What if Cheap-oil dividend eases South Asian importer balances?
A sustained oil-price slump narrows current-account deficits and cools inflation across South Asia's net importers, supporting their currencies and giving central banks room to ease.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A sustained oil-price slump narrows current-account deficits and cools inflation across South Asia's net importers, supporting their currencies and giving central banks room to ease. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.35–+4.93% · other way -4.91% (n=7) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.43–+11.68% · other way +11.52% (n=7) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.11–+0.47% · other way +0.33% (n=7) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.19–+1.41% · other way +0.0% (n=7) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.44–+4.44% · other way -2.46% (n=7) |
| 7 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.07–+0.7% · other way +0.1% (n=7) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.44–+1.24% · other way -0.1% (n=7) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -7.18–+9.17% · other way +0.72% (n=7) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -6.8–+1.27% · other way +7.76% (n=7) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.02–+0.2% · other way -1.03% (n=7) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -3.15–+10.26% · other way +10.9% (n=12) |
| 13 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.04–+3.22% · other way -3.2% (n=7) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -5.88–+9.15% · other way +3.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 21 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -5.2% | 71% | 20 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +25.1% · 5d +7.5% | 67% | 7 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 20 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 69% | 10 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +3bp | 68% | 21 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +0.2% | 64% | 21 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.6% | 65% | 16 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 21 | 0.17 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 18 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +1.5% | 60% | 16 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 18 | 0.09 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +9.6% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 10 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.8% · 5d -8.6% ↺ fades | 54% | 10 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 52% | 17 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |