What if a copper crash drives Chile's peso past 1050?
A copper collapse plus a pension-withdrawal vote sinking the peso past 1050 is the right mix: weak Dr. Copper drags CLP and lifts Chilean CDS, with Freeport the listed proxy. Rhymes with the 2022 Chilean peso rout (past 1050) on copper weakness and constitutional turmoil. China is the dominant copper buyer, so the shock is really a China-demand tell; the forward angle is repeated pension raids structurally shrinking the local bid that once cushioned the peso.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A copper-price collapse and pension-withdrawal vote sink the peso past 1050/USD, lifting Chilean CDS. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.72–+0.68% · other way +11.6% (n=10) |
| 2 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.81–+0.05% · other way +1.37% (n=8) |
| 3 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.63–+0.68% · other way +1.34% (n=10) |
| 4 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.93–+0.2% · other way -1.92% (n=10) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.03–+1.34% · other way +21.34% (n=10) |
| 6 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.17–+1.58% · other way +5.52% (n=10) |
| 7 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.73–+2.07% · other way +3.41% (n=10) |
| 8 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.33–+0.23% · other way +0.13% (n=10) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.84–+9.23% · other way -9.6% (n=10) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.34–+0.07% · other way +0.65% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.1% hist -4.8–+2.49% · other way +11.22% (n=4) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short; MSTR's +6.4% is BTC-bull contamination (+63% Signature) diluted only by a gold-squeeze window — a Chilean copper shock doesn't transmit to a BTC proxy.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -1.2% | 71% | 11 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -1.5% | 69% | 30 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.3% | 68% | 30 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.8% | 68% | 36 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 28 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -2.4% | 61% | 30 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +8.3% · 5d +2.1% | 62% | 32 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -3.5% | 59% | 30 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -2.6% | 58% | 30 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 56% | 30 | 0.11 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -5bp | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 43% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Requires joint copper crash plus pension-withdrawal vote; conjunctive shock to 1050 less likely in 6mo. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.