Energy — Energy & Commodities Scenarios: Probabilities & Cross‑Asset Impact

Energy & Commodities · 6–18 months horizon

What if China property bust collapses copper demand into glut?

A deepening property and construction downturn slashes Chinese copper consumption; inventories swell on the SHFE and LME copper sinks below $7,500/t.

🛢57% probable

Energy & Commodities · 1–3 years horizon

What if a transformer shortage stretches grid repairs past four years?

A global large-power-transformer shortage stretching lead times past four years throttles new grid connections — bearish for AI-capex deliverability (NVDA/semis) but bullish copper demand via grid-rebuild intensity.

🛢51% probable

Energy & Commodities · 1–3 years horizon

What if Guyana Stabroek ramp pushes output past 1.3 mb/d?

Successive FPSO start-ups lift Guyana's offshore production beyond 1.

🛢51% probable

Energy & Commodities · 1–3 years horizon

What if Simandou first ore launches a multi-year iron-ore glut?

Rio Tinto's giant Simandou project ramps high-grade Guinean iron ore into a slowing China; seaborne supply swells and benchmark iron ore drops below $80/t.

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🛢46%

Energy & Commodities · 0–6 months horizon

What if drone strikes cripple a fifth of Russia's refining?

Sustained drone strikes knocking out a fifth of Russian refining slash product exports, lifting global diesel and gasoline cracks while crude rises only modestly (lost runs free up Russian crude for export); long product cracks plus a VIX bid is the trade.

MacroGuru Forecast · 46% probable by the 0–6 months horizon

🛢46%

Energy & Commodities · 1–3 years horizon

What if Brazil pre-salt surge adds 0.6 mb/d of light crude?

New pre-salt FPSOs lift Brazilian output by roughly 0.

MacroGuru Forecast · 46% probable by the 1–3 years horizon

🛢46%

Energy & Commodities · 1–3 years horizon

What if Nuclear renaissance squeeze sends uranium past $120?

Hyperscaler nuclear PPAs, SMR orders and a global push to triple capacity by 2050 collide with thin supply, driving spot uranium sharply higher and re-rating miners.

MacroGuru Forecast · 46% probable by the 1–3 years horizon

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