What if Anti-immigrant policy shrinks US startup formation and dynamism?
Tighter high-skill immigration curbs founder inflows and reduces US startup formation, sapping innovation and productivity over time; the dynamism drag weighs on long-run growth and risk appetite.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Tighter high-skill immigration curbs founder inflows and reduces US startup formation, sapping innovation and productivity over time; the dynamism drag weighs on long-run growth and risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▼ · Growth surprise ▼ · Labor shortage ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.