AI capex
Every scenario in which ai capex is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
579 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
64%▲ 3–10 years
What if AI-grid-EV copper super-cycle opens 30% deficit by 2035?
57%▼ 1–3 years
What if a transformer shortage stretches grid repairs past four years?
57%▲ 3–10 years
What if AI capex matures into a durable multi-year platform cycle?
55%▼ 1–3 years
What if Power becomes the binding constraint on AI compute?
52%▲ 1–3 years
What if Datacenter-power demand drives an Eaton/GE Vernova electrification boom?
50%▲ 1–3 years
What if Chip-cycle trough: inventory clears and SOX bottoms?
50%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI-capex multiplier lifts industrials and power equities?
50%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI capex stays a structural pillar of US investment growth?
50%▲ 1–3 years
What if 2nm ramp drives a leading-edge foundry revenue super-cycle?
50%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI capex spillover ignites a US electrical-equipment boom?
50%▲ 1–3 years
What if Transformer and switchgear shortage extends equipment backlogs?
49%▲ 3–10 years
What if Compute deflation broadens AI access and expands the market?
48%▲ 1–3 years
What if Malaysia rises as neutral AI-chip routing hub amid US curbs?
48%▲ 1–3 years
What if AVGO custom-silicon super-cycle lifts the merchant-ASIC chain?
48%▲ 1–3 years
What if Vertical-AI applications capture pricing power and re-rate?
48%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI re-industrialization lifts US capex, jobs and cyclicals?
48%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI-capex beneficiaries broaden to cooling, cabling and switchgear?
48%▲ 1–3 years
What if Defense-AI compute orders add a durable accelerator demand stream?
47%▲ 3–10 years
What if TSMC Arizona 2nm ramp dilutes Taiwan single-point-of-failure?
47%▲ 1–3 years
What if Malaysia data-center power demand spurs gas-and-grid buildout?
47%▲ 3–10 years
What if AI lifts corporate-profit share via durable margin gains?
46%▼ 6–18 months
What if a Chinese open model tops the global rankings?
46%▲ 1–3 years
What if Token-demand flywheel: cheaper inference lifts total capex?
46%▲ 1–3 years
What if Earnings broaden beyond AI, sustaining the bull market?
46%▲ 1–3 years
What if Enterprise AI ROI proof points unlock a second capex leg?
46%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI monetization inflects: copilots convert to paid seats at scale?
46%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI productivity validates 'higher-for-longer' growth, real yields up?
46%▲ 1–3 years
What if On-prem enterprise AI clusters add a new accelerator demand lane?
46%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI-driven margin expansion offsets wage and input inflation?
45%▲ 1–3 years
What if Nuclear-renaissance demand outruns uranium supply?
45%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI productivity boom validates the capex super-cycle?
45%▲ 1–3 years
What if Agentic software re-accelerates enterprise IT spending?
44%▼ 6–18 months
What if gas-turbine backlogs choke off on-site AI power?
44%▼ 6–18 months
What if a free open-weights model matches the closed flagships?
44%▲ 1–3 years
What if Vietnam joins global chip supply chain via Nvidia/partner deals?
44%▲ 3–10 years
What if Productivity dividend lifts trend growth without inflation?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if a sovereign AI arms race redirects national budgets to chips?
42%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI capex shifts from training to cheaper inference?
42%▼ 1–3 years
What if Custom-ASIC de-throning: TPU/Trainium/Maia take inference share?
42%▼ 1–3 years
What if Memory glut snap-back craters DRAM/NAND pricing?
42%▼ 1–3 years
What if Components inventory bust whips the AI supply chain?
42%▼ 1–3 years
What if Chip-cycle peak: SOX rolls over as orders normalize?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gas-turbine order boom (GE Vernova) as AI load outruns renewables?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI coding agents write most of the code shipped to production?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if ADIA and Mubadala deploy a record AI and infra capital wave?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if Malaysia semiconductor IDM/foundry localization deepens?
41%▲ 3–10 years
What if AI productivity dividend lifts US potential growth above 2.5%?
40%▼ 6–18 months
What if a grid operator freezes new data-center connections?
40%▼ 1–3 years
What if a Chinese lab matches a US flagship using only domestic chips?
39%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI datacenters hit 100GW?
38%▲ 1–3 years
What if a private fusion firm funds the first grid-connected plant?
38%▲ 1–3 years
What if the AI capital spending boom finally pays off in productivity?
38%▲ 1–3 years
What if ASEAN semis cluster (VN+MY) re-rates on AI-packaging demand?
38%▲ 3–10 years
What if Energy-efficient accelerators break the AI power-cost ceiling?
37%▲ 3–10 years
What if Global 'silicon shield' diversification halves Taiwan chip share?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI datacenter buildout adds 10 Bcf/d to US gas demand?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if Hyperscaler load makes power the binding constraint on AI?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if Advanced-packaging (CoWoS) bottleneck caps AI chip output?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if Google Cloud turns durably profitable, re-rates Alphabet sum-of-parts?
36%▼ 1–3 years
What if a power shortage capped the AI boom?
36%▼ 6–18 months
What if enterprises report almost no return on their AI spending?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI agents take over legal document review?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if generative AI replaces advertising production studios?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI productivity boom validates: margins and potential GDP step up?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI capex super-cycle lifts industrial and electrical-equipment earnings?
36%▲ 3–10 years
What if Humanoid-robotics market scales into a new industrial growth vertical?
35%▲ 3–10 years
What if Friend-shored chip fabs make Asia chip-supply resilient?
34%▲ 1–3 years
What if Thailand becomes regional AI/cloud data-center hub?
34%▲ 1–3 years
What if On-device/edge-AI NPU refresh lifts the consumer-silicon chain?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US launches a wave of new nuclear reactors?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if AGI-level model arrives?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if CHIPS-Act fabs ramp, easing supply fragility?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if US-EU-Japan tech alliance counters China scale?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Capex super-cycle: power and datacenter spend lifts industrials?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Next-gen GPU platform ramp drives a new accelerator up-cycle?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if TSMC Arizona 2nm yields hit parity, anchoring US supply?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Behind-the-meter gas and nuclear unlock AI datacenter buildout?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gulf sovereign-AI buildout becomes a third demand pillar?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Neocloud GPU build-out broadens accelerator demand base?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Sovereign-AI buildouts lift platform and infrastructure vendors?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if HVAC and data-center cooling boom lifts Carrier, Trane and Vertiv?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Data-center REIT supercycle as AI demand fills hyperscale leasing?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if data centres spike US natural gas demand?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if America's first small modular reactor reaches the grid?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if hyperscalers lock up SMR supply for AI data centres?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if enterprises abandon APIs for self-hosted open models?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI agents gut the newsroom?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Taiwan AI-server export boom lifts TAIEX despite Strait risk?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Korea HBM boom lifts SK Hynix and KOSPI to records?
32%▲ 3–10 years
What if India emerges as a friend-shored chip-packaging hub?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if ASML-TSM relief rally on export-rule clarity?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Vietnam semis back-end FDI deepens chip packaging cluster?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Johor-Singapore SEZ ignites cross-border data-center buildout?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Self-funded hyperscaler capex keeps the buildout going?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sovereign-AI demand wave backstops accelerator orders?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if HBM/DRAM memory super-cycle: prices spike +275%?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Optical-networking boom as AI clusters scale interconnect?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Liquid-cooling and power-gear super-cycle for AI racks?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if Silicon-photonics breakthrough re-rates the interconnect chain?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Cloud-capex guidance raise re-rates the whole AI chain?
32%▲ 3–10 years
What if Intel Foundry wins marquee AI customer, validating US fabs?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI-fabric networking up-cycle lifts switch and DPU suppliers?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if GPU shortage eases as supply catches demand, normalizing lead times?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI-server ODM order surge lifts the Taiwan supply chain?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI earnings beat-and-raise broadens the tech-sector rally?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if Nuclear and SMR revival creates a new power-equipment order pipeline?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if Acemoglu AI-productivity dud: mega-cap re-rating unwinds?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if Vietnam data-center FDI wave feeds AI-server back-end demand?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if Malaysia E&E exports boom on global AI-server upcycle?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if Hyperscaler reactor PPAs ignite a uranium demand scramble?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if Datacenter load forecasts get revised sharply higher again?
31%▲ 3–10 years
What if AI deflation decade: software eats cost across the economy?
31%▲ 3–10 years
What if Productivity escape velocity: AI lifts trend growth above 3%?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if Apple AI super-cycle: on-device features drive a hardware refresh?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if Software 'token tax': inference COGS crush SaaS margins?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if Soft-landing melt-up: AI leaders re-rate to new highs?
31%▲ 1–3 years
What if Co-packaged optics standardization unlocks the next scaling leg?
30%▼ 0–6 months
What if a megacap bundles a frontier model into apps for free?
30%▼ 0–6 months
What if one model-API outage takes down thousands of AI apps at once?
30%▼ 0–6 months
What if the US bars exports of frontier AI model weights?
30%▼ 6–18 months
What if UAE sovereign-fund marks hit by a global tech drawdown?
30%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI productivity supercycle: non-inflationary boom lifts trend growth?
30%▼ 1–3 years
What if GPU depreciation drag outruns AI revenue, gutting margins?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI agents collapse white-collar office employment?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if an open-weights near-AGI release collapses the proprietary moat?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI datacenter demand outstrips the power grid's supply?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI underwriting guts insurance jobs?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Deloitte automates audit and tax with AI agents?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI tutors displace teachers and teaching assistants?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Regional détente and chip diversification lift Asian tech broadly?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Peninsula calm and an HBM upcycle drive Korean tech to records?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Allied semiconductor supply diversification matures?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI data-center power crunch makes nuclear the only firm option?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Self-funded AI capex cycle: cash flows cover the buildout?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI-electrification trade lifts utilities as power demand soars?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI-capex-and-credit boom: spreads tight as spending accelerates?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if EU sovereign-compute push funds a regional AI capex wave?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Inference-COGS transparency forces software re-pricing?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI-compute pivot re-rates Bitcoin miners on power assets?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Datacenter backup-power demand lifts Cummins/Generac engine makers?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if a major tech platform is banned or nationalised?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if hyperscalers swap merchant GPUs for in-house chips at scale?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if a memory-chip glut sends DRAM prices crashing 50 percent?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if US-China chip détente eases ASML/NVDA export curbs?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Export-control thaw lifts equipment makers?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if PIF lands a landmark AI compute milestone with HUMAIN?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Productivity-led disinflation: AI lowers unit costs without job cuts?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Great rotation: capital flows from mega-caps to value laggards?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Chip-cycle upturn lifts semis and broadens tech earnings?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI-capex reacceleration: a second wave of datacenter spend?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI infrastructure upgrade cycle as cash flows beat plan?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Inference moves to custom silicon, merchant GPU TAM shrinks?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Inference-demand inflection re-accelerates accelerator orders?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Edge inference cannibalizes datacenter AI compute demand?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Inference-cost collapse rescues software gross margins?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Reasoning-model compute appetite drives an inference up-cycle?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if NAND/SSD super-cycle as AI storage demand surges?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Smartphone AI refresh revives a stagnant handset chip cycle?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if CoWoS capacity doubles, easing the AI-chip bottleneck?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI capex peaks and free cash flow inflects hyperscalers higher?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Networking-silicon share war compresses switch-chip margins?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Custom HBM and processing-in-memory re-rate memory makers?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI-capex slowdown rotates leadership to value and cyclicals?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Meta AI capex outruns ad payback, free cash flow disappoints?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Datacenter-demand disappointment de-rates the utility power complex?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI productivity J-curve disappoints, capex outruns realized gains?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Data-center power deals re-rate utilities, REITs and gas together?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if an H-1B visa clampdown hits US tech and spurs reshoring?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if a neocloud defaults on its GPU-backed lease debt?
27%▼ 1–3 years
What if Three-year GPU useful-life cut triggers write-downs?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if TSMC prices leading-edge wafers up, squeezing fabless margins?
26%▼ 6–18 months
What if lenders write down depreciating GPU collateral?
26%▼ 0–6 months
What if a frontier lab cuts output-token prices by 90%?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if China-US chip thaw lets NVDA resume advanced sales to China?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gold corrects as a tech-led equity boom crowds it out?
26%▲ 3–10 years
What if Hyperscaler SMR fleet orders structurally re-rate uranium?
26%▲ 3–10 years
What if Climate-tech VC boom funds breakthrough decarbonization?
26%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-payoff reassessment triggers 25% mega-cap de-rating?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI capex boom-to-bust: 2026 buildout becomes 2028 glut?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if Capex-light AI software re-rates over hardware on margins?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Tech-credit strength: cash-rich balance sheets keep spreads tight?
26%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI 'Magnificent Few' concentration unwinds in a factor rotation?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Power-semiconductor (SiC/GaN) boom on AI and electrification?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI-capex spend rolls over, tipping the US into a growth scare?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI-capex disappointment compresses mega-cap forward multiples?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Hyperscaler in-house chips still lean on merchant HBM and packaging?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Cloud reacceleration lifts the hyperscaler platform earnings?
26%▼ 6–18 months
What if Datacenter capex digestion cools the electrification order frenzy?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if Power-grid bottleneck delays datacenter buildout and dents capex names?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Power-constrained data-center scarcity bids up hyperscale rents?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI-capex digestion phase pauses the mega-cap productivity trade?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI-vs-Bitcoin power competition squeezes miner economics?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if Datacenter gas turbines outbid LDCs, regional basis blows out?
25%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-capex air pocket cools the industrial-metals bid?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if Hyperscalers pre-order gas turbines to firm AI datacenter load?
25%▲ 3–10 years
What if SMR fleet orders from hyperscalers scale small-modular nuclear?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fuel-cell and gas peaker boom firms behind-the-meter AI campuses?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI revenue inflection validates capex; bubble fears fade?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if This-time-different validation: AI cash flows exceed dot-com hype?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Datacenter SPV debt wall refinances at punitive rates?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Open-source efficiency gains gut training-GPU demand?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Apple AI disappointment stalls the upgrade super-cycle?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Ad-and-search disruption: AI answers erode incumbent revenue?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if Inference-chip startups carve a profitable niche from GPUs?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI-capex labor multiplier juices construction and trades employment?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if STEM-talent retention policy accelerates US AI leadership (good)?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if a post-AI memory glut busts Korea's chipmakers?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if AMD seizes more than 20% of the accelerator market?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if an HBM4 yield wall leaves SK Hynix the sole supplier?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-capex bubble bursts?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Datacenter-demand disappointment de-rates the power complex?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Productivity miracle disinflation: output per hour surges, prices ease?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Capex-to-FCF pivot: hyperscalers harvest prior AI investment?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-capex digestion air-pocket de-rates the chain?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Hyperscaler depreciation shock outruns AI revenue?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if ROI-lag panic: 'where's the AI revenue?' selloff?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if NVDA customer-concentration hit as a hyperscaler cuts GPU orders?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if GPU gross-margin compression as competition arrives?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if AMD takes double-digit AI-GPU share, breaking the monopoly?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if HBM capacity sold out through next year tightens GPU supply?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI bubble bursts: dot-com-style 60% chip de-rating?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-darling earnings miss sparks a 20% single-day gap-down?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if DeepSeek-style efficiency shock dents the capex narrative?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Cloud-capex guidance cut tanks the AI supplier complex?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI capex crowds out buybacks, pressuring tech total returns?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if GPU export-control workaround chips revive China-facing revenue?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if AWS capex overshoot pressures Amazon margins and free cash flow?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Hyperscaler real-estate land-bank race lifts data-center developers?
23%▼ 6–18 months
What if the leading US small modular reactor project is cancelled?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI agents autonomously close most real GitHub issues?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if an AI independently proves a long-open mathematical conjecture?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if a telecom replaces every call center with AI voice agents?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if an anti-automation party wins seats in a major election?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if GE Vernova turbine backlog locks in multi-year gas-power bid?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if Margin expansion supercycle: automation lifts profitability broadly?
23%▼ 6–18 months
What if Datacenter write-down wave: stranded AI assets hit the tape?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if HBM oversupply as three vendors all ramp at once?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if Model-as-a-service price war guts AI infrastructure margins?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if DDR5/conventional DRAM crunch as HBM cannibalizes capacity?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if HBM yield breakthrough collapses memory pricing power?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bitcoin miners pivot to AI compute to rescue margins?
22%▲ 3–10 years
What if a drilling breakthrough makes geothermal scalable nationwide?
22%▼ 0–6 months
What if the Magnificent Seven unwind drags down the whole index?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Abu Dhabi positions as the Gulf's AI-and-capital superhub?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if US data-center load lifts both gas burn and grid-power prices?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if Behind-the-meter AI campuses bypass the interconnection queue?
22%▼ 6–18 months
What if Concentration unwind turns narrow leadership into narrow crash?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Clean earnings: AI accounting normalizes, restoring trust?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI infrastructure REIT boom on datacenter leasing demand?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI-trade de-crowding clears the way for a sustainable advance?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Copper interconnect wall forces costly optical migration?
22%▼ 6–18 months
What if First trillion-dollar AI write-off shocks credit and equities?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI compute demand reroutes to crypto-mining and BTC rallies?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Stranded-asset risk: obsolete GPUs strand mid-depreciation?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Sovereign-AI export limits fragment the accelerator market?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Accelerator double-ordering reverses into a demand vacuum?
22%▼ 6–18 months
What if Hyperscaler capex pause triggers switchgear order cancellations?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if the AI capital-spending bubble burst?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if chipmakers turn out to be financing their own customers?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if a deployed model is caught deceiving its evaluators?
21%▼ 3–10 years
What if Congress enacts a federal tax on robots?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI demand stalls and leaves data centers overbuilt?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if US-China decouple chip supply chains, raising structural costs?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Mubadala AI compute build-out anchors UAE tech ambitions?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Capex-driven Roaring Twenties: investment boom meets disinflation?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if Breadth divergence: index highs on collapsing participation?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Capital-return rotation: tech pivots from growth to buybacks?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if Circular AI financing unwinds as vendor loans sour?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if Neocloud GPU-leasing model implodes as utilization slips?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if Datacenter power-price backlash forces an AI build moratorium?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI infrastructure default wave hits private-credit lenders?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Meta Reality Labs losses widen as the AR bet underdelivers?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Open-source models commoditize the AI software stack?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-efficiency breakthrough collapses datacenter power-demand forecasts?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Washington sharply tightens controls on advanced AI chips to China and closes third-country loopholes?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Malaysia water/power strain caps Johor data-center pipeline?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Datacenter behind-the-meter gas plants reshape regional balances?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Power-constraint stall caps the AI buildout and capex names?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Taiwan grid/water crunch throttles fab utilization?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Foundry overcapacity glut as everyone built fabs at once?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI antitrust action forces accelerator-bundling remedies?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Wafer-scale engine disrupts rack-scale GPU economics?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI data-center power-cost shock squeezes hyperscaler margins?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Datacenter overbuild strands utility capex and contracted capacity?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Data-center oversupply air-pocket de-rates digital-infra REITs?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if a flagship data-center nuclear power deal collapses?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if the top 10 S&P names sell off together as the AI trade unwinds?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if Memory-chip glut pressures SK Hynix despite a Korea peace?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Gas glut delays US LNG FIDs as offtake economics sour?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Nuclear renaissance: SMR orders surge for data centers?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Capex-led non-inflationary boom: investment surge lifts supply?
19%▲ 3–10 years
What if Grid-build disinflation: power abundance unlocks non-inflationary AI?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if Hyperscaler capex guidance cut sparks AI-supply-chain rout?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if Rate-shock de-rating: 100bp real-yield jump hits long-duration?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if Semiconductor glut: memory prices crash on overcapacity?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if Tech-credit downgrade as AI-debt issuance balloons?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if Capex-cycle credit downgrade wave hits AI infrastructure borrowers?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if 'AI is a bubble' capex freeze cascades down the stack?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Photonic/optical compute startup leapfrogs GPU economics?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-momentum unwind forces broad risk-parity deleveraging?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if Substrate/ABF shortage chokes high-end AI packaging?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI bond-issuance wave widens IG spreads as supply floods?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if Hyperscaler AI capex digestion sparks a megacap drawdown?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if Cloud-spend optimization stalls hyperscaler revenue growth?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-efficiency breakthrough deflates the data-center real-estate bid?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if the best-funded fusion startup collapses?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if an AI agent completes month-long business tasks unsupervised?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if a major bank cuts 40,000 back-office jobs to AI agents?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if the EU mandates automation levies and retraining funds?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if a new law forces 180-day notice for AI-driven layoffs?
18%▼ 0–6 months
What if a heavy-lift rocket explodes with hundreds of satellites aboard?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Frontier capability plateaus?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Vietnam grid bottleneck stalls clean-energy and DC ambitions?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Cheap abundant gas underwrites US power-price competitiveness?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Data-center demand stall punctures the uranium-and-power bull?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI software disappointment: ROI shortfall stalls SaaS spend?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if GPU resale glut: secondary-market prices collapse?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-bubble narrative cracks, software-and-platform multiples reset?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if a model learns to fine-tune its own successor?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if a top AI lab is caught training on benchmark test sets?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if regulators probe hyperscalers' off-balance-sheet compute vehicles?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if a frontier model's weights are stolen and leaked?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if a widely deployed open AI model is found to be backdoored?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI mega-caps derate 25-30% as stretched valuations unwind?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if hyperscaler AI revenue badly lags the capex deployed, compressing returns?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if China retaliatory tech curbs squeeze ASML/Applied in Asia?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI-driven power demand keeps US gas structurally tight to 2030?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gas-demand boom drives a wave of LNG and midstream M&A?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Datacenter load-flicker forces grid operators to curtail new hookups?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Grid-interconnection moratorium freezes new datacenter hookups?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Cost-of-capital relief: falling hurdle rates revive investment?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI bubble burst: $4T of mega-cap value erased in a quarter?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Neocloud debt strain: GPU-backed loans face refinancing wall?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Free-cash-flow shock: AI capex swamps hyperscaler cash flow?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Earnings-quality scare: accrual gaps widen on aggressive AI accounting?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Dot-com analog: AI capex bust echoes the 2000 telecom glut?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-capex peak: spending plateaus and supplier growth stalls?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Capital-intensity penalty: heavy AI spenders de-rate on ROIC?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Crowded-hedge-fund-long unwind hits the most-owned names?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-concentration crash: top-5 selloff drags the whole index?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-capex air-pocket: one quarter of guidance freezes orders?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Concentration-driven passive outflows hit mega-caps hardest?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if VC AI-funding freeze cascades into enterprise software demand?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Single-supplier EUV chokepoint disrupts leading-edge roadmap?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Semiconductor equipment air-pocket as fab build pauses?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI demand pull-forward leaves a 2026 air-pocket in chip orders?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Hyperscaler PPA renegotiation risk undercuts utility growth bid?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if EU AI Act enforcement cripples US big tech in Europe?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if a hyperscaler slashes its AI capex guidance by 30%?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if fatal robotaxi crashes trigger a fleet-wide grounding?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if the global AI build-out busts as utilization disappoints and infrastructure debt sours?
16%▲ 3–10 years
What if surging AI data-centre power demand collides with grid decarbonisation targets?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Datacenter-power capex pause de-rates equipment after order air-pocket?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Datacenter on-site nuclear microreactor pilots gain approval?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if Power-bottleneck stagflation: grid caps AI build and spikes power prices?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-bubble burst recession: capex collapse tips the economy?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-bubble-burst credit shock: HY spreads gap 300bp wider?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Reflexive melt-up-to-meltdown: euphoria flips to forced selling?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Crypto-AI flight: BTC sells off with the AI complex?
15%▼ 1–3 years
What if the US bans outbound investment in Chinese AI and semiconductors?
15%▼ 6–18 months
What if a memory-chip downturn slashes Samsung and SK Hynix earnings and Korean export receipts?
15%▼ 6–18 months
What if a US AI-equity correction spreads into a synchronized global risk-off?
15%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI accelerator demand rolls over, triggering a semiconductor downcycle of 30%+?
15%▼ 6–18 months
What if the Netherlands halts EUV servicing and new DUV lithography sales to China?
14%▼ 0–6 months
What if a flagship AI model is recalled after dangerous failures?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if recurring-revenue software loans default as ARR-based underwriting proves too loose?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if an AI-capex pullback strands data-center debt in private credit?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if tech-services LBOs default as enterprise budgets get cut?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if data-center loans impair as completed AI capacity runs below break-even occupancy?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if private-credit funds heavy in AI infrastructure take large markdowns?
14%▼ 6–18 months
What if two major clouds report AI services revenue well below expectations for two quarters?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if the chipmaker-to-model-lab-to-cloud financing loop unwinds as one link defaults?
14%▼ 3–10 years
What if US- and China-led technology stacks harden into incompatible blocs?
14%▼ 3–10 years
What if chronic water scarcity constrains data-center cooling in the US Southwest?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if Regulators shift grid-upgrade costs onto datacenters, slowing build?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if Tech-capex bust deflation: AI overbuild collapses spending and prices?
14%▼ 0–6 months
What if Euphoria peak: record bullish sentiment marks a market top?
13%▼ 1–3 years
What if an AI compute glut leaves new data-center real estate underutilized?
13%▼ 6–18 months
What if the US equity risk premium normalizes from near zero as AI optimism fades?
13%▼ 1–3 years
What if GPU-backed loans default as chip resale values collapse?
13%▼ 1–3 years
What if two or more hyperscalers slash AI capex guidance by a third?
13%▼ 6–18 months
What if enterprises cut generative AI budgets after weak measured ROI?
13%▼ 1–3 years
What if power-grid interconnection queues cap data-center expansion and strand AI capacity?
13%▼ 3–10 years
What if a loss of faith in near-term AI capability triggers a multi-year capex collapse?
13%▼ 3–10 years
What if AI overcapacity requires a decade to digest, mimicking the post-2000 fiber glut?
13%▼ 1–3 years
What if Grid-connection costs and delays push AI compute offshore?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if a top lab announced a near-AGI breakthrough?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if a heatwave forces data centres to shut down?
12%▼ 1–3 years
What if a global AI-capex bust collapses demand for semiconductors and chip equipment?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if grid expansion and AI data centres create an acute copper-wire shortage?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if the Magnificent 7 enter a bear market as AI multiple expansion reverses?
12%▼ 1–3 years
What if data-center REITs face refinancing stress as AI leasing demand softens?
12%▼ 1–3 years
What if chipmaker vendor financing to AI customers sours as those customers miss revenue?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if surging AI capex crushes hyperscaler free cash flow?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if Nvidia sells off 30%+ on demand and competition fears, dragging the S&P lower?
12%▼ 1–3 years
What if efficient open-weight models slash compute demand and undermine the hardware build-out?
12%▼ 1–3 years
What if disclosures reveal AI chip demand was largely funded by the chipmaker itself?
12%▼ 1–3 years
What if a model lab defaults on multi-year cloud-compute purchase commitments?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if tightened US export controls on advanced AI chips disrupt supply and re-rate hardware names?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if an AI-equity correction shuts the funding window for cash-burning AI startups?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if an AI-equity correction widens IG and high-yield credit spreads broadly?
12%▼ 1–3 years
What if enterprises pause AI spending while waiting for cheaper next-gen models?
12%▼ 1–3 years
What if a full Western embargo on frontier AI accelerators bifurcates the global compute stack?
12%▼ 1–3 years
What if export controls on chip-design software and AI models escalate?
12%▼ 1–3 years
What if China's subsidised AI-chip push floods mature-node markets with overcapacity?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Open-weight model matches frontier?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Malaysia Penang/Johor semis FDI tops $25bn in a year?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if Datacenter-power capex glut sparks an electrical-equipment derating?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Top-5 hit 30% of S&P 500 as passive chases mega-caps?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Mag-7 carries the index while equal-weight S&P stalls?
11%▼ 0–6 months
What if Nvidia missed earnings and cut its guidance?
11%▼ 0–6 months
What if an autonomous purchasing agent racks up millions in rogue orders?
11%▼ 0–6 months
What if Nvidia's next-generation chips pile up in a glut?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if synthetic-diamond chips upend the silicon industry?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if brain-computer implants cause a wave of injuries?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if grid expansion, electrification and AI data centres drive copper demand above supply capacity?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if a dot-com-scale crash cuts the Nasdaq 100 roughly 50% from its peak?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if outflows from cap-weighted index funds disproportionately dump AI mega-caps?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI earnings fail to grow into stretched multiples and valuations snap lower?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if off-balance-sheet AI data-center vehicles default in a cluster?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if hyperscalers write down billions in under-utilized AI accelerators?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if specialist GPU-cloud companies fail as rental rates fall below debt service?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if spreads on AI data-center and chip-fab bonds gap wider?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if collapsing per-token inference prices make the AI capex uneconomic?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if TSMC cuts capex guidance as advanced-node AI orders hit an air pocket?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if high-bandwidth memory capacity overshoots AI demand, collapsing HBM prices?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if soaring electricity prices in AI hubs push data-center costs above plan?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if utilities that built generation for AI load face stranded assets when demand falls short?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if a wave of richly-valued AI IPOs breaks below issue price and closes the window?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if a global AI-capex bust hammers Asian supply-chain equities from TSMC to Samsung?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if plunging inference costs make recently deployed AI infrastructure uneconomic?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if a rotation out of a handful of AI names exposes how little breadth supports the market?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if second-hand accelerators flood the market, collapsing GPU resale values?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if export controls and investment bans extend to quantum computing and advanced biotech?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if an abrupt election-driven climate policy reversal strands green-capex mid-cycle?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if AI melt-up: Nasdaq adds 20% in a quarter on capex optimism?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if a multi-day AWS and Azure outage froze global commerce?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if a celebrated AI unicorn turns out to be a fraud?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if Japanese bank lending into AI data-center real estate goes sour?
10%▼ 3–10 years
What if power limits and chip efficiency gains strand speculative data-center builds?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if IT and AI profitability reverse sharply, dragging Japan's tech sector down?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if a nickel-price crash impairs Indonesia's heavy mining and smelter loan books?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if a deep semiconductor downturn stresses banks across Korea, Singapore and Malaysia together?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if debt-funded AI buildouts sour as monetization disappoints?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if debt-funded data-center capacity sours as AI demand disappoints?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if redemptions from AI thematic funds force-sell concentrated positions into a falling market?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI-related capex mean-reverts, removing a key US GDP growth pillar?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if banks with concentrated data-center construction loans face rising non-performing exposures?
10%▼ 3–10 years
What if overbuilt AI capacity produces a decade-long digestion period of weak capex?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if leading model labs face a funding gap as investors balk at further losses?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if Broadcom's AI-chip guidance disappoints, re-rating the semiconductor cohort?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if simultaneous fab expansions create leading-edge chip overcapacity just as AI orders cool?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI chip over-ordering reverses into a double-ordering bust?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if hyperscaler in-house chips erode merchant GPU demand faster than expected?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if cascading mark-to-market losses hit chipmakers and clouds holding each other's equity?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if investigations into round-tripped AI spending trigger SEC scrutiny and collapse demand?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI projects stuck in grid queues default on construction debt in a cluster?
10%▼ 3–10 years
What if a structural power shortage caps US AI compute growth for years?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if one AI mega-cap's miss is so concentrated it triggers a market-wide drawdown?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if a sovereign AI fragmentation scramble splinters supply chains and strands capacity?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if crossover funds mark down concentrated AI bets sharply after public-market de-rating?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if a cluster of AI unicorns is forced into punishing down-rounds or fails outright?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if the most richly-valued private AI labs see implied valuations cut in half?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if venture-debt lenders to AI startups face rising defaults as equity funding dries up?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if pension funds heavily indexed to AI mega-caps suffer outsized drawdowns?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if retail investors in leveraged single-stock AI ETFs face cascading liquidations?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if 3x single-stock AI ETFs amplify a decline through daily-rebalancing feedback?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if foreign inflows that chased US AI stocks reverse and weaken the dollar?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if an AI-led equity plunge spikes the VIX and detonates short-volatility positions?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if a failure at one dominant AI-cloud provider causes a systemic operational disruption?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if a US AI correction drags European semiconductor and software names sharply lower?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if UK pension portfolios exposed to US AI mega-caps take large losses in a correction?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if the AI-capex bust the BoJ warned about hits Japanese chip-equipment exporters?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if a model-efficiency breakthrough collapses compute demand and voids the chip order book?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if regulators force hyperscalers to restate how they capitalize and depreciate AI spend?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if money rotating out of AI mega-caps fails to find equal-size destinations?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if cumulative AI capex dwarfing incremental earnings forces a ROIC reckoning?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if equipment lessors face mass GPU returns and defaults as AI renters fail?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI darlings reverse sharply after a violent short-squeeze, destabilizing volatility?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if a retrenchment in AI construction spending drags the economy into a capex-led recession?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if over-ordered AI networking optics glut the channel as data-center build-out slows?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if earnings across AI-exposed technology contract for multiple quarters in a row?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if banks with heavy data-center construction loans report rising losses as projects stall?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if the momentum factor, dominated by AI winners, crashes as leadership reverses?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if a high-profile admission that AI returns are years away breaks the market narrative?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if the handful of strategic investors backstopping the AI ecosystem pull back simultaneously?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if converging AI valuation, leverage, and interconnectedness produce a systemic market event?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if AI-equity euphoria masked rising leverage and credit and equity reprice violently together?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if evidence that AI capex has peaked triggers a sell-the-peak rotation out of beneficiaries?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if a sharp AI-equity correction tightens US financial conditions via wealth and confidence channels?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if brutal consolidation leaves only a few viable AI model labs standing?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if customers walk away from large multi-year cloud-compute commitments as AI ROI disappoints?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if investors reprice AI mega-caps as cyclical capex-heavy names, removing a safe-haven bid?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if government chip-fab subsidy clawbacks strain AI project finance during a downturn?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if record margin debt accumulated against AI gains unwinds in a correction?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI chipmakers and OEMs take large inventory write-downs as prices fall?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if a glut of AI compute drives service prices toward zero, destroying the revenue base?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if mutual visa curbs fragment the global tech-talent pool?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if IP and patent regimes decouple across the US-China divide?
9%▼ 3–10 years
What if antitrust forces the breakup of a Big Tech monopoly?
Showing the top 500 by probability of 579. Open the full library in the Scenario Lab →