What if China copper-import surge front-runs grid-spending push?
Anticipation of accelerated State Grid spending drives a jump in Chinese refined-copper imports, drawing down LME stocks and lifting copper.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Anticipation of accelerated State Grid spending drives a jump in Chinese refined-copper imports, drawing down LME stocks and lifting copper. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · China growth ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -6.09–+6.68% · other way +2.06% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.07–+1.72% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.42–+1.18% · other way -12.84% (n=11) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -7.91–+8.79% · other way -6.9% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -12.61–+15.54% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.13–+0.3% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.86–+2.4% · other way -3.24% (n=12) |
| 9 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.25–+0.8% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -7.8–+3.57% · other way -2.61% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.27–+2.79% · other way -1.87% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.78–+1.08% · other way -2.88% (n=12) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.46–+0.84% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 14 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.53–+5.12% · other way -1.22% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 9 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -1.2% | 100% | 4 | 0.70 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.2% | 87% | 7 | 0.65 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -1.4% | 100% | 4 | 0.64 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.4% | 87% | 7 | 0.51 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -3.0% | 88% | 8 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +16.4% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 7 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -7.5% · 5d -2.9% | 60% | 7 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 7 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +6bp | 58% | 9 | 0.14 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 9 | 0.13 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +9.0% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 3 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -13.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 3 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -3.2% | 56% | 4 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 53% | 7 | 0.05 | · |