What if Anti-immigrant policy shrinks US startup formation and dynamism?
Tighter high-skill immigration curbs founder inflows and reduces US startup formation, sapping innovation and productivity over time; the dynamism drag weighs on long-run growth and risk appetite.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Tighter high-skill immigration curbs founder inflows and reduces US startup formation, sapping innovation and productivity over time; the dynamism drag weighs on long-run growth and risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▼ · Growth surprise ▼ · Labor shortage ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.58–+0.33% · other way -0.72% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.22–+4.16% · other way -2.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -17.27–+0.54% · other way +18.24% (n=8) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.0–+1.35% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.69–+5.24% · other way +11.62% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.12–+1.22% · other way +8.71% (n=9) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.71–+0.78% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.49–+0.53% · other way +1.65% (n=12) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.48–+0.45% · other way -6.1% (n=12) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.61–+0.8% · other way -0.86% (n=12) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.14–+2.49% · other way -0.85% (n=12) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.08–+0.34% · other way +0.2% (n=12) |
| 14 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.4–+2.36% · other way -0.84% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 39 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.0% · 5d -5.8% | 86% | 19 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.0% | 76% | 17 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +0.3% | 57% | 26 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 30 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 24 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 27 | 0.09 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +4.4% · 5d +0.3% | 55% | 28 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.6% | 55% | 28 | 0.08 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +1bp | 54% | 38 | 0.07 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 28 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 28 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.3% | 52% | 28 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -4.2% | 51% | 21 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.1% | 45% | 28 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |