel trade?54%
- GlobalWhat if Ivory Coast cocoa-processing boom lifts the CFA?54%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico nearshoring wave lifts the peso?54%
- MexicoWhat if Banxico easing cycle powers a peso carry comeback?54%
- United States, MexicoWhat if Mexico becomes North America's manufacturing core?54%
- GlobalWhat if West African free-trade zone deepens regional growth?54%
- GlobalWhat if East African integration lifts a 250m-person market?54%
- Chile, EcuadorWhat if Andean copper-and-lithium cycle lifts the region?54%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico investment-grade defense draws stable inflows?54%
- United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates +1What if Ras El-Hekma Gulf-FDI cash backstops Egypt's FX gap?54%
- Ghana, MaliWhat if West Africa lithium belt becomes EV-supply anchor?53%
- GlobalWhat if Guyana oil boom makes it the fastest-growing economy?53%
- Nigeria, GhanaWhat if Gulf-of-Guinea gas projects firm regional FX?53%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria farm-mechanization drive cuts food inflation?53%
- Argentina, Chile +1What if Latin America lithium triangle anchors EV materials?53%
- Turkey, EgyptWhat if MENA disinflation broadens, real EM yields turn attractive?53%
- United StatesWhat if Fed ends QT and pivots to a passive balance-sheet runoff stop?53%
- MaliWhat if AES bloc reopens to Western mining capital?52%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia eurobond restructuring unlocks IMF cash?52%
- Zambia, DR CongoWhat if DRC-Zambia copper corridor lifts regional growth?52%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria reforms restore reserves and naira stability?52%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela reopening drags Gulf-Coast heavy-crude spreads?52%
- MexicoWhat if USMCA review renewed, Mexico tariff cloud lifts?52%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria demographic dividend powers consumer growth?52%
- France, SwitzerlandWhat if CFA franc reform deal calms West African markets?52%
- Ghana, MaliWhat if African gold producers ride record-bullion windfall?52%
- GlobalWhat if Horn-of-Africa port boom anchors regional trade growth?52%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt's debt-to-GDP turns lower on fiscal primary surplus?52%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey Eurobond issuance is heavily oversubscribed?52%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt reform-and-FDI story makes it the EM turnaround trade?52%
- European UnionWhat if ECB cuts into a fragile recovery, reflating the periphery?52%
- ChinaWhat if China's provincial pension funds run out of money?51%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt's pound steadies on Gulf and IMF backing?51%
- NigeriaWhat if Dangote refinery makes Nigeria a net product exporter?51%
- United States, Nigeria +1What if Africa eurobond market reopens as Fed eases?51%
- United StatesWhat if Fiscal-dominance debasement trade drives gold above $3,500?51%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana cedi stabilizes on cocoa-and-gold windfall?50%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador security gains revive investor confidence?50%
- GlobalWhat if Guyana sovereign wealth fund anchors Caribbean growth?50%
- United States, Mexico +1What if Latin America disinflation reopens EM bond inflows?50%
- Switzerland, DR CongoWhat if DRC franc stabilizes on mining-revenue surge?50%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico energy reform reopening lures private capital?50%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela dollarization stabilizes the economy?50%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia WTO accession and reforms draw FDI?50%
- GlobalWhat if Southern Africa gas corridor turns region into exporter?50%
- MexicoWhat if Pemex turnaround eases Mexican sovereign-risk overhang?50%
- EgyptWhat if IMF completes Egypt's EFF review, unlocking the next tranche?50%
- IndiaWhat if India stays the fastest-growing major economy at 7%+?50%
- GlobalWhat if Real-rate reversal sparks gold ETF outflows and a sharp pullback?50%
- GlobalWhat if Credible bipartisan US deficit deal pulls the term premium lower?50%
- GlobalWhat if DM bond bull market: disinflation plus cuts drive a bull-steepener?50%
- GlobalWhat if DM disinflation completes, central banks pivot to a cutting cycle?50%
- United StatesWhat if Fed reactivates the standing repo facility to ring-fence funding?50%
- GermanyWhat if high energy costs drive German industry abroad?49%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria refining hub reshapes West African fuel trade?49%
- GlobalWhat if Guyana-Suriname offshore turns the Guianas into an oil hub?49%
- GlobalWhat if Central-bank gold super-surge tops 1,300t/yr?49%
- IndiaWhat if JPMorgan GBI-EM full 10% India weight pulls passive inflows?49%
- JapanWhat if BOJ scraps yield-curve control without a JGB market dislocation?49%
- GlobalWhat if Social Security's depletion date moves earlier yet again?48%
- GlobalWhat if Mozambique gas revenue lifts the metical?48%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa-Mozambique grid link eases power crisis?48%
- China, DR CongoWhat if Great Lakes minerals pact diversifies battery supply?48%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkish equities re-rate as the inflation tax fades?48%
- China, South Korea +1What if Vietnam becomes the #1 China+1 FDI winner (>8% of GDP)?48%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia rises as neutral AI-chip routing hub amid US curbs?48%
- United StatesWhat if Fed shifts to a 'meeting-by-meeting' data-dependence that markets reward?48%
- TaiwanWhat if TSMC Arizona 2nm ramp dilutes Taiwan single-point-of-failure?47%
- Yemen, SudanWhat if Sudan reconstruction reopens Red Sea gold trade?47%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey-EU customs-union upgrade lifts the export base?47%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if Abu Dhabi's AAA-anchored credit tightens UAE spreads further?47%
- China, South Korea +1What if Indonesia nickel/EV downstreaming windfall lifts export value?47%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines mining liberalization revives FDI into nickel/copper?47%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia data-center power demand spurs gas-and-grid buildout?47%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia GLC reform and dividend repatriation boost equities?47%
- United Kingdom, VietnamWhat if Vietnam VN-Index re-rates on EM status plus earnings upcycle?47%
- United StatesWhat if Fed front-loads a faster cutting cycle than the dots imply?47%
- United StatesWhat if Fed glides to a soft landing with a shallow telegraphed cutting path?47%
- United StatesWhat if Fed leans dovish as the dual mandate tilts toward jobs?47%
- United StatesWhat if Fed declares the last mile won and front-loads relief cuts?47%
- United StatesWhat if Fed cuts and long yields fall together in a textbook bull rally?47%
- ThailandWhat if Thailand's household debt traps it in stagnation?46%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia's birr float overshoots into inflation spiral?46%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela debt restructuring revives defaulted bonds?46%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela transition opens reconstruction investment?46%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier-Africa local-currency bonds draw global funds?46%
- GlobalWhat if Haiti reconstruction plan reopens to investment?46%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt re-included in the GBI-EM index, inflows return?46%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if IMF review slips, Egypt's catalytic financing stalls?46%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi sovereign upgraded as fiscal breakeven falls?46%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if Golden-visa FDI surge powers a Dubai non-oil boom?46%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi reserve drawdown accelerates as deficits compound?46%
- GlobalWhat if GCC monetary-union and bond-market integration advances?46%
- United States, Turkey +1What if Renewed dollar surge re-stresses MENA EM currencies?46%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria prints a blowout oversubscribed eurobond?46%
- GlobalWhat if Africa's demographic dividend powers a consumer-growth decade?46%
- India, United KingdomWhat if FTSE Russell EMGBI add stacks a second India inflow wave?46%
- IndiaWhat if Domestic SIP flows cushion NIFTY through an FPI exodus?46%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia fintech/digital-bank boom deepens credit access?46%
- PolandWhat if Poland EU-funds peak fuels a 3.5% growth boom?46%
- United StatesWhat if US revenue surprise shrinks the deficit, supply fears recede?46%
- GlobalWhat if EM central banks run an aggressive synchronized easing cycle?46%
- NigerWhat if Nuclear-renaissance demand outruns uranium supply?45%
- China, DR CongoWhat if US-Congo minerals deal anchors EV supply chain?45%
- GlobalWhat if Haiti stabilization mission restores partial order?45%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela hyperinflation re-accelerates as bolivar collapses?45%
- ArgentinaWhat if Vaca Muerta pipeline debottleneck lifts Argentine oil shipments?45%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam North-South high-speed rail unlocks logistics boom?45%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia LNG export windfall as Asian gas demand surges?45%
- United Kingdom, VietnamWhat if Vietnam upgrade prompts $1bn+ active EM fund reallocation?45%
- China, VietnamWhat if Vietnam emerges as top non-China electronics export hub?45%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia consumer/EV-2-wheeler boom drives domestic demand?45%
- GlobalWhat if Record number of countries in IMF programs simultaneously?45%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC unleashes a stimulus bazooka to defibrillate demand?45%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia GERD power exports lift regional growth?44%
- NigeriaWhat if Naira slides anew as FX reforms stall?44%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico judicial overhaul spurs capital outflows?44%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria food-import FX squeeze deepens hunger?44%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico nearshoring FDI surge powers an industrial boom?44%
- ChileWhat if Copper supercycle windfall lifts Chile's peso and budget?44%
- TurkeyWhat if Foreign inflows flood Turkish local bonds as orthodoxy sticks?44%
- United States, Saudi ArabiaWhat if Oil windfall lets SAMA ease in step with the Fed?44%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if UAE diversification earns a top-tier sovereign re-rating?44%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey sovereign sukuk demand deepens as Gulf money returns?44%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi PIF taps global debt at scale to fund Vision 2030?44%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt's risk premium normalizes toward single-B peers?44%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if UAE diversification makes it the Gulf's growth and capital winner?44%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt Ras El-Hekma model replicated with new mega-deals?44%
- NigeriaWhat if Naira re-collapses as reserves prove too thin to defend?44%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia's birr float overshoots into an inflation spiral?44%
- China, IndiaWhat if Apple shifts a quarter of iPhone output to India?44%
- United Kingdom, VietnamWhat if Vietnam upgrade inflows undershoot as omnibus-account fix lags?44%
- China, South Korea +1What if Indonesia EV-battery cluster anchors Korean/Chinese FDI?44%
- Thailand, VietnamWhat if Vietnam overtakes Thailand as ASEAN's #2 export economy?44%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam joins global chip supply chain via Nvidia/partner deals?44%
- GlobalWhat if US deficit-to-GDP falls below 5% on spending caps and growth?44%
- GlobalWhat if Coordinated EM easing reflates global trade and commodity demand?44%
- DR Congo, IndonesiaWhat if Cobalt glut from Indonesia caps DRC pricing power?43%
- GlobalWhat if Mozambique LNG restart adds new global gas supply?43%
- GlobalWhat if MENA local-currency debt joins benchmark indices en masse?43%
- European UnionWhat if ECB delivers a 'soft-landing' easing that revives periphery growth?43%
- United KingdomWhat if BoE engineers an orderly easing as UK inflation finally cracks?43%
- GlobalWhat if Global disinflation lets central banks cut in a synchronized risk-on?43%
- Japan, TaiwanWhat if TSMC Japan Kumamoto cluster diversifies node geography?42%
- China, VietnamWhat if Vietnam 'China+1' FDI surge powers VND and equities?42%
- Poland, Romania +1What if CEE convergence trade revives after de-escalation?42%
- DR CongoWhat if Congo cobalt refining onshores value at home?42%
- GlobalWhat if GENIUS-Act dollar stablecoins entrench USD online?42%
- United StatesWhat if Fed independence holds; orderly easing cycle?42%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia orthodox-successor rally re-rates COP and bonds?42%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey regains investment-grade trajectory, CDS halves?42%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey GBI-EM weight rises as bond market normalizes?42%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi mega-IPO draws record foreign inflows to the Tadawul?42%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey credit boom relapse reignites import-led deficit?42%
- GlobalWhat if Gulf bond-supply glut widens regional credit spreads?42%
- United Kingdom, Yemen +1What if Suez Canal revenue recovery rebuilds Egypt's FX buffer?42%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi capital-market reforms draw EM index re-weighting up?42%
- NigeriaWhat if Naira stabilizes as CBN clears the FX backlog?42%
- China, IndiaWhat if MSCI India weight overtakes China in EM benchmark?42%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia becomes top-5 global economy as 8% growth compounds?42%
- GlobalWhat if Uzbekistan reform-and-FDI boom drives 7.7% growth?42%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka state-contingent bond pays bonus coupon on GDP beat?42%
- United KingdomWhat if UK fiscal credibility restored, gilt risk premium drains away?42%
- GlobalWhat if US PAYGO discipline returns, deficit path bends lower?42%
- United States, European UnionWhat if ECB front-loads cuts as eurozone disinflation outpaces forecasts?42%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC cuts the RRR to flood the banking system with liquidity?42%
- GlobalWhat if EM real-rate champions draw record carry inflows on credible cuts?42%
- BelgiumWhat if the EU guts its 2040 climate target?41%
- GlobalWhat if Congress triggers another full government shutdown this autumn?41%
- GlobalWhat if European defense ETFs lead a regional bull market?41%
- PeruWhat if Peru's dollar-mountain reserves anchor a low-volatility boom?41%
- TurkeyWhat if Lira real appreciation as the carry trade re-anchors Turkey?41%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if ADIA and Mubadala deploy a record AI and infra capital wave?41%
- GlobalWhat if GCC sovereign funds rotate into local Gulf equities?41%
- NigeriaWhat if Dangote refinery turns Nigeria into a net fuel exporter?41%
- South AfricaWhat if GNU reform momentum sparks a South Africa re-rating?41%
- IndiaWhat if Bloomberg EM Local index inclusion completes the India trifecta?41%
- China, VietnamWhat if Dong tracks weaker CNY as PBoC fixes drift higher?41%
- Indonesia, MalaysiaWhat if Indonesia and Malaysia lead JCI/KLCI re-rating on commodity bid?41%
- GlobalWhat if ASEAN demographic dividend powers a consumption supercycle?41%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia semiconductor IDM/foundry localization deepens?41%
- PolandWhat if Poland's €43.7bn SAFE loan launches a defense supercycle?41%
- HungaryWhat if Post-Orban EU-funds unfreeze ignites a forint rally?41%
- GlobalWhat if Bipartisan entitlement fix removes the US long-run deficit overhang?41%
- United StatesWhat if Fed cuts its r-star estimate, anchoring a lower-for-longer regime?41%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC backstops the property sector with targeted relending tools?41%
- GlobalWhat if the 2s10s yield curve dis-inverts sharply?40%
- Hong KongWhat if Hong Kong's office values collapse by half?40%
- GermanyWhat if the far-right AfD enters a German state government?40%
- China, GermanyWhat if Germany's export model finally breaks?40%
- HungaryWhat if Hungary and Slovakia veto EU treaty change?40%
- GlobalWhat if Schengen unravels as states reimpose border checks?40%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt lets the pound slide past 60 to the dollar?40%
- DR CongoWhat if DRC cobalt export ban tightens the battery chain?40%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria oil-theft crackdown lifts export volumes?40%
- SudanWhat if South Sudan pipeline reopening restores crude flows?40%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil's Selic-cut disinflation sparks a BRL carry rally?40%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey CPI breaks to 26% as the CBRT begins easing?40%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt's unified float clears the parallel-market premium?40%
- QatarWhat if Qatar LNG windfall powers a sovereign-wealth and credit upgrade?40%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if Dubai non-oil PMI hits records on trade and tourism boom?40%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey lira-bond inflows reverse on a global EM outflow wave?40%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana completes a clean default exit and re-rates?40%
- ZambiaWhat if Zambia completes a clean restructuring exit?40%
- IndiaWhat if RBI eases as CPI holds in the lower target band?40%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines sustains 6% growth as infrastructure spend ramps?40%
- United StatesWhat if Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing?40%
- United StatesWhat if Fed skips a meeting, opening the door to a soft-landing pause?40%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC trims policy rates (LPR/MLF) to revive credit demand?40%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC stabilization fund underpins onshore equities and confidence?40%
- GlobalWhat if EM disinflation lets central banks cut while keeping real rates high?40%
- CanadaWhat if BoC cuts cushion a mortgage-renewal wall in a soft landing?40%
- United StatesWhat if Fed makes the Bank Term Funding backstop permanent, calming banks?40%
- ChinaWhat if China exports deflation as factory-gate prices collapse?39%
- ChinaWhat if China floods the world with subsidized steel and solar?39%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela's inflation re-accelerates and forces another redenomination?39%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria's naira breaks past 1,800 to the dollar?39%
- United StatesWhat if a 30-year Treasury auction draws a record tail?39%
- United StatesWhat if a rapid Treasury cash rebuild drains bank reserves?39%
- JapanWhat if BoJ executes a smooth normalization; JGB yields rise orderly?39%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt secures an IMF RSF climate-resilience facility?39%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt remittances surge after the float, dollars flood back?39%
- Turkey, EgyptWhat if Gulf-to-Egypt-and-Turkey capital recycling stabilizes the region?39%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi FDI inflows finally accelerate toward Vision 2030 targets?39%
- Turkey, EgyptWhat if MENA reform momentum re-rates the region's sovereign complex?39%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria reform credibility triggers eurobond re-rating?39%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya regains eurobond access and refinances cleanly?39%
- China, IndiaWhat if China+1 FDI wave lifts India FDI past $100bn a year?39%
- United States, China +1What if US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods?39%
- United Kingdom, Indonesia +2What if ASEAN index-weight rises as MSCI/FTSE EM lift allocations?39%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia palm-to-biofuel mandate lifts CPO demand and prices?39%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia geothermal/nickel green-energy push draws FDI?39%
- Germany, PolandWhat if Poland nearshoring wave makes it Europe's factory?39%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt megadeal asset sales clear maturity wall and tighten spreads?39%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier eurobond market reopens: 5 ex-defaulters issue in one quarter?39%
- Germany, ItalyWhat if Italy fiscal redemption: primary surplus compresses BTPs to Bunds?39%
- GlobalWhat if Euro-area debt ratios fall in unison as growth and surpluses align?39%
- European UnionWhat if ECB pre-commits to backstop spreads, anchoring periphery calm?39%
- GlobalWhat if Aging entrenches secular stagnation, r* sinks below 0.5%?39%
- GlobalWhat if cooling inflation and steady growth confirm a soft landing?38%
- Switzerland, Mali +1What if AES quits CFA franc, West African FX splits?38%
- ArgentinaWhat if Vaca Muerta crude exports double, rebuilding Argentine reserves?38%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey rate-cut cycle proceeds without breaking the lira?38%
- IndiaWhat if Semiconductor fabs anchor a Gujarat-Assam chip cluster?38%
- Vietnam, MalaysiaWhat if ASEAN semis cluster (VN+MY) re-rates on AI-packaging demand?38%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines copper-project revival feeds global green-metal demand?38%
- GlobalWhat if Global term premium compresses as inflation re-anchors?38%
- GlobalWhat if Global disinflation lets DM grow into their debt loads?38%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC and fiscal authorities co-launch a consumption-stimulus combo?38%
- Germany, FranceWhat if Moody's strips France of another notch?37%
- LebanonWhat if Lebanon's depositor recovery law stalls in parliament?37%
- FranceWhat if S&P cuts France toward an A- rating?37%
- Japan, TaiwanWhat if Global 'silicon shield' diversification halves Taiwan chip share?37%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina posts a sustained primary fiscal surplus?37%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador IMF program success drives an EMBI spread rally?37%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey current-account swings to surplus on tourism and exports?37%
- South AfricaWhat if Eskom ends load-shedding, lifting South African growth?37%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya disinflation lets the CBK cut into a bond rally?37%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia clinches a Common Framework restructuring breakthrough?37%
- IndiaWhat if India G-sec foreign ownership doubles past 6% on index demand?37%
- IndiaWhat if India's $5tn GDP milestone re-rates the equity market?37%
- IndiaWhat if RBI gold-buying spree lifts bullion's share of India's reserves?37%
- IndiaWhat if GST buoyancy pushes India's tax-to-GDP to a record?37%
- IndiaWhat if Demographic dividend and formalization widen India's tax base?37%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam GDP prints 8% as private capex and exports compound?37%
- ThailandWhat if Thailand medical-tourism and wellness boom widens services surplus?37%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia tin-export squeeze tightens global solder supply?37%
- ThailandWhat if Thailand BoP swings to surplus on tourism and gold reserves?37%
- Germany, CzechiaWhat if Czechia stays best-in-CEE credit on a German upswing?37%
- KazakhstanWhat if Kazakhstan's Tengiz FGP ramp adds 260kb/d of crude?37%
- Poland, Romania +1What if CEE convergence trade outperforms broader EM?37%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana exits default and re-enters EMBI at deep-discount reopening?37%
- MongoliaWhat if Mongolia copper boom funds eurobond buyback and rating upgrade?37%
- GlobalWhat if IMF RST climate-financing wave funds 15+ resilience programs?37%
- GlobalWhat if EM hard-currency sovereign issuance hits annual record?37%
- GlobalWhat if Cheap-oil real-income boost lifts consumer spending?37%
- GlobalWhat if Growth-friendly US consolidation: bonds rally without recession?37%
- GreeceWhat if Greece keeps investment grade, periphery convergence broadens?37%
- GlobalWhat if Term-premium normalization without crisis as supply is well-absorbed?37%
- Italy, Spain +2What if Periphery primary surpluses broaden, fragmentation risk fades?37%
- GlobalWhat if Soft-landing fiscal dividend: falling rates shrink DM deficits?37%
- JapanWhat if BOJ caps long-end JGB volatility with a calibrated bond-buying band?37%
- China, AustraliaWhat if RBA pivots to cuts as China-demand drag cools Australian prices?37%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed signals higher rates for longer?36%
- ChinaWhat if China's central bank unleashes a stimulus bazooka?36%
- GlobalWhat if Moody's strips the US of another notch to Aa2?36%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar smile reasserts: DXY rebounds on haven demand?36%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine peso firms as monthly inflation hits low single digits?36%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico disinflation soft landing keeps the super-peso bid?36%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria oil-output recovery delivers a revenue windfall?36%
- NigeriaWhat if CBN rate-cut cycle begins as Nigerian inflation rolls over?36%
- NigeriaWhat if FX reforms stall and a parallel-market gap reopens?36%
- China, AngolaWhat if Angola oil windfall pays down China oil-backed loans?36%
- South Africa, Nigeria +2What if Synchronized commodity crash hits SSA exporters at once?36%
- IndiaWhat if S&P upgrades India to BBB on fiscal-glide-path delivery?36%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia sovereign rating upgraded as downstreaming pays off?36%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia tech-and-tourism dual engine lifts growth above 5%?36%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines investment-grade-plus inflows broaden ROP demand?36%
- AzerbaijanWhat if Azerbaijan doubles Southern Gas Corridor flows to Europe?36%
- GlobalWhat if Gold rallies as US debt-ceiling brinkmanship hits Treasuries?36%
- United StatesWhat if Gold outperforms as confidence in long-bond Treasuries fades?36%
- GreeceWhat if Greece upgraded deeper into IG, periphery doom-loop fear fades?36%
- GlobalWhat if Hawkish dot-plot surprise: median path lifts the terminal rate?36%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC interest-on-reserves cut pushes banks to lend, not hoard?36%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC weaker-fix tolerance unleashes pent-up domestic stimulus?36%
- GlobalWhat if US Social Security OASI trust fund hits depletion near 2032?36%
- RomaniaWhat if a populist Romanian budget triggers a leu selloff?35%
- IranWhat if Iran's inflation tops 80 percent as deficit monetisation accelerates?35%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey restarts rate cuts with inflation near 30%?35%
- GlobalWhat if a 900 billion euro Dutch pension switch dislocates the bond market?35%
- Japan, IndiaWhat if Friend-shored chip fabs make Asia chip-supply resilient?35%
- PolandWhat if PLN rallies as the eastern-front risk premium fades?35%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina climbs out of CCC as IMF EFF targets are met?35%
- South AfricaWhat if Eskom contingent blowup forces a South African bailout?35%
- VietnamWhat if SBV burns reserves defending dong past 26,500 floor?35%
- VietnamWhat if Dong stabilization + carry revival pulls in real-money flows?35%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines rating upgraded to A-band on growth and reform?35%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia real-yield premium draws record SBN bond inflows?35%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia capital-market deepening lifts SBN demand and IDR?35%
- PolandWhat if Poland prints the EU's #2 deficit at ~6.5% of GDP?35%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya pre-funds 2027 maturity via oversubscribed new eurobond?35%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier upgrade super-cycle: 5 default-exiters re-rated to B?35%
- GlobalWhat if Structural dollar-bear cycle sparks a broad EM-FX renaissance?35%
- GlobalWhat if Gold demand surges as negative real yields return?35%
- GlobalWhat if US fiscal populism steepens the curve, 30Y tops 5%?35%
- United States, European UnionWhat if the ECB cuts rates ahead of the Fed?34%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia's stalled eurobond default deepens?34%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed quietly expands its balance sheet?34%
- JapanWhat if Japan exits deflation cleanly; Nikkei rerates on reflation?34%
- GlobalWhat if Ivory Coast cocoa rebound ends the deficit?34%
- ChinaWhat if China unleashes large fiscal-monetary stimulus?34%
- United States, MexicoWhat if Banxico's wide rate gap to the Fed sustains peso carry?34%
- ChileWhat if Chile lithium-strategy partnerships scale battery-metal exports?34%
- United StatesWhat if Broad LatAm disinflation reopens hard-currency bond inflows?34%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkish disinflation reaches single digits by 2027?34%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkish bank deleveraging ends, credit normalizes?34%
- South AfricaWhat if SARB rate-cut cycle fuels a South African bond rally?34%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana cedi relapses as fiscal slippage returns?34%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia IMF program disbursement reboots reserves?34%
- South Africa, Nigeria +1What if Frontier-Africa local-currency bonds rejoin global indices?34%
- NigeriaWhat if CBN orthodox tightening restores naira credibility?34%
- IndonesiaWhat if Rupiah capital-flight break sends USD/IDR past 17,500?34%
- ThailandWhat if Thailand becomes regional AI/cloud data-center hub?34%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia coal-price rebound restores fiscal and FX buffers?34%
- GlobalWhat if ASEAN green-FDI wave funds solar, grid and EV value chains?34%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka tourism-led recovery earns rating upgrade out of default?34%
- GlobalWhat if Cheap-oil terms-of-trade gain lifts EM importer currencies?34%
- GlobalWhat if Energy-driven CPI undershoot pulls breakevens lower?34%
- GlobalWhat if Disinflationary oil glut steepens the yield curve via cuts?34%
- GlobalWhat if US rating outlook restored to stable as deficit path improves?34%
- JapanWhat if Japan reflation success: wage-price cycle stabilizes JGB demand?34%
- JapanWhat if Japan's nominal-GDP boom quietly shrinks its debt ratio?34%
- GlobalWhat if Goldilocks fiscal-monetary mix: deficits fall as growth holds?34%
- Germany, FranceWhat if France delivers credible multi-year consolidation, OAT re-rates?34%
- JapanWhat if the Bank of Japan intervenes to defend the yen past 165?33%
- ChinaWhat if Chinese households permanently hoard their savings?33%
- Japan, TaiwanWhat if TSMC dual-fab Japan+US strategy compresses TWD risk premium?33%
- TaiwanWhat if Taiwan completes LNG storage buildout to a 24-day buffer?33%
- Switzerland, MaliWhat if Sahel instability drains CFA-zone reserves?33%
- JapanWhat if BoJ normalizes smoothly; yen carry stays orderly?33%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine lithium triangle output scales, anchoring EV materials?33%
- ArgentinaWhat if Bumper Argentine soy harvest floods reserves with farm dollars?33%
- Argentina, Chile +1What if LatAm lithium triangle dominates global EV-battery supply?33%
- Saudi Arabia, YemenWhat if Saudi giga-projects deliver, foreign capital re-rates Tadawul?33%
- QatarWhat if Qatar's LNG surplus funds a sovereign-wealth and credit boom?33%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria ratings upgrade rewards the reform path?33%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa ratings stabilize as debt path flattens?33%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia GERD full output powers an export-earnings jump?33%
- China, IndiaWhat if India PLI scheme turns the country into a generics-export hub?33%
- IndiaWhat if RBI's smoothing keeps the rupee Asia's lowest-vol EM currency?33%
- IndiaWhat if India auto and EV demand cycle powers industrial earnings?33%
- IndiaWhat if Policy-continuity mandate extends India's reform-and-capex agenda?33%
- IndiaWhat if India real-estate and housing upcycle broadens the recovery?33%
- ThailandWhat if Strong-baht competitiveness shock hammers Thai exports?33%
- China, ThailandWhat if Thailand EV-supply-chain pivot draws Chinese auto FDI?33%
- China, Indonesia +4What if ASEAN-5 supply-chain bloc captures China+1 manufacturing wave?33%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia–EU CEPA deal unlocks export and FDI upside?33%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia nickel cartel-style coordination props up LME price?33%
- GlobalWhat if EM local-debt foreign-inflow supercycle on index inclusion?33%
- JapanWhat if Japan normalizes rates smoothly without a JGB rupture?33%
- GlobalWhat if Productivity-led DM disinflation rallies bonds and equities together?33%
- JapanWhat if Japan completes BoJ normalization with JGB market intact?33%
- United StatesWhat if Reaffirmed Fed independence anchors inflation expectations (good)?33%
- United KingdomWhat if stagflation becomes entrenched in Britain?32%
- MexicoWhat if a Pemex bailout drags down Mexico's sovereign rating?32%
- TaiwanWhat if Taiwan AI-server export boom lifts TAIEX despite Strait risk?32%
- TaiwanWhat if TWD carry rebuilds as Strait tensions normalize lower?32%
- South KoreaWhat if Korea HBM boom lifts SK Hynix and KOSPI to records?32%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippine PSEi rerates as the US alliance anchors stability?32%
- JapanWhat if Japan governance reform sustains a structural Nikkei bull?32%
- IndiaWhat if India emerges as a friend-shored chip-packaging hub?32%
- ChinaWhat if CNH firms to 6.9 as US-China tension fades?32%
- GlobalWhat if Gold breaks $4,000 on reserve and haven bid?32%
- United StatesWhat if Soft-landing easing: disinflation lets Fed cut cleanly?32%
- United States, United Kingdom +1What if Coordinated G3 easing loosens global conditions?32%
- GlobalWhat if Credible disinflation re-anchors expectations?32%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina deregulation wave lifts growth and the Merval?32%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine shale gas displaces LNG imports, flipping the energy balance?32%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine real-rate carry trade draws hot money inflows?32%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil's high real rates power a record carry inflow?32%
- China, BrazilWhat if Brazil soybean export boom captures lost US China share?32%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil passes a credible fiscal framework, calming bond markets?32%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico becomes the top US trade partner on nearshoring?32%
- ChileWhat if Chile copper windfall flips the budget back to surplus?32%
- PeruWhat if Peru copper-export ramp from new mega-mines lifts the sol?32%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey reserve-drain re-rating as net buffers turn negative?32%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt IMF program goes off-track, financing gap reopens?32%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi deficit financing crowds out private Gulf credit?32%
- Turkey, EgyptWhat if MENA Eurobond supply wave tests EM debt demand?32%
- NigeriaWhat if Naira convergence ends the parallel-market premium?32%
- South AfricaWhat if Transnet rail-and-port collapse strands South African exports?32%
- KenyaWhat if Kenyan shilling strength surprises on diaspora inflows?32%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana IMF program success anchors a frontier comeback?32%
- AngolaWhat if Oil-price crash tips Angola into debt distress?32%
- GlobalWhat if Gulf sovereign capital floods SSA infrastructure and FX?32%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa pension-reserve mobilization stabilizes funding?32%
- Kenya, Ghana +1What if SSA SDR re-channeling boosts frontier reserve buffers?32%
- IndiaWhat if RBI builds an FX war-chest past $750bn in reserves?32%
- IndiaWhat if India solar-and-storage build-out cuts the oil-import burden?32%
- Taiwan, VietnamWhat if Vietnam semis back-end FDI deepens chip packaging cluster?32%
- Malaysia, SingaporeWhat if Johor-Singapore SEZ ignites cross-border data-center buildout?32%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia 1MDB-style governance shock revives political risk?32%
- Jordan, IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia copper-smelter ramp lifts refined-metal exports?32%
- China, Indonesia +1What if China stimulus reflation lifts ASEAN commodity exporters?32%
- Indonesia, PhilippinesWhat if Battery-metals super-cycle rewards Indonesia/Philippines nickel?32%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines BSP-led disinflation revives bond and peso inflows?32%
- PolandWhat if Polish RRF cash unlock sends PLN to 4.15/EUR?32%
- Germany, PolandWhat if German recovery upswing pulls Polish exports higher?32%
- Poland, South KoreaWhat if Polish defense-import bill blows out the current account?32%
- KazakhstanWhat if Kazakh oil-export windfall refills the National Fund?32%
- GlobalWhat if Search-for-yield: frontier spreads grind to multi-year tights?32%
- GlobalWhat if EM CDS-cash basis normalizes as liquidity returns to frontier bonds?32%
- ChinaWhat if China grain-demand softening loosens the global feed market?32%
- ItalyWhat if Italy rating upgrade lifts BTPs out of the BBB- danger zone?32%
- United KingdomWhat if UK fiscal rules reform stabilizes gilts without austerity?32%
- GlobalWhat if Permanent debt-ceiling reform removes the recurring US default tail?32%
- United KingdomWhat if UK debt ratio stabilizes as growth surprises and OBR signs off?32%
- GlobalWhat if DM bull-steepener: rate cuts revive housing and risk together?32%
- JapanWhat if Japan's GPIF rotation back into JGBs caps the super-long curve?32%
- United KingdomWhat if UK gilt issuance falls as the deficit undershoots forecasts?32%
- GlobalWhat if DM term-premium mean-reversion as supply and demand re-balance?32%
- GlobalWhat if Low-r* world rewards long duration as growth scarcity returns?32%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed chair is abruptly replaced?31%
- China, Brazil +2What if a China slowdown craters iron ore, copper and coal?31%
- GermanyWhat if Volkswagen closes its German factories?31%
- PortugalWhat if Portugal's far right becomes kingmaker?31%
- HungaryWhat if Hungary's spending splurge breaches EU deficit rules and sinks the forint?31%
- VenezuelaWhat if US sanctions block Venezuela's $5.9bn Citgo sale?31%
- United States, JapanWhat if Orderly yen appreciation as the BoJ-Fed policy gap narrows?31%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if KRW rallies as a Peninsula thaw and chip cycle align?31%
- Japan, Germany +1What if Diversified chip geography blunts a Taiwan scare's market hit?31%
- JapanWhat if Stable yen and resilient chips underpin an Asia soft landing?31%
- GlobalWhat if Goldilocks easing weakens dollar, lifts EM and gold?31%
- ChileWhat if Chile permitting reform unlocks stalled copper projects?31%
- United StatesWhat if Weak-dollar regime fuels a sweeping LatAm FX rally?31%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if PIF foreign-asset returns supercharge Saudi sovereign wealth?31%
- United StatesWhat if Oil windfall lets Gulf central banks ease alongside the Fed?31%
- Saudi Arabia, United Arab EmiratesWhat if UAE-Saudi capital rivalry fragments Gulf inflows?31%
- United States, Turkey +1What if A Fed easing cycle lifts the whole MENA EM-FX complex?31%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey rejoins the EM investment-grade conversation?31%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria gas-to-power buildout ends chronic grid outages?31%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya eurobond rollover failure triggers a funding squeeze?31%
- AngolaWhat if Kwanza strengthens as oil revenue rebuilds reserves?31%
- United States, Nigeria +2What if Fed easing reopens the frontier-Africa eurobond window?31%
- China, South Africa +3What if China stimulus revives SSA commodity-export demand?31%
- South Africa, Nigeria +1What if SSA frontier-equity rally as global risk appetite returns?31%
- South Africa, Nigeria +1What if SSA green-bond market opens a new frontier funding channel?31%
- IndiaWhat if Big-ticket disinvestment (BPCL, banks) shrinks India's deficit?31%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan's IMF EFF stays on track, unlocking tranches?31%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh remittance surge rebuilds reserves and the taka?31%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka's clean restructuring re-rates the credit toward B?31%
- China, VietnamWhat if Vietnam textile/footwear orders shift in from China at scale?31%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam data-center FDI wave feeds AI-server back-end demand?31%
- MalaysiaWhat if Ringgit REER re-rates as repatriation mandate lifts MYR?31%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia subsidy reform earns fiscal upgrade, deficit narrows?31%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia E&E exports boom on global AI-server upcycle?31%
- China, India +1What if Thailand tourism super-recovery hits 36m arrivals?31%
- ThailandWhat if Baht tracks gold higher as XAU rally lifts haven proxy?31%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines BPO-AI automation shock guts services exports?31%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines pivots BPO upmarket to AI-augmented services?31%
- China, Thailand +2What if US tightens rules-of-origin, squeezing ASEAN transshipment?31%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam private-sector liberalization unleashes capex boom?31%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines digital-economy and remittance fintech lift growth?31%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam ascends to upper-middle-income with sovereign re-rating?31%
- GlobalWhat if Uzbekistan upgraded to BB on reform momentum?31%
- Ghana, ZambiaWhat if Frontier default wave: 3+ sovereigns miss coupons in one quarter?31%
- PakistanWhat if Pakistan secures multi-year IMF EFF and re-rated out of CCC?31%
- GlobalWhat if Common Framework grind: a debtor stuck 3+ years in limbo?31%
- GlobalWhat if IMF lending capacity strained as quota review stalls?31%
- GlobalWhat if Domestic-investor base deepens, cutting frontier foreign reliance?31%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya credible fiscal anchor earns positive outlook revision?31%
- GlobalWhat if Liability-management exercises smooth the frontier maturity profile?31%
- JapanWhat if Yen-funded carry book rotates fresh leverage into EM high-yielders?31%
- United StatesWhat if Fed-cut dollar downcycle reopens EM portfolio-inflow taps?31%
- GlobalWhat if Commodity-windfall reserve-rebuild boom lifts EM import cover?31%
- GlobalWhat if Global soft landing powers a multi-year EM total-return cycle?31%
- GlobalWhat if Copper as inflation hedge bids on weak-dollar electrification trade?31%
- United StatesWhat if Fed pivot to cuts ignites a fresh gold breakout?31%
- GlobalWhat if US fiscal commission deal restores the long-bond bid?31%
- United KingdomWhat if UK returns to bond-market grace as fiscal headroom rebuilds?31%
- JapanWhat if BOJ guides a stronger yen, easing imported-inflation pressure calmly?31%
- United StatesWhat if Fed dovish surprise sinks the dollar and ignites a global risk rally?31%
- United StatesWhat if Fed's preferred PCE undershoots, greenlighting a cutting cycle?31%
- United StatesWhat if Cooling wages clear the way for a Fed dovish pivot?31%
- JapanWhat if Japanification of the West: low r*, low inflation, bid bonds?31%
- GlobalWhat if Low-r* gift lets DM sovereigns carry higher debt sustainably?31%
- Germany, European UnionWhat if Aging Europe locks in a low-r*, bid-Bund equilibrium?31%
- ZambiaWhat if a dispute reopens Zambia's debt restructuring?30%
- United States, CanadaWhat if the Bank of Canada cuts far below the Fed and sinks the loonie?30%
- JapanWhat if the BoJ hikes to 1% faster than priced and inflicts large unrealized bond losses?30%
- South KoreaWhat if Peninsula peace dividend reopens Kaesong-style North-South trade?30%
- GlobalWhat if Broad Asia-Pacific peace dividend compresses regional vol?30%
- Netherlands, Ukraine +1What if Winter grid blitz spikes TTF to EUR90?30%
- United StatesWhat if Bull-steepener as Fed cuts into a soft economy?30%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina returns to global bond markets after IMF review pass?30%
- China, BrazilWhat if Brazil iron-ore windfall lifts the real on China restock?30%
- United States, MexicoWhat if Mexico semiconductor assembly cluster anchors North American chips?30%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia fiscal-rule rescue restores the deficit anchor?30%
- PeruWhat if BCRP credibility keeps the sol the calmest EM currency?30%
- TurkeyWhat if S&P lifts Turkey to BB on rebuilt reserves?30%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if UAE sovereign-fund marks hit by a global tech drawdown?30%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if Dubai credit cycle wobbles as off-plan leverage unwinds?30%
- Nigeria, NigerWhat if Niger Delta sabotage cuts Nigerian crude exports again?30%
- South AfricaWhat if Stage-8 load-shedding returns, throttling South African GDP?30%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria gas-export pipeline to Europe transforms the trade balance?30%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh's IMF program review unlocks support, lifts confidence?30%
- ThailandWhat if Thailand fiscal stimulus + tourism revives growth to 4%?30%
- ThailandWhat if Thailand auto-sector decline accelerates as ICE demand fades?30%
- Poland, European UnionWhat if NBP holds high while ECB eases, PLN carry shines?30%
- Germany, HungaryWhat if Hungarian HGB spreads collapse on the funds unlock?30%
- RomaniaWhat if Romania's twin-deficit downgrade tips it into junk?30%
- GlobalWhat if Kazatomprom output guidance cut squeezes uranium?30%
- KazakhstanWhat if Nuclear-renaissance demand drives a uranium supercycle?30%
- GlobalWhat if JPMorgan EMBI rebalance forces tracking-driven frontier selling?30%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier easing cycle begins as inflation falls and currency stabilizes?30%
- GlobalWhat if EM real-rate carry super-cycle pulls in record cross-border inflows?30%
- GlobalWhat if EM total-return carry beats DM credit, pulling pension allocations in?30%
- GlobalWhat if DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain?30%
- GlobalWhat if De-dollarization reshapes EM reserve management and trade invoicing?30%
- GlobalWhat if Local-currency bond markets deepen as EM cuts dollar-debt reliance?30%
- GlobalWhat if Remittance-driven FX stabilization underpins EM consumer economies?30%
- United StatesWhat if Goldilocks easing weakens the dollar and lifts the whole EM-FX bloc?30%
- United StatesWhat if Cheap-oil disinflation lets the Fed cut faster?30%
- United StatesWhat if DXY softens as a crude glut cools US inflation?30%
- GlobalWhat if Gold-silver ratio spike signals deflationary stress?30%
- GlobalWhat if T-bill rollover glut floods the front end, repo backs up?30%
- JapanWhat if Orderly BoJ exit firms the yen and rewards JGB holders?30%
- United StatesWhat if Soft-landing disinflation: Fed cuts into growth, VIX collapses?30%
- JapanWhat if the Bank of Japan ends yield-curve control and hikes hard?29%
- ChinaWhat if China's EV price war triggers a wave of bankruptcies?29%
- Switzerland, DR CongoWhat if Congo grabs higher cobalt royalties from miners?29%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana's cedi slides past 18 as reserves drain away?29%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil hikes its Selic rate to 16% to defend the real?29%
- South KoreaWhat if the Bank of Korea defends the won past 1,600?29%
- ChinaWhat if a second wave of Chinese developer defaults hits Vanke and Longfor?29%
- JapanWhat if Stable BoJ path and reflation pull global funds into Japan?29%
- India, South Korea +1What if EM-Asia bond inflows surge as the war-risk premium fades?29%
- GlobalWhat if Regional détente and chip diversification lift Asian tech broadly?29%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if Peninsula calm and an HBM upcycle drive Korean tech to records?29%
- JapanWhat if Orderly BoJ exit lets the JPY firm without breaking global carry?29%
- United StatesWhat if Stablecoin T-bill demand caps front-end yields?29%
- GlobalWhat if Curve dis-inverts into a steepening expansion?29%
- GlobalWhat if Carry revival as vol collapses post-truce?29%
- GlobalWhat if Coordinated FX-swap lines calm dollar funding?29%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina lifts cepo capital controls without a peso crash?29%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine GDP-warrant payout triggers as growth rebounds?29%
- BrazilWhat if Moody's restores Brazil to investment grade?29%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil tax-reform dividend lifts potential growth?29%
- MexicoWhat if USMCA July-2026 review renewed, clearing Mexico's tariff cloud?29%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico remittance resilience underpins consumption and the peso?29%
- China, PeruWhat if Peru Chancay mega-port turns it a Pacific trade hub?29%
- Argentina, Chile +1What if Andean copper-and-lithium upcycle lifts Chile, Peru and Argentina?29%
- Mexico, Brazil +1What if LatAm real-rate carry basket draws record inflows?29%
- TurkeyWhat if Brent surge widens Turkey's energy-import bill and lira gap?29%
- China, QatarWhat if Qatar locks decades of Asian LNG offtake at premium terms?29%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt subsidy reform sticks, fiscal deficit narrows sharply?29%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi tourism and Hajj economy outpaces the oil cycle?29%
- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates +1What if GCC pegs reaffirmed as oil revenue rebuilds buffers?29%
- Turkey, EgyptWhat if MENA carry trades rebuild as real rates stay high?29%
- Turkey, EgyptWhat if Risk-off shock unwinds crowded MENA carry positions?29%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria tax reform doubles the non-oil revenue base?29%
- South AfricaWhat if Transnet logistics fix reopens South African export volumes?29%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya IMF program stays on track, unlocking disbursements?29%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya finance-bill protests paralyze fiscal consolidation?29%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana disinflation lets the BoG cut and the cedi steady?29%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana gold-for-reserves program lifts the central bank buffer?29%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia FX-market liberalization draws frontier capital?29%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia FX shortage chokes importers despite the float?29%
- AngolaWhat if Angola diversification and IMF discipline cut oil dependence?29%
- ZambiaWhat if Zambia IMF program success cements the recovery?29%
- Nigeria, Kenya +2What if Strong-dollar wave reignites an SSA debt-distress scare?29%
- GlobalWhat if AfCFTA implementation lifts intra-African trade and FX?29%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria attracts hot money as real yields turn deeply positive?29%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa green-energy IPP boom adds gigawatts of supply?29%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria pension-and-savings pool deepens local debt demand?29%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya geothermal expansion cuts the fuel-import bill?29%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia bondholder deal sets a Common Framework precedent?29%
- ZambiaWhat if Zambia becomes a regional power exporter as hydro recovers?29%
- Nigeria, Kenya +1What if Diaspora-remittance boom underpins SSA external accounts?29%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya infrastructure-bond demand deepens local funding?29%
- IndiaWhat if Moody's shifts India outlook to positive, eyes Baa2?29%
- IndiaWhat if Bumper monsoon revives rural demand and FMCG earnings?29%
- IndiaWhat if Falling Brent hands India a disinflation and CAD windfall?29%
- IndiaWhat if India's capex super-cycle crowds in private investment?29%
- IndiaWhat if Brent spike to $110 sinks the rupee to record lows?29%
- IndiaWhat if Monsoon failure spikes India food inflation and stalls cuts?29%
- IndiaWhat if India services-export boom (GCCs) lifts the invisibles surplus?29%
- China, IndiaWhat if India absorbs the largest share of EM dedicated inflows?29%
- IndiaWhat if India IPO and primary-issuance boom deepens equity capital?29%
- IndiaWhat if India joins global bond ESG/green-bond demand at scale?29%
- IndiaWhat if India's terms of trade improve on a soft-commodity world?29%
- IndiaWhat if India's local-currency debt market becomes EM's benchmark?29%
- IndiaWhat if India tourism and aviation boom widens the services surplus?29%
- PakistanWhat if RSF climate facility adds buffers to Pakistan's IMF program?29%
- China, BangladeshWhat if Garment-export rebound widens Bangladesh's trade surplus?29%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh sustains 6%+ growth on demographics and manufacturing?29%
- IndiaWhat if RBI digital-rupee CBDC scales retail and wholesale settlement?29%
- PolandWhat if NBP surprise cuts trigger a zloty carry unwind?29%
- PolandWhat if Polish real-wage boom powers a consumption cycle?29%
- Germany, PolandWhat if Polish credit benefits as eastern-flank fear ebbs?29%
- RomaniaWhat if Romania's credible EDP plan stabilizes the outlook?29%
- Germany, CzechiaWhat if German auto recession drags Czech industry into contraction?29%
- GlobalWhat if Uzbek privatization IPO wave deepens local capital markets?29%
- GlobalWhat if Navoi gold expansion turns Uzbekistan into a top producer?29%
- IndiaWhat if Maldives averts sukuk default via Gulf and India swap lifeline?29%
- GlobalWhat if G20 Common Framework breakthrough cuts restructuring time in half?29%
- GlobalWhat if Value-recovery instruments revive in 3 frontier workouts?29%
- Argentina, EgyptWhat if IMF surcharge reform cuts borrowing costs for heavy users?29%
- GlobalWhat if Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable agrees comparability standard?29%
- GlobalWhat if Rising-star upgrade: an EM sovereign promoted to IG draws inflows?29%
- GlobalWhat if Outlook-revision wave to positive presages frontier upgrade cycle?29%
- GlobalWhat if GBI-EM index inclusion of a new local market draws passive inflows?29%
- GlobalWhat if EM dedicated funds see record inflows on disinflation pivot?29%
- GlobalWhat if Reserve rebuild: frontier import-cover rises past comfort thresholds?29%
- GlobalWhat if Managed float adoption ends multiple-exchange-rate distortions?29%
- GlobalWhat if Remittance surge rebuilds frontier external buffers?29%
- ZambiaWhat if Zambia copper revenue windfall accelerates post-restructuring recovery?29%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt returns to GBI-EM after FX flexibility restores eligibility?29%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina re-accesses voluntary markets after years of exclusion?29%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria FX and fuel-subsidy reform draws frontier inflows?29%
- GlobalWhat if El Salvador IMF deal plus buyback rallies distressed bonds to par?29%
- GlobalWhat if ESG-labeled sovereign issuance from frontiers hits record volume?29%
- GlobalWhat if Crossover investors return to EM, compressing the IG-HY frontier gap?29%
- GlobalWhat if EM ETF creation surge channels passive money into frontier credit?29%
- GlobalWhat if EM real-rate premium attracts global bond tourists?29%
- GlobalWhat if Deepening onshore FX forward market lowers frontier hedging costs?29%
- GlobalWhat if Bondholder collective-action group accelerates a cooperative deal?29%
- GlobalWhat if Deep-haircut deal restores debt sustainability and rallies bonds?29%
- GlobalWhat if IMF DSA upgrade to sustainable averts a feared restructuring?29%
- GlobalWhat if Distressed-debt funds rotate into frontier exit-yield opportunities?29%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier-bond total returns lead global fixed income for the year?29%
- GlobalWhat if EM hard-currency net supply turns negative, supporting spreads?29%
- GlobalWhat if Gulf-anchored sukuk market gives frontiers a deep Islamic funding pool?29%
- GlobalWhat if Carry-to-vol regime shift makes EM the structural funding sink?29%
- GlobalWhat if High-real-rate EM bloc anchors a multi-year carry-allocation shift?29%
- GlobalWhat if Capital-account liberalization unlocks a wave of EM portfolio inflows?29%
- GlobalWhat if GBI-EM index rebalancing redirects passive flows into new entrants?29%
- GlobalWhat if Synchronized EM disinflation enables a coordinated easing rally?29%
- GlobalWhat if Synchronized EM growth surprise pulls dedicated and crossover money in?29%
- GlobalWhat if FDI re-shoring wave anchors EM currencies with sticky capital?29%
- GlobalWhat if EM-FX volatility regime falls, re-rating the carry-adjusted basket?29%
- GlobalWhat if EM credit-spread compression underwrites a currency-and-bond rally?29%
- GlobalWhat if Sovereign-wealth recycling stabilizes a commodity-EM's currency?29%
- GlobalWhat if EM real-rate normalization sustains a durable disinflation-and-FX gain?29%
- GlobalWhat if EM-FX valuation gap closes as undervalued currencies mean-revert?29%
- JapanWhat if Japan lifers anchor the super-long sector at higher yields?29%
- European UnionWhat if ECB activates TPI, slamming periphery spreads tighter?29%
- Germany, FranceWhat if France forms a stable government, OAT-Bund spread re-compresses?29%
- United KingdomWhat if BoE ends active gilt sales, removing a supply overhang?29%
- GlobalWhat if Coordinated DM fiscal restraint shrinks deficits in unison?29%
- GlobalWhat if AI-driven productivity boom outgrows DM debt without austerity?29%
- GlobalWhat if Coordinated CB guidance caps DM term premia and steadies curves?29%
- GlobalWhat if Falling DM term premia revive the classic 60/40 bond hedge?29%
- JapanWhat if Japan's primary-balance target met, sustainability fears recede?29%
- ItalyWhat if Italy's debt ratio falls for a third straight year, BTPs richen?29%
- GlobalWhat if DM fiscal councils gain teeth, anchoring credible deficit paths?29%
- United Kingdom, European UnionWhat if ECB and BoE coordinate orderly QT, sovereign curves stay calm?29%
- United StatesWhat if Fed shifts purchases toward bills to rebuild a short-dated book?29%
- United StatesWhat if Fed pre-commits to a clear reaction-function rule, calming rate vol?29%
- United StatesWhat if Fed adopts a flexible price-level target to recover lost credibility?29%
- South KoreaWhat if Korea NPS pension exhaustion path moved to ~2055, KTB supply jumps?29%
- ChinaWhat if China's demographic drag turns it into a structural deflation exporter?29%
- GlobalWhat if Demographic saving glut compresses the equity risk premium too?29%
- GlobalWhat if Goodhart-Pradhan reversal: aging pushes r* AND inflation UP?29%
- IndiaWhat if Rupee strengthens structurally as India's growth premium attracts flows?29%
- GlobalWhat if US institutional resilience preserves dollar reserve status (good)?29%
- GlobalWhat if a deep payrolls revision reveals a hidden recession?28%
- JapanWhat if Japan's wage talks deliver a 7% inflation breakout?28%
- GlobalWhat if Europe launches a common-defence Eurobond and floods supply?28%
- China, JapanWhat if China falls into a Japan-style balance-sheet recession?28%
- Japan, TaiwanWhat if Taiwan invasion-fear bid lifts gold and the yen as havens?28%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if EU lends EUR140bn against frozen Russian assets?28%
- China, RussiaWhat if Petro-yuan oil invoicing expands in the Gulf?28%
- GlobalWhat if Broad EM-FX rally on weak dollar and trade thaw?28%
- ChinaWhat if CNH internationalization advances under truce?28%
- GlobalWhat if Real-yield repricing on fiscal-dominance fears?28%
- United States, ArgentinaWhat if Vaca Muerta LNG export terminal turns Argentina a gas exporter?28%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil disinflation soft landing re-rates EM equities?28%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico-US energy integration draws private power capital?28%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia oil-investment reopening rebuilds reserves?28%
- ColombiaWhat if BanRep easing cycle revives a Colombian peso carry?28%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia energy-transition FDI offsets oil decline?28%
- ChileWhat if Chilean peso firms as the BCCh eases into disinflation?28%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador security gains revive oil output and investment?28%
- United States, Brazil +1What if South American grain glut pressures global CORN and soy?28%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if PIF lands a landmark AI compute milestone with HUMAIN?28%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi green-hydrogen and solar exports open a new revenue leg?28%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya coffee and tea windfall firms the shilling?28%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana cedi stabilizes as the gold-purchase program scales?28%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia Danantara SWF ignites $900bn investment supercycle?28%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines services-export pivot to global capability centers?28%
- PolandWhat if Poland defense buildout pushes spending past 4.7% of GDP?28%
- AzerbaijanWhat if Azeri gas-export windfall swells SOFAZ assets?28%
- GlobalWhat if Transparent reserve reporting earns frontier a credibility premium?28%
- GlobalWhat if Dollarization adoption ends a frontier's chronic currency crises?28%
- GlobalWhat if Positive-real-rate EM disinflators draw a structural carry premium?28%
- GlobalWhat if Managed-peg break: a defended EM currency forced to free-float?28%
- GlobalWhat if Reserve-accumulation drive rebuilds EM buffers above 150% of ARA?28%
- GlobalWhat if EM real-rate compression rally as inflation falls faster than rates?28%
- ChinaWhat if China stimulus reflates commodity-EM exporters and their currencies?28%
- GlobalWhat if Falling dollar reopens EM hard-currency primary issuance?28%
- GlobalWhat if Reserve-rich EM bloc shrugs off a dollar shock, drawing quality inflows?28%
- GlobalWhat if Broad EM disinflation plus a soft dollar delivers a goldilocks-EM regime?28%
- GlobalWhat if Cheaper grain eases import-country food inflation and FX?28%
- GlobalWhat if Cheap food and fertilizer ease EM inflation and rate-cut path?28%
- GlobalWhat if Falling food-import costs rebuild MENA external buffers?28%
- GlobalWhat if Strong US 30y auction with record indirect bid calms duration fear?28%
- JapanWhat if JGB 30y hits a record as BoJ QT meets debt-funded stimulus?28%
- GlobalWhat if EU joint-issuance breakthrough creates a true safe asset?28%
- GlobalWhat if Synchronized G7 easing cycle steepens curves and lifts risk?28%
- JapanWhat if BoJ rate hikes draw Japanese capital home from US and EU bonds?28%
- GlobalWhat if EU fiscal-capacity deal mutualizes defense and energy borrowing?28%
- GlobalWhat if Tariff cost-push: sticky goods inflation collides with slowing growth?28%
- United StatesWhat if Fed framework review drops average-inflation-targeting for a clean 2%?28%
- Germany, Italy +2What if Southern Europe aging widens the BTP-Bund spread structurally?28%
- United StatesWhat if Aging keeps the Fed's long-run dot anchored near 2.5%?28%
- ChinaWhat if Shrinking global labor force flips disinflation into wage inflation?28%
- Germany, ItalyWhat if Italy's pension bill above 16% of GDP reignites BTP-Bund stress?28%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico remittance shock weakens MXN as US deportations bite?28%
- GlobalWhat if US government shutdown drags on, eroding institutional trust?28%
- ChinaWhat if cash-strapped Chinese provinces start delaying civil-servant pay?27%
- GermanyWhat if Germany scraps its debt brake entirely?27%
- SpainWhat if Sanchez falls and the far-right Vox enters power?27%
- European UnionWhat if frugal states kill joint EU bonds for good?27%
- China, GermanyWhat if China curbs rare-earth exports to EU carmakers?27%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina's planned return to global bond markets falls apart?27%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt fails its next IMF review?27%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey's lira-deposit unwind drains the central bank's reserves?27%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt's pound black market reopens and forces another devaluation?27%
- BoliviaWhat if Bolivia abandons its 25-year dollar peg?27%
- IranWhat if failed sanctions talks collapse Iran's rial past 1.6 million?27%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia devalues the birr again past 180 to the dollar?27%
- United StatesWhat if Fed losses pass $350bn and Congress fights back?27%
- ChinaWhat if the PBOC slashes reserve requirements in an emergency easing?27%
- SwitzerlandWhat if the SNB sells reserves to weaken a soaring franc?27%
- United StatesWhat if reserve scarcity sends overnight SOFR spiking?27%
- ChinaWhat if China's digital-yuan rollout stalls?27%
- GlobalWhat if mBridge lets oil settle around the dollar?27%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina defaults for the tenth time?27%
- GlobalWhat if a wall of frontier-bond maturities hits shut markets?27%
- BelgiumWhat if Moody's downgrades Belgium another notch to A2?27%
- ChinaWhat if Beijing assumes trillions in local-government debt?27%
- GlobalWhat if Moody's downgrades Alberta as oil revenues weaken?27%
- GlobalWhat if China's new-home presales collapse another 30%?27%
- South KoreaWhat if Korean defense-export boom outlasts a Peninsula thaw?27%
- JapanWhat if Yen-carry resurgence funds an Asia-wide equity melt-up?27%
- GlobalWhat if Reserve diversification pushes USD share below 55%?27%
- JapanWhat if BoJ hikes, yen surges and carry unwinds?27%
- United States, European UnionWhat if ECB-Fed divergence lifts EUR toward 1.20?27%
- ChinaWhat if China property stabilization revives EM risk?27%
- GlobalWhat if Risk-off dollar spike on geopolitical shock?27%
- GlobalWhat if Gold-Bitcoin haven bid rises together?27%
- GlobalWhat if USD/Treasuries safe-haven bid on trade shock?27%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina reserve-target miss forces a peso crawling-band break?27%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina widens the FX gap as the blue-chip swap blows out?27%
- Brazil, ArgentinaWhat if Argentina-Brazil trade revival lifts Mercosur growth?27%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil fiscal-credibility scare slams the real?27%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil election-risk repricing hits the real and rates?27%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico defends investment grade as Pemex risk is ring-fenced?27%
- MexicoWhat if Mexican silver windfall as XAG rallies on solar demand?27%
- MexicoWhat if USMCA July-2026 review collapses, triggering a peso shock?27%
- PeruWhat if Peru gold-and-zinc windfall swells mining export dollars?27%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador secures fresh IMF cash, easing the financing squeeze?27%
- TurkeyWhat if Premature CBRT cuts reignite the lira sell-off?27%
- TurkeyWhat if Cheap oil shrinks Turkey's import bill and steadies the lira?27%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt's parallel-market gap reopens as dollars dry up?27%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Gulf FDI to Egypt stalls as deployment disappoints?27%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi non-oil GDP outgrows oil, riyal de-links from crude?27%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi mega-issuance glut widens Gulf credit spreads?27%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if Dubai property cycle turns, off-plan glut hits prices?27%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkish current-account gap re-widens on a gold-import surge?27%
- Turkey, EgyptWhat if Oil-driven inflation relapse re-stresses MENA importers?27%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi non-oil revenue tops 50% of the budget for the first time?27%
- NigeriaWhat if CBN ways-and-means financing reignites naira distrust?27%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa exits the FATF grey list, inflows return?27%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa budget slippage breaches the debt ceiling?27%
- South AfricaWhat if Risk-off EM rout slams the rand as a liquid proxy?27%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana cocoa crop failure guts a key dollar earner?27%
- China, AngolaWhat if Angola China oil-loan margin call drains liquidity?27%
- ZambiaWhat if Zambian kwacha slides as the drought drains export dollars?27%
- ChinaWhat if China demand slump deepens SSA commodity-revenue squeeze?27%
- Ethiopia, ZambiaWhat if SSA Common Framework reforms speed restructurings?27%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya privatization drive narrows the deficit?27%
- South AfricaWhat if Rand carry trade revives as SA real yields stay high?27%
- GlobalWhat if SSA reserve-adequacy improvement broadens FX resilience?27%
- China, Kenya +2What if China debt-relief deal eases SSA bilateral burdens?27%
- South Africa, Nigeria +2What if SSA disinflation wave enables synchronized rate cuts?27%
- IndiaWhat if Festive gold-import surge blows out India's trade deficit?27%
- IndiaWhat if UPI rails go global, deepening India's digital-rupee reach?27%
- United States, IndiaWhat if A surging dollar (DXY) drags the rupee through RBI defenses?27%
- IndiaWhat if Pre-election giveaways blow India's fiscal-deficit target?27%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan reserves rebuild past three months of import cover?27%
- India, Sri LankaWhat if Tourism-led reserve build stabilizes the Sri Lankan rupee?27%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka regains capital-market access post-restructuring?27%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia fuel-subsidy cut sparks inflation spike and unrest?27%
- ThailandWhat if Baht funding-currency status revives as BoT eases?27%
- Poland, UkraineWhat if Poland reconstruction hub status lifts the zloty?27%
- HungaryWhat if EUR/HUF blows past 400 as recovery funds lapse?27%
- HungaryWhat if Hungary's twin deficits keep the forint fragile?27%
- RomaniaWhat if Romania's EU-funds-led investment cushions the slowdown?27%
- CzechiaWhat if CNB easing with stable CZK supports Czech carry-lite?27%
- KazakhstanWhat if Kazakh copper expansion rides the electrification boom?27%
- GlobalWhat if CEE wage convergence erodes the low-cost FDI edge?27%
- ZambiaWhat if Zambia restructuring blueprint copied across 4 more African defaulters?27%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana domestic-debt exchange triggers local-bank capital hole?27%
- ChinaWhat if China insists MDB claims share losses, freezing a restructuring?27%
- GlobalWhat if Pre-emptive restructuring becomes the norm to avoid hard default?27%
- GlobalWhat if EM local-currency debt outperforms hard-currency as USD softens?27%
- GlobalWhat if Gulf sovereign wealth funds anchor frontier eurobond order books?27%
- GlobalWhat if Parallel-market FX gap closes after liberalization in 2 frontiers?27%
- GlobalWhat if FX-swap-line access from a regional anchor backstops frontier liquidity?27%
- GlobalWhat if Recovery-value surprise: defaulted bonds settle above market expectation?27%
- GlobalWhat if Foreign ownership of EM local bonds rebounds on carry revival?27%
- GlobalWhat if Comparability-of-treatment formula agreed, unblocking 3 stalled cases?27%
- GlobalWhat if Bridge-financing facility prevents default during a workout?27%
- GlobalWhat if FX-intervention reserve burn accelerates as the line in the sand holds?27%
- GlobalWhat if Foreign ownership of EM local bonds climbs back toward cycle highs?27%
- GlobalWhat if Real-money allocators rotate from EM hard debt into local-currency bonds?27%
- GlobalWhat if Trade-thaw reflation revives a broad EM-FX inflow rally?27%
- GlobalWhat if Terms-of-trade windfall flips EM current accounts to surplus?27%
- GlobalWhat if EM-FX carry-plus-spread total return tops global fixed income?27%
- United StatesWhat if Fed-dovish pivot revives the EM real-rate carry advantage?27%
- GlobalWhat if Diaspora-bond and remittance fintech deepen EM hard-currency inflows?27%
- GlobalWhat if EM equity-inflow rotation adds a currency tailwind to the bond bid?27%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar top confirmation kicks off a multi-quarter EM-FX uptrend?27%
- GlobalWhat if Countercyclical capital-flow management smooths an EM inflow surge?27%
- GlobalWhat if Deepening EM domestic investor base cushions foreign-flow swings?27%
- GlobalWhat if Carry-trade renaissance as global vol structurally resets lower?27%
- GlobalWhat if EM-FX REER undervaluation plus reform draws a value-allocator wave?27%
- United StatesWhat if Oil-spike inflation scare forces a hawkish Fed hold?27%
- GlobalWhat if Petrodollar recycling shrinks as oil revenues fall?27%
- United StatesWhat if Gold revaluation gambit to backstop US balance sheet?27%
- United StatesWhat if Gold pressured as a Fed-credibility restoration lifts the dollar?27%
- GlobalWhat if Food-and-fertilizer disinflation anchors EM rate-cut cycle?27%
- United StatesWhat if US 30y auction tails 5bp+ as dealers choke on duration?27%
- GlobalWhat if Restored dollar confidence after a US deal reverses the gold bid?27%
- United StatesWhat if Fed misreads a productivity boom and over-eases into hot demand?27%
- United States, ChinaWhat if PBOC launches outright Treasury-bond trading as a new QE-style tool?27%
- South KoreaWhat if Won structurally weakens as Korea's labor force shrinks 1%/yr?27%
- ChinaWhat if China's shrinking workforce forces a structurally weaker yuan?27%
- ChinaWhat if China pension shortfall forces retirement age up amid unrest risk?27%
- GlobalWhat if Secular-stagnation re-rating drives a multi-year quality-growth bull?27%
- GlobalWhat if Retiree dissaving wave drives r* up, ending the bond bull?27%
- GlobalWhat if Healthcare-cost super-inflation from aging entrenches sticky CPI?27%
- IndonesiaWhat if Rupiah re-rates as Indonesia's dividend draws sustained inflows?27%
- GlobalWhat if Social Security fix raises payroll taxes, denting US labor supply?27%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey-style CB-independence erosion: USD funding flight?27%
- United StatesWhat if US debt-ceiling brinkmanship near technical default?27%
- Germany, ItalyWhat if Italy fiscal-populism relapse reopens the BTP-Bund spread?27%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya IMF deal and reform restraint re-tighten spreads (good)?27%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina reform credibility holds: bonds and peso rally (good)?27%
- IndiaWhat if surging oil imports blow out India's current-account deficit?26%
- JapanWhat if Japan debt-funded stimulus spikes the 30y JGB yield past 3.5%?26%
- ChinaWhat if China-US chip thaw lets NVDA resume advanced sales to China?26%
- ChinaWhat if China stimulus + regional calm spark an Asian copper bid?26%
- ChinaWhat if China reflation and Asia détente spark a regional cyclical rally?26%
- Switzerland, MaliWhat if AES common currency launch sparks capital flight?26%
- GlobalWhat if Strong dollar reignites African debt-distress wave?26%
- GlobalWhat if US government shutdown drags into weeks?26%
- GlobalWhat if Gold miners re-rate as bullion holds above $3,800?26%
- ArgentinaWhat if La Nina soy shortfall starves Argentina of harvest dollars?26%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil sugar-and-ethanol windfall as cane crush surges?26%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil pre-salt oil ramp swells the external surplus?26%
- ChileWhat if Chile green-hydrogen buildout draws clean-energy capital?26%
- PeruWhat if Peru's low debt earns a positive rating outlook upgrade?26%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador debt-buyback at a discount cuts the interest burden?26%
- United StatesWhat if Mercosur-EU trade deal ratification boosts regional exporters?26%
- Brazil, Chile +1What if LatAm green-hydrogen export corridor draws clean-energy capital?26%
- EgyptWhat if Brent jump deepens Egypt's twin-deficit strain?26%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi PIF funding squeeze forces a giga-project retrenchment?26%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi sovereign downgraded as breakeven rises above price?26%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya tech-and-infra boom lifts the growth trajectory?26%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia coffee boom narrows the FX shortfall?26%
- GlobalWhat if SSA eurobond maturity wall sparks a refinancing scramble?26%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana oil-output recovery adds a third export pillar?26%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia manufacturing-export zones scale hard-currency earnings?26%
- AngolaWhat if Angola FX-reform float draws portfolio inflows?26%
- IndiaWhat if Record FPI equity outflows force RBI dollar-selling?26%
- IndiaWhat if Strong remittances keep India's current account near balance?26%
- India, PakistanWhat if SBP rate cuts as Pakistan inflation collapses from peak?26%
- PolandWhat if Sticky Polish core CPI forces NBP to stay hawkish?26%
- Russia, KazakhstanWhat if Kazakhstan's Trans-Caspian Middle Corridor scales up?26%
- GlobalWhat if Tunisia salvages IMF program with subsidy-reform compromise?26%
- ChinaWhat if China softens stance: accepts haircuts, not just maturity extensions?26%
- GlobalWhat if SDR reallocation channels $100bn to vulnerable sovereigns?26%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar-debt maturity wall: $400bn EM refi crunch into higher rates?26%
- GlobalWhat if Capital-control liberalization restores frontier market access?26%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia Common Framework deal closes with macro-linked sweetener?26%
- AngolaWhat if Angola diversification narrative earns spread compression?26%
- GlobalWhat if Catastrophe-bond and pause-clause adoption cuts disaster-default risk?26%
- GlobalWhat if Reserve diversification into gold cushions frontier balance sheets?26%
- GlobalWhat if Commodity windfall rebuilds exporter FX buffers and credit metrics?26%
- GlobalWhat if Anti-holdout legislation strengthens orderly-restructuring framework?26%
- GlobalWhat if Comprehensive perimeter deal treats all creditors, restoring credibility?26%
- ChinaWhat if Panda and dim-sum bond issuance opens a renminbi funding channel?26%
- GlobalWhat if Global EM-carry unwind as a vol shock breaks the Sharpe?26%
- GlobalWhat if Weak-dollar reflation lets EM central banks rebuild buffers cheaply?26%
- GlobalWhat if Disinflation plus de-dollarization re-monetizes a local currency?26%
- GlobalWhat if Orderly band-widening lets an EM exit a peg without a crash?26%
- GlobalWhat if EM reserve-adequacy stress cluster slips below the IMF ARA floor?26%
- GlobalWhat if Remittance and tourism surge rebuilds EM external buffers?26%
- GlobalWhat if SDR re-channelling and MDB swaps shore up frontier reserve adequacy?26%
- GlobalWhat if New benchmark methodology broadens the eligible EM-debt universe?26%
- GlobalWhat if EM inflation re-acceleration forces a surprise hiking cycle?26%
- GlobalWhat if Risk-off dollar spike triggers broad EM-FX intervention?26%
- GlobalWhat if Falling DXY and stable commodities deliver an EM real-income boost?26%
- GlobalWhat if Cheaper dollar hedging lifts hedged EM-bond demand from lifers?26%
- GlobalWhat if EM gold-reserve accumulation cushions FX against dollar swings?26%
- GlobalWhat if EM dispersion returns, rewarding fundamentals over beta?26%
- GlobalWhat if EM disinflation re-rates real-money allocations into local bonds?26%
- United StatesWhat if Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yields?26%
- GlobalWhat if Oil-spike real-income squeeze dents consumer demand?26%
- GlobalWhat if Coordinated CB gold sales cap the bullion rally?26%
- GlobalWhat if Gold-mining equities re-rate as margins expand at $3,000+?26%
- Chile, Peru +1What if Metals slump drags commodity currencies into FX stress?26%
- GlobalWhat if Gold-mining sector consolidates as majors hunt ounces?26%
- GlobalWhat if NextGenEU bonds scale into a benchmark euro safe asset?26%
- Portugal, IrelandWhat if Portugal and Ireland run surpluses, periphery converges to core?26%
- GlobalWhat if DM debt ratios stabilize as r-minus-g turns favorable again?26%
- GlobalWhat if Immaculate disinflation: CPI to 2% with no recession, everything rallies?26%
- United StatesWhat if Fed signals a higher neutral rate (r-star), repricing the long end?26%
- GlobalWhat if Powell presser validates the dovish pivot, lighting a melt-up?26%
- United StatesWhat if Fed reinstates a formal 'Fed put' with a conditional easing pledge?26%
- European UnionWhat if ECB cements digital-euro plumbing, calming fragmentation fears?26%
- GlobalWhat if An EM inflation-targeting success story anchors a re-rating?26%
- United StatesWhat if Fed adopts nominal-GDP targeting, overhauling the reaction function?26%
- GermanyWhat if Germany's pay-as-you-go pension forces a tax-or-borrow squeeze?26%
- China, Japan +2What if Aging Asia exports disinflation, pinning regional real yields low?26%
- GlobalWhat if Falling r* revives the 60/40 portfolio's hedge property?26%
- ChinaWhat if China's labor exit removes the global disinflation anchor?26%
- GlobalWhat if Stagnation camp wins: deflation scare drives a duration melt-up?26%
- GlobalWhat if Illinois and New Jersey pension holes trigger a muni-credit scare?26%
- GlobalWhat if Aging shifts the political economy toward inflation-averse hard money?26%
- GlobalWhat if Aging-driven saving glut keeps EM hard-currency borrowing costs low?26%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey orthodoxy payoff: TRY stabilizes, CDS compresses (good)?26%
- GlobalWhat if Institutional-trust rebound compresses the US risk premium (good)?26%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria reform payoff: FX market clears, inflows return (good)?26%
- IndiaWhat if India's small- and mid-cap stock bubble bursts?25%
- United KingdomWhat if Reform UK wins the next general election?25%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina's peso collapses after Milei lifts capital controls?25%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya fails to roll over its 2027 eurobond?25%
- GlobalWhat if Tunisia cannot fund its July eurobond and defaults?25%
- GlobalWhat if sustained deflation in China entrenches a debt-deflation spiral?25%
- JapanWhat if sticky Japanese inflation forces the BoJ into a faster-than-expected hiking path?25%
- South Korea, TaiwanWhat if Asia-Pacific de-escalation revives broad EM-Asia carry inflows?25%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico remittance drop hits consumption?25%
- United StatesWhat if US Treasury buyer base broadens, term premium falls?25%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina secures a fresh IMF EFF augmentation and bridge cash?25%
- United States, MexicoWhat if Mexican peso carry unwind as the Fed-Banxico gap narrows?25%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia's no-new-oil policy hollows out reserves?25%
- ChileWhat if Chile pro-market election outcome re-rates equities?25%
- PeruWhat if Peru political-instability spasm dents investor confidence?25%
- Brazil, ChileWhat if Iron-ore-and-copper twin upcycle powers a Brazil-Chile rally?25%
- Brazil, ArgentinaWhat if Brazil-Argentina energy integration via Vaca Muerta gas?25%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt state-asset sale program draws strategic foreign buyers?25%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi local debt-market deepening lowers funding costs?25%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria reimposes FX import bans to stem naira slide?25%
- South AfricaWhat if GNU coalition fractures, reviving South African policy risk?25%
- KenyaWhat if Brent spike hammers Kenya's oil-import bill?25%
- AngolaWhat if Angola eurobond re-access marks a frontier comeback?25%
- AngolaWhat if Kwanza collapses as oil receipts and reserves dwindle?25%
- NigeriaWhat if Naira eurobond-funded reserve build firms the FX regime?25%
- IndiaWhat if India's debt-to-GDP falls below 75% on growth and reform?25%
- IndiaWhat if India manufacturing PMI leads a multi-year industrial upcycle?25%
- IndiaWhat if Deepening corporate bond market lowers India's cost of capital?25%
- IndiaWhat if India anchors a 'friend-shoring' premium across asset classes?25%
- China, India +3What if Bilateral rollover failure tips Pakistan into a BoP crisis?25%
- China, Japan +2What if Bangladesh special-economic-zone FDI broadens its export base?25%
- Indonesia, MalaysiaWhat if Palm-oil price spike on El Nino drought lifts Malaysia terms?25%
- United States, MalaysiaWhat if BNM holds while Fed cuts, ringgit carry trade revives?25%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam minimum-wage surge erodes low-cost FDI edge?25%
- Germany, PolandWhat if Three negative outlooks tee up a Polish downgrade?25%
- Germany, PolandWhat if German auto recession spills into Polish supply chains?25%
- HungaryWhat if MNB emergency rate hike defends a sliding forint?25%
- HungaryWhat if Hungary's high real rate keeps forint carry alive?25%
- Germany, CzechiaWhat if Czech-German EV-battery supply chain scales up?25%
- KazakhstanWhat if Kazakhstan repeatedly busts its OPEC+ output quota?25%
- KazakhstanWhat if Kazakhstan launches its first nuclear power program?25%
- GlobalWhat if Uzbekistan wins frontier-index inclusion?25%
- GlobalWhat if EM index-weight cap reform redistributes flows from big to small issuers?25%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier dollar-bond new-issue concession collapses on hot demand?25%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier FX stabilizes as global dollar cycle turns lower?25%
- GlobalWhat if De-dollarization push grows local-currency settlement of trade debt?25%
- GlobalWhat if EM carry basket rebuilds as implied FX vol grinds to multi-year lows?25%
- GlobalWhat if Petrodollar recycling shift trims structural dollar demand from EM?25%
- United StatesWhat if EM central banks out-cut the Fed, thinning the carry cushion?25%
- GlobalWhat if Surplus-EM currencies decouple and outperform in a risk-off tape?25%
- GlobalWhat if Local-currency settlement deals trim EM dollar-funding dependence?25%
- GlobalWhat if Basis normalization marks the all-clear for EM dollar funding?25%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar-bloc breakaway lets EM cut rates without sinking the currency?25%
- Chile, Peru +1What if Commodity-currency boom as metals super-cycle lifts AUD and CLP?25%
- GlobalWhat if Stronger EM currencies cushion imported food-price pressure?25%
- Germany, FranceWhat if OAT-Bund spread blows past 100bp on French political deadlock?25%
- United KingdomWhat if BoE backstop standing facility defuses future LDI gilt spirals?25%
- United StatesWhat if Fed institutionalizes faster cuts via a lower asymmetric loss function?25%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC policy paralysis lets a debt-deflation spiral deepen?25%
- United StatesWhat if EM central bank pivots to easing as the Fed cuts, fueling carry?25%
- United StatesWhat if Fed grants master accounts to stablecoin issuers, legitimizing the rail?25%
- SwitzerlandWhat if SNB cuts to zero and resumes FX sales to cap franc strength?25%
- United StatesWhat if Fed nails the pivot timing, cementing a soft-landing legacy?25%
- JapanWhat if Japan's demographic deflation keeps real yields pinned negative?25%
- GlobalWhat if Rising r* meets high debt, igniting DM debt-sustainability fears?25%
- United StatesWhat if Social Security reform deal funds benefits via heavier Treasury supply?25%
- ItalyWhat if Italian PAYG indexation collides with a falling contributor base?25%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico nearshoring labor pull cushions remittance loss (good)?25%
- South KoreaWhat if a post-AI memory glut busts Korea's chipmakers?24%
- ColombiaWhat if a court ruling forces a costly redesign of Colombia's pensions?24%
- GlobalWhat if the US peacetime deficit tops 9% of GDP?24%
- GlobalWhat if Chinese housing starts fall another 25% and drag construction?24%
- GlobalWhat if a Chinese local-government financing vehicle defaults publicly for the first time?24%
- ChinaWhat if China's stimulus bazooka disappoints and reverses reflation trades?24%
- ChinaWhat if China stimulus blitz lifts Asia cyclicals as geopolitics cool?24%
- Japan, South KoreaWhat if Chip-supply diversification cuts SMH's beta to Asia headlines?24%
- ChinaWhat if CNH slides past 7.6 on tariff escalation?24%
- ChinaWhat if BRICS+ expansion and BRICS Pay scale settlement?24%
- United StatesWhat if Fed restarts QE/yield-curve control on stress?24%
- ChinaWhat if China growth disappoints, drags EM and metals?24%
- GlobalWhat if TIPS breakevens widen on tariff inflation?24%
- GlobalWhat if Breakevens collapse as growth scare hits?24%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina dollarizes formally, killing chronic inflation?24%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine carry unwind sparks a dollarization flight?24%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina-IMF deal anchors a multi-year disinflation glide?24%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil coffee crop recovery eases the Arabica deficit?24%
- BrazilWhat if BCB forced to hike again as Brazil inflation re-accelerates?24%
- China, BrazilWhat if China slowdown crushes Brazil iron-ore export revenue?24%
- MexicoWhat if US tariff shock on Mexican autos hits the export engine?24%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia coffee export windfall on a price spike?24%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia loses its last investment-grade rating?24%
- GlobalWhat if LatAm commodity-supercycle redux re-rates the whole region?24%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt inflation falls below 15% as the CBE eases?24%
- EgyptWhat if Zohr decline turns Egypt into a costly LNG importer?24%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if UAE becomes a regional safe-haven for EM capital flight?24%
- QatarWhat if Qatar surplus and QIA scale shrink its sovereign risk to near-zero?24%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria debt-service-to-revenue tips toward distress?24%
- KenyaWhat if Kenyan shilling slides as import cover thins?24%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana domestic-debt exchange aftershock strains local banks?24%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia restructuring talks stall, deepening default?24%
- GlobalWhat if EM carry unwind triggers an SSA frontier-FX rout?24%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa public-wage deal blows the consolidation path?24%
- Angola, ZambiaWhat if Angola non-oil mining (diamonds, copper) cushions revenue?24%
- Nigeria, Kenya +1What if SSA grain-import shock from a global food-price spike?24%
- Nigeria, Kenya +1What if SSA domestic-debt-market deepening cuts FX-debt reliance?24%
- Nigeria, Kenya +1What if SSA sovereign-downgrade cascade on global tightening?24%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia banking-sector opening draws foreign lenders?24%
- AngolaWhat if Angola IMF re-engagement anchors a fresh consolidation?24%
- United States, IndiaWhat if US reciprocal tariffs hit India's pharma and IT exports?24%
- IndiaWhat if Falling import bill flips India to a current-account surplus?24%
- PakistanWhat if Pakistan regains eurobond market access at single-digit yields?24%
- BangladeshWhat if US tariff shock hits Bangladesh's garment-export engine?24%
- India, Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka inflation normalizes, enabling CBSL rate cuts?24%
- United StatesWhat if A weak-dollar EM rally lifts South Asian currencies broadly?24%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam typhoon disrupts northern industrial-zone output?24%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines POGO ban removed as tail risk, sentiment lifts?24%
- PolandWhat if Poland presidential gridlock stalls fiscal consolidation?24%
- PolandWhat if Polish energy-transition capex strains the grid and budget?24%
- RomaniaWhat if NBR burns reserves defending the leu crawl?24%
- GlobalWhat if Uzbek Almalyk copper expansion taps the electrification boom?24%
- GlobalWhat if Uzbekistan emerges as a Central Asian manufacturing hub?24%
- AzerbaijanWhat if Oil crash forces Azerbaijan to defend the manat with reserves?24%
- Poland, HungaryWhat if Global carry unwind hits high-beta CEE FX hardest?24%
- Kazakhstan, AzerbaijanWhat if Middle Corridor boom lifts Central Asia and the Caucasus?24%
- ChinaWhat if China policy-bank debt-for-nature swap unlocks frontier relief?24%
- GlobalWhat if World Bank IDA replenishment record lifts low-income concessional flows?24%
- GlobalWhat if Downgrade cascade: 6 frontier sovereigns cut in a single quarter?24%
- GlobalWhat if Central-bank independence restored, anchoring frontier inflation?24%
- GlobalWhat if Local-currency frontier bonds gain dedicated-index representation?24%
- GlobalWhat if EM-DM spread differential compresses to cycle lows on convergence?24%
- GlobalWhat if Local-currency bond market debut for a frontier first-time issuer?24%
- JapanWhat if Yen-carry unwind into EM as USDJPY snaps on a BoJ surprise?24%
- GlobalWhat if Offshore dollar-funding squeeze hits EM swap lines and basis?24%
- GlobalWhat if Crawling-band defense fails as one-way bets overwhelm intervention?24%
- GlobalWhat if Inflation-targeting credibility lets an EM drop FX micromanagement?24%
- GlobalWhat if Positive EM real-rate gap to DM widens the carry buffer?24%
- GlobalWhat if Swap-line reactivation calms an EM dollar-funding scare?24%
- GlobalWhat if Macroprudential FX toolkit tames EM capital-flow volatility?24%
- GlobalWhat if DXY jumps on an oil-shock dash-for-dollars?24%
- GlobalWhat if Oil-spike terms-of-trade shock hits EM importer FX?24%
- GlobalWhat if Oil-shock inflation flattens the curve via a hawkish hold?24%
- ChinaWhat if Yuan-gold linkage deepens as Shanghai gold pricing power grows?24%
- United StatesWhat if Gold breaks out as inflation expectations resurge?24%
- GlobalWhat if Gold breaks $5,000 in a full-blown debasement panic?24%
- GlobalWhat if Food-price spike triggers cross-EM import-subsidy fiscal strain?24%
- GlobalWhat if Central banks tolerate inflation overshoot to ease the debt burden?24%
- United StatesWhat if Fed ends QT and stabilizes reserves, easing Treasury indigestion?24%
- Italy, European UnionWhat if ECB rate cuts plus TPI backstop anchor a periphery rally?24%
- United StatesWhat if Fed raises its inflation target to 3% to ease the debt burden?24%
- United StatesWhat if Fed cuts straight into a fresh tariff-driven inflation impulse?24%
- JapanWhat if BOJ pauses normalization, re-anchoring a stable, risk-on carry regime?24%
- GlobalWhat if EM central bank's orthodox hike rebuilds shattered FX credibility?24%
- GlobalWhat if EM central-bank credibility wins a sovereign upgrade and cheaper debt?24%
- GlobalWhat if US legislates a federal stablecoin framework, anchoring dollar tokens?24%
- United StatesWhat if A reform-minded Fed Board reasserts independence, firming the dollar?24%
- United KingdomWhat if BoE cuts into sticky UK services inflation, weakening sterling?24%
- CanadaWhat if BoC over-eases as a housing-debt cycle reignites inflation?24%
- GlobalWhat if EM dollarization reform anchors inflation but cedes monetary control?24%
- European UnionWhat if ECB reaffirms inflation-fighting independence, firming the euro?24%
- European UnionWhat if Eurozone aging caps ECB's neutral rate below 1.5%?24%
- GlobalWhat if Aging-driven inflation regime breaks the stock-bond hedge?24%
- GlobalWhat if Aging-driven primary deficits collide with a rising-r* world?24%
- United StatesWhat if Aging entitlements push US mandatory spending past 70% of outlays?24%
- JapanWhat if Japan's GPIF begins drawdown, removing a structural global equity bid?24%
- GlobalWhat if Corporate DB-pension de-risking floods the long-bond market with demand?24%
- United StatesWhat if Aging-driven healthcare costs blow out US fiscal projections?24%
- GlobalWhat if Aging DM bloc's combined pension gap reframes sovereign risk?24%
- India, Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka post-restructuring recovery rewards bondholders (good)?24%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia reform and demographic dividend lift rupiah assets (good)?24%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan program stays on track, external buffers rebuild (good)?24%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt Gulf-backed reform stabilizes pound and spreads (good)?24%
- IndiaWhat if India reform-continuity and demographics extend the growth run (good)?24%
- GlobalWhat if unemployment jumps enough to trigger the Sahm rule?23%
- VietnamWhat if a default wave freezes Vietnam's bond market?23%
- Germany, FranceWhat if France scraps its pension reform for good?23%
- United KingdomWhat if bond buyers strike against the UK Budget?23%
- PeruWhat if blockades shut Peru's biggest copper mines?23%
- Turkey, LebanonWhat if Lebanon's parallel rate re-collapses past 120,000?23%
- NorwayWhat if Norway keeps hiking rates while its peers ease?23%
- ChinaWhat if the yuan breaks 7.5 per dollar and triggers a capital-outflow spiral?23%
- GlobalWhat if Regional de-escalation unwinds the structural gold haven bid?23%
- Brazil, EthiopiaWhat if Horn drought spikes Arabica coffee from Ethiopia?23%
- DR CongoWhat if DRC tantalum and tin squeeze hits electronics?23%
- GlobalWhat if Multipolar reserve order erodes dollar primacy?23%
- United StatesWhat if Sticky inflation forces a hawkish Fed hold?23%
- Japan, SwitzerlandWhat if SNB and BoJ FX intervention reshapes haven flows?23%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador new-oil-block auctions rebuild fiscal buffers?23%
- United States, Brazil +1What if Vaca-Muerta-plus-pre-salt oil lifts Southern Cone exporters?23%
- GlobalWhat if Lithium-price slump deflates the Andean battery-metal boom?23%
- ZambiaWhat if Zambia food-import surge on drought stokes inflation?23%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria security-spending surge widens the deficit?23%
- South AfricaWhat if Rand gaps weaker on a US-rate-shock-driven EM selloff?23%
- IndiaWhat if Twin oil-and-flows shock pushes rupee past 92 per dollar?23%
- India, PakistanWhat if Record remittances stabilize Pakistan's rupee?23%
- India, PakistanWhat if Oil-price spike triggers a Pakistan BoP relapse?23%
- BangladeshWhat if Taka stabilizes as Bangladesh adopts a market-based crawling peg?23%
- India, Sri LankaWhat if Program slippage relapse threatens Sri Lanka's recovery?23%
- GlobalWhat if Cheap-oil dividend eases South Asian importer balances?23%
- VietnamWhat if US–Vietnam deal caps tariff at 20%, relief rally in VN equities?23%
- China, South Korea +1What if Philippines nickel-ore export ban pivots to value-added boom?23%
- Indonesia, Thailand +2What if ASEAN local-bond inflows resume on disinflation and rate cuts?23%
- Indonesia, Thailand +2What if ASEAN climate shock: floods/drought hit rice and exports?23%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam reserve rebuild restores dong stability and carry?23%
- AzerbaijanWhat if Azerbaijan green-energy export pivot draws Gulf capital?23%
- GlobalWhat if EU 2028-2034 budget fight stalls CEE cohesion flows?23%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier rate-hike-to-defend-currency cycle chokes growth?23%
- GlobalWhat if Debt-for-nature swap wave converts $10bn+ across coastal frontiers?23%
- GlobalWhat if EM foreign-outflow air-pocket hits thin local-market liquidity?23%
- GlobalWhat if Sustained dollar weakness funds an EM capex-and-FX upcycle?23%
- GlobalWhat if FX-reserve manager rotation favors high-quality EM local bonds?23%
- GlobalWhat if Twin-deficit dollar erosion structurally lifts the EM-FX basket?23%
- GlobalWhat if IMF-program success stories anchor a frontier-FX stabilization wave?23%
- GlobalWhat if Regional FX-swap network reduces EM reliance on the dollar backstop?23%
- GlobalWhat if Gold flash-crash on margin-call liquidation?23%
- GlobalWhat if Silver outperforms gold as inflation hedge of choice rotates?23%
- GlobalWhat if Silver-gold ratio compresses as both metals enter a bull phase?23%
- GlobalWhat if US debt-ceiling brinkmanship spikes 1-month bill yields?23%
- JapanWhat if JGB 40y dislocation: super-long auction draws collapse?23%
- GlobalWhat if EM central bank diversifies reserves into gold over Treasuries?23%
- ChinaWhat if China's e-CNY scales cross-border, chipping at dollar invoicing?23%
- United StatesWhat if Fed hawkish surprise drives a dollar wrecking-ball across EM?23%
- United States, United Kingdom +1What if DM central banks coordinate dovish guidance in a soft-landing chorus?23%
- GlobalWhat if Inflationary-aging regime crushes the long end, bear-steepens curves?23%
- Spain, PortugalWhat if Spain and Portugal pension drift widens periphery sovereign spreads?23%
- GlobalWhat if A large US public pension cuts its assumed return, exposing the gap?23%
- PhilippinesWhat if Remittance-dependent EM FX wobble on US labor crackdown?23%
- JapanWhat if Japan fiscal-dominance fear steepens JGB curve, weakens JPY?23%
- ChinaWhat if the PBOC lets the yuan break past 7.60?22%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia's nickel bet blows a hole in its budget?22%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh's foreign reserves run dry?22%
- ChileWhat if Chile escalates its lithium royalty on producers?22%
- MexicoWhat if US tariffs snap Mexico's super-peso past 19?22%
- SwitzerlandWhat if Swiss deflation drags the SNB back to negative rates?22%
- JapanWhat if BoJ exit from yield curve control balloons aggregate unrealized securities losses at regional banks?22%
- ChinaWhat if CNH convertibility leap boosts yuan reserve role?22%
- JapanWhat if Yen slides past 165, MoF intervenes?22%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine reform fatigue stalls the IMF program?22%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil debt-to-GDP breaches 90%, threatening the rating?22%
- MexicoWhat if Pemex bailout busts Mexico's budget and rating?22%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia breaches its fiscal rule, spooking COP bonds?22%
- ChileWhat if Chile single-A downgrade on a copper-price slump?22%
- China, ChileWhat if China demand shock collapses copper and the Chilean peso?22%
- PeruWhat if Peru mine-blockade shock chokes copper exports?22%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador returns to bond markets after years of exile?22%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador financing squeeze reignites default fears?22%
- United StatesWhat if LatAm central banks out-ease the Fed, narrowing carry buffers?22%
- United States, MexicoWhat if Nearshoring spreads beyond Mexico to Central America?22%
- Brazil, ArgentinaWhat if Argentina-plus-Brazil reform rally lifts the Southern Cone bid?22%
- United StatesWhat if LatAm orthodox-policy shift broadens the region's reform bid?22%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi non-oil growth stalls as project spending is cut?22%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if NEOM cost overruns force a high-profile project descope?22%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if Abu Dhabi positions as the Gulf's AI-and-capital superhub?22%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria fuel-subsidy U-turn blows the fiscal anchor?22%
- South AfricaWhat if Moody's strips South Africa of its last anchor notch?22%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa coal export ban talk hits Richards Bay?22%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya IMF deal collapses over missed fiscal targets?22%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya liability-management deal averts a maturity wall?22%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana IMF program slips off track post-restructuring?22%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia parallel-birr premium balloons post-float?22%
- AngolaWhat if Angola oil-output decline structurally erodes revenue?22%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya Eurobond buyback signals proactive debt management?22%
- ZambiaWhat if Zambia kwacha rallies as restructuring dividends and copper align?22%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa water-infrastructure failure adds a new growth drag?22%
- IndiaWhat if India reaches single-A composite rating by decade-end?22%
- IndiaWhat if India infrastructure-asset monetization draws global pension capital?22%
- PakistanWhat if Reko Diq and mining FDI re-rate Pakistan's external outlook?22%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh diversifies exports beyond garments into electronics?22%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka growth rebounds as IMF reforms restore confidence?22%
- China, IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia coal price crash hits export and fiscal revenue?22%
- United States, Indonesia +3What if Fed cuts unleash broad ASEAN carry-trade inflow surge?22%
- Thailand, VietnamWhat if Thailand-Vietnam rice-export rivalry pressures farm incomes?22%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia palm-and-coal twin commodity bust hits fiscal core?22%
- Switzerland, PolandWhat if Polish CHF-mortgage payouts squeeze bank capital?22%
- Poland, BelgiumWhat if Poland-Brussels rule-of-law thaw frees all funds?22%
- PolandWhat if Poland credibly hits its EDP consolidation path?22%
- Hungary, RussiaWhat if Hungarian Russian-energy reliance amplifies a gas shock?22%
- China, HungaryWhat if Hungary's Chinese battery cluster scales into exports?22%
- HungaryWhat if New Hungarian government anchors a credible EDP path?22%
- RomaniaWhat if Romania exits IG indices in a forced-selling cascade?22%
- RomaniaWhat if Romania austerity backlash sparks political instability?22%
- CzechiaWhat if Czech Cinovec lithium project anchors EU battery supply?22%
- CzechiaWhat if Czech Dukovany nuclear newbuild lifts industrial orders?22%
- GlobalWhat if Uzbek debut and follow-on eurobonds draw heavy demand?22%
- ChinaWhat if Uzbek green-energy buildout draws Gulf and Chinese capital?22%
- Poland, Romania +2What if Ukraine reconstruction lifts the whole CEE complex?22%
- KazakhstanWhat if Central Asian uranium-and-copper windfall draws frontier flows?22%
- Poland, Romania +1What if CEE green-capex boom lifts industry and clean-energy suppliers?22%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt eurobond rollover stalls as FX backlog scares foreign holders?22%
- MongoliaWhat if Mongolia commodity downturn reopens 2017-style refi crunch?22%
- GlobalWhat if Selective default ratings spike as restructurings cluster?22%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier eurobond market shuts: zero sub-IG deals in a quarter?22%
- GlobalWhat if EM debt fund outflow streak forces redemption-driven selling?22%
- GlobalWhat if EM quasi-sovereigns decouple, trading through the sovereign curve?22%
- GlobalWhat if Reserve drain: frontier import-cover falls below 1 month in 3 economies?22%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier CDS auction settles a default at deep recovery discount?22%
- GlobalWhat if Commodity-price slump guts frontier-exporter fiscal and FX position?22%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar-liquidity drain spikes EM cross-currency basis into year-end?22%
- GlobalWhat if Thin import cover leaves a frontier-EM cohort one shock from a stop?22%
- GlobalWhat if Remittance shock from a DM downturn drains EM current accounts?22%
- GlobalWhat if Commodity-import EMs win as an energy glut cuts the import bill?22%
- GlobalWhat if Onshore-offshore convergence signals an EM regime stabilization?22%
- GlobalWhat if Reserve-rebuild ceiling caps EM-FX upside via FX accumulation?22%
- GlobalWhat if Reserve rebuild lets an EM shift to a cleaner inflation-target float?22%
- IndiaWhat if South-Asia rice-export curbs stoke import-country food unrest?22%
- GlobalWhat if Desert-locust swarms threaten Horn-of-Africa and Asian grain?22%
- GlobalWhat if Bread-price shock sparks street unrest across import economies?22%
- UkraineWhat if Grain-corridor breakdown re-spikes wheat and import-FX stress?22%
- Jordan, EgyptWhat if Food-import bill surge widens current-account gaps in MENA?22%
- GlobalWhat if Subsidy removal plus food spike triggers an EM inflation relapse?22%
- GlobalWhat if A fourth agency strips the US of its last AAA rating?22%
- Germany, Italy +1What if BTP-Bund spread reopens above 200bp on Italian budget clash?22%
- United StatesWhat if Powell presser walks back market easing bets in a hawkish pivot?22%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC engineers a managed yuan devaluation to export disinflation?22%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC tightens prematurely and aborts a nascent recovery?22%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC widens the yuan trading band toward a freer float?22%
- United StatesWhat if EM central bank hikes pre-emptively, out-hawking the Fed?22%
- GlobalWhat if EM central bank gains independence via a new statutory mandate?22%
- United StatesWhat if Central banks slow gold buying as dollar credibility is restored?22%
- United StatesWhat if Restored Fed independence compresses the US term premium?22%
- United StatesWhat if Demographic inflation forces a higher Fed neutral-rate estimate?22%
- ChinaWhat if China local-government pension transfers deepen the LGFV debt strain?22%
- AustraliaWhat if Australia's superannuation cushions its aging fiscal burden?22%
- GlobalWhat if Central America remittance crunch hits NIM-dependent EM FX?22%
- GlobalWhat if US grand fiscal bargain restores the debt anchor (good)?22%
- GlobalWhat if Coordinated 2% billionaire minimum tax eases deficits (good)?22%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico institutional reassurance and nearshoring lift MXN (good)?22%
- United KingdomWhat if UK fiscal-credibility rebuild compresses the gilt risk premium (good)?22%
- GlobalWhat if a bond-market revolt forces sudden US austerity?21%
- GlobalWhat if Europe's plan to replace Nord Stream gas falls short?21%
- China, Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi Arabia starts pricing its oil off the dollar?21%
- ChinaWhat if a nationwide mortgage boycott resurges over unfinished homes in China?21%
- GlobalWhat if deposit runs spread across China's rural banks?21%
- GlobalWhat if Chinese factory-gate prices stay negative for a third consecutive year?21%
- GlobalWhat if China's fiscal package proves far too small to offset the property drag?21%
- United Kingdom, Egypt +1What if Sudan war drives Egypt's external gap wider?21%
- VenezuelaWhat if Sanctions snapback removes Venezuelan barrels again?21%
- GlobalWhat if Strong-dollar squeeze triggers EM-FX stress?21%
- GlobalWhat if Stablecoin crowd-out drains EM bank deposits?21%
- GlobalWhat if Bear-flattener as inflation forces higher-for-longer?21%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador oil-output decline squeezes a dollarized budget?21%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if Mubadala AI compute build-out anchors UAE tech ambitions?21%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey inflation upside surprise stalls the easing cycle?21%
- NigeriaWhat if Oil-price crash guts Nigeria's dollar earnings?21%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana cedi whipsaws on speculative dollar hoarding?21%
- GlobalWhat if SSA terms-of-trade collapse as oil rises and metals fall?21%
- IndiaWhat if Rupee internationalization: bilateral trade settled in INR scales?21%
- United States, VietnamWhat if Vietnam labeled FX manipulator, sparks tariff-FX doom loop?21%
- Indonesia, MalaysiaWhat if Palm-oil price crash guts Malaysian export and fiscal base?21%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia fiscal-credibility downgrade on off-budget free meals?21%
- IndonesiaWhat if BI-independence erosion forces deficit monetization fears?21%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia hits 8% growth as downstreaming multiplier kicks in?21%
- IndonesiaWhat if BI dual-intervention stabilizes rupiah, rebuilds reserves?21%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia social unrest over taxes rattles Jakarta market?21%
- China, ThailandWhat if Chinese-import flood deindustrializes Thai manufacturing base?21%
- ThailandWhat if BoT cuts to weaken baht, exporters and equities rally?21%
- GlobalWhat if BSP easing + remittance inflows stabilize peso, lift equities?21%
- ChinaWhat if ASEAN-China RCEP integration deepens regional supply chains?21%
- RomaniaWhat if Romania Black Sea gas first flow cuts the import bill?21%
- KazakhstanWhat if Uranium spot spike hands Kazatomprom a margin windfall?21%
- GlobalWhat if Uzbek gold-export windfall stabilizes the som?21%
- Russia, Belgium +1What if Azerbaijan becomes the EU's strategic gas-diversification partner?21%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka governance-linked bond coupon step-up disputed by holdouts?21%
- GlobalWhat if IMF program suspended mid-review over missed fiscal targets?21%
- GlobalWhat if Fallen-angel shock: a BBB- EM sovereign cut to HY forces index selling?21%
- GlobalWhat if Currency-peg break: a frontier maintained peg collapses overnight?21%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina reform reversal reignites restructuring speculation?21%
- GlobalWhat if EM real-rate cushion erodes as inflation reaccelerates?21%
- GlobalWhat if Eurobond coupon FX scramble drains reserves at quarter-end?21%
- GlobalWhat if DSA dispute: IMF and bondholders clash over the sustainability anchor?21%
- GlobalWhat if Crowded-long EM-FX positioning flushes in a one-day stop-out?21%
- GlobalWhat if De-dollarization shifts EM deposits back to local currency?21%
- GlobalWhat if Trade-war escalation hammers exporter EM currencies?21%
- GlobalWhat if EM corporate dollar-debt wall meets a strong-dollar refinancing squeeze?21%
- GlobalWhat if Reserve-manager dollar-share cut quietly supports the EM-FX bid?21%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar-shortage spike crushes gold and silver together?21%
- IndiaWhat if Indian gold-import curbs dent physical demand?21%
- GlobalWhat if EM food-importer FX slide amplifies imported grain inflation?21%
- United StatesWhat if US 30y breaks 5.5% on term-premium spiral, not Fed?21%
- GlobalWhat if Stablecoin reserve demand becomes a structural T-bill buyer?21%
- United StatesWhat if Fed cuts too soon: a 'mission accomplished' pivot reignites inflation?21%
- GlobalWhat if Post-Powell chair: a credible inflation hawk reanchors expectations?21%
- United StatesWhat if Post-Powell chair: a dovish loyalist sparks an independence scare?21%
- United StatesWhat if FOMC dissents multiply, fracturing the committee's policy signal?21%
- United StatesWhat if Fed hardens its anti-inflation mandate after a credibility scare?21%
- JapanWhat if BOJ normalization lures Japanese savings home, draining global duration?21%
- European UnionWhat if ECB hawkish surprise: a hold defies dovish market pricing?21%
- United States, European UnionWhat if ECB-Fed divergence drives the euro toward parity with the dollar?21%
- GlobalWhat if Surprise EM emergency hike to defend a collapsing currency?21%
- European UnionWhat if ECB digital euro launch reshapes eurozone payment competition?21%
- GlobalWhat if A wholesale-CBDC FX bridge slashes cross-border settlement risk?21%
- GlobalWhat if Reversal camp wins: bond-bear regime as r* breaks decisively higher?21%
- Germany, FranceWhat if French pension-reform reversal spooks OAT investors?21%
- GlobalWhat if A US city pension shortfall pushes it toward Chapter 9?21%
- GlobalWhat if Public-pension cash-flow-negative shift forces forced asset sales?21%
- GlobalWhat if Aging sovereign-wealth funds turn from net buyers to net sellers?21%
- NetherlandsWhat if Dutch-style pension reform forces a global duration reshuffle?21%
- ChinaWhat if China's thin pension safety net forces high precautionary saving?21%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil's pay-as-you-go pension strain pressures the real and BRL bonds?21%
- GlobalWhat if Aging cuts the US labor-force participation rate, lowering potential GDP?21%
- GlobalWhat if Bipartisan entitlement fix removes a structural fiscal cloud (good)?21%
- GlobalWhat if Cheaper remittance rails boost EM household incomes (good)?21%
- GlobalWhat if US GDP unexpectedly shrinks into a technical recession?20%
- China, Canada +1What if an overvalued housing market collapses in Canada or Australia?20%
- ChinaWhat if China's trust giants freeze $200bn of redemptions?20%
- JapanWhat if the yen panics past 175 to the dollar?20%
- IndiaWhat if the Indian rupee gaps past 100 to the dollar?20%
- MalaysiaWhat if the Malaysian ringgit sinks to its 1998 lows?20%
- GlobalWhat if Bulgaria's euro adoption sparks an inflation backlash?20%
- FranceWhat if a French downgrade reignites bank-sovereign loop fears?20%
- NigeriaWhat if a recapitalized Nigerian bank fails after consolidation?20%
- TurkeyWhat if premature rate cuts send the Turkish lira past 55?20%
- GlobalWhat if Gulf sovereign funds quietly trim their US equity holdings?20%
- United KingdomWhat if the Bank of England cuts rates into sticky inflation?20%
- IndiaWhat if the Reserve Bank of India hikes rates off-cycle?20%
- GlobalWhat if heavily indebted Chinese provinces enter Guizhou-style debt restructurings?20%
- GlobalWhat if falling prices feed into wage cuts and deepen China's demand shortfall?20%
- China, AustraliaWhat if a China hard landing tips Australia into recession?20%
- ChinaWhat if China property-debt deflation drags down regional risk assets?20%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico water crisis throttles northern factory output?20%
- United StatesWhat if Loyalist Fed chair breaches central-bank independence?20%
- Germany, Italy +1What if ECB fragmentation tool tested by periphery stress?20%
- GlobalWhat if Reserve managers rotate from USD into euros and gold?20%
- JapanWhat if Vol spike unwinds crowded carry on geo shock?20%
- GlobalWhat if EM central banks stockpile gold over Treasuries?20%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine midterm setback derails the deregulation agenda?20%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine WTI-linked export hedges lock in oil revenue?20%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil carry unwind on a global EM sell-off?20%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil court-ordered spending blows a hole in the budget?20%
- China, BrazilWhat if Brazil-China currency-swap deepens de-dollarized trade?20%
- MexicoWhat if Pemex output collapse turns Mexico a net oil importer?20%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico judicial overhaul fallout chills nearshoring inflows?20%
- ChileWhat if Chile water-and-strike disruption cuts copper output?20%
- United StatesWhat if Strong-dollar squeeze triggers a broad LatAm FX selloff?20%
- United StatesWhat if Synchronized LatAm rating upgrades reopen the EM IG bid?20%
- United StatesWhat if Guyana oil boom reshapes the northern South American FX map?20%
- Argentina, EcuadorWhat if IMF disbursement wave to LatAm rebuilds regional reserves?20%
- Mexico, BrazilWhat if Mexico-and-Brazil nearshoring-plus-carry double bid lifts EM?20%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey downgraded back toward B on policy reversal?20%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt Eurobond curve normalizes, primary market reopens?20%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana energy-sector (ECG) arrears reignite a fiscal hole?20%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia coffee-export slump widens the external gap?20%
- AngolaWhat if Angola seeks Common Framework relief as buffers vanish?20%
- ZambiaWhat if Zambia restructuring relapse reopens default risk?20%
- AngolaWhat if Angola arrears to oil-service firms signal stress?20%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria insecurity premium keeps oil output capped?20%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya pending-bills arrears expose hidden fiscal stress?20%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana eurobond coupon step-up strains the post-default budget?20%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia conflict-driven spending undermines the IMF program?20%
- AngolaWhat if Angola oil-output miss undercuts a budget built on high prices?20%
- GlobalWhat if SSA dollar-funding freeze hits frontier rollovers?20%
- IndiaWhat if Fiscal slippage stalls the India sovereign upgrade?20%
- IndiaWhat if Defense indigenization turns India into an arms exporter?20%
- IndiaWhat if Global hard-landing drags India despite domestic resilience?20%
- IndiaWhat if Bank-NPL cycle turns benign, freeing India credit growth?20%
- IndiaWhat if India gold-monetization scheme curbs import-driven rupee drag?20%
- China, PakistanWhat if Pakistan taps a Panda bond, diversifying funding to RMB?20%
- PakistanWhat if Pakistan KSE-100 re-rates on stabilization and cheap valuations?20%
- PakistanWhat if Pakistan ratings upgrade to CCC+/B- on program delivery?20%
- India, PakistanWhat if IMF program suspension reignites Pakistan default fears?20%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh ratings outlook turns positive on reform delivery?20%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh banking-sector NPL blowup drains confidence?20%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka ratings upgrade to B- on debt-sustainability proof?20%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka IT and export-services growth diversifies FX earnings?20%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam wins sovereign IG upgrade to BBB- on growth track?20%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia water/power strain caps Johor data-center pipeline?20%
- ThailandWhat if Thailand political-fiscal spiral as caretaker cabinet paralyzes?20%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines twin deficits widen, sovereign outlook cut?20%
- PolandWhat if NBP verbal intervention caps an overshooting zloty?20%
- China, HungaryWhat if Hungary's Eastern-Opening FDI pivot disappoints?20%
- Hungary, European UnionWhat if Forint snaps higher on a dovish ECB and risk-on tape?20%
- Hungary, BelgiumWhat if Hungary EU-convergence trade lifts Budapest equities?20%
- RomaniaWhat if Leu crawl breaks, RON devalues toward 5.40/EUR?20%
- Germany, RomaniaWhat if Romania defends its IG rating with real consolidation?20%
- CzechiaWhat if Czechia keeps the lowest CEE debt and tight spreads?20%
- Russia, KazakhstanWhat if Tenge slides as oil weakens and the ruble drags it down?20%
- KazakhstanWhat if Kazakhstan upgraded to IG on a fund-backed balance sheet?20%
- China, KazakhstanWhat if Kazakhstan attracts Western critical-minerals capital?20%
- GlobalWhat if CEE rate-cut divergence reshapes regional FX leadership?20%
- Poland, RomaniaWhat if CEE defense-spending surge widens regional deficits?20%
- European UnionWhat if Eurozone-accession momentum lifts a CEE convergence laggard?20%
- GlobalWhat if Sudden stop: foreign outflows from EM local debt hit crisis pace?20%
- GlobalWhat if Capital controls imposed to stem frontier outflows trap foreign holders?20%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt local T-bill yields spike as carry traders demand higher premium?20%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria oil-output shortfall reopens external-financing gap?20%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar-smile melt-up drains EM FX as both tails bid the buck?20%
- GlobalWhat if Capital-control imposition walls off an EM to stop the bleed?20%
- GlobalWhat if Capital controls relaxed in stages as confidence returns?20%
- GlobalWhat if Foreign-positioning capitulation drives an EM local-bond yield spike?20%
- GlobalWhat if EM real-yield collapse as cuts outrun disinflation erodes carry?20%
- GlobalWhat if EM inflation upside surprise reignites pass-through fears?20%
- GlobalWhat if Coordinated EM intervention sterilizes a synchronized depreciation?20%
- GlobalWhat if Terms-of-trade shock widens EM twin deficits and FX vulnerability?20%
- United StatesWhat if Reserve fire-sale of Treasuries by EMs lifts US yields and the dollar?20%
- GlobalWhat if Capital-flow boom-bust cycle leaves an EM overheated then exposed?20%
- GlobalWhat if FX-intervention transparency reform calms speculative EM pressure?20%
- GlobalWhat if Real-yield collapse on growth scare ignites gold?20%
- GlobalWhat if Gold and the dollar rise together in a stagflationary haven bid?20%
- JapanWhat if BoJ stealth taper of JGB buying jolts the long end?20%
- Italy, European UnionWhat if ECB caps fragmentation early, periphery spreads never break out?20%
- United States, United Kingdom +1What if Coordinated DM QT pause stabilizes long-end yields globally?20%
- GlobalWhat if QT 'air pocket' spikes SOFR as reserves slip below ample?20%
- United StatesWhat if Hot core CPI forces the Fed to pause an in-progress cutting cycle?20%
- United StatesWhat if Fed 'last-mile' stubbornness keeps policy too tight too long?20%
- United StatesWhat if Fed balance-sheet losses spark a political solvency row?20%
- JapanWhat if BOJ overshoots tightening and tips Japan back into deflation?20%
- United StatesWhat if Fed embraces tokenized Treasuries for collateral, deepening liquidity?20%
- United StatesWhat if Fed governor confirmation fight injects policy-path uncertainty?20%
- GlobalWhat if Global central-bank gold buying accelerates on dollar-trust erosion?20%
- United StatesWhat if Fed greenlights bank capital-rule relief, easing credit conditions?20%
- United StatesWhat if Fed cuts but long yields rise as a term-premium 'conundrum' bites?20%
- United StatesWhat if Independence-loss premium steepens the US curve and bids gold?20%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC stealth tightening via fixing blunts the global reflation trade?20%
- JapanWhat if BOJ becomes the swing factor in global duration as it exits ZIRP?20%
- GlobalWhat if Benefit-cut scare hits 67m beneficiaries, jolting consumer confidence?20%
- RussiaWhat if Russia's aging plus war costs strain its pension obligations?20%
- GlobalWhat if Pension-fund flight from equities into bonds hits stock valuations?20%
- GreeceWhat if Greece's pension legacy re-tightens its fiscal space?20%
- South KoreaWhat if Korea's NPS faces a politicized contribution-hike standoff?20%
- CanadaWhat if Canada's CPP stays solid, a rare funded-pension bright spot?20%
- GlobalWhat if A sovereign raises retirement age, easing its long-run debt path?20%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela normalization and return relieve regional strain (good)?20%
- GlobalWhat if US entitlement-funding cliff steepens long-end yields?20%
- GlobalWhat if East Africa stability dividend lifts frontier growth (good)?20%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed restarts quantitative easing?19%
- SwitzerlandWhat if the Swiss National Bank returns to negative rates?19%
- PhilippinesWhat if a remittance collapse hits the Philippine economy?19%
- European UnionWhat if a hawk wins the fight for the ECB presidency?19%
- HungaryWhat if Hungary fast-tracks its way into the euro?19%
- BoliviaWhat if Bolivia misses a coupon and tips into default?19%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan's IMF bailout stalls and the rupee tumbles?19%
- AustraliaWhat if sticky inflation forces surprise back-to-back RBA hikes?19%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador defaults yet again?19%
- ChinaWhat if Vanke defaults and shatters China's state-backstop assumption?19%
- GlobalWhat if China's LGFV bond market freezes on prohibitive yields?19%
- ChinaWhat if regulators force sweeping consolidation of China's small lenders?19%
- ChinaWhat if capital flight overwhelms China's controls and drains FX reserves?19%
- ChinaWhat if China's economy hard-lands at around 3% growth?19%
- China, South Africa +3What if a China hard landing inflicts terms-of-trade shocks on EM commodity exporters?19%
- Hong KongWhat if Hong Kong home prices fall 45% from peak?19%
- GlobalWhat if Chinese developer commercial-paper defaults cascade to thousands of suppliers?19%
- China, JapanWhat if a deeper China slowdown slashes Japanese machinery and capital-goods exports?19%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Brent near $60 widens Saudi Arabia's budget deficit and forces a debt surge?19%
- JapanWhat if Yen normalization reverses a decade of JPY-funded global carry?19%
- South KoreaWhat if Memory-chip glut pressures SK Hynix despite a Korea peace?19%
- Saudi Arabia, IsraelWhat if Normalization re-rates Tadawul and TASE?19%
- United StatesWhat if Inflation re-acceleration forces a hawkish surprise?19%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina slips back toward default as reserves drain?19%
- United States, MexicoWhat if DXY surge on Fed hawkish pivot squeezes the peso?19%
- ChileWhat if Chile royalty-and-tax hike deters new mining investment?19%
- PeruWhat if Peru illegal-mining surge undermines formal gold exports?19%
- ChinaWhat if China hard-landing crushes LatAm commodity exporters?19%
- Brazil, ColombiaWhat if Coffee-and-sugar price spike lifts Brazil and Colombia FX?19%
- Chile, PeruWhat if Chile-Peru copper-strike double shock spikes the metal?19%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Sustained cheap oil strains the Saudi riyal peg debate?19%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt FDI pipeline broadens beyond the Gulf to Europe and Asia?19%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria food-import FX squeeze deepens an inflation crisis?19%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya drought slashes tea-and-coffee export dollars?19%
- Kenya, Ethiopia +1What if SSA climate-shock cluster (drought + floods) dents growth and FX?19%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria power-tariff shock stokes inflation and unrest risk?19%
- China, IndiaWhat if FPI 'sell India, buy China' rotation pressures NIFTY?19%
- IndiaWhat if Coal and LNG import spike widens India's energy trade gap?19%
- IndiaWhat if Offshore NDF speculation forces RBI to defend the rupee?19%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan rupee free-fall as reserves drop below one month?19%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan growth recovers to 4% as stabilization takes hold?19%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh inflation cools, opening room for rate cuts?19%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh LDC graduation re-rates its development trajectory?19%
- Sri LankaWhat if Port and logistics FDI re-rates Sri Lanka's external outlook?19%
- GlobalWhat if A broad EM-FX selloff hits all South Asian currencies at once?19%
- PakistanWhat if Pakistan IT-export and freelancer boom adds a new dollar stream?19%
- China, India +2What if Thailand competitiveness erosion as China+1 bypasses it?19%
- China, VietnamWhat if Vietnam US-tech-FDI chill as tariff/transshipment fight drags?19%
- Poland, UkraineWhat if Polish farmer-and-trucker blockade snarls EU trade?19%
- PolandWhat if Polish TTF-linked power costs squeeze heavy industry?19%
- RomaniaWhat if Leu stability and falling CPI revive Romanian carry?19%
- CzechiaWhat if Sticky Czech services CPI delays CNB cuts?19%
- CzechiaWhat if Czech energy-cost relief revives heavy industry?19%
- AzerbaijanWhat if Azeri manat peg buckles in a 2015-style step-devaluation?19%
- AzerbaijanWhat if Azerbaijan upgraded as SOFAZ buffers external risk?19%
- AzerbaijanWhat if Azeri post-Karabakh reconstruction lifts non-oil growth?19%
- Poland, Romania +1What if CEE fiscal consolidation wave re-rates regional credit?19%
- GlobalWhat if Synchronized CEE easing compresses the carry trade?19%
- Poland, HungaryWhat if CEE local-bond inflows deepen on index-weight gains?19%
- UkraineWhat if EU enlargement momentum re-rates the CEE periphery?19%
- China, India +2What if Pakistan rolls maturity wall only via emergency bilateral deposits?19%
- GlobalWhat if Maldives sukuk default risk spikes on reserve-cover collapse?19%
- GlobalWhat if Coercive exit-consent exchange strips bondholder protections?19%
- GlobalWhat if Single frontier default re-prices the entire CCC eurobond complex?19%
- GlobalWhat if Parallel-market FX gap blows past 50%, signaling devaluation ahead?19%
- GlobalWhat if Swap-line expiry leaves a frontier exposed to a funding cliff?19%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan IMF tranche delayed over circular-debt energy reforms?19%
- China, AngolaWhat if Angola oil-collateralized China loans force a quiet rescheduling?19%
- GlobalWhat if Maturity-wall bunching: 2026-27 frontier redemptions cluster dangerously?19%
- GlobalWhat if Coordinated frontier intervention fails to halt currency slide?19%
- GlobalWhat if Hidden FX swaps inflate headline reserves, NIR gap exposed?19%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier FX forward points blow out, signaling dollar funding stress?19%
- GlobalWhat if Local-law versus foreign-law bond split widens recovery dispersion?19%
- GlobalWhat if Reprofiling-only deal disappoints holders expecting principal relief?19%
- GlobalWhat if EM-carry crash on a synchronized DM rate-vol blowout?19%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar-shortage doom-loop forces synchronized EM reserve liquidation?19%
- GlobalWhat if Index-inclusion front-running lifts an EM ahead of formal entry?19%
- ChinaWhat if China-growth disappointment drags commodity-EM currencies lower?19%
- GlobalWhat if DXY break above cycle highs forces a defensive EM rate-hike wave?19%
- GlobalWhat if EM-FX volatility shock breaks the low-vol carry consensus?19%
- GlobalWhat if EM-FX correlation spikes to one, killing diversification benefits?19%
- GlobalWhat if FX forward-book losses force an EM central bank into a credibility hit?19%
- GlobalWhat if Imported-inflation relapse forces EM hikes and FX defense at once?19%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier-EM reserve depletion forces a clustered IMF-program wave?19%
- GlobalWhat if Strong dollar surge knocks copper as macro deleveraging hits?19%
- GlobalWhat if De-dollarization stall sends gold into a deep correction?19%
- United StatesWhat if Foreign reserve flight out of Treasuries lifts the term premium?19%
- Germany, SpainWhat if Spain outgrows its deficit, Bono richens toward core?19%
- United Kingdom, European UnionWhat if Fiscal-dominance regime shift un-anchors DM breakevens?19%
- GermanyWhat if German debt-brake reform unlocks Bund supply and investment?19%
- GlobalWhat if Wage-price spiral: catch-up pay demands un-anchor core inflation?19%
- European UnionWhat if Eurozone disinflation undershoot: ECB cuts as core slides under 2%?19%
- GlobalWhat if EM disinflation easing wave: LatAm and Asia central banks cut early?19%
- GlobalWhat if Expectations re-anchoring: survey and market gauges return to 2%?19%
- GlobalWhat if Synchronized DM easing cycle: coordinated cuts lift global liquidity?19%
- GlobalWhat if Credibility-restored bond rally: anchored expectations re-rate duration?19%
- United StatesWhat if Fed over-tightens on a flawed CPI signal and breaks credit?19%
- JapanWhat if BOJ hikes faster than markets price, snapping the yen carry trade?19%
- United States, JapanWhat if BOJ-Fed policy divergence widens, supercharging the yen carry trade?19%
- Italy, Spain +1What if ECB activates the TPI to crush a periphery spread blow-out?19%
- European UnionWhat if ECB over-eases and reignites eurozone services inflation?19%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC shifts to a stronger yuan-fixing regime to curb outflows?19%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC defends the yuan with offshore liquidity squeeze and bill sales?19%
- ChinaWhat if PBOC credibility erodes as half-measures fail to stop deflation?19%
- GlobalWhat if EM central bank burns reserves defending an indefensible peg?19%
- GlobalWhat if EM hiking surprise crushes a crowded local-rates receiver trade?19%
- GlobalWhat if EM fiscal-monetary clash forces debt monetization and FX collapse?19%
- United StatesWhat if Fed denies a master account, freezing a crypto-bank's settlement?19%
- United StatesWhat if Fed's preferred PCE re-accelerates, killing the cut narrative?19%
- United StatesWhat if Fed forward-guidance error wrong-foots the entire rates market?19%
- United StatesWhat if US Fed-independence scare lifts term premium, gold and BTC?19%
- United KingdomWhat if A Truss-style bond-vigilante moment forces a fiscal U-turn?19%
- GlobalWhat if Pro-growth state policy reverses outmigration, firms muni credit (good)?19%
- GlobalWhat if mass strikes and unrest paralyse a major economy?18%
- GlobalWhat if collapsing trust in institutions drives capital into hard assets?18%
- South KoreaWhat if Korea's record household debt forces a painful reckoning?18%
- FranceWhat if the far-right National Rally takes power in Paris?18%
- GlobalWhat if the EU's first big bank bail-in wipes out bondholders?18%
- European UnionWhat if the ECB triggers its anti-fragmentation bond-buying tool?18%
- JapanWhat if a surprise BOJ hike to 1.5% detonates the carry trade?18%
- ChinaWhat if the PBOC devalues the yuan past 7.5 to the dollar?18%
- United KingdomWhat if the Bank of England speeds up gilt sales into a fragile market?18%
- France, PakistanWhat if Pakistan exits its IMF program and defaults?18%
- GlobalWhat if Senegal's restructuring talks break down?18%
- GlobalWhat if the Maldives forces the first sovereign sukuk haircut?18%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil abandons its fiscal anchor?18%
- United StatesWhat if US 10-year Treasury yields break above 5% on hot inflation and heavy supply?18%
- ChinaWhat if Chinese home prices fall 30% from their 2021 peak?18%
- GlobalWhat if a Zhongzhi-style shadow-bank conglomerate collapses in China?18%
- ChinaWhat if a yuan devaluation exports Chinese deflation to the rest of the world?18%
- GlobalWhat if Chinese consumer confidence stays near record lows for years?18%
- China, GermanyWhat if collapsing Chinese demand and EV competition hammer German industry?18%
- ChinaWhat if China's EV price war collapses auto manufacturer margins across the sector?18%
- JapanWhat if the BoJ formally abandons its yield ceiling and 10-year JGB yields gap toward 1.5%?18%
- JapanWhat if Japan's exit from yield-curve control proves disorderly, with repeated yield overshoots?18%
- JapanWhat if Japanese bank margins stay structurally depressed even as rates rise?18%
- JapanWhat if the BoJ hikes faster than the market prices and abruptly reprices the JGB curve?18%
- IndiaWhat if rapid growth in Indian unsecured personal loans sours and triggers a delinquency cascade?18%
- CanadaWhat if broad US tariffs on Canadian autos, steel and energy tip Canada into recession?18%
- SwitzerlandWhat if Swiss too-big-to-fail reform forces UBS to hold $20-24 billion of extra capital?18%
- JapanWhat if BoJ surprise hike snaps USDJPY and unwinds the yen carry?18%
- JapanWhat if BoJ QT + heavy issuance steepen the JGB curve, hit global duration?18%
- NetherlandsWhat if Mild winter and full storage sink TTF to EUR20?18%
- Germany, UkraineWhat if German fiscal bazooka funds Ukraine and rearmament?18%
- European UnionWhat if ECB cuts as a peace-driven disinflation takes hold?18%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey orthodoxy revives, lira stabilizes?18%
- DR CongoWhat if Eastern Congo war triggers a cobalt export shock?18%
- GlobalWhat if Bitcoin enters sovereign reserve baskets?18%
- United StatesWhat if Tariff-driven inflation forces Fed back to hikes?18%
- GlobalWhat if Plaza-style accord engineers a weaker dollar?18%
- GlobalWhat if Silver squeeze as industrial and haven demand collide?18%
- United StatesWhat if Fed loses inflation-expectations anchor?18%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine bank-deposit run on renewed peso distrust?18%
- MexicoWhat if US mass deportations cut Mexican remittances and consumption?18%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico's widening deficit prompts a negative outlook?18%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico water scarcity throttles northern factory expansion?18%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia Ecopetrol dividend cut hits the budget and COP?18%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia populist agenda spooks foreign bond holders?18%
- PeruWhat if Peru downgraded as chronic political churn erodes governance?18%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador Brent slump drains a dollarized economy's lifeline?18%
- GlobalWhat if LatAm pink-tide fiscal slippage widens regional spreads?18%
- Mexico, BrazilWhat if VIX spike unwinds crowded LatAm carry on a global shock?18%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt forced into a fourth devaluation in three years?18%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt inflation re-accelerates above 30% post-devaluation?18%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt dropped from GBI-EM again as liquidity dries up?18%
- United Kingdom, Turkey +1What if EM contagion from a Turkey wobble spills to Egypt's pound?18%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa NHI and SOE bailouts crowd out the budget?18%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia import-cover crisis forces FX rationing?18%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya shilling overshoot on syndicated-loan repayment?18%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana election-cycle spending reopens the deficit hole?18%
- GlobalWhat if SSA political-risk cluster (elections, coups) spooks investors?18%
- United StatesWhat if G-sec curve bear-steepens as state-bond (SDL) supply floods?18%
- IndiaWhat if India CPI re-acceleration forces a surprise RBI hike?18%
- IndiaWhat if Unsecured-retail-credit blow-up forces RBI macroprudential brake?18%
- IndiaWhat if Slowing urban consumption signals a soft patch for NIFTY?18%
- India, PakistanWhat if Political instability derails Pakistan's reform agenda?18%
- PakistanWhat if Energy-sector circular debt chokes Pakistan's recovery?18%
- BangladeshWhat if Western recession slashes Bangladesh apparel orders?18%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh reserves slide forces taka devaluation?18%
- BangladeshWhat if Political-transition turmoil unsettles Bangladesh markets?18%
- India, Sri LankaWhat if Oil-and-growth shock drains Sri Lanka's fragile reserves?18%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan import-cover slips below 6 weeks, reviving crisis pricing?18%
- India, Vietnam +1What if Garment-buyer order shift to Vietnam dents Bangladesh exports?18%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam property-bond rollover wall reignites credit stress?18%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippine peso breaks past 60 on BoP and import-bill stress?18%
- Indonesia, Thailand +3What if US reciprocal-tariff wave hits all five ASEAN exporters?18%
- IndonesiaWhat if Dollar surge + risk-off triggers ASEAN FX contagion?18%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines BPO collapse spills into property and banks?18%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia EV-FDI disappoints as battery glut deters investment?18%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam grid bottleneck stalls clean-energy and DC ambitions?18%
- China, ThailandWhat if Thai baht slump as tourism arrivals miss on China pullback?18%
- PolandWhat if Zloty hits a 5-year high as CEE carry leads EM?18%
- CzechiaWhat if TTF spike hammers energy-intensive Czech manufacturing?18%
- KazakhstanWhat if NBK reserve windfall lets the tenge appreciate?18%
- KazakhstanWhat if Kashagan output step-up lifts Kazakh export capacity?18%
- AzerbaijanWhat if Azeri ACG oil decline pressures the budget?18%
- AzerbaijanWhat if Azerbaijan shifts to a managed-float to relieve peg stress?18%
- Romania, HungaryWhat if Dollar downcycle supercharges CEE and frontier carry?18%
- Poland, Romania +1What if Sticky CEE inflation keeps regional real rates attractive?18%
- China, FranceWhat if Paris Club relevance fades as China and Gulf creditors dominate?18%
- GlobalWhat if Split-rating arbitrage: one agency keeps IG, others cut to HY?18%
- GlobalWhat if Local-currency curve inversion signals frontier hard landing?18%
- GlobalWhat if Remittance shock from host-economy slowdown widens frontier deficits?18%
- GlobalWhat if El Salvador Bitcoin-backed bond complicates IMF program design?18%
- GlobalWhat if EM CDS basis blows out as cash bonds lag synthetic protection?18%
- GlobalWhat if Crossover exodus: DM funds dump EM as home-market yields beckon?18%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier index expansion adds 4 new sub-Saharan issuers?18%
- GlobalWhat if Domestic-debt-only restructuring spares external bonds but hits banks?18%
- GlobalWhat if Leveraged EM-carry deleveraging cascades through prime-broker margin?18%
- GlobalWhat if Carry crash spreads from one high-beta EM funder to the whole bloc?18%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria's naira re-floats as the official-parallel gap reopens?18%
- GlobalWhat if Short-term external-debt rollover wall stresses EM reserve adequacy?18%
- GlobalWhat if Benchmark exclusion forces forced-selling out of an EM local market?18%
- GlobalWhat if FX-hedging-cost spike makes EM local debt uneconomic for foreigners?18%
- GlobalWhat if FDI retrenchment removes the sticky-capital floor under EM-FX?18%
- GlobalWhat if Oil-price spike batters commodity-importer EM currencies?18%
- United StatesWhat if Reserve-asset diversification by EMs trims structural Treasury demand?18%
- GlobalWhat if EM sovereign-spread blowout reprices the whole local-FX complex?18%
- GlobalWhat if Commodity-price crash hollows out a producer-EM's FX earnings?18%
- GlobalWhat if EM equity-outflow shock compounds local-bond selling on the FX?18%
- GlobalWhat if Cross-currency basis inversion signals an EM dollar-funding crunch?18%
- GlobalWhat if Shallow local investor base leaves an EM at the mercy of foreigners?18%
- GlobalWhat if Global vol regime break ends the EM carry party abruptly?18%
- SwitzerlandWhat if Swiss-refinery bottleneck distorts global gold bar flows?18%
- GlobalWhat if US net interest outlays top defense, crowding-out fear bites?18%
- JapanWhat if BoJ YCC exit overshoots, JGB yields gap and yen carry snaps?18%
- JapanWhat if Yen-carry unwind from JGB shock drains global duration?18%
- Germany, FranceWhat if France loses a notch as deficit overshoots EU limits again?18%
- ItalyWhat if Italian sovereign-bank doom loop reignites as BTP losses mount?18%
- Italy, European UnionWhat if ECB withholds PEPP flexibility, periphery fragmentation returns?18%
- United KingdomWhat if UK gilt crisis 2.0: unfunded package sends 30y +150bp?18%
- GlobalWhat if Gold dethrones bonds as the DM reserve-haven of choice?18%
- GlobalWhat if US 'twin deficits' scare drives a simultaneous bond and dollar sell-off?18%
- United StatesWhat if US government shutdown delays data, bond market trades blind?18%
- GlobalWhat if DM curve bear-flattens as CBs fight inflation into a debt wall?18%
- Germany, France +1What if Bund safe-haven bid surges as DM fiscal fears favor German paper?18%
- United StatesWhat if Fiscal-dominance inflation: deficits override the Fed, breakevens climb?18%
- GlobalWhat if Duration rally bull market: yields fall, long bonds return double digits?18%
- GlobalWhat if Orthodoxy-reform disinflation: credible regime tames runaway prices?18%
- United StatesWhat if Fed holds too long: restrictive policy tips the US into a hard landing?18%
- United StatesWhat if Fed forced to monetize deficits as fiscal dominance takes hold?18%
- United StatesWhat if Fed lets the curve re-steepen via active long-end bond sales?18%
- European UnionWhat if ECB ends APP/PEPP reinvestments, exposing periphery to fragmentation?18%
- GlobalWhat if EM central-bank credibility loss as a government overrides the board?18%
- GlobalWhat if A major economy launches a retail CBDC, jolting bank deposits?18%
- United StatesWhat if US legally bars a Fed retail CBDC over surveillance concerns?18%
- GlobalWhat if Sticky global services inflation forces central banks to re-tighten?18%
- United KingdomWhat if A UK LDI-style pension shock resurfaces under rising long yields?18%
- GlobalWhat if Ratings agency flags aging-driven debt path, dings a DM sovereign?18%
- GlobalWhat if Pension dis-saving thins demand for ultra-long government bonds?18%
- GlobalWhat if US debt-ceiling fight weaponizes Social Security payment timing?18%
- Colombia, Peru +1What if Venezuela migration wave strains Colombia and Peru fiscally?18%
- United KingdomWhat if UK unfunded giveaway revives gilt-vigilante pressure?18%
- MexicoWhat if Remittance-tax proposal threatens EM dollar inflows?18%
- ChinaWhat if Vanke defaults outright and Beijing's backstop disappears?17%
- ChinaWhat if China's mortgage boycott flares up again?17%
- South KoreaWhat if the Korean won breaks past 1,650 to the dollar?17%
- IndiaWhat if foreign money flees India's bond index?17%
- IndonesiaWhat if the Indonesian rupiah breaks through 19,000 to the dollar?17%
- ChinaWhat if a Chinese tech giant spirals into a debt crisis?17%
- PolandWhat if the EU freezes Poland's recovery funds over rule-of-law concerns?17%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria freezes dollar repatriation for foreign investors?17%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia suspends its fiscal rule and the peso slides past 4800?17%
- PeruWhat if a fifth presidential ouster sinks Peru's sol?17%
- United States, MexicoWhat if Mexico's Banxico hikes between meetings to halt a peso rout?17%
- India, Brazil +1What if a surging dollar forces emerging markets to defend their currencies at once?17%
- GlobalWhat if the cross-currency basis blows out and swap lines reopen?17%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt's IMF deal collapses into default?17%
- IndiaWhat if India overshoots its deficit target and spooks bond markets?17%
- United KingdomWhat if a gilt spike retriggers UK pension margin calls?17%
- GlobalWhat if the US 10-year term premium spikes 80bp, pushing yields above 5.25%?17%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil's fiscal credibility collapses and triggers a sovereign risk-premium spike?17%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt devalues the pound again sharply under IMF program pressure?17%
- ChinaWhat if Beijing's property rescue fund proves far too small to restart projects?17%
- GlobalWhat if China's hidden-debt swap program fails to keep pace with rolling maturities?17%
- GlobalWhat if China's hidden-debt crackdown forces a collapse in local infrastructure spending?17%
- GlobalWhat if a run on Chinese bank wealth-management products forces fire-sales?17%
- GlobalWhat if a cluster of Chinese regional banks fails on property and LGFV losses?17%
- ChinaWhat if PBoC easing widens the China-US rate gap and accelerates yuan outflows?17%
- China, South KoreaWhat if a China downturn slashes Korean semiconductor and machinery exports?17%
- GlobalWhat if policy paralysis leaves China's property sector without decisive support?17%
- JapanWhat if the yen breaks ¥170 per dollar and forces large-scale MOF/BoJ FX intervention?17%
- GlobalWhat if thin margins and bond losses push a swath of shinkin banks into operating losses?17%
- GlobalWhat if zombie SMEs kept alive by zero-rate loans finally default and surge regional-bank credit costs?17%
- JapanWhat if Japanese real yields turn meaningfully positive for the first time in decades?17%
- United States, South KoreaWhat if the Korean won breaches 1,500 per dollar on capital outflows and a hawkish Fed?17%
- IndiaWhat if India's banking system gross NPA ratio rises toward 4.2% under RBI's severe stress scenario?17%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if sustained low oil pushes Saudi Arabia's deficit past 6% of GDP?17%
- China, NetherlandsWhat if China retaliatory tech curbs squeeze ASML/Applied in Asia?17%
- JapanWhat if Global carry unwind from a Japan rate shock hammers EM-Asia FX?17%
- GlobalWhat if SEK and NOK rally as Nordic war fear recedes?17%
- GlobalWhat if EUR rallies on a comprehensive European peace?17%
- Italy, GreeceWhat if Peripheral spreads compress on a European peace?17%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Suez normalization rebuilds Egypt's FX buffer?17%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Vision 2030 inflows firm the Saudi riyal peg?17%
- IsraelWhat if Israeli tech recovery lifts the shekel post-war?17%
- MaliWhat if AES exit tariffs disrupt ECOWAS supply chains?17%
- GlobalWhat if Mozambique LNG delay tightens European gas supply?17%
- United StatesWhat if Fed-independence fight un-anchors long-end yields?17%
- GlobalWhat if Debt-ceiling brinkmanship sparks T-bill stress?17%
- GlobalWhat if Offshore dollar funding squeeze spikes cross-currency basis?17%
- GlobalWhat if Gold backwardation signals physical scarcity squeeze?17%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine hyperinflation relapse as the peg snaps?17%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine provinces default, dragging the sovereign curve?17%
- MexicoWhat if Cartel-driven port disruption snarls Mexican exports?17%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia pension-and-labor reform clouds growth outlook?17%
- ChileWhat if Chile pension-withdrawal pressure unsettles local bond market?17%
- PeruWhat if Peru pension-withdrawal raids drain local capital markets?17%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador heads toward a second restructuring this decade?17%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador narco-violence shock derails the IMF program?17%
- ArgentinaWhat if Soy-dollar drought across the Plata basin starves reserves?17%
- Brazil, Argentina +1What if EM contagion from an Argentine peso break hits regional FX?17%
- Colombia, EcuadorWhat if Twin LatAm downgrades of Colombia and Ecuador hit EM credit?17%
- United StatesWhat if Dollar-funding squeeze widens LatAm cross-currency basis?17%
- Brazil, ColombiaWhat if Heterodox-policy turn in two big LatAm economies spooks markets?17%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey scraps orthodoxy, USDTRY gaps to a new record?17%
- TurkeyWhat if KKM unwind misfires, dollarization accelerates again?17%
- United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia +3What if Gulf FDI wave deploys into Egyptian assets after the float?17%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt graduates from serial-devaluation into a credible float?17%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey real-rate regime makes the lira a top EM carry currency?17%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya tourism-and-horticulture shock widens the trade gap?17%
- IndiaWhat if Adani-style governance shock rattles Indian risk premia?17%
- IndiaWhat if Heatwave power crunch dents India's industrial output?17%
- IndiaWhat if Sudden-stop scare as US real yields spike hits Indian bonds?17%
- IndiaWhat if State-finance stress (discom, freebies) clouds India's fiscal map?17%
- India, PakistanWhat if A strong dollar squeezes Pakistan's dollar-debt service?17%
- Saudi Arabia, PakistanWhat if Gulf SWF equity stakes anchor Pakistan privatization dollars?17%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh frontier-equity inflows build on stabilization?17%
- BangladeshWhat if Oil-import spike widens Bangladesh's external deficit?17%
- India, Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka rupee strength prompts CBSL to rebuild reserves?17%
- India, Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka frontier re-inclusion draws dedicated inflows?17%
- Sri LankaWhat if Macro-linked bond upside pays as Sri Lanka beats GDP triggers?17%
- India, Sri LankaWhat if Tourism-demand collapse undercuts Sri Lanka's reserve build?17%
- India, Sri LankaWhat if Political backlash against austerity stalls Sri Lanka reform?17%
- India, Pakistan +2What if Oil spike is a shared BoP shock for South Asian importers?17%
- IndiaWhat if India interest-bill crowds out capex as debt-service rises?17%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan tax-shortfall miss jeopardizes the next IMF tranche?17%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh reserves slip under three months of import cover?17%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam gold-premium surge signals dong-confidence stress?17%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines AI-displacement triggers OFW redeployment crisis?17%
- ThailandWhat if Thailand political violence escalates into market-roiling crisis?17%
- PolandWhat if Poland loses its A- rating on fiscal slippage?17%
- PolandWhat if Polish battery-plant glut triggers a CEE capex bust?17%
- HungaryWhat if Forint crisis sends EUR/HUF toward 430?17%
- HungaryWhat if Hungary downgraded to the brink of junk?17%
- RomaniaWhat if Romania Schengen-land entry boosts trade and FDI?17%
- RomaniaWhat if Romanian deficit overshoot forces a mid-year tax shock?17%
- RomaniaWhat if Romania nearshoring magnet status lifts the leu?17%
- Germany, CzechiaWhat if German demand collapse forces Czech auto layoffs?17%
- CzechiaWhat if CNB FX-reserve unwind caps koruna upside?17%
- KazakhstanWhat if CPC pipeline outage halts ~80% of Kazakh oil exports?17%
- KazakhstanWhat if Kazakh sulfuric-acid shortage caps uranium and copper output?17%
- GlobalWhat if Uzbekistan WTO accession accelerates trade integration?17%
- KazakhstanWhat if Caucasus transit normalization lifts AZN and KZT together?17%
- Russia, KazakhstanWhat if Central Asian FX tracks ruble weakness in lockstep?17%
- Poland, Romania +2What if Strong dollar squeezes CEE and Central Asian FX together?17%
- KazakhstanWhat if Frontier-index reweighting pulls capital into Central Asia?17%
- Russia, KazakhstanWhat if Remittance and trade shock from Russia hits Central Asia?17%
- Poland, Hungary +1What if CEE auto-and-battery glut triggers a regional capex bust?17%
- GlobalWhat if CEE intervention wave caps overshooting currencies?17%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya 2027/2031 eurobond buyback fails to fully clear?17%
- GlobalWhat if IMF program fully collapses and country re-defaults?17%
- GlobalWhat if Rating agency methodology change widens EM debt-affordability scores?17%
- GlobalWhat if New-issue premium blows out as frontier buyers demand 100bp+ concession?17%
- GlobalWhat if Central-bank financing of deficits stokes frontier currency collapse?17%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka post-restructuring fiscal slippage revives default fear?17%
- KenyaWhat if Kenya fiscal-consolidation reversal after protest-driven tax U-turn?17%
- GlobalWhat if Greenwashing backlash chills sustainability-linked sovereign issuance?17%
- GlobalWhat if Debt-for-nature swap unwinds as conservation KPIs go unmet?17%
- GlobalWhat if Climate disaster triggers debt-pause clause, testing market reaction?17%
- GlobalWhat if EM ETF redemption spiral amplifies a frontier selloff?17%
- GlobalWhat if Foreign ownership of EM local bonds hits multi-year low on de-risking?17%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar squeeze: surging DXY triggers frontier FX dominoes?17%
- GlobalWhat if Reserve quality scare: gold and illiquid assets mask FX shortfall?17%
- ArgentinaWhat if Holdout litigation: a pari passu ruling revives the Argentina playbook?17%
- GlobalWhat if Creditor-committee fragmentation stalls a frontier workout?17%
- GlobalWhat if IMF DSA reclassifies a sovereign to unsustainable, forcing restructuring?17%
- GlobalWhat if External-only restructuring shields locals but burns foreign holders?17%
- GlobalWhat if Reserve-currency flight to the dollar empties EM FX buffers fast?17%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina's crawling peg snaps into a discrete step-devaluation?17%
- GlobalWhat if Intervention exhaustion forces a maxi-devaluation overshoot?17%
- GlobalWhat if Reserve-cover collapse flips an EM cohort to sub-3-month import buffers?17%
- GlobalWhat if Crossover outflow wave dumps EM local debt back to dedicated funds?17%
- GlobalWhat if EM stagflation trap forces hikes into slowing growth?17%
- GlobalWhat if Global recession scare slams EM exporters and reserves together?17%
- GlobalWhat if Current-account-deficit five hit hardest in an EM-FX shakeout?17%
- United StatesWhat if Fed-hawkish repricing drains EM-FX through the real-rate channel?17%
- GlobalWhat if Outflow controls backfire, accelerating EM capital flight?17%
- GlobalWhat if Inflation-surprise outflow shock unwinds crowded EM local-bond longs?17%
- GlobalWhat if Stagflationary dollar-up shock is the worst case for EM-FX?17%
- United StatesWhat if Bond vigilantes stage a buyers' strike on the US deficit?17%
- United StatesWhat if Treasury shifts issuance long, duration supply shock hits?17%
- United KingdomWhat if UK pension LDI rules tightened, systemic gilt risk falls?17%
- JapanWhat if Yen blows past 165 as BoJ lags, intervention threat caps risk?17%
- GermanyWhat if Bund scarcity reverses as Germany ramps fiscal spending?17%
- United StatesWhat if US Treasury buyback program fails to stem long-end cheapening?17%
- JapanWhat if BoJ surprise hike snaps the global carry trade in a single session?17%
- United StatesWhat if US tax-cut extension reopens the deficit, supply fears resurge?17%
- United KingdomWhat if UK Autumn Budget triggers a mini gilt tantrum on borrowing upgrade?17%
- GlobalWhat if Wartime-style fiscal expansion lifts DM defense borrowing and yields?17%
- GlobalWhat if Oil+gas double-shock stagflation: CPI tops 6%, growth halves?17%
- United StatesWhat if Dovish pivot reflation: Fed declares victory, financial conditions ease?17%
- United StatesWhat if Insurance-cut goldilocks: Fed trims pre-emptively, expansion extends?17%
- GlobalWhat if Fiscal stimulus reflation boom: deficit spending lifts nominal growth?17%
- GlobalWhat if Calibrated easing cycle: 150bp of orderly cuts, no recession?17%
- GlobalWhat if Credible fiscal consolidation rally: deficit path stabilizes?17%
- GlobalWhat if Financial-conditions easing impulse: looser FCI front-runs cuts?17%
- GlobalWhat if Peace-dividend disinflation: lower defense needs ease price pressure?17%
- United StatesWhat if Fed removes the 'Fed put,' tolerating a deeper risk drawdown?17%
- United StatesWhat if Fed loses control of the front end as repo spikes defy policy?17%
- United StatesWhat if Fed independence shock: Treasury overrides QT in a policy clash?17%
- United States, JapanWhat if BOJ rate-differential snap-back triggers a global risk-parity delever?17%
- European UnionWhat if ECB TPI refusal lets a fiscal-rebel periphery spread spiral?17%
- Germany, France +1What if ECB hawkish hold collides with a fiscal-political shock in France?17%
- GlobalWhat if EM peg break forces a maxi-devaluation and capital controls?17%
- GlobalWhat if EM rate-cut misstep reignites inflation and forces a U-turn?17%
- United KingdomWhat if BoE active gilt sales spike term premium in a fiscal squeeze?17%
- AustraliaWhat if RBA holds hawkish as Australian inflation proves stubborn?17%
- GlobalWhat if Riksbank/Norges Bank policy splits expose Nordic housing fragility?17%
- United StatesWhat if Fed tightens bank rules, squeezing lending and Treasury liquidity?17%
- United StatesWhat if Fed wage-spiral fear forces a hawkish hold despite cooling CPI?17%
- United StatesWhat if Stablecoin run forces a Fed liquidity backstop to stem contagion?17%
- United StatesWhat if Fed liquidity-floor miscalculation re-triggers a 2019-style repo spike?17%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka redux: unrest tips a frontier sovereign to default?17%
- NorwayWhat if Norway-template wealth tax sparks founder capital flight?17%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico judicial overhaul spooks investors, weakens MXN?17%
- LebanonWhat if Lebanon reform breakthrough unlocks recovery financing (good)?17%
- ChinaWhat if China slides back into outright deflation?16%
- ChinaWhat if Beijing unleashes a 10 trillion yuan fiscal bazooka?16%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana's debt exchange relapses and the cedi slides again?16%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if a widening deficit forces another record Saudi debt wave?16%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Brent below $60 revives fears for Saudi Arabia's dollar peg?16%
- United States, Iran +1What if the US freezes Iraq's dollar auctions over Iran flows?16%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka has to restructure a second time?16%
- GermanyWhat if Europe's defense-spending surge floods bond markets with new sovereign supply?16%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey faces a renewed lira crisis with inflation re-accelerating past 70%?16%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina's crawling-peg breaks and triggers a sharp peso devaluation?16%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan teeters near sovereign default with import cover down to weeks?16%
- ChinaWhat if offshore creditors of Chinese developers face near-zero recoveries?16%
- GlobalWhat if Chinese bank net interest margins fall below 1.5% and erode capital?16%
- ChinaWhat if defending the yuan forces China to tighten onshore rates during a property crisis?16%
- GlobalWhat if rate cuts fail to revive Chinese credit demand in a liquidity trap?16%
- Hong KongWhat if Hong Kong commercial property values collapse 65%?16%
- China, Hong KongWhat if Hong Kong banks book heavy losses on mainland China exposures?16%
- ChinaWhat if China sharply tightens capital controls to stem outflows?16%
- GlobalWhat if a self-reinforcing doom loop between China's LGFVs and regional banks deepens?16%
- China, GermanyWhat if Germany's industrial production falls more than 8% as energy costs and China demand weaken?16%
- GlobalWhat if Japan's zero-rate COVID-era SME loans hit repayment cliffs and spark a default wave?16%
- JapanWhat if a BoJ hike triggers a violent yen-carry unwind like August 2024?16%
- JapanWhat if Japan enters a genuine wage-price spiral for the first time in decades?16%
- JapanWhat if an unexpectedly strong shunto wage round forces the BoJ to accelerate rate hikes?16%
- United States, JapanWhat if the yen carry trade collapses and triggers a global risk-asset selloff?16%
- United StatesWhat if the DXY surges above 115 and crushes emerging-market currencies?16%
- Pakistan, BangladeshWhat if extreme monsoon flooding triggers sovereign distress in South Asia?16%
- Germany, European UnionWhat if catastrophic German flooding concentrates losses at Sparkassen and regional banks?16%
- JapanWhat if BoJ accelerates QT; fiscal worries lift the JGB term premium?16%
- Japan, South KoreaWhat if Yen-carry unwind from a Korea war scare hits global equities?16%
- GermanyWhat if DAX re-rates higher on a European peace dividend?16%
- GlobalWhat if Cheaper energy revives the euro-area PMI?16%
- GermanyWhat if Bund yields rise as peace and supply hit the haven bid?16%
- GhanaWhat if Ghana cocoa logistics seize on northern raids?16%
- United States, MexicoWhat if Peso carry unwind on US-Mexico security shock?16%
- GlobalWhat if US fiscal scare lifts term premium sharply?16%
- JapanWhat if Japan JGB scare jolts global duration?16%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar-debasement trade dominates allocation?16%
- ChinaWhat if Digital-yuan cross-border rails gain trade share?16%
- BrazilWhat if BCB front-loads Selic cuts, steepening the Brazil curve bullishly?16%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil drought scorches the coffee and sugar belt?16%
- PeruWhat if Peru El Nino floods disrupt mining and farm output?16%
- GlobalWhat if Risk-parity delever drags LatAm carry positions sharply lower?16%
- United StatesWhat if US tariff wall on LatAm goods reorders regional trade?16%
- Brazil, ArgentinaWhat if Triple-La-Nina drought hits Southern Cone grain output?16%
- United States, PanamaWhat if Panama Canal drought disrupts LatAm Pacific-Atlantic trade?16%
- Argentina, EcuadorWhat if Argentine-Ecuadorian default fears sour broad EM credit?16%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey CDS converges toward Gulf peers as orthodoxy endures?16%
- IndiaWhat if Small-and-mid-cap froth unwinds in a sharp India correction?16%
- India, Iran +1What if Geopolitical oil-corridor scare spikes India's import-cost tail?16%
- IndiaWhat if Climate-driven crop volatility keeps India inflation sticky?16%
- IndiaWhat if Election-result shock spikes rupee and NIFTY volatility?16%
- PakistanWhat if Pakistan second restructuring as eurobond maturities pile up?16%
- BangladeshWhat if Energy and gas shortages throttle Bangladesh industry?16%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka re-default scare as restructuring terms strain?16%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan FX-cap removal sparks a fresh rupee step-devaluation?16%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam overheating: inflation tops 6%, SBV forced to hike?16%
- ThailandWhat if Thai sovereign downgrade as debt breaches 70% ceiling?16%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia downstreaming overreach strands smelter capital?16%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia rupiah flash-crash forces emergency BI rate hike?16%
- ThailandWhat if Thailand aging-demographics drag caps long-run growth?16%
- HungaryWhat if Orban-era fuel and rate caps distort the forint?16%
- Poland, Hungary +1What if Koruna outperforms as CEE safe haven in a risk-off?16%
- GlobalWhat if Uzbek reform fatigue stalls FDI and dents the som?16%
- GlobalWhat if Uzbek subsidy cuts spark inflation and unrest risk?16%
- Russia, AzerbaijanWhat if Azeri gas re-export of Russian molecules sparks EU scrutiny?16%
- Poland, Romania +1What if CPC outage spikes Brent and rattles CEE energy importers?16%
- Kazakhstan, AzerbaijanWhat if Trans-Caspian energy bridge ties Central Asia to Europe?16%
- Kazakhstan, AzerbaijanWhat if Petro-fund windfalls let Caspian currencies firm?16%
- Poland, RomaniaWhat if CEE defense-bond supply wave steepens regional curves?16%
- GlobalWhat if Tunisia first-time hard-currency default after IMF deal collapses?16%
- FranceWhat if Single-limb CAC stress-test: aggregated vote forced over a holdout bloc?16%
- GlobalWhat if SDR rechanneling stalls as creditor parliaments balk?16%
- ZambiaWhat if Zambia second restructuring as initial deal proves insufficient?16%
- GlobalWhat if Domestic-law debt redenomination shocks foreign holders?16%
- GlobalWhat if Bridge-financing failure forces a disorderly default mid-negotiation?16%
- GlobalWhat if Funding-currency squeeze whipsaws the crowded EM-carry trade?16%
- GlobalWhat if Hidden FX-swap liabilities expose overstated EM reserves?16%
- GlobalWhat if Risk-parity delever drags EM-FX down with global cross-asset selling?16%
- GlobalWhat if EM-FX drawdown wipes out a year of carry in weeks?16%
- GlobalWhat if Safe-haven dollar bid overwhelms EM fundamentals in a flight episode?16%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar-bull breakout triggers an EM-FX correlation crash lower?16%
- GlobalWhat if Overvalued-EM-FX cohort corrects sharply on a growth disappointment?16%
- GlobalWhat if EM-FX gap-risk explodes as weekend headlines reprice the open?16%
- United KingdomWhat if LDI doom loop returns as gilt collateral calls cascade?16%
- GlobalWhat if Debt-monetization debasement trade: gold and BTC up, USD down?16%
- ItalyWhat if Italian bank doom-loop fear flares as BTP holdings hit capital?16%
- United KingdomWhat if UK index-linked gilt rout as breakevens spike on a fiscal scare?16%
- GlobalWhat if Inflation re-acceleration forces DM to issue into a hawkish CB?16%
- GlobalWhat if EU defense-bond launch reframes higher deficits as growth-positive?16%
- GlobalWhat if Stealth yield-curve control spreads across DM to cap debt service?16%
- GlobalWhat if DM fiscal crisis forces a coordinated debt-restructuring debate?16%
- United StatesWhat if Dollar-confidence wobble lifts gold as a Treasury alternative?16%
- GlobalWhat if Pension and insurer de-risking shifts to gold from sovereign bonds?16%
- GlobalWhat if Inflation second wave: premature easing reignites a 1978-79 echo?16%
- GlobalWhat if Debt-deflation trap: post-bubble deleveraging lifts real debt burdens?16%
- GlobalWhat if Western Japanification: ZLB returns, equities flatline, cash wins?16%
- GlobalWhat if CPI downside surprise relief: a cool print unleashes a duration rally?16%
- GlobalWhat if Dovish dot-plot surprise: three cuts penciled in, risk assets pop?16%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar downcycle reflation: weaker USD eases global liquidity?16%
- United StatesWhat if QT taper liquidity relief: balance-sheet runoff slows, conditions ease?16%
- GlobalWhat if Goldilocks rate-path: gradual cuts keep growth and inflation balanced?16%
- United StatesWhat if Disinflation soft-landing victory lap: Fed pivots, cycle extends?16%
- United StatesWhat if Fed restarts QE as a crisis backstops collapsing collateral markets?16%
- United StatesWhat if Executive pressure to fire a Fed governor breaks central-bank norms?16%
- United StatesWhat if Fed adopts explicit yield-curve control on the 5-year point?16%
- United StatesWhat if Fed emergency inter-meeting cut signals a fast-breaking crisis?16%
- United StatesWhat if Fed swap lines reactivated to quell a global dollar-funding squeeze?16%
- JapanWhat if BOJ exits NIRP and YCC in one disorderly JGB-yield tantrum?16%
- JapanWhat if BOJ loses the JGB market as a failed auction forces emergency buying?16%
- JapanWhat if Failed yen intervention accelerates the slide and a carry blow-off?16%
- European UnionWhat if ECB policy-error hold cracks a peripheral banking system?16%
- GlobalWhat if CBDC-driven bank-run dynamics force deposit-flight safeguards?16%
- SwitzerlandWhat if SNB intervention to weaken the franc fails as haven flows surge?16%
- GlobalWhat if A G3 central bank monetizes deficits, breaking the inflation anchor?16%
- United StatesWhat if Fed discount-window stigma cracks as a regional-bank run spreads?16%
- GlobalWhat if a pension system goes insolvent in a major economy?15%
- South KoreaWhat if Korea's property project-finance loans spark a crisis?15%
- IndiaWhat if a shadow-bank collapse seizes up India's credit?15%
- ItalyWhat if Monte dei Paschi needs another state rescue?15%
- France, European UnionWhat if the ECB deploys its crisis tool to defend France?15%
- United Kingdom, IrelandWhat if the UK-EU customs deal collapses over Northern Ireland?15%
- JapanWhat if the BOJ's unrealised bond losses exceed its own capital?15%
- GlobalWhat if a flight-to-safety surge drives the dollar index above 120?15%
- GlobalWhat if the 10-year real yield climbs to 3%?15%
- Germany, Italy +1What if the ECB triggers its anti-fragmentation backstop for Italy?15%
- GlobalWhat if Brazil's central bank delivers an emergency Selic hike after the real collapses?15%
- ArgentinaWhat if fiscal anchoring fails in Argentina and the economy tips back into hyperinflation?15%
- ChinaWhat if a major Chinese province becomes effectively insolvent?15%
- GlobalWhat if China's shadow-bank credit contracts sharply and starves private firms?15%
- ChinaWhat if China's FX reserves drop below the $2.5 trillion adequacy threshold?15%
- GlobalWhat if China's shrinking population collides with its property and debt overhang?15%
- GlobalWhat if aggressive PBoC rate cuts fail to revive Chinese borrowing?15%
- GlobalWhat if cash-strapped Chinese local governments delay civil-servant salaries?15%
- GlobalWhat if persistently high youth unemployment depresses Chinese household formation and spending?15%
- JapanWhat if JGB yields jump 100bp in parallel and drive mark-to-market losses across Japanese bank portfolios?15%
- GlobalWhat if rate normalization fails to fix regional-bank profitability and stocks trade below 0.5x book?15%
- GlobalWhat if imported inflation outpaces Japanese wage gains and squeezes household incomes?15%
- South KoreaWhat if a memory-chip downturn slashes Samsung and SK Hynix earnings and Korean export receipts?15%
- China, South KoreaWhat if a sharp China slowdown collapses Korean intermediate-goods and petrochemical exports?15%
- IndiaWhat if an oil-price spike widens India's current-account deficit and pressures the rupee?15%
- IndonesiaWhat if the Indonesian rupiah breaks past 18,500 per dollar in a sudden capital stop?15%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if low oil and tightening riyal liquidity drive Saudi bank funding costs sharply higher?15%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Brent below GCC breakevens forces Saudi and Gulf states into synchronized debt issuance?15%
- NigeriaWhat if lower oil prices and output widen Nigeria's deficit and pressure the naira?15%
- PolandWhat if PLN sells off on a Belarus-border incident?15%
- GlobalWhat if European insurers de-rate on hybrid-war losses?15%
- NorwayWhat if NOK rallies on an Arctic de-escalation and firm gas?15%
- GermanyWhat if DAX sells off as a gas spike hits German industry?15%
- GlobalWhat if European reinsurance prices Eurasia war risk higher?15%
- GlobalWhat if EUR/USD breaks higher on European de-escalation?15%
- United Kingdom, Yemen +1What if Suez revenue collapse drains Egypt's reserves?15%
- IsraelWhat if Israel war premium fades, shekel and TASE rally?15%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey lira crisis returns on policy reversal?15%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt Gulf-backed reform stabilizes the pound?15%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt graduates from serial-devaluation cycle?15%
- United Kingdom, Yemen +1What if Egypt's pound slides as Red Sea toll revenue craters?15%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela sanctions relief sticks, Chevron crude returns?15%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador fiscal strain reignites default fears?15%
- GlobalWhat if Disorderly dollar drop on twin-deficit panic?15%
- ArgentinaWhat if Vaca Muerta output disappoints, denting the FX-windfall thesis?15%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine carry sudden-stop as global risk appetite sours?15%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil Petrobras dividend raid spooks equity investors?15%
- ColombiaWhat if Brent slump drains Colombia's oil-dependent reserves?15%
- ChileWhat if Chile constitutional-reform relapse revives policy uncertainty?15%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador fuel-subsidy unrest forces a costly policy U-turn?15%
- Mexico, Colombia +1What if WTI glut squeezes LatAm oil-exporter budgets and currencies?15%
- Peru, Ecuador +1What if Andean political turmoil cluster spikes regional risk premia?15%
- United States, MexicoWhat if US recession spillover hits LatAm exports and remittances?15%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkish bank FX-funding squeeze freezes external credit?15%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt upgraded out of CCC into single-B stability?15%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if UAE golden-visa wealth migration deepens the capital base?15%
- IndiaWhat if RBI-dividend dependence flagged as a fiscal-quality risk?15%
- India, PakistanWhat if Import controls and L/C freeze stall Pakistan's economy?15%
- BangladeshWhat if Subsidy and SOE losses widen Bangladesh's fiscal hole?15%
- India, Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka rupee slides as import demand outpaces inflows?15%
- IndiaWhat if India PSU-bank deposit war squeezes net interest margins?15%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan terror-or-border flare-up spikes its risk premium?15%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh state-bank recapitalization burdens the budget?15%
- BangladeshWhat if Bangladesh inflation stays sticky, forcing prolonged tight policy?15%
- India, Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka rupee gives back gains as import demand revives?15%
- India, Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka revenue-target miss strains the IMF primary-surplus path?15%
- India, Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka security scare deters tourists, stalling reserve build?15%
- PhilippinesWhat if Peso de-rating as structural BoP deficit becomes entrenched?15%
- China, IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia resource-nationalism scares off Western EV capital?15%
- PolandWhat if Polish housing-credit boom forces macroprudential brakes?15%
- HungaryWhat if Forint rout forces capital-flow defensive measures?15%
- CzechiaWhat if Czech consumer rebound powers a domestic recovery?15%
- KazakhstanWhat if Oil-price crash drains Kazakhstan's National Fund?15%
- KazakhstanWhat if Tenge dollarization spikes in an oil-driven scare?15%
- GlobalWhat if Uzbek som slides as the convertibility experiment strains?15%
- AzerbaijanWhat if BTC pipeline disruption curbs Azeri crude exports?15%
- Poland, Romania +1What if Contagion from a Romanian junk cut hits CEE peers?15%
- Kazakhstan, AzerbaijanWhat if Oil-price collapse hits Kazakh and Azeri petro-currencies?15%
- GlobalWhat if CEE FX-swap funding squeeze in a global risk-off?15%
- Germany, Poland +2What if German recession spillover tips CEE into a synchronized slump?15%
- Poland, KazakhstanWhat if EM-wide flight to quality favors CEE over Central Asia?15%
- Poland, HungaryWhat if Polish-Hungarian policy split widens the CEE FX spread?15%
- Poland, Romania +1What if Oil glut hands CEE importers a disinflation windfall?15%
- Kazakhstan, AzerbaijanWhat if Kazakh and Azeri output growth deepens an oil glut?15%
- Kazakhstan, AzerbaijanWhat if Caspian petro-FX cracks as the oil bull market fades?15%
- Poland, Romania +1What if Rating-agency CEE review round splits winners and losers?15%
- GlobalWhat if Sovereign ESG-rating downgrade triggers green-mandate divestment?15%
- GlobalWhat if Frontier-bond liquidity evaporates as dealer balance sheets shrink?15%
- GlobalWhat if De-dollarization gambit backfires as investors flee local debt?15%
- GlobalWhat if Odious-debt repudiation claim unsettles bilateral creditors?15%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt forced to abandon its managed band in a sharp pound float?15%
- GlobalWhat if A second EM peg buckles, sparking a regional devaluation domino?15%
- GlobalWhat if Liquidity mismatch in EM local-debt ETFs amplifies an outflow spiral?15%
- GlobalWhat if Cross-currency basis blowout traps EM corporates short dollars?15%
- GlobalWhat if EM hard-currency primary market freezes shut in a dollar squeeze?15%
- GlobalWhat if NDF market dislocation amplifies an offshore EM-currency attack?15%
- GlobalWhat if Hot-money exodus exposes an EM with a thin balance-of-payments cushion?15%
- GlobalWhat if De-dollarization stumble triggers a dash-for-dollars in an EM?15%
- GlobalWhat if A managed-float EM widens its band defensively under attack?15%
- GlobalWhat if No-swap-line EMs left exposed in a global dollar-funding freeze?15%
- GlobalWhat if Opaque reserve reporting magnifies an EM confidence crisis?15%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar-funding doom-loop forces an EM into emergency capital controls?15%
- GlobalWhat if US term premium hits +150bp as the moderate fiscal anchor breaks?15%
- United StatesWhat if US TGA rebuild after a deal drains reserves, brief funding squeeze?15%
- JapanWhat if Japan debt-service ratio jumps as JGB yields normalize higher?15%
- France, BelgiumWhat if France slips into EU excessive-deficit procedure, OAT cheapens?15%
- United KingdomWhat if BoE active gilt sales clash with a fiscal splurge, long end buckles?15%
- GlobalWhat if DM debt wall: $3tn+ of refinancing hits at higher yields?15%
- GlobalWhat if Bond-market loss of confidence forces financial repression in DM?15%
- United States, Japan +1What if Foreign central banks rotate Treasury reserves into bunds and JGBs?15%
- FranceWhat if France downgraded to AA-, OAT trades like a soft-core periphery?15%
- GlobalWhat if Global duration de-rating as the 'lower-for-longer' regime dies?15%
- GlobalWhat if Sovereign-debt supercycle peaks, austerity politics return to DM?15%
- GlobalWhat if Demographic pension wall lifts DM term premia structurally?15%
- GlobalWhat if US fiscal-tail premium pushes 10y real yields toward 3%?15%
- JapanWhat if Japan downgrade risk re-emerges as stimulus reopens the deficit?15%
- France, BelgiumWhat if Belgium fiscal slippage drags the semi-core wider with France?15%
- United KingdomWhat if UK 'moron premium' returns on a leadership-driven fiscal wobble?15%
- Japan, France +1What if Synchronized G7 bear-steepening as deficits and supply align?15%
- GlobalWhat if Debasement regime: real assets bid as DM real yields go negative?15%
- GlobalWhat if Entitlement trust-fund cliff forces a US fiscal reckoning?15%
- United States, JapanWhat if Yen intervention drains FX reserves, MoF sells US Treasuries?15%
- FranceWhat if OAT slips out of the core index club, forced selling widens spreads?15%
- ChinaWhat if China deflation export: factory-gate price falls suppress global CPI?15%
- GlobalWhat if Gold-standard nostalgia bid: distrust of fiat lifts XAU structurally?15%
- GlobalWhat if Wage-deceleration disinflation: job-switching premium fades fast?15%
- LebanonWhat if Lebanon collapse deepens with no reform or financing?15%
- GlobalWhat if US muni-stress wave from population outflows widens spreads?15%
- GlobalWhat if a G20 central bank holds bitcoin as a reserve?14%
- GlobalWhat if the first LGFV hard default reprices China's $9tn debt complex?14%
- ChinaWhat if bank runs cascade across China's rural lenders?14%
- Japan, India +1What if a second global yen-carry unwind hits?14%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan's IMF programme collapses?14%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka relapses into default?14%
- Germany, Italy +2What if Italy's bond spread over Germany tops 250 basis points?14%
- China, AngolaWhat if collapsing oil revenue breaches Angola's China loan covenants?14%
- ChileWhat if a copper crash drives Chile's peso past 1050?14%
- United StatesWhat if the White House packs the Fed into a forced rate cut?14%
- SwedenWhat if Sweden's Riksbank scrambles to halt a krona collapse?14%
- China, KenyaWhat if Kenya misses a maturing dollar Eurobond?14%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria defaults on its naira debt?14%
- GlobalWhat if Senegal forces a domestic debt exchange?14%
- United StatesWhat if the Treasury exhausts its extraordinary measures at the X-date?14%
- GlobalWhat if insolvent US multiemployer pensions overwhelm the PBGC?14%
- GlobalWhat if the US yield curve bear-steepens violently toward 2s10s of plus 100bp?14%
- GlobalWhat if a US fiscal-outlook downgrade cascades into agency and municipal spreads?14%
- Germany, ItalyWhat if the BTP-Bund spread blows out past 300bp on Italian budget slippage?14%
- GlobalWhat if the US term premium normalizes toward 150bp, tightening conditions for duration holders?14%
- South AfricaWhat if capital flight triggers a sudden stop and rand sell-off in South Africa?14%
- GlobalWhat if a global risk-off triggers a broad EM sudden stop similar to the 2013 taper tantrum?14%
- GlobalWhat if land-sale revenue to Chinese local governments falls another 30%?14%
- GlobalWhat if China's trust industry freezes as investors refuse to roll products?14%
- ChinaWhat if mounting small-bank failures exhaust China's deposit-insurance fund?14%
- ChinaWhat if Chinese GDP growth collapses toward 2%?14%
- China, JapanWhat if China and Japan are simultaneously stuck in balance-sheet recessions?14%
- China, Zambia +2What if a China slowdown triggers distress among Belt-and-Road borrowers?14%
- GlobalWhat if a cluster of Chinese SOE bond defaults shatters the implicit guarantee?14%
- GlobalWhat if a 30% home-price decline pushes a large wave of Chinese buyers into negative equity?14%
- ChinaWhat if capital flight via crypto rails undermines China's currency controls?14%
- GlobalWhat if Hong Kong's home-price slump pushes negative-equity cases to multi-decade highs?14%
- ChinaWhat if a sharp yuan devaluation drags Asian currencies and equities lower?14%
- GlobalWhat if Chinese banks are forced to recognize the true scale of property-loan bad debts?14%
- GlobalWhat if frozen trust-product redemptions in China spark an industry-wide run?14%
- ChinaWhat if China's manufacturing PMI stays entrenched in contraction?14%
- GlobalWhat if developer defaults cascade to Chinese construction and materials suppliers?14%
- European UnionWhat if tight financial conditions tip the euro area into a shallow recession?14%
- GlobalWhat if the euro-area composite PMI sinks well below 45 signalling a broad-based downturn?14%
- JapanWhat if a 100bp rate shock wipes out shinkin banks' unrealized gains and breaches capital buffers?14%
- JapanWhat if banks crowd JGBs into held-to-maturity to avoid losses but face hidden duration risk?14%
- JapanWhat if the BoJ accelerates balance-sheet runoff and sharply widens the JGB term premium?14%
- IndiaWhat if India's credit-deposit ratio above 82% forces banks into a system-wide liquidity squeeze?14%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if the Public Investment Fund slows giga-project spending to cope with low oil?14%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if falling oil receipts drain riyal liquidity and drive SAIBOR sharply higher?14%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi Arabia accelerates energy-subsidy cuts to plug a low-oil deficit?14%
- Saudi Arabia, United Arab EmiratesWhat if Brent below $50 tips Abu Dhabi's budget into deficit and curbs GRE spending?14%
- GlobalWhat if a major cyclone hits an emerging economy with almost no insurance?14%
- GlobalWhat if chronic heat cuts labor and farm output across low-latitude emerging economies?14%
- JapanWhat if typhoon flooding concentrates losses at Japan's already-squeezed regional banks?14%
- ChinaWhat if catastrophic flooding across China's major river basins damages banks?14%
- Italy, Spain +2What if a cluster of Mediterranean flash floods overwhelms regional insurers?14%
- GlobalWhat if Defense-spending surge widens EU deficits?14%
- GlobalWhat if Defense names crash on a sudden peace shock?14%
- GermanyWhat if Energy-shock recession grips German industry?14%
- Germany, UkraineWhat if Bunds rally as a haven on eastern-flank escalation?14%
- LebanonWhat if Lebanon IMF deal stabilizes a dollarized economy?14%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Sub-$60 oil strains Saudi riyal peg credibility?14%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey reserves rebuild as carry inflows return?14%
- United Kingdom, Yemen +1What if Suez and tourism revival rebuild Egypt's reserves?14%
- IsraelWhat if Israeli ratings outlook restored as war risk fades?14%
- GlobalWhat if Gulf currencies stay rock-solid through the cycle?14%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi non-oil boom de-links riyal from oil cycle?14%
- GlobalWhat if Gulf sovereign wealth recycles into global risk assets?14%
- United StatesWhat if Oil windfall lets Gulf central banks ease with the Fed?14%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey loses market access, taps an IMF backstop?14%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkish corporate FX-debt wall triggers a credit event?14%
- PakistanWhat if Pakistan exits IMF dependence with a durable reserve buffer?14%
- BangladeshWhat if EU GSP-status review threatens Bangladesh trade preferences?14%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka graduates to durable B-rated frontier status?14%
- Sri LankaWhat if Climate-disaster shock strains Sri Lanka's thin buffers?14%
- IndiaWhat if Rupee one-day record drop triggers RBI intraday dollar dump?14%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka contingent-bond GDP triggers stay out of the money?14%
- China, VietnamWhat if China dumping floods Vietnam with goods, widens trade deficit?14%
- IndonesiaWhat if EU/US push nickel anti-dumping duties on Indonesian steel?14%
- MalaysiaWhat if Ringgit slides as oil/LNG price drop hits petro-revenue?14%
- United States, PhilippinesWhat if Philippine remittance-fed peso resilience defies dollar strength?14%
- KazakhstanWhat if Kazakh unrest over fuel prices threatens energy exports?14%
- KazakhstanWhat if Caspian storm shuts Kazakh CPC loadings for weeks?14%
- AzerbaijanWhat if Manat dollarization spikes on devaluation fear?14%
- Poland, Romania +1What if Twin-deficit reckoning forces a CEE austerity cycle?14%
- Kazakhstan, AzerbaijanWhat if Caspian-to-Europe gas push eases EU diversification?14%
- ChinaWhat if Laos opaque China debt forces hidden-loan restructuring disclosure?14%
- GlobalWhat if EM-FX flash-crash on thin holiday liquidity stops out leverage?14%
- IndiaWhat if India gold-import surge drains official reserves of FX?14%
- GlobalWhat if Gold spikes as banking-stress fears resurface?14%
- United StatesWhat if Failed US 10y auction forces an emergency Fed liquidity line?14%
- FranceWhat if French bank doom-loop fear emerges as OAT losses hit lenders?14%
- Germany, ItalyWhat if Italy snap-election risk reopens the BTP-Bund spread above 250bp?14%
- GlobalWhat if DM 'higher-for-longer' debt service crowds out public investment?14%
- United StatesWhat if Services superinflation: shelter and insurance keep core PCE above 4%?14%
- GlobalWhat if Yield-curve control DM debut: a central bank caps long yields?14%
- United StatesWhat if Average-inflation-targeting overshoot: Fed lets it run, breakevens rise?14%
- United StatesWhat if Tariff-passthrough deflation offset: strong dollar caps import prices?14%
- GlobalWhat if Liquidity-trap relapse: rate cuts fail to revive flat demand?14%
- GlobalWhat if Real-yield spike gold drawdown: TIPS surge knocks bullion lower?14%
- GlobalWhat if EM inflation relapse: currency slide forces emergency rate hikes?14%
- GlobalWhat if Fiscal austerity contraction: spending cuts tip growth negative?14%
- GlobalWhat if Inflation-targeting abandonment: a major central bank lifts its target?14%
- GlobalWhat if Two-percent mission accomplished: target hit and credibly held?14%
- GlobalWhat if Emergency intermeeting cut: liquidity scare forces a panic ease?14%
- GlobalWhat if Bond-vigilante revolt: deficits punished with a buyers' strike?14%
- United StatesWhat if Supercore PCE cooldown: services-ex-housing eases, cuts greenlit?14%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed makes an emergency 50bp rate cut?13%
- GlobalWhat if a major economy imposes a wealth tax and capital controls?13%
- China, PakistanWhat if Pakistan defaults on its sovereign debt?13%
- Hong KongWhat if Hong Kong's dollar peg comes under siege?13%
- South AfricaWhat if a budget standstill triggers a run on South Africa's rand?13%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey restructures its domestic lira bonds?13%
- MexicoWhat if a US recession cuts Mexican exports and pushes bank bad loans higher?13%
- South AfricaWhat if renewed Eskom and Transnet bailouts push South Africa's debt past 80% of GDP?13%
- TurkeyWhat if eroding CBRT credibility drives a fresh dollarization spiral in Turkey?13%
- ArgentinaWhat if a confidence shock sparks deposit flight from Argentine banks into dollars?13%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria's naira float triggers a 40%-plus devaluation and an inflation surge?13%
- ColombiaWhat if fiscal uncertainty and oil weakness drive a sharp Colombian peso sell-off?13%
- HungaryWhat if Hungary's twin deficits and EU standoff drive a forint crisis and emergency rate hikes?13%
- China, MalaysiaWhat if a strong dollar and weak China demand drive the ringgit to multi-decade lows?13%
- GlobalWhat if China's consumption vouchers and trade-in schemes fail to lift spending?13%
- ChinaWhat if China's bank-recap needs force de facto PBoC monetization of sovereign bonds?13%
- ChinaWhat if a yuan devaluation ignites competitive currency responses across Asia?13%
- GlobalWhat if Chinese credit demand slumps to record lows as firms and households stop borrowing?13%
- GlobalWhat if a fresh bank run in China deepens the deflationary spiral?13%
- GlobalWhat if China's combined government debt exhausts perceived fiscal space for a rescue?13%
- Germany, United Kingdom +1What if a 20% drop in world trade slams euro-area export volumes?13%
- FranceWhat if France slides into stagflation as fiscal consolidation stalls growth near zero?13%
- Germany, ItalyWhat if Italy re-enters recession as high real rates and BTP spreads tighten credit?13%
- GlobalWhat if a sharp euro depreciation re-ignites euro-area goods inflation?13%
- GlobalWhat if the euro falls back below parity with the dollar?13%
- ItalyWhat if energy bills and inflation squeeze Italian household real incomes and cut consumption?13%
- IndiaWhat if India's infrastructure and power-sector loan-quality crisis re-emerges at PSU banks?13%
- IndiaWhat if Indian retail-loan growth reverses and delinquencies on personal loans and cards rise sharply?13%
- MalaysiaWhat if the ringgit slides 20% on portfolio outflows and a surging dollar?13%
- China, Japan +5What if a China hard landing transmits simultaneously across Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and ASEAN?13%
- CanadaWhat if Canadian unemployment climbs toward 9% as the mortgage-renewal drag and tariffs bite?13%
- CanadaWhat if US tariff escalation drives USD/CAD past 1.50 as Canadian terms of trade deteriorate?13%
- United States, CanadaWhat if US tariffs and content rules gut the North American auto supply chain through Canada?13%
- CanadaWhat if the Bank of Canada cuts rates aggressively as the renewal wall and tariffs crush demand?13%
- SwitzerlandWhat if euro-area stress pushes EUR/CHF toward parity and forces heavy SNB intervention?13%
- SwitzerlandWhat if a euro-area recession and periphery spread blowout spills into Switzerland through trade and banking?13%
- GlobalWhat if record heat waves in the Gulf slash outdoor-labor capacity?13%
- JapanWhat if 40y JGB yield melt-up triggers a global carry-trade unwind?13%
- JapanWhat if Japan fiscal-credibility scare lifts JGB yields and term premia?13%
- Germany, UkraineWhat if Ukraine grid near-collapse drives EU power rationing?13%
- RussiaWhat if EUR sells off on a Russia-NATO clash scare?13%
- European UnionWhat if ECB stays hawkish as a gas shock relifts inflation?13%
- Germany, ItalyWhat if BTP-Bund spread blows out on escalation and deficits?13%
- GlobalWhat if Energy spike pushes euro-area PMI into contraction?13%
- GlobalWhat if EUR/USD slides toward parity on a war-and-gas shock?13%
- United States, IranWhat if Iran-deal disinflation lets the Fed cut?13%
- IsraelWhat if Israel war-cost blowout pressures the shekel?13%
- IranWhat if Iran reintegration revives a regional carry trade?13%
- GlobalWhat if Gulf SWFs rotate into local equities, Tadawul re-rates?13%
- IsraelWhat if Bank of Israel defends a wartime shekel?13%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey inflation breaks lower toward 20 percent?13%
- LebanonWhat if Lebanon restructuring unlocks frozen deposits?13%
- GlobalWhat if Petro-dollar recycling resumes, dollar firms?13%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentine farmers hoard soy, withholding export dollars?13%
- PakistanWhat if Pakistan default scare as a coupon payment date looms?13%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan grey-market premium signals an imminent devaluation?13%
- BangladeshWhat if Kerb-market dollar premium signals Bangladesh FX stress?13%
- Sri LankaWhat if SOE-loss drag reopens Sri Lanka's fiscal sustainability gap?13%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka inflation re-acceleration forces CBSL to pause?13%
- PakistanWhat if Pakistan domestic-debt rollover stress lifts T-bill yields?13%
- BangladeshWhat if Labor-unrest and wage shock hits Bangladesh garment competitiveness?13%
- Sri LankaWhat if Sri Lanka energy-tariff pass-through reignites inflation?13%
- HungaryWhat if MNB FX-swap stress spikes forint funding costs?13%
- RomaniaWhat if Disorderly leu break drives a Romanian funding scare?13%
- Romania, BelgiumWhat if Romania EU-funds suspension over deficit rules?13%
- RussiaWhat if Remittance slump from Russia hits Uzbek consumption?13%
- KazakhstanWhat if Frontier risk-off strands Uzbek and Kazakh inflows?13%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia restructuring stalemate over comparability with bondholders?13%
- GlobalWhat if Parallel-market premium blowout pre-announces an EM devaluation?13%
- Italy, European UnionWhat if Italy debt sustainability questioned as ECB QT shrinks the bid?13%
- United KingdomWhat if UK loses single-A footing as debt-to-GDP grinds past 110%?13%
- France, United Kingdom +1What if Synchronized DM term-premium shock repriced across all G7 curves?13%
- GlobalWhat if US debt spiral self-reinforces: higher yields, wider deficit, repeat?13%
- JapanWhat if Japan's debt math cracks if 10y JGB clears 2%?13%
- Italy, European UnionWhat if ECB QT shrinks the BTP buyer just as a maturity wall lands?13%
- United KingdomWhat if UK gilt remit balloons, DMO struggles to place long-dated supply?13%
- GlobalWhat if Auction strike spreads from one DM market to another via RV desks?13%
- United KingdomWhat if Sticky UK inflation: services CPI keeps the BoE hawkish into stall?13%
- GlobalWhat if Higher-for-longer regime: real yields anchor above 2.5% for years?13%
- JapanWhat if Japan exits deflation: BoJ normalizes, global yields drift higher?13%
- GlobalWhat if US inflation runs hot at over 1% in a single month?12%
- GlobalWhat if surging wages reignite a wage-price spiral?12%
- ChinaWhat if hidden outflows drain $150bn from China's reserves in a quarter?12%
- United KingdomWhat if the pension-fund margin-call cascade of 2022 returns?12%
- United KingdomWhat if a second Scottish independence vote is scheduled?12%
- NetherlandsWhat if net contributors led by the Netherlands block the next EU budget?12%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina scraps the peso and adopts the dollar?12%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina abolishes the peso and dollarises its economy?12%
- ChinaWhat if China caps its dollar reserves?12%
- China, Japan +1What if Asian central banks intervene jointly in currencies?12%
- United KingdomWhat if an unfunded UK budget triggers a gilt-downgrade shock?12%
- GlobalWhat if California revives IOUs to pay its bills?12%
- GlobalWhat if the 2s10s inversion persists for more than two years?12%
- United StatesWhat if inflation reaccelerates toward 5% and forces the Fed to resume rate hikes?12%
- United KingdomWhat if a UK fiscal wobble pushes the 30-year gilt yield above 6%?12%
- JapanWhat if BoJ normalization sends the 10-year JGB yield up 100bp toward 2.5%?12%
- GermanyWhat if Germany suspends its debt brake and a big Bund-issuance step-up lifts term premia?12%
- BrazilWhat if Brazilian bank problem loans surge toward the BCB's 16% stress peak?12%
- BrazilWhat if falling iron ore, soy and oil prices undercut Brazil's terms of trade?12%
- MexicoWhat if a joint Mexico and Pemex downgrade to junk triggers a 20% peso depreciation?12%
- South AfricaWhat if platinum, gold and coal prices collapse and undercut South Africa's exports?12%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey's FX-protected KKM deposits unwind disorderly and drain reserves?12%
- IndiaWhat if an Indian shadow-bank failure freezes NBFC wholesale funding markets?12%
- IndonesiaWhat if a global risk-off triggers capital flight and rupiah weakness in Indonesia?12%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina slides toward another sovereign default as reserves run dry?12%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan devalues the rupee sharply under IMF conditionality and spikes inflation?12%
- Switzerland, PolandWhat if Swiss-franc mortgage court rulings force large legal provisions at Polish banks?12%
- GlobalWhat if China's property trust loans default en masse and hit retail investors?12%
- GlobalWhat if LGFV restructuring losses erode China's big state banks' capital buffers?12%
- GlobalWhat if losses on China's high-yield asset-management products spark a confidence shock?12%
- GlobalWhat if a mid-tier Chinese bank requires a state rescue over hidden property losses?12%
- ChinaWhat if the yuan breaks 8.0 per dollar in a disorderly slide?12%
- Hong KongWhat if capital flight and emigration erode Hong Kong's status as a financial hub?12%
- Hong KongWhat if high peg-driven rates trigger a wave of Hong Kong corporate defaults?12%
- ChinaWhat if a Chinese financial crisis triggers a global flight to safety?12%
- China, Hong KongWhat if Hong Kong IPO volumes and asset-management inflows collapse on China uncertainty?12%
- GlobalWhat if China's national bad banks are overwhelmed by distressed property and LGFV assets?12%
- ChinaWhat if markets stop trusting the PBoC's daily yuan-fixing as a depreciation anchor?12%
- China, JapanWhat if China enters a Japan-style lost decade of sub-3% growth and deflation?12%
- ChinaWhat if foreign outflows via Stock Connect spiral as China-stability fears mount?12%
- GlobalWhat if forced mergers of failing Chinese rural banks crystallize heavy losses?12%
- GlobalWhat if China's consumer downgrade toward cheaper goods becomes structurally entrenched?12%
- China, Hong KongWhat if Chinese and Hong Kong developer equities are effectively wiped out in restructurings?12%
- GlobalWhat if a wave of offshore developer-bond restructurings keeps Asia credit in chronic distress?12%
- ChinaWhat if foreign investors dump Chinese government bonds on yuan-depreciation fears?12%
- GlobalWhat if tier-3 city housing oversupply in China crystallizes as a permanent capital loss?12%
- GlobalWhat if mass layoffs across China's property and construction sectors spike unemployment?12%
- ChinaWhat if a China hard landing routs AUD, BRL and other commodity-linked currencies?12%
- ChinaWhat if a protracted China downturn forces sweeping growth downgrades across EM Asia?12%
- GlobalWhat if euro-area inflation stays stuck near 9% and fails to converge to target?12%
- China, GermanyWhat if the EV transition, Chinese competition and tariffs cut German vehicle output sharply?12%
- GermanyWhat if inflation and energy bills drive German consumer spending materially lower?12%
- United KingdomWhat if a renewed surge in UK food and energy inflation tips the economy into recession?12%
- GlobalWhat if a fresh energy and geopolitical shock sends euro-area confidence to GFC-era lows?12%
- European UnionWhat if a fresh energy shock pushes euro-area inflation back above 5% and halts ECB cuts?12%
- European UnionWhat if simultaneous energy and food supply shocks deliver a textbook stagflationary hit to the euro area?12%
- JapanWhat if persistent inflation forces the BoJ toward a 1.75% policy rate far beyond market pricing?12%
- United States, South KoreaWhat if a dollar-funding squeeze widens Korea's cross-currency basis and forces a Fed swap-line request?12%
- South KoreaWhat if a simultaneous chip downturn and real-estate PF crisis hits Korea at the same time?12%
- South KoreaWhat if the end of Korean SME loan forbearance triggers a surge in insolvencies?12%
- United States, South KoreaWhat if the BoK is forced to cut rates into a slump despite won weakness and Fed rate differentials?12%
- South KoreaWhat if synchronized falls in chip, auto and petrochemical exports tip Korea into recession?12%
- IndiaWhat if an Indian microfinance over-indebtedness crisis hits small-finance banks reliant on bank funding?12%
- SingaporeWhat if Singapore suffers a trade-driven deep recession with equities down 46% and property 25%?12%
- Hong KongWhat if capital outflows push the Hong Kong dollar to its weak-side 7.85 peg limit, spiking HIBOR?12%
- China, Hong KongWhat if rising China property defaults surge through Hong Kong banks' mainland exposure?12%
- IndonesiaWhat if Bank Indonesia is forced into an emergency rate-hiking cycle to defend the rupiah?12%
- China, IndonesiaWhat if a China demand slump crashes thermal-coal prices and hits Indonesia's largest export?12%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysian banking-system impaired loans climb toward 9% in a recession?12%
- SwitzerlandWhat if a global risk-off wave drives a sharp safe-haven surge in the Swiss franc?12%
- SwedenWhat if a risk-off shock drives the Swedish krona sharply lower, importing inflation?12%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if low oil and rising provisions erode Saudi bank capital below minimum thresholds?12%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if a synchronized global recession erodes UAE bank capital from 14% toward 11%?12%
- GlobalWhat if an oil price collapse and global recession hit GCC budgets and banks simultaneously?12%
- NigeriaWhat if low oil revenue forces further naira devaluation and fuel-subsidy cuts?12%
- GlobalWhat if climate damage raises the cost of capital for tropical economies?12%
- GlobalWhat if flooding and saltwater intrusion cut rice output across Asian river deltas?12%
- GlobalWhat if compounding hurricanes push small-island states toward debt distress?12%
- India, BangladeshWhat if a severe cyclone strikes the densely populated Bay of Bengal coast?12%
- GlobalWhat if a major hurricane overwhelms Florida's insurer of last resort?12%
- JapanWhat if typhoons and heat damage Japan's rice and produce harvests?12%
- Poland, HungaryWhat if PLN and HUF slide on a Suwalki scare?12%
- United States, IranWhat if Oil-shock stagflation forces a Fed hawkish hold?12%
- GlobalWhat if Gulf de-dollarization pilot unsettles the petro-dollar?12%
- IsraelWhat if Israeli credit downgrade on open-ended war spending?12%
- GlobalWhat if Second G7 reserve seizure triggers USD-confidence loss?12%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt T-bill yields tumble as foreign carry money floods in?12%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt hot-money exodus reopens the pound's devaluation gap?12%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt debt-service ratio breaches a sustainability red line?12%
- Turkey, EgyptWhat if Oil-price collapse drains the Gulf-to-EM recycling pipeline?12%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey snap policy U-turn triggers a fresh lira run?12%
- IndiaWhat if RBI front-loads dollar buying to cap rupee appreciation?12%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia Penang/Johor semis FDI tops $25bn in a year?12%
- ThailandWhat if Thai gold-export surge drains baht liquidity, BoT intervenes?12%
- China, PhilippinesWhat if South China Sea flare-up spikes Philippine risk premium?12%
- China, Indonesia +3What if China hard-landing drags commodity-linked ASEAN exporters?12%
- ChinaWhat if AI automation hollows ASEAN low-end manufacturing jobs?12%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia political defection topples unity government?12%
- Russia, KazakhstanWhat if Russia weaponizes CPC access to pressure Astana?12%
- KazakhstanWhat if Foreign investors flee Kazakhstan over contract disputes?12%
- GlobalWhat if Central-bank gold buying tops 1,000t for a fourth straight year?12%
- GlobalWhat if Gold-backed BRICS settlement proposal jolts bullion bid?12%
- GlobalWhat if Weak-dollar regime lifts the whole precious-metals complex?12%
- GlobalWhat if Precious metals jump on a US sovereign-rating downgrade?12%
- United StatesWhat if Gold and silver gap up on a sudden Fed dovish surprise?12%
- ItalyWhat if Redenomination premium resurfaces in periphery CDS basis?12%
- United KingdomWhat if UK bond vigilantes punish a giveaway Budget, sterling sells off?12%
- Germany, FranceWhat if French snap election delivers a fiscal stalemate, OAT-Bund tops 120bp?12%
- Germany, ItalyWhat if Italy-EU budget standoff revives BTP redenomination premium?12%
- United StatesWhat if De-anchored expectations: a Fed credibility shock spikes breakevens?12%
- GlobalWhat if Inflate-away the debt: tolerated 4% inflation erodes real liabilities?12%
- United StatesWhat if Sticky-core, soft-headline split: Fed trapped by divergent gauges?12%
- GlobalWhat if Dollar wrecking-ball deflation: surging DXY tightens global conditions?12%
- GlobalWhat if Payrolls miss recession scare: a weak jobs print triggers a scramble?12%
- GlobalWhat if Wage-price spiral entrenchment: indexation locks in 5% inflation?12%
- GlobalWhat if Negative-rates redux: a major central bank cuts below zero again?12%
- United StatesWhat if Policy-rate overshoot reversal: deep cuts as the economy cracks?12%
- United StatesWhat if Fed delivers a surprise 50bp cut to get ahead of the curve?12%
- JapanWhat if BOJ intervenes to defend a sliding yen past a line in the sand?12%
- JapanWhat if Coordinated US-Japan FX intervention defends the yen at extremes?12%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed caps long-end yields with yield-curve control?11%
- JapanWhat if a 30-year Japanese government bond auction fails?11%
- KenyaWhat if a Kenyan bank failure sparks deposit runs?11%
- GlobalWhat if the G7 jointly devalues an overvalued dollar?11%
- GlobalWhat if central banks set formal dollar-cap and gold targets?11%
- GlobalWhat if a major central bank abandons forward guidance?11%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed is pressured to cap yields and monetize debt?11%
- JapanWhat if Tokyo openly directs the Bank of Japan to absorb new debt?11%
- United KingdomWhat if the BoE holds Bank Rate above 5% to fight sticky services inflation?11%
- United StatesWhat if Treasury-market dysfunction forces the Fed to halt quantitative tightening?11%
- GlobalWhat if the EU issues large joint defense bonds and periphery spreads widen anyway?11%
- United StatesWhat if US defense and entitlement spending push the structural deficit durably higher?11%
- GlobalWhat if markets price a fiscal-dominance regime where deficits constrain central banks?11%
- GlobalWhat if US 30-year yields breach 6% for the first time since the 1990s?11%
- MexicoWhat if nearshoring FDI into Mexico reverses on USMCA uncertainty and tariff threats?11%
- MexicoWhat if a global risk-off unwinds the crowded Mexican peso carry trade abruptly?11%
- South AfricaWhat if the rand crashes more than 20% and forces the SARB into a defensive rate hike?11%
- PhilippinesWhat if a strong dollar and weaker remittances squeeze Philippine banks' FX liquidity?11%
- BrazilWhat if falling soft-commodity prices push Brazilian agribusiness into a default cycle?11%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina's IMF program goes off track and revives default risk?11%
- ChinaWhat if China's banking system needs a sovereign-funded recapitalization?11%
- China, Thailand +2What if a China financial crisis reverses outbound investment into Vietnam and ASEAN?11%
- ChinaWhat if capital flight pushes China toward a balance-of-payments deficit?11%
- United KingdomWhat if UK CPI re-accelerates toward double digits and forces the BoE to halt cuts?11%
- European UnionWhat if euro-area wage growth accelerates above 5% and entrenches a wage-price spiral?11%
- European UnionWhat if euro-area banks tighten credit standards at the fastest pace since 2011?11%
- European UnionWhat if the ECB restarts rate hikes after inflation re-accelerates?11%
- United KingdomWhat if a twin deficit shock sends sterling toward 1.10 against the dollar?11%
- FranceWhat if French corporate investment freezes on high financing costs and political uncertainty?11%
- China, GermanyWhat if Germany's export model stalls on weak Chinese demand, US tariffs and high energy costs?11%
- GermanyWhat if Germany's debt brake limits counter-cyclical spending and deepens a recession?11%
- GlobalWhat if high financing costs drive a sharp drop in euro-area business investment?11%
- GlobalWhat if bond losses force a wave of distressed Japanese regional-bank mergers under FSA pressure?11%
- GlobalWhat if a market crash reverses the household equity flows Japan's expanded NISA attracted?11%
- China, South KoreaWhat if a demand air-pocket in Korean EV batteries and shipbuilding sours supply-chain credit?11%
- Japan, South KoreaWhat if a sharp won-yen cross move disrupts Korean exporters' competitiveness versus Japan?11%
- IndiaWhat if a global risk-off episode triggers a sudden stop in foreign portfolio flows to India?11%
- Hong KongWhat if a peg-defense liquidity drain spikes HIBOR by 200bp, squeezing Hong Kong property investors?11%
- China, Hong KongWhat if China's property downturn transmits directly into Hong Kong bank loan books through developer exposure?11%
- IndonesiaWhat if a commodity bust and high rates drive a surge in Indonesian bank bad loans?11%
- MalaysiaWhat if falling palm-oil and LNG prices cut Malaysian export and fiscal revenue?11%
- China, Japan +3What if a broad dollar funding squeeze hits Asia-ex-China banks simultaneously?11%
- CanadaWhat if a deep Canadian recession sends the TSX down roughly 36%?11%
- CanadaWhat if provisions for credit losses surge across Canada's Big Six banks?11%
- SwedenWhat if a global trade slump and weak euro-area demand tip Sweden into recession?11%
- SwedenWhat if the Riksbank must ease into a property downturn even as a weak krona stokes inflation?11%
- NorwayWhat if a trade-war stress scenario pushes most Norwegian banks below their capital requirements?11%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if low oil opens a financing gap in Saudi Arabia's NEOM and giga-project plans?11%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if repeated low-oil deficits push Saudi external debt and bond spreads sharply higher?11%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if mounting deficits prompt a negative outlook on Saudi Arabia's sovereign credit rating?11%
- Saudi Arabia, United Arab EmiratesWhat if prolonged low oil forces larger fiscal transfers from Abu Dhabi's sovereign funds?11%
- United StatesWhat if dollar pegs force GCC economies to import Fed rate hikes during a low-oil downturn?11%
- GlobalWhat if Bahrain faces acute fiscal stress and spreads widen sharply in a low-oil scenario?11%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if low oil curbs Gulf deposits and investment in Egypt and pressures the pound?11%
- China, AngolaWhat if low oil pushes heavily China-indebted Angola back toward debt distress?11%
- NorwayWhat if a combined oil drop and equity bear market shrinks Norway's petroleum revenue and fund together?11%
- GlobalWhat if markets begin discounting Gulf long-run oil revenue as the energy transition accelerates?11%
- South Korea, TaiwanWhat if a global AI-capex bust hammers Asian supply-chain equities from TSMC to Samsung?11%
- JapanWhat if yen-carry liquidation spikes the VIX above 50 again?11%
- BrazilWhat if a Brazilian fiscal scare collapses the real carry trade past 6.50/USD?11%
- MexicoWhat if the Mexican peso carry trade unwinds past 22/USD?11%
- GlobalWhat if a surging dollar pushes EM sovereign dollar debt toward distress?11%
- United StatesWhat if higher-for-longer Fed rates grind EM FX and dollar-debt costs steadily worse?11%
- GlobalWhat if the EU carbon border tax makes EM steel exports uncompetitive?11%
- Chile, Peru +1What if Andean glacier loss cuts water supply for cities, farms, and mines?11%
- GlobalWhat if a climate-driven crop failure forces a large emerging economy to import food?11%
- GlobalWhat if a Southern Africa drought collapses hydropower and maize output at once?11%
- IranWhat if Oil-spike inflation scare repriced across rates curves?11%
- GlobalWhat if BRICS gold-backed settlement unit launches?11%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt slides toward a debt restructuring as rollover stalls?11%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines remittance shock as Gulf/US migrant demand cools?11%
- TaiwanWhat if Taiwan-strait shock freezes ASEAN semis and trade flows?11%
- MalaysiaWhat if Ringgit overshoots stronger, BNM caps export competitiveness?11%
- China, Thailand +2What if ASEAN tourism reliance backfires as China outbound stalls?11%
- ThailandWhat if Baht crash on tourism-shock-plus-political-crisis combo?11%
- United States, IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia bond-market exodus on global-yield spike?11%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia subsidy-reform reversal reignites fiscal-slippage fear?11%
- GlobalWhat if Hawkish hold shock: dot plot signals no cuts, real yields jump?11%
- GlobalWhat if Stop-go policy whipsaw: cut-pause-hike cycle whips volatility higher?11%
- United StatesWhat if Term-premium shock: 10y yield jumps 100bp on supply indigestion?11%
- GlobalWhat if Inflation-expectations un-anchoring: 5y5y breakeven breaks 3%?11%
- United StatesWhat if QT accident: reserves drain triggers a repo funding squeeze?11%
- GlobalWhat if Stealth tightening: conditions tighten without any rate hikes?11%
- GlobalWhat if Sticky-inflation taper tantrum: cut hopes dashed, EM FX sells off?11%
- GlobalWhat if Permanent inflation premium: term structure prices 3% forever?11%
- GlobalWhat if a wave of US municipal defaults stresses credit markets?10%
- JapanWhat if the Bank of Japan surprises with a hike to 1.5%?10%
- Germany, European UnionWhat if the ECB hikes rates straight into a recession?10%
- GreeceWhat if Greece's debt scare comes roaring back?10%
- SpainWhat if Catalonia stages another independence referendum?10%
- France, Italy +1What if Brussels fines France and Italy for breaching deficit rules?10%
- Germany, Italy +2What if eurozone depositors flee the periphery for German banks?10%
- GlobalWhat if traders start pricing in a euro breakup?10%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed badly misjudges inflation as it tops 5% again?10%
- IndiaWhat if India imposes capital controls to defend the rupee?10%
- European UnionWhat if a digital euro destabilises bank deposits?10%
- GlobalWhat if the US term premium surges 150 basis points?10%
- ChinaWhat if a Chinese province openly defaults despite Beijing?10%
- NorwayWhat if Norway starts drawing down its sovereign wealth fund?10%
- GlobalWhat if a violent bear steepening sends 10-year yields spiking 100 basis points?10%
- United StatesWhat if a hard landing triggers aggressive Fed cuts and a bull steepening of the curve?10%
- United StatesWhat if a hard landing forces the Fed to slash rates back to zero within a year?10%
- United StatesWhat if quantitative tightening drains reserves too low and forces the Fed to reverse course?10%
- GlobalWhat if 30-year US mortgage rates spike above 8%?10%
- ChinaWhat if collapsing Chinese land-sale revenue pushes local-government financing vehicles toward distress?10%
- GlobalWhat if central banks stay higher for longer and prolong global mortgage-reset shocks?10%
- CanadaWhat if the Bank of Canada stays restrictive longer and intensifies the mortgage renewal shock?10%
- GlobalWhat if markets price a US debt-sustainability premium as deficits stay near 7% of GDP?10%
- Germany, FranceWhat if French political deadlock pushes the OAT-Bund spread above 100bp?10%
- United KingdomWhat if foreign and domestic buyers step back from UK gilt auctions?10%
- JapanWhat if the Bank of Japan fully exits yield-curve control and the 10-year JGB gaps higher?10%
- FranceWhat if France's rearmament spending widens its deficit past 6% of GDP?10%
- Germany, European UnionWhat if euro-area real yields reprice sharply higher as the ECB holds restrictive?10%
- Germany, Italy +1What if an Italy-EU budget clash jolts the BTP-Bund spread above 250bp?10%
- United StatesWhat if sovereign wealth funds rotate out of long Treasuries into gold and bills?10%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed's operating losses halt Treasury remittances and spark political conflict?10%
- European UnionWhat if political pressure forces the ECB to finance fiscal and defense needs?10%
- BrazilWhat if Brazilian house prices fall 30-50% and erode mortgage collateral at banks?10%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil's debt approaches 100% of GDP and triggers a disorderly bond repricing?10%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkish banks face a sudden stop in external syndicated-loan rollover funding?10%
- IndiaWhat if Indian bank gross bad loans climb back toward double digits on retail stress?10%
- IndiaWhat if an oil-price spike widens India's current-account deficit and weakens the rupee?10%
- IndiaWhat if the Indian rupee slides to record lows and forces heavy RBI reserve intervention?10%
- IndonesiaWhat if a slump in coal, palm oil and nickel prices undercuts Indonesia's export earnings?10%
- PhilippinesWhat if the Philippine peso slides toward record lows and forces BSP intervention?10%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt's external debt-service burden raises restructuring risk as Gulf support strains?10%
- NigeriaWhat if falling oil output and prices undercut Nigeria's FX earnings and fiscal revenue?10%
- China, ChileWhat if a collapse in copper prices undercuts Chile's exports and widens the fiscal gap?10%
- GlobalWhat if a dollar surge squeezes EM dollar funding and forces reserve drawdowns across emerging markets?10%
- GlobalWhat if a volatility spike unwinds the crowded EM-FX carry trade en masse?10%
- ChinaWhat if a sharp China slowdown collapses commodity demand and hits EM exporters across three regions?10%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt's IMF program stalls and reopens the FX funding gap?10%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan's IMF arrangement collapses and pushes the sovereign toward default?10%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina re-enters debt-restructuring talks as bond payments prove unsustainable?10%
- GlobalWhat if Chinese tier-3 city property prices fall 50%?10%
- GlobalWhat if a wave of private-fund failures in China wipes out retail savings?10%
- ChinaWhat if China abandons its managed float and lets the yuan fall freely?10%
- Hong KongWhat if Hong Kong's GDP falls 8% in a combined property and contagion shock?10%
- Hong KongWhat if the HKD peg comes under heavy speculative attack?10%
- ChinaWhat if China's property, LGFV and shadow-bank stresses combine into a systemic crisis?10%
- ChinaWhat if falling asset returns blow a hole in Chinese insurers' and pension funds' balance sheets?10%
- China, JapanWhat if Chinese life insurers face a negative-spread crisis as investment yields fall below guarantees?10%
- GlobalWhat if a regulatory clean-up reveals Chinese bank NPLs are multiples of reported levels?10%
- GlobalWhat if shadow-bank losses migrate onto Chinese bank balance sheets via hidden guarantees?10%
- ChinaWhat if China's debt overhang and demographics entrench a middle-income trap?10%
- GlobalWhat if absorbing Chinese bank losses structurally lowers credit growth for years?10%
- GlobalWhat if China is forced into a systemic resolution of multiple large trust firms?10%
- ChinaWhat if HSBC and Standard Chartered book heavy provisions on China and Hong Kong loans?10%
- ChinaWhat if Beijing injects hundreds of billions into state banks to cover property losses?10%
- ChinaWhat if China's debt deleveraging permanently lowers its commodity and import intensity?10%
- GlobalWhat if a confidence shock drives Chinese households en masse from wealth products into gold?10%
- GlobalWhat if stress hits Chinese property, trust firms and regional banks simultaneously?10%
- ChinaWhat if sustained capital flight drains China's reserves toward critical levels?10%
- ChinaWhat if the PBoC pivots to QE-style bond buying to fight deflation and fund bank recaps?10%
- GlobalWhat if retail losses on defaulted Chinese trust products spark public protests?10%
- China, Hong KongWhat if the PBoC engineers an offshore-yuan liquidity squeeze to punish yuan shorts?10%
- GlobalWhat if China's all-out property rescue pivot fails to revive sales durably?10%
- GlobalWhat if real estate's outsized share of China's GDP undergoes a multi-year secular decline?10%
- GlobalWhat if the euro area suffers a 6% GDP drop while inflation stays near 10%?10%
- GermanyWhat if high energy prices trigger structural relocation of German industrial capacity abroad?10%
- FranceWhat if France's 6%-of-GDP deficit forces austerity into a weakening economy?10%
- ItalyWhat if sustained high gas prices push Italy's industrial north into prolonged contraction?10%
- United KingdomWhat if UK private-sector pay stays above 6% and keeps the BoE in restrictive territory?10%
- European UnionWhat if euro-area services inflation holds near 5% and frustrates the ECB's 2% target?10%
- United KingdomWhat if a double-digit fall in sterling drives UK import prices and CPI sharply higher?10%
- GlobalWhat if euro-area 10-year yields surge 280bp and crush bank bond portfolios?10%
- United KingdomWhat if the Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 6% to fight double-digit inflation?10%
- European UnionWhat if euro-area real yields climb above 1.5% and compress equity valuations?10%
- FranceWhat if soaring costs to maintain France's ageing nuclear fleet drag on growth and public finances?10%
- FranceWhat if indexed wage rises push French unit labour costs higher and entrench above-target inflation?10%
- United KingdomWhat if persistent uncertainty and high rates drive UK business investment sharply lower?10%
- European UnionWhat if markets abandon ECB easing bets and Euribor reprices sharply higher?10%
- GlobalWhat if drought and high input costs push euro-area food inflation back into double digits?10%
- United KingdomWhat if persistent weak investment leads the OBR to mark down UK potential growth?10%
- JapanWhat if a bear steepener pushes 30- and 40-year JGB yields up 80-120bp on fiscal credibility fears?10%
- JapanWhat if the JGB term premium blows out as Japan's debt sustainability comes into doubt?10%
- JapanWhat if Japan's aging population strains public and corporate pension funding?10%
- GlobalWhat if the Korean won slides disorderly toward 1,600 per dollar on a foreign equity-outflow stampede?10%
- South KoreaWhat if rising Korean credit-card delinquencies echo the 2003 card crisis and freeze card-issuer funding?10%
- South KoreaWhat if an unwind of won-funded carry trades spikes Korean short-term funding costs?10%
- South KoreaWhat if renewed won depreciation reignites Korean import-price inflation, forcing BoK to hold rates?10%
- IndiaWhat if a major Indian housing-finance company faces a funding run as CP rollovers fail?10%
- IndiaWhat if India's large bank funding exposure to NBFCs transmits NBFC losses onto bank balance sheets?10%
- IndiaWhat if fresh Indian corporate slippages force another large government recapitalization of PSU banks?10%
- IndiaWhat if Indian NBFCs' reliance on short-term CP seizes up in a post-IL&FS-style liquidity drought?10%
- IndiaWhat if an Indian conglomerate's funding crisis forces banks and LIC to mark down concentrated exposures?10%
- IndiaWhat if Indian real-estate developers face renewed funding stress as NBFC lending to the sector dries up?10%
- IndiaWhat if a simultaneous oil spike and EM outflow forces the RBI to tighten into an Indian slowdown?10%
- IndiaWhat if a fast-growing Indian consumer-lending NBFC blows up on under-provisioned unsecured loans?10%
- China, SingaporeWhat if a China hard landing transmits through Singapore's entrepot trade and wealth-management hub?10%
- SingaporeWhat if global trade fragmentation durably reduces throughput at Singapore's port and refining complex?10%
- China, Hong KongWhat if a US-China trade war collapses Hong Kong's re-export and logistics volumes?10%
- IndonesiaWhat if a sovereign-bank stress spike drives Indonesian government bond yields up 500 basis points?10%
- IndonesiaWhat if a nickel-price crash impairs Indonesia's heavy mining and smelter loan books?10%
- IndonesiaWhat if a palm-oil price slump cuts Indonesian planter cash flows and rural credit quality?10%
- IndonesiaWhat if foreign investors exit Indonesian government bonds en masse, spiking yields?10%
- IndonesiaWhat if falling commodity prices leave Indonesia reliant on volatile inflows to fund its deficit?10%
- IndonesiaWhat if a commodity crash and rupiah sudden stop hit Indonesia simultaneously?10%
- IndonesiaWhat if commodity-region downturns concentrate losses at Indonesia's regional development banks?10%
- MalaysiaWhat if a risk-off wave triggers heavy foreign outflows from Malaysian bonds and equities?10%
- MalaysiaWhat if a trade and commodity-driven recession pushes Malaysian corporate loan losses higher?10%
- South Korea, Malaysia +1What if a deep semiconductor downturn stresses banks across Korea, Singapore and Malaysia together?10%
- Indonesia, MalaysiaWhat if a broad commodity downcycle weakens currencies and bank asset quality across Asia?10%
- SwitzerlandWhat if Swiss equities fall about 46% in a severe global risk-off scenario?10%
- SwitzerlandWhat if Credit Suisse integration costs overshoot just as FINMA tightens UBS capital requirements?10%
- SwitzerlandWhat if the SNB cuts policy rates back below zero to counter franc strength?10%
- SwedenWhat if a dollar-funding squeeze seizes up Swedish banks' heavy FX-swap reliance?10%
- Sweden, Norway +1What if high household debt across Sweden, Norway and Denmark amplifies a synchronized housing slump?10%
- DenmarkWhat if a euro-area trade slowdown hits Denmark's open, pharma- and shipping-heavy economy?10%
- GlobalWhat if low oil and capital outflows force SAMA to run down reserves to defend the riyal?10%
- GlobalWhat if a prolonged oil slump causes markets to price a non-trivial riyal devaluation risk?10%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if a low-oil confidence shock prompts large Saudi depositors to shift balances abroad?10%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if a prolonged oil slump drives SAMA reserves below the IMF's peg-defense comfort threshold?10%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if a low-oil downturn raises arrears on Saudi Arabia's rapidly grown mortgage book?10%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if UAE banks face a 60-day deposit run with frozen wholesale funding?10%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if default of a single large borrower breaches UAE bank concentration limits?10%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if low oil and capital outflows force the UAE to drain reserves to hold the dirham peg?10%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if a dirham outflow episode tightens interbank liquidity and drives EIBOR sharply higher?10%
- United StatesWhat if multiple GCC central banks must burn reserves and raise rates to defend dollar pegs together?10%
- IranWhat if a sustained oil slump pressures Oman's fiscal position and rial peg?10%
- PakistanWhat if reduced Gulf remittances and support squeeze Pakistan's external position?10%
- RussiaWhat if lower prices and a tighter price cap compress Russian oil budget revenue and weaken the ruble?10%
- European UnionWhat if a gas price spike tips energy-intensive European industry into recession?10%
- IraqWhat if Brent well below Iraq's fiscal breakeven strains public wages and revives political risk?10%
- NorwayWhat if a sharp oil price drop weakens the Norwegian krone and complicates Norges Bank policy?10%
- Netherlands, European UnionWhat if a US AI correction drags European semiconductor and software names sharply lower?10%
- United KingdomWhat if UK pension portfolios exposed to US AI mega-caps take large losses in a correction?10%
- JapanWhat if the AI-capex bust the BoJ warned about hits Japanese chip-equipment exporters?10%
- JapanWhat if the Bank of Japan hikes faster than expected and detonates the short-yen trade?10%
- GlobalWhat if BRL, MXN, ZAR and IDR sell off together as carry baskets unwind?10%
- ChinaWhat if dollar pressure pushes USD/CNY past 7.50 and revives devaluation fears?10%
- United StatesWhat if a US inflation surprise forces the Fed to re-hike and spikes the dollar?10%
- GlobalWhat if fragmented climate policy drains green finance away from emerging markets?10%
- GlobalWhat if net-zero demand destruction strands the fiscal base of oil-dependent sovereigns?10%
- GlobalWhat if high EU carbon costs accelerate industrial hollowing-out and carbon leakage?10%
- ChinaWhat if China's young coal-fleet faces stranding under a credible decarbonisation path?10%
- GlobalWhat if rising uninsured disaster losses shift reconstruction costs onto governments?10%
- GlobalWhat if rating agencies downgrade sovereigns exposed to chronic climate risk?10%
- GlobalWhat if rising catastrophe frequency lifts sovereign retained-loss budgets?10%
- European UnionWhat if a record EU flood-and-fire year strains disaster-aid budgets?10%
- JapanWhat if JGB auction tail sparks fear of Japanese fiscal dominance?10%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt forced into a fresh devaluation?10%
- GlobalWhat if Twin oil-and-war shock strains Gulf pegs?10%
- Turkey, LebanonWhat if Lebanon hyperinflation forces full dollarization?10%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey snap rate cut triggers a fresh lira run?10%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey net reserves turn positive, lira de-risks?10%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey imposes de facto capital controls to stop the lira?10%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey draws nearshoring FDI as a Europe-adjacent base?10%
- GlobalWhat if Gulf peg-speculation spike on a deep oil air-pocket?10%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia free-meals program crowds out productive spending?10%
- ThailandWhat if Thai oil-import bill swells on Brent spike, baht slides?10%
- ThailandWhat if Thai-Cambodia border conflict spikes regional risk premium?10%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines inflation re-acceleration forces BSP back to hikes?10%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippines disaster-driven fiscal blowout widens deficit?10%
- China, IndiaWhat if ASEAN FDI diverted to India undercuts China+1 thesis?10%
- GlobalWhat if Stagflation-lite: 3% inflation meets 0% growth, policy is stuck?10%
- GlobalWhat if Policy-error overtightening: real rates choke a healthy expansion?10%
- GlobalWhat if Jobs-report shock: a blowout payroll kills the cut narrative?10%
- GlobalWhat if a debt jubilee wipes out student and household loans?9%
- Germany, European UnionWhat if the ECB imposes an explicit ceiling on Bund yields?9%
- GlobalWhat if buyers strike at the 30-year Treasury auction?9%
- AustraliaWhat if a central bank's yield-curve-control peg breaks?9%
- European UnionWhat if the ECB cuts rates deeply negative again?9%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed restarts quantitative easing to backstop dysfunctional markets?9%
- GlobalWhat if long-run inflation expectations de-anchor and force a punitive policy response?9%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed cuts and then is forced to re-hike as inflation rebounds?9%
- AustraliaWhat if the RBA holds rates elevated and prolongs variable-rate pain for Australian households?9%
- SwedenWhat if Riksbank tightening passes rapidly through Sweden's short-fixation mortgages?9%
- NorwayWhat if Norges Bank tightening passes almost fully into Norway's floating-rate mortgages?9%
- United StatesWhat if a US 30-year Treasury auction fails to attract enough buyers?9%
- GlobalWhat if a periphery political shock revives euro break-up pricing?9%
- United KingdomWhat if a UK defense-spending surge toward 3% of GDP lifts the gilt term premium?9%
- GlobalWhat if long-run inflation expectations drift higher and central-bank credibility erodes?9%
- GlobalWhat if advanced-economy sovereign downgrades hit in a synchronized wave?9%
- United StatesWhat if a disorderly US fiscal-cliff fight spikes deficit uncertainty and bill-market volatility?9%
- Germany, FranceWhat if a French snap election pushes the OAT-Bund spread to multi-decade wides?9%
- GermanyWhat if defense and transition issuance structurally re-rates the Bund term premium higher?9%
- GlobalWhat if markets embed a permanently higher fiscal-risk premium as debt ratios plateau at historic highs?9%
- GlobalWhat if higher-for-longer rates compound fiscal strain as advanced economies roll into far higher coupons?9%
- BrazilWhat if a Covid-scale global slump pushes Brazilian bank problem loans toward 16%?9%
- BrazilWhat if a debenture-market freeze pushes over-leveraged Brazilian corporates toward default?9%
- TurkeyWhat if removal of Turkish bank regulatory forbearance in 2026 exposes a capital cliff?9%
- IndiaWhat if India's microfinance boom turns into a delinquency wave as leverage peaks?9%
- IndonesiaWhat if a US yield surge sparks a taper-tantrum-style rupiah sell-off like 2013?9%
- EgyptWhat if Egyptian banks' heavy sovereign-bond exposure triggers a fiscal-bank doom loop?9%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia breaches its fiscal rule and risks losing its investment-grade rating?9%
- BrazilWhat if a confidence shock drives deposit flight from Brazilian banks toward dollars and Tesouro Direto?9%
- Brazil, Chile +1What if a commodity-price slump batters EM exporters' terms of trade?9%
- ChinaWhat if China suffers a domestic Lehman moment from a major institutional failure?9%
- GlobalWhat if a disorderly yuan devaluation triggers 1997-style Asian currency contagion?9%
- ChinaWhat if China faces a twin currency-and-banking crisis at the same time?9%
- ChinaWhat if defaults across LGFVs, SOEs and trusts shatter China's implicit-guarantee regime?9%
- GlobalWhat if trade fragmentation drives a 6% cumulative GDP fall across the euro area?9%
- United KingdomWhat if chronically weak UK productivity and high rates lock the economy into near-zero growth?9%
- ItalyWhat if Italy falls back into a chronic near-zero growth stagnation trap?9%
- ItalyWhat if a recession revives non-performing loan formation on Italian bank balance sheets?9%
- JapanWhat if energy deindustrialisation and chronic underinvestment lock Europe into a lost decade?9%
- United KingdomWhat if UK growth stalls near zero while CPI lingers around 5% in entrenched stagflation?9%
- European UnionWhat if fresh inflation forces the ECB to abruptly pause or reverse planned rate cuts?9%
- United KingdomWhat if sterling trades at a persistent stagflation discount and amplifies UK import costs?9%
- SpainWhat if Spain's reliance on LNG imports and a weak euro re-accelerate inflation despite resilient tourism?9%
- United KingdomWhat if a weak pound and poor harvests drive UK food inflation sharply higher?9%
- GermanyWhat if Germany's debt brake keeps growth structurally weak even as defence and infrastructure needs mount?9%
- ItalyWhat if persistently high energy costs erode the competitiveness of Italy's manufacturing exporters?9%
- JapanWhat if a disorderly YCC exit causes JGB liquidity to evaporate and bid-ask spreads to blow out?9%
- United States, JapanWhat if US and Japanese yields jump 150bp simultaneously and TOPIX falls 40%?9%
- JapanWhat if Japanese banks absorb simultaneous JGB, foreign-bond and equity losses as yields rise?9%
- JapanWhat if US 10-year yields grind to 6% and transmit a foreign-rates shock onto Japanese bank books?9%
- GlobalWhat if regional banks, shinkin and cooperatives all de-risk foreign bonds simultaneously?9%
- GlobalWhat if combined bond and credit losses force public capital injections into multiple Japanese regional banks?9%
- China, JapanWhat if escalating semiconductor export controls disrupt Japan's chip-equipment exports?9%
- JapanWhat if markets doubt Japan's firepower to sustain FX intervention as the yen slides?9%
- JapanWhat if a global trade slowdown hits Japan's shipping and heavy-industry borrowers?9%
- JapanWhat if a global capex downturn hits Japan's capital-goods and automation exporters?9%
- JapanWhat if a BoJ credibility crisis triggers a self-reinforcing yen sell-off and inflation jump?9%
- South KoreaWhat if Korea's National Pension Service FX-hedging flows amplify won volatility in risk-off episodes?9%
- South KoreaWhat if losses in Korea's NBFI sector spill into commercial banks through interbank linkages?9%
- IndiaWhat if simultaneous crude, gold and edible-oil spikes blow out India's current-account deficit?9%
- IndiaWhat if a large Indian cooperative-bank failure triggers depositor panic across weak co-ops?9%
- IndiaWhat if the RBI is forced to keep real rates high to defend the rupee and anchor inflation?9%
- IndiaWhat if a working-capital squeeze on Indian MSMEs lifts defaults across bank and NBFC SME books?9%
- IndiaWhat if a fiscal-slippage scare spikes Indian 10-year government bond yields sharply?9%
- IndiaWhat if persistent rupee defense erodes India's import-cover ratio and sparks reserve anxiety?9%
- IndiaWhat if lower-rated Indian NBFCs are shut out of bond and CP markets, triggering a credit crunch?9%
- IndiaWhat if an Indian credit-cycle bust reverses years of financial deepening and slows NBFC credit?9%
- IndiaWhat if a monsoon failure lifts Indian agricultural-loan delinquencies and farm-waiver fiscal pressure?9%
- IndiaWhat if India's shift to expected-credit-loss provisioning forces a one-time capital hit on banks?9%
- United States, IndiaWhat if a hawkish Fed surprise gaps the rupee weaker through the RBI's tolerance band?9%
- SingaporeWhat if a global trade-finance contraction hits Singapore's role as Asia's commodity-finance hub?9%
- SingaporeWhat if a global semiconductor downturn hits Singapore's manufacturing and re-exports?9%
- Hong KongWhat if Hong Kong's GDP contracts nearly 9% as trade, tourism and property collapse together?9%
- Hong KongWhat if Hong Kong's international financial-hub status erodes structurally, accelerating capital outflows?9%
- Hong KongWhat if the HKD peg forces Hong Kong to import high US rates into a property downturn?9%
- IndonesiaWhat if a sharp rupiah depreciation inflates the cost of Indonesian corporate dollar debt?9%
- United States, IndonesiaWhat if a hawkish Fed surprise hits the rupiah hardest among ASEAN currencies?9%
- IndonesiaWhat if a prolonged commodity downcycle creates a fiscal cliff for Indonesia?9%
- United States, MalaysiaWhat if a hawkish Fed drives outflows from Malaysia's open bond market and spikes yields?9%
- India, South Korea +2What if a synchronized sudden stop drives capital out of Korea, India, Indonesia and Malaysia at once?9%
- United States, Indonesia +1What if a Fed surprise and dollar surge cascade through Asian currencies all at once?9%
- CanadaWhat if Canada's GDP falls 5% and unemployment hits 9% in an IMF-FSAP severe scenario?9%
- SwitzerlandWhat if a surging franc inflicts large valuation losses on the SNB's foreign-exchange-heavy balance sheet?9%
- SwitzerlandWhat if a strong franc and weak euro-area demand push Swiss exporters into margin compression?9%
- SwedenWhat if stress in Sweden's covered-bond market widens spreads and tightens mortgage credit?9%
- NorwayWhat if credit losses push 14 of 19 stress-tested Norwegian banks below their capital requirements?9%
- GlobalWhat if a funding-market shock drives three-month NIBOR toward 8.2%?9%
- NorwayWhat if the Norwegian krone sells off sharply in a global risk-off and oil-price slump?9%
- NorwayWhat if Norwegian banks face spread widening and rollover risk on their offshore wholesale funding?9%
- DenmarkWhat if a liquidity shock hits Danish repo markets where mortgage covered bonds dominate collateral?9%
- GlobalWhat if a global dollar-funding squeeze hits Nordic banks' large FX-swap reliance simultaneously?9%
- United States, CanadaWhat if a widening BoC-Fed rate gap drives the Canadian dollar sharply weaker?9%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if a UAE recession lifts SME and retail loan defaults beyond post-2020 baselines?9%
- GlobalWhat if markets begin questioning whether some GCC states will eventually abandon dollar pegs?9%
- GlobalWhat if a deep oil slump forces GCC sovereign funds to sell global assets to fund deficits?9%
- RussiaWhat if an oil drop and sanctions tightening push the ruble into emergency rate hike territory?9%
- RussiaWhat if a multi-year oil and sanctions squeeze depletes Russia's liquid National Wealth Fund?9%
- GlobalWhat if renewed energy price shocks force European governments back into costly household subsidies?9%
- Colombia, EcuadorWhat if a low-oil shock strains Ecuador and Colombia's fiscal positions and pressures their currencies?9%
- Algeria, LibyaWhat if low oil and gas prices push Algeria and Libya toward fiscal strain and social unrest?9%
- Colombia, Nigeria +1What if a low-oil shock triggers correlated capital outflows from Nigeria, Colombia and Angola?9%
- Nigeria, AngolaWhat if low oil widens the spread between well-reserved Gulf states and thin-buffer exporters?9%
- South Korea, TaiwanWhat if Korea's and Taiwan's chip-heavy markets fall together on an AI demand bust?9%
- JapanWhat if Japanese semiconductor-equipment makers see AI-driven orders collapse?9%
- GlobalWhat if emerging-Asia electronics suppliers face order cancellations as the AI capex cycle turns?9%
- United States, JapanWhat if yen-funded tech longs unwind violently as USD/JPY collapses?9%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa's rand carry unwinds as fiscal slippage deepens?9%
- IndonesiaWhat if rising US yields trigger an Indonesian rupiah carry unwind past 17,000?9%
- Egypt, Kenya +1What if a strong dollar tips Pakistan, Egypt and Kenya into debt-service crises?9%
- GlobalWhat if Asian central banks exhaust reserves defending currencies against the dollar?9%
- GlobalWhat if secular de-dollarization gradually raises the US term premium and twin-deficit costs?9%
- GlobalWhat if an uninsured mega-catastrophe forces a multi-hundred-billion disaster-relief package and widens the deficit?9%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if net-zero revenues outpace Saudi Vision 2030 diversification, straining the riyal peg?9%
- GermanyWhat if carbon pricing squeezes Germany's energy-intensive Mittelstand into a cost crisis?9%
- GlobalWhat if withdrawal of coal finance leaves emerging markets with energy-access gaps?9%
- GlobalWhat if the transition erodes fossil-tax revenue faster than carbon pricing replaces it?9%
- GlobalWhat if structural coal-demand decline strands the fiscal base of coal-exporting emerging economies?9%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if Peninsula war scare disrupts Samsung/SK Hynix memory output?9%
- South Korea, TaiwanWhat if Asia chip-supply scare on combined Taiwan+Korea tension?9%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam stock-fraud crackdown freezes margin-driven VN-Index?9%
- United States, China +1What if US chip-diversion probe slaps curbs on Malaysian data centers?9%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia palm-oil price collapse squeezes terms of trade?9%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia E&E export slump on global tech inventory glut?9%
- Hong KongWhat if Hong Kong dollar peg pressured to the weak side of its band?9%
- GlobalWhat if CPI upside surprise shock: a hot print resets cut expectations?9%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed surprises markets with a rate hike?8%
- GlobalWhat if US inflation collapses toward outright deflation?8%
- GermanyWhat if a confidence shock hits Deutsche Bank?8%
- South AfricaWhat if a missed Eskom payment infects South Africa's sovereign debt?8%
- European UnionWhat if the ECB over-tightens straight into a recession?8%
- GlobalWhat if Illinois pensions force a state fiscal emergency?8%
- United StatesWhat if ballooning deficits push term premium higher and raise fiscal dominance risks?8%
- United StatesWhat if acute market stress forces an unscheduled inter-meeting rate cut?8%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed hikes the funds rate toward 7% to quell persistent inflation?8%
- United StatesWhat if broad import tariffs spike inflation and keep the Fed restrictive as growth slows?8%
- GlobalWhat if the dollar's reserve status erodes and US funding costs gradually rise?8%
- United Kingdom, Canada +1What if mortgage resets across Canada, the UK, Australia, and the Nordics hit spending at once?8%
- GlobalWhat if US 30-year mortgage rates reach 8.5% as long yields and MBS spreads climb?8%
- GlobalWhat if US 10-year real yields surge above 3% and compress equity multiples?8%
- Italy, European UnionWhat if the ECB activates its Transmission Protection Instrument to cap BTP spreads?8%
- Germany, SpainWhat if Spain's Bono-Bund spread widens past 130bp on regional-financing tensions?8%
- United KingdomWhat if the Bank of England restarts emergency long-dated gilt purchases?8%
- United KingdomWhat if a UK fiscal crisis drives sterling and gilts sharply lower together?8%
- JapanWhat if rising JGB yields make Japan's 250% debt-to-GDP ratio a market flash point?8%
- JapanWhat if a global bond selloff inflicts large losses on Japan's GPIF?8%
- United KingdomWhat if UK index-linked gilts sell off sharply as real yields jump and pension demand fades?8%
- United Kingdom, European UnionWhat if a global bear-steepening lifts long-end yields across the US, UK, and euro area?8%
- United KingdomWhat if a US long-end selloff spreads into Bunds, gilts, and JGBs through global duration channels?8%
- GlobalWhat if a global sovereign-stress episode sends the dollar surging and tightens global conditions?8%
- GlobalWhat if US fiscal deficits erode dollar confidence even as yields stay elevated?8%
- United KingdomWhat if a UK budget with weak consolidation triggers a sharp gilt selloff?8%
- JapanWhat if Japanese JGB yields rise 200bp and devastate domestic financial institutions?8%
- JapanWhat if a disorderly yen slump forces faster BoJ hikes and squeezes carry trades globally?8%
- GlobalWhat if US and euro swap spreads invert further, signaling impaired sovereign-market functioning?8%
- GlobalWhat if a term-premium spike widens agency MBS spreads and pushes mortgage rates higher?8%
- GlobalWhat if heavy sovereign supply collapses the green-bond greenium?8%
- GlobalWhat if a persistent rise in term premia de-rates long-duration growth stocks?8%
- United StatesWhat if persistent fiscal dominance forces the Fed toward de-facto debt monetization?8%
- GlobalWhat if record sovereign supply meets shrinking central-bank demand and causes chronic indigestion?8%
- United KingdomWhat if the UK 10-year gilt yield tops 5.5%, the highest in decades?8%
- JapanWhat if the Japanese 10-year JGB yield tops 2% for the first time in over a decade?8%
- United StatesWhat if a public clash over Fed independence lifts the inflation-risk premium on Treasuries?8%
- GlobalWhat if key yield levels breaking triggers convexity-driven selling and accelerates the long-end selloff?8%
- GlobalWhat if surging interest costs crowd out discretionary spending in advanced-economy budgets?8%
- United KingdomWhat if persistent auction tails across US, UK, and euro sovereigns signal fragile bond demand?8%
- GlobalWhat if a rising term premium tightens financial conditions to recessionary levels?8%
- GlobalWhat if a sudden bear steepening whipsaws pension and insurer duration hedges?8%
- GlobalWhat if a US term-premium spike widens dollar-denominated sovereign spreads globally?8%
- GlobalWhat if rising populist fiscal pressures embed a higher sovereign risk premium globally?8%
- GlobalWhat if the global exit from yield suppression unleashes volatile term-premium rebuilding?8%
- GlobalWhat if a composite debt-distress gauge signals systemic sovereign stress across advanced economies?8%
- GlobalWhat if the Brazilian real depreciates more than 30% in a disorderly currency rout?8%
- MexicoWhat if tighter US immigration enforcement sharply cuts remittances flowing into Mexico?8%
- MexicoWhat if Pemex faces a debt-rollover crisis on its roughly $100bn in liabilities?8%
- South AfricaWhat if a South Africa downgrade triggers a sovereign-bank doom loop through bond holdings?8%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey reverses course to unorthodox rate cuts despite high inflation?8%
- PhilippinesWhat if Manila's office and condo oversupply tips into a price correction?8%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia's elevated household debt becomes a stress point as rates rise?8%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria's bank recapitalization drive exposes thinly-capitalized lenders to forced consolidation?8%
- ColombiaWhat if a sustained oil-price drop widens Colombia's current-account gap and weakens the peso?8%
- ChileWhat if a commodity and risk-off shock drives a sharp Chilean peso sell-off?8%
- Poland, UkraineWhat if escalation near Poland's border triggers a sharp zloty sell-off and capital outflows?8%
- HungaryWhat if a prolonged EU cohesion-funds freeze widens Hungary's external and fiscal gaps?8%
- GlobalWhat if multiple EM central banks exhaust FX reserves defending currencies in a dollar surge?8%
- MexicoWhat if investor concern over Mexico's judicial overhaul accelerates portfolio outflows?8%
- ColombiaWhat if a Colombian sovereign downgrade triggers forced index-fund selling of peso bonds?8%
- Egypt, Nigeria +1What if a global food-price spike drains FX reserves in Egypt, Pakistan and Nigeria?8%
- India, Turkey +1What if an oil supply shock widens external deficits for India, Turkey and the Philippines?8%
- ChinaWhat if China property contagion hits developers and construction lenders across Southeast Asia?8%
- MexicoWhat if sweeping US tariffs on Mexican goods tip Mexico into recession?8%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa's fiscal and balance-of-payments crisis forces it toward an IMF program?8%
- India, PakistanWhat if a renewed Pakistani reserve crisis forces a sharp rupee devaluation and import compression?8%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan misses an external bond payment and triggers a formal default event?8%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if a move to a free-floating Egyptian pound overshoots sharply and spikes inflation?8%
- BrazilWhat if a global recession and commodity collapse hit Brazil simultaneously?8%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey's debt-heavy construction sector buckles and drives developer defaults at banks?8%
- TurkeyWhat if foreign banks pull back Turkish trade-finance lines and squeeze FX liquidity?8%
- IndonesiaWhat if a nickel oversupply glut collapses prices and undercuts Indonesia's metals strategy?8%
- ArgentinaWhat if an abrupt move toward Argentine dollarization collapses the peso and disrupts bank deposits?8%
- ArgentinaWhat if a drought collapses Argentine soy and grain exports and deepens FX reserve scarcity?8%
- ChileWhat if lithium prices collapse and hit Chile's export revenue?8%
- GlobalWhat if several emerging markets fall below FX-reserve adequacy thresholds?8%
- GlobalWhat if euro-area unemployment rises 6 percentage points in a stagflationary downturn?8%
- European UnionWhat if the ECB overtightens and pushes the euro area into recession?8%
- Germany, European UnionWhat if German Bund yields spike above 3.5% on higher-for-longer ECB policy?8%
- United KingdomWhat if UK gilt yields spike past 5.5% in a disorderly long-end selloff?8%
- United KingdomWhat if accelerated BoE gilt sales overwhelm demand and steepen the curve?8%
- GlobalWhat if subordinated European bank spreads gap 450bp wider in a recession?8%
- European UnionWhat if repeated inflation surprises de-anchor ECB credibility and expectations?8%
- GlobalWhat if a volatility surge unwinds euro carry trades and deleverages European markets?8%
- GlobalWhat if inflation overshoots de-anchor euro-area expectations above 3% and raise the rate regime?8%
- ChinaWhat if high energy costs and an innovation gap erode EU competitiveness versus the US and China?8%
- Germany, ItalyWhat if the BTP-Bund spread blows out to 300bp on Italian fiscal slippage and political risk?8%
- Germany, FranceWhat if French OAT-Bund spreads widen past 90bp on deficit and political instability concerns?8%
- United KingdomWhat if repeated BoE forecasting errors erode confidence in the UK inflation-targeting framework?8%
- European UnionWhat if ECB balance-sheet runoff lifts periphery spreads as private buyers demand higher yields?8%
- European UnionWhat if the ECB faces an acute stagflation bind where any rate path worsens either inflation or recession?8%
- United Kingdom, European UnionWhat if diverging ECB and BoE policy paths spike EUR/GBP volatility and complicate corporate hedging?8%
- GlobalWhat if a 40% TOPIX drawdown slashes the value of Japanese bank cross-shareholdings?8%
- JapanWhat if disclosure of large unrealized losses triggers an SVB-style deposit run at a Japanese regional bank?8%
- JapanWhat if a yen surge and carry unwind produce a multi-day Nikkei volatility shock?8%
- Japan, United KingdomWhat if an unfunded Japanese fiscal package spikes JGB yields as BoJ support ends?8%
- JapanWhat if foreign buyers demand far higher yields to absorb Japan's government debt?8%
- JapanWhat if rising rates drive a surge in defaults at Japan's consumer-finance subsidiaries?8%
- JapanWhat if Japanese regional banks crystallize large bond losses to fund deposit outflows?8%
- JapanWhat if years of suppressed JGB volatility give way to a high-volatility rate regime?8%
- JapanWhat if a Japanese consumption recession lifts credit costs broadly across regional banks?8%
- South KoreaWhat if a weak won imports inflation while Korean exports stall, trapping the BoK?8%
- South KoreaWhat if heavy BoK FX intervention draws market focus on reserve adequacy and accelerates outflows?8%
- South KoreaWhat if Korean peninsula tensions inject a geopolitical risk premium into won assets and bank funding?8%
- IndiaWhat if offshore rupee NDF pricing dislocates from onshore spot during a market stress episode?8%
- IndiaWhat if intense Indian deposit competition compresses bank net interest margins as the CD ratio stays high?8%
- IndiaWhat if unwinding rupee carry positions spike India's onshore funding costs and forward premia?8%
- SingaporeWhat if a sharp risk-off forces MAS to defend the SGD exchange-rate band, draining reserves?8%
- Indonesia, Thailand +2What if a coordinated ASEAN downturn hits Singapore banks' large regional loan books simultaneously?8%
- SingaporeWhat if collapsing container rates hit Singapore's maritime-finance lenders and offshore-marine borrowers?8%
- SingaporeWhat if a regional tech retrenchment softens Singapore commercial property demand and SME credit quality?8%
- Hong KongWhat if speculators mount a sustained attack on the Hong Kong dollar peg?8%
- China, Hong KongWhat if Hong Kong is hit simultaneously by China's property slump and high US-driven HIBOR?8%
- IndonesiaWhat if heavy rupiah defense rapidly depletes Indonesia's foreign-exchange reserves?8%
- IndonesiaWhat if Bank Indonesia must keep real rates high to hold foreign bond investors in rupiah assets?8%
- IndonesiaWhat if falling Indonesian government-bond prices and bank capital losses feed each other?8%
- IndonesiaWhat if an unwind of rupiah carry trades spikes Indonesian funding costs and bond yields?8%
- IndonesiaWhat if the rupiah gaps past 19,000 per dollar in a sudden risk-off cascade?8%
- China, IndonesiaWhat if Chinese-backed nickel overcapacity drives Indonesian smelter writedowns and loan losses?8%
- MalaysiaWhat if the ringgit falls 30% in a regional sudden stop, reviving 1998-style stress?8%
- MalaysiaWhat if persistent ringgit defense erodes Malaysia's already thin foreign-exchange reserve cover?8%
- MalaysiaWhat if stretched Malaysian household leverage meets a weakening labor market?8%
- MalaysiaWhat if subsidy-rationalization fiscal strain lifts Malaysian sovereign risk premia?8%
- MalaysiaWhat if Malaysian SME defaults surge once pandemic-era credit-relief programs lapse?8%
- MalaysiaWhat if a simultaneous ringgit slide and Malaysian bond-yield spike erodes bank capital?8%
- MalaysiaWhat if a global semiconductor downturn hits Malaysia's large electronics-export base?8%
- South Korea, Malaysia +2What if property downturns in Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia hit simultaneously?8%
- India, Indonesia +1What if a global carry-trade reversal pulls funding out of high-yield Asian currencies at once?8%
- CanadaWhat if a severe recession forces OSFI to restrict Big Six dividends and buybacks?8%
- CanadaWhat if wholesale-funding stress and widening covered-bond spreads squeeze Canada's Big Six banks?8%
- SwitzerlandWhat if an IMF-FSAP adverse scenario drives Swiss bank CET1 capital from 17% to below 11%?8%
- SwitzerlandWhat if a franc spike strains Swiss banks' large foreign-currency balance sheets?8%
- SwedenWhat if persistent krona weakness depletes Riksbank reserves needed to backstop dollar liquidity?8%
- SwedenWhat if a risk-off rotation sells off the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone together?8%
- SwitzerlandWhat if a market shock and post-Credit-Suisse trust erosion drive asset outflows from Swiss wealth managers?8%
- SwitzerlandWhat if an acute shock triggers a disorderly franc surge beyond 9% despite SNB intervention?8%
- CanadaWhat if a sharp unwinding of CAD carry trades drives loonie and rate volatility into a slowing economy?8%
- SwedenWhat if Sweden's machinery and auto exporters face a global capex slump?8%
- NorwayWhat if a global equity bear market slashes Norway's sovereign wealth fund?8%
- SwitzerlandWhat if Nordic and Swiss banks face simultaneous capital erosion in a regional recession?8%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if AED 12-month forwards begin pricing a tail risk of dirham devaluation?8%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if a deep downturn triggers expatriate departures that shrink UAE deposits and credit?8%
- GlobalWhat if speculators attack SAR, AED, OMR and BHD forwards during a low-oil reserve drawdown?8%
- KuwaitWhat if even Kuwait's dinar comes under pressure as low oil swings the budget to deficit?8%
- GlobalWhat if resident capital flight in a low-oil Gulf drains FX reserves faster than remittances fall?8%
- IranWhat if tighter sanctions and low prices strangle Iranian oil revenue and deepen fiscal stress?8%
- TaiwanWhat if Taiwan's index, dominated by a single AI-chip giant, suffers an outsized AI selloff?8%
- JapanWhat if an unwinding yen carry trade slams EM high-yield currencies?8%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey's lira carry trade collapses as orthodox policy reverses?8%
- IndiaWhat if an oil and real-yield spike ends India's rupee carry appeal?8%
- GlobalWhat if the DXY breaks 120 and forces Plaza-era-style intervention talks?8%
- GlobalWhat if a wave of EM dollar-bond maturities hits into shut primary markets?8%
- GlobalWhat if a prolonged oil slump sparks speculation that a GCC dollar peg could break?8%
- SwitzerlandWhat if a CHF surge unwinds franc-funded carry trades into EM and high-yield assets?8%
- GlobalWhat if an FX volatility regime break forces systematic funds to cut leverage across currencies?8%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkish banks struggle to roll external dollar debt as the lira slides?8%
- GlobalWhat if US real yields jump above 2.5% and pull capital out of emerging markets?8%
- GlobalWhat if disorderly dollar strength prompts coordinated G7 FX intervention talks?8%
- GlobalWhat if a US fiscal shock durably dents confidence in the dollar's safe-haven status?8%
- GlobalWhat if a dollar surge triggers sustained outflows from EM hard- and local-currency bond funds?8%
- GlobalWhat if several large reserve holders rebalance away from the dollar within a single quarter?8%
- GlobalWhat if CBAM inclusion of fertiliser raises global food-input prices?8%
- ChinaWhat if China's subsidised solar, battery and EV overcapacity collapses into a bust?8%
- GlobalWhat if a durable oil-demand decline erodes Gulf current-account surpluses and pressures dollar pegs?8%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey political shock triggers a 20% lira air-pocket?8%
- TurkeyWhat if Lira flash-crash on a botched intervention exit?8%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt power blackouts return as fuel dollars run short?8%
- South Korea, VietnamWhat if Vietnam power-grid shortfall throttles Foxconn/Samsung output?8%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia nickel glut crashes LME price, downstream margins?8%
- ThailandWhat if Thailand household-debt overhang chokes consumption recovery?8%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippine rice-price shock spikes inflation and street anger?8%
- ThailandWhat if Thai baht spikes on safe-haven gold-and-tourism inflow squeeze?8%
- United States, MalaysiaWhat if Malaysia capital outflow on Fed-hawkish surprise hits ringgit?8%
- Germany, European UnionWhat if Germany's top court blocks an ECB bond program?7%
- European UnionWhat if Slovakia reopens the debate over leaving the eurozone?7%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed swaps its 2% goal for a nominal-GDP target?7%
- ItalyWhat if Moody's cuts Italy to junk and forces BTP selling?7%
- GlobalWhat if a major economy adopts Modern Monetary Theory outright?7%
- United StatesWhat if a Middle East war forces a multitrillion-dollar US war budget?7%
- GermanyWhat if an indebted German state needs a federal bailout?7%
- United StatesWhat if a risk-off shock drives 10-year Treasury yields down 100 basis points?7%
- GlobalWhat if real 10-year yields jump and stay above 2.5% on supply and term-premium dynamics?7%
- GlobalWhat if markets conclude the neutral interest rate is structurally higher?7%
- GlobalWhat if an apparent soft landing reverses into a delayed recession that surprises markets?7%
- GlobalWhat if the US loses its last AAA sovereign credit rating?7%
- ItalyWhat if Italy enters a self-fulfilling debt spiral as BTP yields exceed nominal growth?7%
- Italy, European UnionWhat if Italy is downgraded to sub-investment-grade, forcing index exclusion?7%
- FranceWhat if France loses its AA rating as deficits exceed 6% of GDP?7%
- GlobalWhat if a periphery euro sovereign auction fails to clear?7%
- United KingdomWhat if the UK is downgraded out of the AA category?7%
- JapanWhat if Japan is downgraded as BoJ exit raises debt-service costs?7%
- GermanyWhat if heavy issuance and a growth shock dent the Bund's safe-haven status?7%
- GlobalWhat if a weak US TIPS auction signals fading demand for inflation protection?7%
- GermanyWhat if a German Bund auction is technically uncovered as investors balk at rising supply?7%
- United StatesWhat if large reserve managers structurally cut their Treasury holdings?7%
- European UnionWhat if ECB balance-sheet runoff widens periphery spreads as sovereign supply rises?7%
- France, SpainWhat if French OAT spreads durably exceed Spain's, ending France's semi-core status?7%
- SpainWhat if Spanish regional debt strain widens the Bono spread and pressures domestic banks?7%
- GlobalWhat if uncertainty over post-NGEU joint EU issuance widens periphery and supranational spreads?7%
- JapanWhat if Japanese bank unrealized losses on bonds exceed core capital buffers?7%
- GlobalWhat if US twin deficits require a higher term premium to attract foreign financing?7%
- European UnionWhat if sticky inflation forces the ECB to stay restrictive longer and pressures indebted sovereigns?7%
- GlobalWhat if heavy inflation-linked supply outstrips real-money demand and lifts real yields?7%
- GlobalWhat if QT overshoots and reserves fall too low, spiking repo rates?7%
- GlobalWhat if periphery sovereign-spread widening transmits to euro-area corporate credit?7%
- European UnionWhat if an ECB shift on sovereign-collateral haircuts tightens bank funding and amplifies periphery selling?7%
- GlobalWhat if pensions and insurers cut long-duration allocations and remove a structural bid from bond markets?7%
- GlobalWhat if a severe risk-off episode widens intra-euro spreads to crisis-era levels?7%
- JapanWhat if large mark-to-market losses on the BoJ's JGB holdings raise questions about policy room?7%
- GlobalWhat if FX reserves diversify away from the dollar and euro, lifting term premia in both?7%
- GlobalWhat if climate-adaptation borrowing adds to deficits and reinforces the term-premium rise?7%
- GlobalWhat if falling bank bonds and sovereign prices feed back into bank capital and lending across the euro area?7%
- GlobalWhat if G7 bond term premiums reset higher as deficits stay wide?7%
- United States, JapanWhat if rising Japanese yields pull capital home and lift US long rates?7%
- United KingdomWhat if Bank of England gilt sales steepen the curve into a weak market?7%
- GlobalWhat if a euro fragmentation scare triggers deposit flight from periphery banks?7%
- JapanWhat if BoJ normalization clashes with Japan's deficit-financing needs?7%
- GlobalWhat if sovereign and corporate spreads widen together as the credit cycle turns?7%
- GlobalWhat if a renewed inflation surprise pushes advanced-economy term premiums higher?7%
- Germany, FranceWhat if the OAT-Bund spread settles structurally above 120bp as France's fiscal credibility erodes?7%
- GlobalWhat if a euro break-up tail scenario triggers extreme spreads and capital controls?7%
- JapanWhat if a sharp JGB selloff removes the last anchor of low long-term yields globally?7%
- GlobalWhat if a surge in US T-bill issuance drains reserves and lifts front-end rates?7%
- United Kingdom, European UnionWhat if higher real yields push mortgage rates up across the US, UK and euro area?7%
- GlobalWhat if sovereign bond markets shift to a structurally higher volatility regime?7%
- ItalyWhat if an EBA stress test reveals Italian banks would breach capital under a spread shock?7%
- United KingdomWhat if the UK suffers a simultaneous gilt and sterling confidence shock?7%
- Italy, SpainWhat if Spanish and Italian spreads widen together in a euro periphery risk-off?7%
- GlobalWhat if rising term premiums drive a correlated bond-equity selloff that hammers risk-parity funds?7%
- South AfricaWhat if FATF grey-listing accelerates structural capital outflows from South Africa?7%
- TurkeyWhat if the CBRT's net FX reserves swing back to deeply negative defending the lira?7%
- IndiaWhat if a large Indian housing-finance default cascades into the banking system?7%
- ChileWhat if renewed Chilean pension-withdrawal pressure forces AFP fire sales in bond markets?7%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico's consumer-fintech and BNPL credit boom turns into a delinquency spike?7%
- South AfricaWhat if serial South African SOE failures beyond Eskom overwhelm the national fiscus?7%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesian SOE infrastructure debt becomes a contingent fiscal liability as funding tightens?7%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria's post-devaluation inflation stays above 30% and erodes bank asset quality?7%
- BrazilWhat if a spike in Brazilian long-bond yields marks down pension and insurer portfolios?7%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkish disinflation stalls and CPI re-accelerates on FX pass-through?7%
- PolandWhat if a renewed inflation surprise forces Poland's central bank to reverse course and hike?7%
- South AfricaWhat if the rand plunges sharply as global volatility unwinds the carry trade?7%
- IndiaWhat if a gold-price correction triggers loan-to-value breaches at Indian gold-loan NBFCs?7%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt's heavy eurobond redemption schedule forces a liability-management or restructuring?7%
- TurkeyWhat if a political-credibility shock triggers a flash lira devaluation of 15% or more?7%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria's naira weakness and inflation feed each other in a self-reinforcing doom loop?7%
- Poland, HungaryWhat if a shock to Hungary spreads contagion across Central European currencies and spreads?7%
- IndiaWhat if India faces simultaneous oil-price and rupee shocks widening its external deficit?7%
- South AfricaWhat if severe Eskom load-shedding returns and tips South Africa deeper into recession?7%
- NigeriaWhat if persistent naira volatility undermines Nigerian corporate planning and lifts credit stress?7%
- Hungary, Turkey +1What if Turkey, Hungary and Nigeria all deliver emergency rate hikes within weeks of each other?7%
- MexicoWhat if a USMCA breakdown freezes investment and tips Mexico toward recession?7%
- BrazilWhat if Brazilian credit-card and revolving-loan delinquencies surge under high interest rates?7%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa's debt service consumes over 20% of revenue and raises debt-trap concerns?7%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa's unsecured-credit market enters a fresh boom-bust cycle?7%
- TurkeyWhat if renewed lira weakness sparks a flight from lira into FX deposits at Turkish banks?7%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkish SMEs default in growing numbers under high real rates and weak demand?7%
- IndiaWhat if a funding freeze at Indian infrastructure NBFCs stalls project finance and construction?7%
- IndiaWhat if a reversal of index-driven foreign inflows into Indian bonds spikes yields and weakens the rupee?7%
- IndonesiaWhat if a rupiah slide passes through to Indonesian inflation and forces Bank Indonesia to hike?7%
- IndonesiaWhat if foreign investors exit Indonesian government bonds abruptly and spike yields?7%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Gulf states withdraw deposit and investment support from Egypt?7%
- PakistanWhat if Pakistan's power-sector circular debt balloons and crowds out other public spending?7%
- NigeriaWhat if a deep Nigerian recession lifts corporate and retail defaults amid an ongoing bank recapitalization?7%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigerian banks suffer currency-mismatch losses from a naira devaluation?7%
- PolandWhat if a euro-area recession spills into Poland and lifts credit losses?7%
- Hungary, Colombia +1What if South Africa, Colombia and Hungary face a cluster of downgrades?7%
- Argentina, Egypt +1What if Egypt, Pakistan and Argentina enter IMF programs simultaneously?7%
- United KingdomWhat if UK CPI peaks at 17% and GDP falls 5% in a stagflationary slump?7%
- United KingdomWhat if UK bank rates hit 8% alongside a world-trade collapse in a BoE stress scenario?7%
- United KingdomWhat if the Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 8%?7%
- European UnionWhat if a terms-of-trade collapse drives the euro into a disorderly selloff toward 0.92?7%
- Germany, Italy +1What if BTP-Bund spreads gap past 250bp and test the ECB's fragmentation backstop?7%
- SwitzerlandWhat if euro-area stress drives a safe-haven EUR/CHF slide toward 0.90?7%
- United KingdomWhat if a renewed energy shock forces the BoE to choose between fighting inflation and supporting growth?7%
- JapanWhat if a US yield surge drives the yen to a disorderly ¥180 per dollar?7%
- JapanWhat if a ¥172 yen spikes import costs and squeezes margins at SMEs unable to pass through prices?7%
- JapanWhat if a global risk-off shock drives a violent safe-haven yen rally to ¥120 per dollar?7%
- JapanWhat if a yen surge to ¥117 slashes repatriated earnings of Japan's auto and machinery exporters?7%
- JapanWhat if a severe global downturn and a soaring yen tip Japan back toward outright deflation?7%
- Japan, MexicoWhat if a yen-carry unwind transmits contagion to global emerging-market assets?7%
- JapanWhat if markets fear the BoJ's own balance sheet is going loss-making?7%
- JapanWhat if Japan falls into stagflation, trapping the BoJ between tightening and weak growth?7%
- JapanWhat if Japan faces rising rates and a domestic recession at the same time?7%
- JapanWhat if a BoJ stress test reveals multiple regional banks breaching capital minimums?7%
- JapanWhat if a BoJ hike triggers a momentum-driven JGB yield overshoot well beyond fundamentals?7%
- SingaporeWhat if MAS's severe stress scenario depletes DBS, OCBC and UOB capital toward the 9.8% CET1 floor?7%
- SingaporeWhat if an unwind of SGD-funded carry positions amplifies regional FX volatility and tightens bank funding?7%
- SingaporeWhat if a Singapore property downturn erodes household wealth and feeds back into consumer-credit losses?7%
- SingaporeWhat if a safe-haven SGD overshoot hurts Singapore export competitiveness and forces MAS to re-center?7%
- Hong KongWhat if capital flight from Hong Kong drains bank deposits and sends HIBOR soaring?7%
- Hong KongWhat if surging mainland provisions and shrinking margins collapse Hong Kong bank profits?7%
- IndonesiaWhat if perceived erosion of Indonesian fiscal discipline spikes sovereign risk premia?7%
- IndonesiaWhat if high rates and a commodity shock drive up Indonesian consumer and auto-loan delinquencies?7%
- IndonesiaWhat if higher rates and weaker demand push Indonesian property developers into stress?7%
- MalaysiaWhat if Bank Negara must keep rates elevated to defend the ringgit and contain inflation?7%
- MalaysiaWhat if an unwind of ringgit carry positions amplifies Malaysian bond and currency volatility?7%
- MalaysiaWhat if stress at Malaysian government-linked companies forces a re-rating of quasi-sovereign credit?7%
- CanadaWhat if ballooning provincial deficits and a deep recession put Canada's AAA rating on watch?7%
- SwitzerlandWhat if renewed doubts over Swiss AT1 treatment shut the CoCo market again?7%
- SwitzerlandWhat if a concentration shock at post-merger UBS revives systemic concern over Swiss banks?7%
- SwitzerlandWhat if a reversal of negative-era duration leaves Swiss pension funds with large mark-to-market losses?7%
- SwedenWhat if an EBA adverse scenario hits Sweden with GDP down 8.5% and unemployment near 15%?7%
- DenmarkWhat if a severe recession hits Denmark with GDP down 6.5% and house prices falling 26%?7%
- DenmarkWhat if confidence in Danish mortgage covered bonds wobbles in a property and recession shock?7%
- DenmarkWhat if safe-haven capital floods into the Danish krone and pressures the EUR/DKK peg?7%
- CanadaWhat if a deep Canadian recession blows out heavily indebted provincial bond spreads?7%
- NorwayWhat if Norges Bank is caught between a weak krone and collapsing oil and housing at once?7%
- SwitzerlandWhat if a strong franc and euro-area recession squeeze Swiss small and mid-cap exporters into default?7%
- SwedenWhat if daily-dealing Swedish bond funds holding illiquid property paper suffer a redemption run?7%
- DenmarkWhat if a global trade slump hits Denmark's outsized container-shipping sector?7%
- GlobalWhat if a dollar flight sends CAD, SEK, NOK and the DKK peg into cascade stress?7%
- DenmarkWhat if a deep euro-area recession drags peg-anchored Denmark into rising defaults?7%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if SAMA's stress test finds three Saudi banks fall below their return-on-equity hurdle?7%
- United Arab EmiratesWhat if CBUAE's severe stress scenario pushes multiple UAE banks below minimum capital?7%
- GlobalWhat if dollar-stablecoin adoption undermines an emerging-market central bank's monetary control?7%
- United StatesWhat if an acute offshore dollar shortage forces the Fed to reopen swap lines at full size?7%
- GlobalWhat if reserve drawdowns trigger a self-reinforcing EM currency-and-reserve spiral?7%
- Hong KongWhat if capital outflows push the HKD to the weak side of its band?7%
- European UnionWhat if ECB policy repricing unwinds euro-funded carry into dollars and EM assets?7%
- ChinaWhat if renminbi-funded carry into Asian and commodity currencies reverses sharply?7%
- GlobalWhat if one-sided high-carry positioning flushes violently on a risk-off catalyst?7%
- EgyptWhat if Egypt faces an acute dollar shortage forcing another sharp devaluation?7%
- NigeriaWhat if FX liquidity collapses in Nigeria, widening the gap between official and parallel naira rates?7%
- India, PakistanWhat if Pakistan's reserves fall to a few weeks of imports and force sharp rupee devaluation?7%
- ArgentinaWhat if Argentina's dollar shortage spiral forces renewed FX controls and peso devaluation?7%
- GlobalWhat if the dollar surges on a risk-off growth scare even as the US economy weakens?7%
- GlobalWhat if foreign investors exit EM local bonds and currencies simultaneously as the dollar surges?7%
- China, JapanWhat if a dollar-and-yuan shock drags KRW, TWD, THB and INR lower together?7%
- Poland, Hungary +1What if a euro-area funding squeeze drags Czech, Polish and Hungarian currencies weaker together?7%
- GlobalWhat if an oil-price spike forces EM importers to buy dollars while petrostates hold back recycling?7%
- NigeriaWhat if sustained low oil drains petrostate reserves and pressures dollar pegs from Nigeria to the GCC?7%
- GlobalWhat if a single risk-off catalyst simultaneously blows out currency bases and unwinds carry trades?7%
- GlobalWhat if dollar-dominance complacency reverses as diversification and fiscal fears combine?7%
- BrazilWhat if crowded foreign carry into Brazil's high real rates reverses abruptly on a fiscal headline?7%
- IndiaWhat if the RBI's managed low-vol rupee regime breaks under an oil-and-dollar shock?7%
- GlobalWhat if the Mexican peso 'super-peso' carry darling reverses sharply on US recession fears?7%
- GlobalWhat if an accelerating shift toward a multipolar currency world raises global hedging costs?7%
- GlobalWhat if a dollar squeeze pushes global banks toward breaching dollar liquidity-coverage thresholds?7%
- GlobalWhat if AUD, NZD and NOK sell off together as G10 carry appetite collapses?7%
- GlobalWhat if several EM central banks burn reserves defending currencies and then capitulate to sharp devaluations?7%
- ChinaWhat if global green-finance standards divert capital from China's carbon-intensive SOEs?7%
- GlobalWhat if a risk-off episode reverses green-finance flows into emerging markets?7%
- GlobalWhat if a surge in sovereign green-bond issuance steepens curves and lifts term premia?7%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkish inflation re-accelerates past 50% on wage-price spiral?7%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if LNG-price spike blows out Egypt's energy-import bill?7%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey hikes again pre-emptively to defend the disinflation?7%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey burns reserves to hold the lira into an election?7%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if Egypt pound overshoots weaker as the float is mismanaged?7%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia capital controls floated to stem rupiah outflows?7%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam credit-bubble bust as bank bad loans surface?7%
- VietnamWhat if Vietnam current-account flips to deficit on import surge?7%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia Danantara governance doubts spook foreign investors?7%
- GlobalWhat if ASEAN risk-parity delever spills into local-bond selloff?7%
- ItalyWhat if Italy demands an opt-out from euro debt rules?6%
- China, TaiwanWhat if a Taiwan crisis freezes access to Chinese bond markets?6%
- GlobalWhat if the Fed stays restrictive as the economy contracts into a hard landing?6%
- GlobalWhat if fiscal supply pushes the 10-year term premium up 100 basis points?6%
- United StatesWhat if the MOVE index explodes as the yield curve whipsaws?6%
- United StatesWhat if the Fed adopts yield-curve control to cap long-term interest rates?6%
- United StatesWhat if a risk-off shock sparks a global dollar scramble and blows out cross-currency basis?6%
- United States, China +1What if China and Japan trim US Treasury holdings and lift yields?6%
- GlobalWhat if quantitative tightening overshoots and spikes repo rates like in 2019?6%
- United StatesWhat if heavy use of the Fed's standing repo facility signals acute reserve scarcity?6%
- GlobalWhat if a debt-ceiling standoff prices meaningful default risk into near-dated T-bills?6%
- FranceWhat if France loses its AA credit rating and OAT spreads exceed 150bp?6%
- European UnionWhat if markets overwhelm the ECB's TPI and periphery spreads keep widening?6%
- SpainWhat if Spain is downgraded on slowing fiscal consolidation and regional financing strain?6%
- France, Italy +1What if Belgium's high debt and political deadlock push its spread toward periphery levels?6%
- United StatesWhat if heavy use of the Fed's Standing Repo Facility signals acute Treasury-market strain?6%
- ItalyWhat if Italy misses its primary-balance targets and debt/GDP starts rising again?6%
- Italy, SpainWhat if a single periphery shock spreads and investors re-rate all of euro-area periphery?6%
- JapanWhat if aging-driven entitlement costs embed a permanent debt-sustainability discount in Japan and Europe?6%
- ItalyWhat if the Italian 10-year BTP yield tops 5% on a budget and rating scare?6%
- France, ItalyWhat if France's 10-year OAT yield converges toward Italian levels?6%
- France, ItalyWhat if sovereign CDS-bond basis blows out for France and Italy during fragmentation stress?6%
- GlobalWhat if a prolonged US shutdown plus debt-ceiling brinkmanship distorts the T-bill curve?6%
- GlobalWhat if the EU fiscal-rules framework breaks down as multiple states breach deficit limits?6%
- JapanWhat if Japan's super-long JGBs collapse as the BoJ steps back and insurer demand saturates?6%
- GlobalWhat if advanced economies lengthen issuance maturity and flood the long end with duration?6%
- France, ItalyWhat if Italy and France face simultaneous fiscal-political spread shocks?6%
- GlobalWhat if stagflation traps advanced economies between rising debt costs and weak growth?6%
- GlobalWhat if advanced economies face a concentrated debt maturity wall at higher rates?6%
- JapanWhat if a JGB shock impairs Japanese bank capital and triggers a lending crunch?6%
- FranceWhat if France's debt-to-GDP breaches 120% with no credible path back?6%
- JapanWhat if persistent Japanese inflation forces the market to price sustained BoJ tightening?6%
- JapanWhat if a faster BoJ exit raises yen-funding costs and tightens carry-trade conditions globally?6%
- GlobalWhat if a term-premium shock tips advanced economies into a self-reinforcing recession and fiscal spiral?6%
- IndiaWhat if Indian power and infrastructure assets relapse into bad loans as DISCOM finances deteriorate?6%
- GlobalWhat if a cluster of EM central banks overshoots into domestic credit stress defending currencies?6%
- IndiaWhat if a large Indian cooperative-bank failure sparks depositor anxiety across the sector?6%
- PhilippinesWhat if post-pandemic spending pushes Philippine fiscal deficits wide enough to risk a downgrade?6%
- MexicoWhat if a global volatility spike triggers a flash depreciation in the Mexican peso?6%
- BrazilWhat if an unchecked Brazilian debt spiral forces a domestic-debt restructuring?6%
- IndonesiaWhat if heavy Bank Indonesia FX intervention drains reserves and stoking further rupiah depreciation?6%
- NigeriaWhat if a widening gap between Nigeria's official and parallel naira rates signals renewed FX scarcity?6%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia's loosely regulated peer-to-peer lending sector blows up?6%
- BrazilWhat if a mid-tier Brazilian bank failure from credit losses prompts central bank resolution?6%
- China, MalaysiaWhat if the Malaysian ringgit slides to its weakest since the Asian financial crisis?6%
- ChileWhat if renewed Chilean constitutional uncertainty dents investment confidence and weakens the peso?6%
- GlobalWhat if a sharp VIX spike cascades through EM assets and crushes currencies across the board?6%
- MexicoWhat if a Mexican labor-market downturn lifts Infonavit and bank mortgage delinquencies?6%
- Indonesia, Philippines +1What if a collapse in global electronics demand hits ASEAN exporters and weakens their currencies?6%
- HungaryWhat if a sudden political shock triggers a flash forint sell-off and forces emergency MNB action?6%
- MexicoWhat if severe water scarcity in northern Mexico disrupts nearshoring manufacturing?6%
- IndiaWhat if a failed Indian monsoon spikes food inflation and lifts rural loan delinquencies?6%
- GlobalWhat if BCB FX intervention fails to halt the real's slide and exhausts its credibility?6%
- Brazil, ArgentinaWhat if an Argentine crisis collapses bilateral trade and hits Brazilian manufacturers?6%
- BrazilWhat if Brazil's BCB adverse stress scenario drives system bad loans toward 16%?6%
- BrazilWhat if crystallizing contingent liabilities blow a hole in Brazil's budget and lift bond yields?6%
- MexicoWhat if a peso shock and US recession spillover crush Mexican consumer spending and lift defaults?6%
- MexicoWhat if a Pemex credit event marks down Mexican banks' and pension funds' large bond holdings?6%
- MexicoWhat if a nearshoring slowdown and remote-work overhang stress Mexican commercial real estate?6%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa's bond and FX-swap markets suddenly freeze and spike bank funding costs?6%
- TurkeyWhat if combined pressures expose a system-wide Turkish bank capital shortfall?6%
- IndiaWhat if India's unsecured personal-loan boom tips into a delinquency wave?6%
- IndiaWhat if an asset-liability mismatch at Indian NBFCs becomes a liquidity crisis when wholesale markets seize?6%
- MalaysiaWhat if ringgit weakness inflates Malaysian corporates' dollar-debt servicing costs?6%
- PhilippinesWhat if Philippine bank bad loans relapse as consumers and SMEs come under pressure?6%
- PhilippinesWhat if a global downturn cuts OFW remittances and weakens Philippine consumption and the peso?6%
- United Kingdom, EgyptWhat if a regional conflict collapses Egyptian tourism and Suez revenues?6%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia's tax reform spooks investors and weakens the peso?6%
- ChileWhat if Chile's pension funds are forced to sell assets again?6%
- HungaryWhat if Hungary's twin deficits push it toward a sovereign downgrade?6%
- Hong KongWhat if Hong Kong is forced to abandon its USD peg?6%
- United KingdomWhat if an unfunded UK fiscal package triggers a simultaneous gilt and sterling rout?6%
- GlobalWhat if European AT1 spreads blow out 450bp on bank writedown fears?6%
- United KingdomWhat if a UK gilt auction tails badly and signals a buyer strike in the gilt market?6%
- GlobalWhat if a confidence shock freezes wholesale funding markets for weaker European banks?6%
- European UnionWhat if the end of ECB liquidity programs drains excess reserves and tightens money-market conditions?6%
- United KingdomWhat if a fiscal or political shock triggers a sterling flash-crash and forces BoE intervention?6%
- JapanWhat if a global risk-off shock sends the yen to ¥117 and crashes TOPIX by 51%?6%
- GlobalWhat if a global financial stress event collapses TOPIX by 51% and devastates life-insurer buffers?6%
- JapanWhat if a yen-carry unwind sparks sharp depreciations across emerging-market currencies?6%
- JapanWhat if Japan's yen suffers an EM-style confidence crisis and non-linear collapse?6%
- JapanWhat if Japan suffers its first systemic banking crisis since the 1990s?6%
- GlobalWhat if Japan's agricultural-cooperative financial system faces compounding foreign-bond losses?6%
- Japan, SwitzerlandWhat if mounting losses widen spreads on Japanese bank AT1 and subordinated debt?6%
- JapanWhat if a major Tokyo earthquake triggers a JGB issuance surge into a normalizing rate environment?6%
- JapanWhat if a global recession drags down Japanese exporters, overseas loans and equities together?6%
- JapanWhat if regional banks locked into low-yield bonds cannot reinvest at higher rates without losses?6%
- GlobalWhat if heavy defaults on government-guaranteed Japanese SME loans strain the fiscal backstop?6%
- JapanWhat if an oil spike and weak yen blow out Japan's import bill and lift bank credit costs?6%
- JapanWhat if a Japanese corporate profit recession drives the first meaningful bank credit-cost spike?6%
- GlobalWhat if simultaneous rate rises force securities losses across Japan's shinkin cooperatives?6%
- JapanWhat if Japanese bank returns stay structurally below their cost of capital through normalization?6%
- JapanWhat if yen intervention and BoJ rate hikes collide, draining domestic liquidity simultaneously?6%
- JapanWhat if Japanese banks and insurers face mark-downs as global defaults hit their fund LP stakes?6%
- JapanWhat if a Japanese mid-tier regional bank fails outright for the first time since the 1990s?6%
- JapanWhat if the yen loses its safe-haven status and no longer rallies during global risk-off?6%
- JapanWhat if a durable shift to a 2% BoJ policy rate re-rates every yen asset priced off zero?6%
- JapanWhat if removing BoJ's yield-curve control lets a long-suppressed term premium snap back violently?6%
- GlobalWhat if a major regional employer's collapse overwhelms a Japanese prefecture's dominant bank?6%
- JapanWhat if sequential shocks exhaust Japan's bank loss-absorption buffers and require public recapitalization?6%
- SingaporeWhat if Singapore's severe-tail stress scenario sees equities collapse 74% and credit spreads widen 850bp?6%
- SingaporeWhat if a global funding shock spikes Singapore's SORA rate, squeezing leveraged mortgage holders?6%
- SingaporeWhat if aggressive MAS FX operations to hold the SGD band briefly draw scrutiny on reserve adequacy?6%
- SingaporeWhat if a deep Singapore trade recession lifts unemployment and drives SME failures at local banks?6%
- Hong KongWhat if Hong Kong's aggregate balance drains to levels that leave interbank liquidity razor-thin?6%
- Hong KongWhat if markets start doubting the long-run viability of the Hong Kong dollar peg?6%
- Hong KongWhat if a sustained tourism shortfall guts Hong Kong retail and hospitality cash flows?6%
- Hong KongWhat if a Hong Kong IPO slump and equity outflows squeeze bank fee income and funding?6%
- Singapore, Hong KongWhat if depositors flee Hong Kong banks to Singapore, tightening HKD funding sharply?6%
- IndonesiaWhat if Indonesia resorts to capital-flow controls to stem relentless rupiah outflows?6%
- MalaysiaWhat if a severe ringgit crisis revives memories of Malaysia's 1998 capital controls?6%
- DenmarkWhat if an extreme euro-area crisis stresses the long-standing Danish krone peg?6%
- DenmarkWhat if tight links between Danish banks and their mortgage subsidiaries amplify a covered-bond shock?6%
- SwitzerlandWhat if a rapid reversal of negative rates inflicts duration losses on Swiss life insurers?6%
- DenmarkWhat if Denmark is forced back to negative interest rates to defend its euro peg?6%
- DenmarkWhat if a pricing shock hits Denmark's dominant pharmaceutical sector?6%
- SwitzerlandWhat if Swiss cantonal banks face rising losses in a property and recession shock?6%
- SwitzerlandWhat if a severe shock pushes UBS toward resolution, testing Switzerland's too-big-to-fail regime?6%
- GlobalWhat if a Nordic property and FX shock triggers a systemic liquidity event?6%
- NorwayWhat if a deep Norwegian mainland recession drives broad corporate and household credit losses?6%
- United StatesWhat if stigma prevents banks from drawing on Fed swap lines, leaving them dollar-short?6%
- United StatesWhat if geopolitics narrows the Fed's swap-line network and leaves some economies without a backstop?6%
- United StatesWhat if heavy use of the Fed's FIMA repo signals an acute global dollar shortage?6%
- GlobalWhat if a frontier economy exhausts reserves and suspends debt service like Sri Lanka in 2022?6%
- GlobalWhat if one peg break triggers a 1997-style Asian currency cascade?6%
- United StatesWhat if an abrupt Fed repricing triggers a 2013-style taper tantrum hitting the fragile five?6%
- ChinaWhat if a surprise yuan devaluation reprises the August 2015 deflationary shock?6%
- Turkey, ArgentinaWhat if a strong dollar and rising yields reprise the 2018 EM dollar-debt squeeze?6%
- South AfricaWhat if South Africa's twin deficits leave the rand acutely exposed when carry appetite turns?6%
- GlobalWhat if standing Fed swap-line sizes prove too small for the scale of offshore dollar obligations?6%
- Japan, SwitzerlandWhat if rapid rotation of carry funding between yen, franc and euro whipsaws FX markets?6%
- GlobalWhat if hidden leverage in FX carry trades transmits stress across borders faster than expected?6%
- GlobalWhat if Synchronized ASEAN reserve drain as central banks fight FX?6%
- GlobalWhat if another rating agency strips the US of its top sovereign credit rating?5%
- GlobalWhat if a sharp safe-haven dollar surge crushes carry trades and EM positions?5%
- United StatesWhat if foreign banks tap Fed swap lines heavily as dollar funding dries up offshore?5%
- ColombiaWhat if a sharp oil-price drop sends the Colombian peso plunging?5%
- GlobalWhat if a LatAm-wide risk-off crashes the Mexican peso and Brazilian real together?5%
- GlobalWhat if a volatility spike triggers a simultaneous rout in Turkish lira, rand and peso carry trades?5%
- DenmarkWhat if a forced fire sale of Danish mortgage covered bonds freezes the repo market?5%
- Norway, DenmarkWhat if euro-area stress pushes EUR/DKK to the edge of its ERM-II band?5%
- United StatesWhat if Congress breaches the debt-ceiling X-date and briefly defaults on Treasuries?4%
- United StatesWhat if a major Treasury auction fails to clear, spiking yields?4%
- GlobalWhat if a US 10-year Treasury auction fails to clear?3%
- GlobalWhat if a prolonged government shutdown disrupts T-bill markets and bank funding?3%