What if deaths from AAV gene-therapy vectors halt a dozen trials?
Direct chain: deaths from high-dose AAV immune reactions halt a dozen trials — short high-dose AAV platforms (Sarepta, uniQure-type) and CDMO exposure, a sector-confidence hit. Rhymes with the 2020-22 high-dose AAV trial deaths (Audentes/Astellas) that triggered holds and sharp single-name drawdowns. Idiosyncratic biotech risk-off with no macro footprint — the crypto/credit cascade is noise; keep it a gene-therapy basket short.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Multiple deaths from immune reactions to high-dose AAV gene-therapy vectors halt a dozen trials and spook investors. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.