What if a top-selling heart drug is pulled over stroke risk?
A blockbuster CV-drug withdrawal on stroke risk is single-name idiosyncratic risk; short the issuer and its credit, not crypto beta. Vioxx 2004 is the template — Merck lost ~27% in a day and faced years of litigation, while the broad tape barely moved. The risk-off crypto/MicroStrategy cascade overstates spillover; this is a pharma-specific liability event with negligible macro transmission.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Top-selling cardiovascular blockbuster yanked after long-term trial reveals elevated stroke risk, erasing tens of billions in market cap. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.