What if Bangladesh's foreign reserves run dry?
Dwindling reserves and a garment-export slump forcing Dhaka into IMF terms is a frontier balance-of-payments squeeze: short the taka and Bangladesh dollar bonds; the muted global cascade is correctly sized since spillover is minimal. Rhymes with Sri Lanka 2022 and Pakistan's reserve crises — IMF program plus devaluation plus import rationing. Transmission: garment exports (mostly to the EU/US) are the dollar lifeline, so DM demand weakness is the trigger. Forward: garment-order diversification away from China actually supports Bangladesh, partly offsetting the reserve drain.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Dwindling FX reserves and a garment-export slump force Dhaka into IMF terms, a taka devaluation and import rationing. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.