What if Bangladesh political crisis disrupts garment export engine?
Renewed unrest and a contested transition in Bangladesh disrupt garment production and ports, hitting export receipts and the taka; supply-chain and FX stress widen the country's risk premium.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Renewed unrest and a contested transition in Bangladesh disrupt garment production and ports, hitting export receipts and the taka; supply-chain and FX stress widen the country's risk premium. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.