What if AI melt-up: Nasdaq adds 20% in a quarter on capex optimism?
A blow-off rally in AI infrastructure names drives the Nasdaq up ~20% in three months as investors extrapolate datacenter spend. Falling VIX and surging risk appetite mark a classic late-cycle euphoria.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A blow-off rally in AI infrastructure names drives the Nasdaq up ~20% in three months as investors extrapolate datacenter spend. Falling VIX and surging risk appetite mark a classic late-cycle euphoria. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▼ · AI breakthrough ▲ · AI capex ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.5% hist -1.51–+5.65% · other way -2.1% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.81–+1.57% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.18–+1.98% · other way +3.97% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist +0.37–+2.0% · other way +0.84% (n=12) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist -3.36–+4.27% · other way -1.48% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.4% hist -19.71–+6.15% · other way -12.47% (n=10) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -9.15–+17.93% · other way +7.83% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.98–+0.92% · other way +3.9% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.38–+1.32% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -2.38–+2.37% · other way +2.56% (n=12) |
| 12 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.33–+1.32% · other way +0.61% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.36–+0.86% · other way +2.77% (n=12) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.12–+1.54% · other way -11.08% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 10 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -18.1% · 5d -9.2% | 100% | 8 | 0.67 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +17.2% · 5d +1.2% | 72% | 10 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +1.3% | 72% | 10 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +7.7% · 5d -3.2% ↺ fades | 72% | 10 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.0% | 72% | 10 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.6% | 72% | 10 | 0.33 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.0% | 76% | 10 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 72% | 10 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 72% | 10 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 68% | 10 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 65% | 8 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 64% | 10 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +3.9% · 5d +1.0% | 60% | 10 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.8% | 60% | 10 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |