What if ASEAN climate shock: floods/drought hit rice and exports?
Severe monsoon flooding and drought disrupt Thai/Vietnamese rice, Indonesian palm and Malaysian factories at once, spiking food prices and denting output; climate-supply and food-inflation rise while EM risk appetite falls.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Severe monsoon flooding and drought disrupt Thai/Vietnamese rice, Indonesian palm and Malaysian factories at once, spiking food prices and denting output; climate-supply and food-inflation rise while EM risk appetite falls. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.14–+0.68% · other way -1.94% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.17–+0.46% · other way -0.85% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.27–+4.6% · other way -2.24% (n=11) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.48–+0.52% · other way +32.94% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.26–+3.18% · other way +3.85% (n=11) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.43–+0.4% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.77–+0.76% · other way -0.59% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.34–+0.44% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.31–+0.54% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.77–+5.59% · other way -4.5% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.12–+3.5% · other way +8.53% (n=11) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.44–+0.74% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.12–+0.92% · other way +1.81% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.1% | 72% | 18 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +8.1% | 63% | 19 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.8% | 66% | 21 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 18 | 0.21 | · |
| NG NG | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -4.0% | 61% | 18 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 8 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 61% | 18 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 59% | 20 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.8% | 57% | 7 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 18 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +3.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 18 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -3.4% | 56% | 18 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 18 | 0.08 | · |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.9% | 52% | 29 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |