What if a G20 central bank holds bitcoin as a reserve?
Legitimacy bid: a G20 central bank holding bitcoin as a reserve asset bids the whole crypto stack — ETH and SOL outrun BTC on beta, with MSTR and Coinbase as levered equity proxies. The rhyme is the 2024-25 spot-ETF and corporate-treasury adoption wave, which structurally re-rated BTC higher on new institutional demand. Forward angle: sovereign reserve adoption is a step beyond ETFs in durability of the bid, but a single G20 buyer is a sentiment catalyst, not a flow that moves a multi-trillion asset far — buy the announcement and the higher-beta alts, but fade the over-extrapolation; one reserve holder isn't a reserve regime.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A G20 central bank announces it will hold bitcoin as a reserve asset. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto liquidity ▲ · Crypto confidence ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.