What if AI-funded UBI rollout cushions automation displacement (good)?
A major economy funds a universal basic income from AI-productivity and capital taxes, cushioning automation-driven job loss; stabilized consumption supports demand and lifts risk appetite despite labor disruption.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A major economy funds a universal basic income from AI-productivity and capital taxes, cushioning automation-driven job loss; stabilized consumption supports demand and lifts risk appetite despite labor disruption. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Consumer spending ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.