What if drought wrecks Brazil's second corn crop?
A dry spell wrecks Brazil's safrinha (second) corn — Brazil is now the top corn exporter, so this tightens global feed-grain into year-end; long corn, with the rest of the cascade rightly muted. Rhymes with the 2021 safrinha drought/frost that gutted Brazil's crop and rallied corn ~30%. Transmission: China and Southeast Asian feed buyers shift back to costlier US origin. Forward: with the US-Brazil export baton now split, a Brazilian miss has more global price leverage than a decade ago.
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The butterfly cascade
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Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A prolonged dry spell wrecks Brazil's second-crop safrinha corn, tightening global feed-grain balances into year-end. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.