What if a hard frost devastates Brazil's coffee crop?
A hard Minas Gerais frost destroys arabica trees — the direct trade is coffee futures to multi-year highs (tree damage = multi-year supply loss), not the wheat/corn-led grain cascade the generic climate root produces. Rhymes with the Jul-2021 Brazil frost that roughly doubled arabica. Transmission: hits roasters (JM Smucker, Nestle) margins and lifts US/EU retail coffee CPI. Forward: a frost kills future crops, not just the current one, so the curve stays inverted for seasons — fade any quick mean-reversion in the front month.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A hard frost hits Minas Gerais coffee belts, destroying arabica trees and driving futures to multi-year highs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.65–+0.65% · other way -5.55% (n=9) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.1% hist -2.3–+1.55% · other way +0.75% (n=9) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.33–+0.44% · other way -1.88% (n=9) |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.14–+0.7% · other way +0.52% (n=9) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.64–+0.45% · other way +0.21% (n=10) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.17–+0.05% · other way -4.71% (n=10) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.49–+0.71% · other way -0.09% (n=7) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.8–+0.78% · other way -7.79% (n=10) |
| 9 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.65–+1.02% · other way +0.66% (n=10) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.82–+0.87% · other way -2.3% (n=9) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.17–+0.1% · other way +1.31% (n=8) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.49–+0.14% · other way -3.74% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -4.2% | 69% | 33 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 64% | 33 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.5% · 5d +0.8% | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -4.5% | 61% | 33 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -3.2% | 61% | 33 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.2% | 56% | 33 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 33 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 53% | 32 | 0.05 | · |
| AMD AMD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 45% | 35 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 47% | 32 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.9% | 47% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Brazil arabica frost recurs but hard tree-killing frost is episodic; 6-18mo spans one winter, moderate odds. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.