What if Breakevens collapse as growth scare hits?
A sharp demand slowdown crushes inflation breakevens and oil; real yields and the dollar wobble while recession signals flash and risk de-rates.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sharp demand slowdown crushes inflation breakevens and oil; real yields and the dollar wobble while recession signals flash and risk de-rates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.82–+4.34% · other way +3.67% (n=8) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.75–+3.12% · other way +8.68% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.2–+0.18% · other way +3.79% (n=8) |
| 5 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.7–+1.23% · other way -3.86% (n=11) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.43–+0.39% · other way -0.13% (n=11) |
| 7 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.42–+0.19% · other way +1.86% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.03–+1.17% · other way +5.05% (n=8) |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.26–+1.42% · other way -1.82% (n=11) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–+0.03% · other way -1.63% (n=12) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.62–+0.63% · other way -0.58% (n=11) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -6.87–+6.79% · other way +19.1% (n=8) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.36% · other way +0.91% (n=11) |
| 14 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.63–+0.89% · other way -1.54% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.2% | 75% | 32 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 68% | 36 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.5% | 66% | 28 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 69% | 28 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 28 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 66% | 28 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 28 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 28 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.8% | 58% | 32 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 31 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 28 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -4.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 28 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |