Energy — Energy & Commodities Scenarios: Probabilities & Cross‑Asset Impact

Energy & Commodities · 6–18 months horizon

What if China property bust collapses copper demand into glut?

A deepening property and construction downturn slashes Chinese copper consumption; inventories swell on the SHFE and LME copper sinks below $7,500/t.

57% probablerange 38–75%

Energy & Commodities · 1–3 years horizon

What if a transformer shortage stretches grid repairs past four years?

A global large-power-transformer shortage stretching lead times past four years throttles new grid connections — bearish for AI-capex deliverability (NVDA/semis) but bullish copper demand via grid-rebuild intensity.

51% probablerange 20–81%

Energy & Commodities · 1–3 years horizon

What if Guyana Stabroek ramp pushes output past 1.3 mb/d?

Successive FPSO start-ups lift Guyana's offshore production beyond 1.

51% probablerange 38–63%

Energy & Commodities · 1–3 years horizon

What if Simandou first ore launches a multi-year iron-ore glut?

Rio Tinto's giant Simandou project ramps high-grade Guinean iron ore into a slowing China; seaborne supply swells and benchmark iron ore drops below $80/t.

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46%

Energy & Commodities · 1–3 years horizon

What if Qatar's North Field expansion lifts LNG capacity to 142mtpa?

QatarEnergy's North Field East and South trains ramp on schedule, lifting LNG capacity sharply and swelling Qatar's fiscal surplus; the move structurally eases global gas and supports Qatari credit.

MacroGuru Forecast · 46% probable by the 1–3 years horizon

46%

Energy & Commodities · 1–3 years horizon

What if Brazil pre-salt surge adds 0.6 mb/d of light crude?

New pre-salt FPSOs lift Brazilian output by roughly 0.

MacroGuru Forecast · 46% probable by the 1–3 years horizon

45%

Energy & Commodities · 6–18 months horizon

What if Europe's refineries shut down and leave it short of diesel?

A cascade of European refinery closures leaves the continent short of diesel and jet, structurally widening NWE diesel cracks and deepening import dependence on the US Gulf, Mideast and India; the trade is long European middle-distillate cracks over flat crude.

MacroGuru Forecast · 45% probable by the 6–18 months horizon

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