What if AI-compute pivot re-rates Bitcoin miners on power assets?
Miners convert energized data-center capacity to high-margin AI and HPC hosting contracts, re-rating the group on durable compute revenue and decoupling them from BTC price swings.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Miners convert energized data-center capacity to high-margin AI and HPC hosting contracts, re-rating the group on durable compute revenue and decoupling them from BTC price swings. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · AI capex ▲ · Crypto confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.2% hist -5.56–+16.28% · other way +10.54% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.8% hist -0.84–+1.46% · other way -13.64% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.4% hist -12.05–+1.61% · other way -9.81% (n=11) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.48–+2.64% · other way -12.06% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -4.24–+9.57% · other way +4.29% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.55–+1.99% · other way +0.32% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.15–+1.04% · other way +1.41% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.05–+0.39% · other way -0.52% (n=12) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.09–+0.4% · other way +1.99% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.25–+0.31% · other way +0.31% (n=12) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.6–+0.95% · other way -3.32% (n=12) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.85–+0.58% · other way +0.9% (n=12) |
| 14 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.06–+0.18% · other way +2.45% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.0% · 5d -7.3% | 78% | 39 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.6% | 72% | 40 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.0% | 74% | 40 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.6% | 74% | 40 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.3% | 66% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 66% | 40 | 0.26 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 64% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +14.3% · 5d +1.6% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.3% | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.9% | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |