What if an approved Alzheimer's drug is halted over fatal brain bleeds?
An Alzheimer's anti-amyloid suspension on fatal brain bleeds (ARIA) collapses the amyloid thesis — short Eli Lilly/Biogen/Eisai and the neuro pipeline, not BTC. Rhymes with Biogen's 2019 aducanumab failure (-29% in a day) and the lecanemab ARIA-death headlines; damage stayed inside neurology names. The generic high-beta crypto cascade is unrelated; transmission to broad risk is minimal.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Approved Alzheimer's antibody suspended after fatal brain-bleed cluster, collapsing the amyloid thesis and neurology pipelines. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.