What if a copper crash drives Chile's peso past 1050?
A copper collapse plus a pension-withdrawal vote sinking the peso past 1050 is the right mix: weak Dr. Copper drags CLP and lifts Chilean CDS, with Freeport the listed proxy. Rhymes with the 2022 Chilean peso rout (past 1050) on copper weakness and constitutional turmoil. China is the dominant copper buyer, so the shock is really a China-demand tell; the forward angle is repeated pension raids structurally shrinking the local bid that once cushioned the peso.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A copper-price collapse and pension-withdrawal vote sink the peso past 1050/USD, lifting Chilean CDS. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.