What if central banks set formal dollar-cap and gold targets?
A multi-CB bloc capping dollars and setting gold-accumulation targets puts a structural bid under bullion and a structural offer on the UST long end; DXY and EUR reprice, BTC catches the non-sovereign-reserve flow. This extends the post-2022 reserve-manager gold buying (record official purchases after Russia's reserves were frozen) into explicit policy. The cleaner trade is long gold on the official-demand floor; the BTC leg is higher-beta narrative, not reserve fact.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A bloc of central banks jointly announces formal multi-year caps on dollar reserves and gold-accumulation targets, driving a step-change structural bid under bullion. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.