China — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning China and its globally‑connected markets.
798 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
58%6–18 months
What if China property bust collapses copper demand into glut?
51%3–10 years
What if China's provincial pension funds run out of money?
51%1–3 years
What if Simandou first ore launches a multi-year iron-ore glut?
48%3–10 years
What if Great Lakes minerals pact diversifies battery supply?
48%1–3 years
What if Vietnam becomes the #1 China+1 FDI winner (>8% of GDP)?
48%1–3 years
What if China oil demand peaks as EVs and LNG trucks scale?
47%3–10 years
What if plunging births force a wave of Chinese school closures?
47%1–3 years
What if Indonesia nickel/EV downstreaming windfall lifts export value?
46%6–18 months
What if a Chinese open model tops the global rankings?
46%3–10 years
What if Middle Corridor scales as a Russia-bypass artery?
45%1–3 years
What if US-Congo minerals deal anchors EV supply chain?
45%1–3 years
What if Vietnam emerges as top non-China electronics export hub?
45%1–3 years
What if EV truck adoption erodes diesel demand structurally?
45%6–18 months
What if China steel-demand slump drags iron ore below $90/t?
45%1–3 years
What if Solar-plus-storage cost collapse makes clean power the default build?
45%6–18 months
What if PBOC unleashes a stimulus bazooka to defibrillate demand?
44%1–3 years
What if Apple shifts a quarter of iPhone output to India?
44%1–3 years
What if Indonesia EV-battery cluster anchors Korean/Chinese FDI?
43%3–10 years
What if India emerges as a third pole between the US and China?
43%0–6 months
What if China extends its phosphate export halt?
42%3–10 years
What if Japan, Korea or China hits a demographic tipping point?
42%3–10 years
What if Vietnam 'China+1' FDI surge powers VND and equities?
42%1–3 years
What if MSCI India weight overtakes China in EM benchmark?
42%0–6 months
What if Copper smelter TC/RCs turn negative in concentrate famine?
42%1–3 years
What if Lithium oversupply trough deepens, carbonate down 80% from peak?
42%0–6 months
What if PBOC cuts the RRR to flood the banking system with liquidity?
42%3–10 years
What if China grows old before rich, trend GDP stalls toward 3%?
41%3–10 years
What if Arctic militarization race lifts Nordic defense?
41%6–18 months
What if Dong tracks weaker CNY as PBoC fixes drift higher?
41%6–18 months
What if PBOC backstops the property sector with targeted relending tools?
40%6–18 months
What if the US barred outbound investment in Chinese tech?
40%3–10 years
What if the world splits into rival US and China tech blocs?
40%1–3 years
What if Germany's export model finally breaks?
40%1–3 years
What if a Chinese lab matches a US flagship using only domestic chips?
40%1–3 years
What if Beijing subsidizes AI-chip exports to the Global South?
40%6–18 months
What if Asian LNG demand slump leaves Qatari cargoes chasing buyers?
40%1–3 years
What if China strategic stockpiling soaks up surplus barrels?
40%1–3 years
What if Iron-ore majors flood market to defend market share?
40%1–3 years
What if Bulk-miner equities slump as iron ore enters secular decline?
40%0–6 months
What if PBOC trims policy rates (LPR/MLF) to revive credit demand?
40%6–18 months
What if PBOC stabilization fund underpins onshore equities and confidence?
39%6–18 months
What if China exports deflation as factory-gate prices collapse?
39%6–18 months
What if China floods the world with subsidized steel and solar?
39%0–6 months
What if China reinstates its antimony export ban?
39%3–10 years
What if China+1 FDI wave lifts India FDI past $100bn a year?
39%0–6 months
What if US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods?
39%6–18 months
What if China steel-stimulus surprise sparks iron-ore squeeze?
39%0–6 months
What if China copper-import surge front-runs grid-spending push?
39%3–10 years
What if China's missing buyers leave 60m+ surplus homes unsold?
38%1–3 years
What if China approves fifty new reactors in a single year?
38%1–3 years
What if Iron ore collapses to $50/t as China steel output peaks?
38%6–18 months
What if PBOC and fiscal authorities co-launch a consumption-stimulus combo?
38%3–10 years
What if China races to automate before its workforce shrinks too far?
37%1–3 years
What if New Asian refining mega-projects deepen the product glut?
37%6–18 months
What if RBA pivots to cuts as China-demand drag cools Australian prices?
37%6–18 months
What if PBOC bazooka reflates global miners and EM cyclicals?
37%1–3 years
What if Indo-Pacific deterrence buildout lifts allied Asian defense budgets?
37%3–10 years
What if China dependency ratio spike drags commodity super-cycle to a close?
37%3–10 years
What if India becomes the world's marginal growth engine as China fades?
36%6–18 months
What if China's central bank unleashes a stimulus bazooka?
36%6–18 months
What if US and EU tariffs triple solar panel costs?
36%6–18 months
What if Angola oil windfall pays down China oil-backed loans?
36%6–18 months
What if PBOC interest-on-reserves cut pushes banks to lend, not hoard?
36%6–18 months
What if PBOC weaker-fix tolerance unleashes pent-up domestic stimulus?
35%0–6 months
What if rules close the offshore cloud loophole for controlled chips?
35%6–18 months
What if US-China truce extended a second year to 2027?
35%6–18 months
What if Surplus crude floods Asian storage, capping Dubai?
34%3–10 years
What if China and Russia formalise an anti-Western alliance?
34%6–18 months
What if China unleashes large fiscal-monetary stimulus?
34%1–3 years
What if Great-power climate-tech cooperation resumes?
34%1–3 years
What if Global de-escalation drives a synchronized risk-on year?
34%1–3 years
What if MP Materials magnet plant breaks China's NdFeB grip?
34%3–10 years
What if China's eldercare build-out becomes a domestic-demand growth pillar?
33%1–3 years
What if China floods the world with cheap humanoid robots?
33%1–3 years
What if Chinese households permanently hoard their savings?
33%0–6 months
What if China reimposes its graphite export curbs?
33%0–6 months
What if the Wa State keeps the Man Maw tin mine shut?
33%1–3 years
What if US-EU-Japan tech alliance counters China scale?
33%3–10 years
What if India PLI scheme turns the country into a generics-export hub?
33%1–3 years
What if Thailand EV-supply-chain pivot draws Chinese auto FDI?
33%1–3 years
What if ASEAN-5 supply-chain bloc captures China+1 manufacturing wave?
33%1–3 years
What if Lynas Texas heavy-rare-earth refinery cracks the Dy/Tb chokehold?
33%1–3 years
What if US-China chip détente: targeted export-control rollback?
33%1–3 years
What if Gulf sovereign-AI buildout becomes a third demand pillar?
33%1–3 years
What if Shipbuilding push funds a US Navy fleet-expansion super-cycle?
32%0–6 months
What if drought forces Yunnan to cut aluminium output again?
32%0–6 months
What if China secretly stockpiles copper and cobalt?
32%1–3 years
What if US stockpiles and price floors de-risk rare earths?
32%6–18 months
What if China-allowed Nvidia chip sales resume under deal?
32%0–6 months
What if Soybeans rally as China resumes US buying?
32%6–18 months
What if CNH firms to 6.9 as US-China tension fades?
32%6–18 months
What if ASML-TSM relief rally on export-rule clarity?
32%1–3 years
What if Brazil soybean export boom captures lost US China share?
32%1–3 years
What if China stimulus reflation lifts ASEAN commodity exporters?
32%6–18 months
What if Asian teapot run cuts deepen the crude surplus?
32%6–18 months
What if China lithium curtailment rebound snaps spodumene off the floor?
32%1–3 years
What if China grain-demand softening loosens the global feed market?
32%3–10 years
What if China module flood drives global solar toward $0.05/W?
32%1–3 years
What if SMIC/Huawei domestic-stack acceleration erodes US chip share?
32%1–3 years
What if China biotech licensing wave feeds Western pharma pipelines cheaply?
32%3–10 years
What if India's manufacturing absorbs its youth bulge into formal jobs?
32%3–10 years
What if Vietnam's golden demographic window powers a manufacturing decade?
32%3–10 years
What if EM ex-China dividend basket outperforms aging DM for a decade?
31%6–18 months
What if a China slowdown craters iron ore, copper and coal?
31%0–6 months
What if China bans phosphate fertilizer exports outright?
31%6–18 months
What if Trump-Xi détente reopens US-China mil-to-mil hotline?
31%3–10 years
What if Magnet recycling ends rare-earth dependence?
31%1–3 years
What if China stimulus revives SSA commodity-export demand?
31%6–18 months
What if Vietnam textile/footwear orders shift in from China at scale?
31%1–3 years
What if Thailand tourism super-recovery hits 36m arrivals?
31%1–3 years
What if US tightens rules-of-origin, squeezing ASEAN transshipment?
31%6–18 months
What if India demand surge becomes the new marginal-barrel engine?
31%6–18 months
What if US price-floor magnet policy reshores the rare-earth chain?
31%3–10 years
What if Allied rare-earth alliance pools refining outside China?
30%0–6 months
What if China's African swine fever wave deepens?
30%6–18 months
What if Brazil pivots its soy exports entirely to China?
30%1–3 years
What if MP-Lynas crack Western heavy-REE supply?
30%1–3 years
What if Brazil iron-ore windfall lifts the real on China restock?
30%1–3 years
What if Chinese smelters idle on negative margins, refined copper squeeze?
30%3–10 years
What if Rare-earth-free motor designs cut neodymium dependence?
30%6–18 months
What if China graphite export curb starves Western anode makers?
30%1–3 years
What if Synthetic-graphite anode ramp breaks China's anode grip?
30%0–6 months
What if China phosphate export curb tightens world DAP/MAP supply?
30%6–18 months
What if China stabilization bazooka revives property and lifts copper and AUD?
29%6–18 months
What if China's EV price war triggers a wave of bankruptcies?
29%6–18 months
What if a second wave of Chinese developer defaults hits Vanke and Longfor?
29%6–18 months
What if Trump freezes Taiwan arms sale as a Xi bargaining chip?
29%1–3 years
What if Xi signals 'patience' on reunification, dropping timeline talk?
29%6–18 months
What if US-China grand bargain on chips and minerals?
29%1–3 years
What if Phase-two US-China deal stabilizes trade?
29%1–3 years
What if Indo-Pacific trade pact deepens regional integration?
29%6–18 months
What if China-EU EV-tariff truce reopens auto trade?
29%3–10 years
What if Peru Chancay mega-port turns it a Pacific trade hub?
29%1–3 years
What if Qatar locks decades of Asian LNG offtake at premium terms?
29%1–3 years
What if Critical-minerals scramble re-rates SSA mining sovereigns?
29%1–3 years
What if India absorbs the largest share of EM dedicated inflows?
29%1–3 years
What if Garment-export rebound widens Bangladesh's trade surplus?
29%1–3 years
What if African spodumene wave from Zimbabwe and Mali floods the market?
29%1–3 years
What if China-pharma PD-1/ADC innovation reshapes oncology competition?
29%3–10 years
What if China's demographic drag turns it into a structural deflation exporter?
29%3–10 years
What if Ethiopia and Kenya capture a manufacturing-led dividend?
29%3–10 years
What if China property-fiscal doom loop crushes iron ore, copper and AUD?
28%6–18 months
What if the US and China strike a sweeping trade détente?
28%6–18 months
What if the US slapped a blanket 60% tariff on Chinese imports?
28%0–6 months
What if a supply glut collapses lithium prices?
28%6–18 months
What if allies ban quantum-computing technology exports to China?
28%1–3 years
What if China falls into a Japan-style balance-sheet recession?
28%6–18 months
What if the US imposes a blanket 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and Beijing retaliates in kind?
28%3–10 years
What if Cross-strait flights and tourism fully restored under KMT thaw?
28%1–3 years
What if US-China chip détente eases ASML/NVDA export curbs?
28%1–3 years
What if China reaches 7nm-at-scale, blunting controls?
28%1–3 years
What if Petro-yuan oil invoicing expands in the Gulf?
28%1–3 years
What if Quad critical-minerals pact counters China?
28%6–18 months
What if Managed US-China decoupling avoids a hard break?
28%1–3 years
What if CNH internationalization advances under truce?
28%6–18 months
What if Export-control thaw lifts equipment makers?
28%1–3 years
What if Cross-border audit deal keeps Chinese listings in US?
28%6–18 months
What if China stimulus reflates commodity-EM exporters and their currencies?
28%1–3 years
What if China lithium import-quality crackdown squeezes spodumene buyers?
28%6–18 months
What if China NdFeB magnet export ban halts EV-motor production lines?
28%3–10 years
What if Magnet recycling scales recovered rare earths from e-waste?
28%1–3 years
What if Mountain Pass expansion lifts US light-rare-earth output?
28%3–10 years
What if China reactor build-out tightens the global uranium balance?
28%6–18 months
What if Graphite anode supply curb forces battery-grade rationing?
28%1–3 years
What if GPU smuggling crackdown disrupts grey-market China supply?
28%1–3 years
What if China industrial overcapacity floods global machinery and EV markets?
28%1–3 years
What if Chinese EV brands flood Europe and erode legacy-auto margins?
28%3–10 years
What if Shrinking global labor force flips disinflation into wage inflation?
27%6–18 months
What if cash-strapped Chinese provinces start delaying civil-servant pay?
27%0–6 months
What if China curbs rare-earth exports to EU carmakers?
27%0–6 months
What if the PBOC slashes reserve requirements in an emergency easing?
27%1–3 years
What if China's digital-yuan rollout stalls?
27%1–3 years
What if Beijing assumes trillions in local-government debt?
27%0–6 months
What if China fully halts rare-earth magnet exports?
27%6–18 months
What if copper smelting fees turn negative?
27%0–6 months
What if China embargoes tungsten and bismuth exports?
27%6–18 months
What if a Vanke default cascades through China's property sector?
27%1–3 years
What if US-China codify Taiwan 'no surprises' military protocol?
27%1–3 years
What if China-India border disengagement reopens trade and flights?
27%6–18 months
What if Copper squeezed by China-West minerals split?
27%0–6 months
What if Secondary sanctions hit China-Russia oil trade?
27%1–3 years
What if China property stabilization revives EM risk?
27%6–18 months
What if Angola China oil-loan margin call drains liquidity?
27%1–3 years
What if China demand slump deepens SSA commodity-revenue squeeze?
27%1–3 years
What if China debt-relief deal eases SSA bilateral burdens?
27%1–3 years
What if South African iron-ore and coal windfall on China restocking?
27%6–18 months
What if China insists MDB claims share losses, freezing a restructuring?
27%1–3 years
What if PBOC launches outright Treasury-bond trading as a new QE-style tool?
27%1–3 years
What if Allied 'chip alliance' export bloc fragments global supply?
27%3–10 years
What if China's shrinking workforce forces a structurally weaker yuan?
27%3–10 years
What if China pension shortfall forces retirement age up amid unrest risk?
27%6–18 months
What if Beijing property-rescue package clears unsold-inventory overhang?
26%3–10 years
What if Saudi Arabia starts pricing oil in yuan?
26%1–3 years
What if EV adoption tips into permanent gasoline demand destruction?
26%0–6 months
What if the US hikes Vietnam's transshipment tariff to 60%?
26%1–3 years
What if cascading US-China-EU tariff blocs cut global trade volumes by 20%?
26%1–3 years
What if China-US chip thaw lets NVDA resume advanced sales to China?
26%1–3 years
What if China stimulus + regional calm spark an Asian copper bid?
26%1–3 years
What if China reflation and Asia détente spark a regional cyclical rally?
26%6–18 months
What if US-China tariff wall escalates to 60%+ average?
26%6–18 months
What if Trade-war fragmentation tips global growth lower?
26%1–3 years
What if China softens stance: accepts haircuts, not just maturity extensions?
26%1–3 years
What if Panda and dim-sum bond issuance opens a renminbi funding channel?
26%6–18 months
What if Metals deflation as China overcapacity floods world markets?
26%1–3 years
What if Greenland and Brazil monazite deposits open new REE supply?
26%6–18 months
What if Strategic grain-reserve releases cap a global price spike?
26%1–3 years
What if China equity re-rating as stimulus revives risk appetite?
26%3–10 years
What if Aging Asia exports disinflation, pinning regional real yields low?
26%3–10 years
What if China's labor exit removes the global disinflation anchor?
26%1–3 years
What if LGFV refinancing stress freezes China local-government construction?
25%1–3 years
What if China's tier-three ghost cities see prices halve?
25%3–10 years
What if US-China stable coexistence framework caps Asia tail-risk?
25%0–6 months
What if China weaponizes rare-earth export licensing?
25%0–6 months
What if US revokes China's permanent normal trade status?
25%0–6 months
What if Bilateral rollover failure tips Pakistan into a BoP crisis?
25%3–10 years
What if Bangladesh special-economic-zone FDI broadens its export base?
25%0–6 months
What if China steel-export surge triggers global trade backlash?
25%0–6 months
What if Copper demand surprise to the upside on China restocking?
25%1–3 years
What if Western OEM upstream investment de-risks the battery chain?
25%6–18 months
What if PBOC policy paralysis lets a debt-deflation spiral deepen?
25%6–18 months
What if China's marriage-rate collapse signals an even deeper birth cliff?
25%3–10 years
What if Robotics commoditization compresses automation-hardware margins?
24%6–18 months
What if chipmaking export controls widen to mature-node tools?
24%6–18 months
What if China's property bust crushes steel demand and floods global markets?
24%0–6 months
What if China's stimulus bazooka disappoints and reverses reflation trades?
24%6–18 months
What if Trump-Xi 'grand bargain' trades tariffs for Taiwan restraint?
24%1–3 years
What if ASEAN-China sign a binding South China Sea Code of Conduct?
24%1–3 years
What if China stimulus blitz lifts Asia cyclicals as geopolitics cool?
24%0–6 months
What if CNH slides past 7.6 on tariff escalation?
24%1–3 years
What if BRICS+ expansion and BRICS Pay scale settlement?
24%6–18 months
What if China growth disappoints, drags EM and metals?
24%6–18 months
What if Mexico tariff threat pressures peso and supply chains?
24%1–3 years
What if China slowdown crushes Brazil iron-ore export revenue?
24%1–3 years
What if China policy-bank debt-for-nature swap unlocks frontier relief?
24%6–18 months
What if Aluminium glut spills over to cap copper sentiment?
24%1–3 years
What if Yuan-gold linkage deepens as Shanghai gold pricing power grows?
24%6–18 months
What if China heavy-REE export licensing chokes Dy and Tb supply?
24%6–18 months
What if China gallium and germanium block hits chip and optics supply?
24%1–3 years
What if US antimony mine restart breaks the import dependence?
24%6–18 months
What if Western gigafactory delays slow non-China battery localization?
24%6–18 months
What if EU Critical Raw Materials Act forces supplier diversification?
24%3–10 years
What if Saudi and Gulf critical-minerals push diversifies refining?
24%1–3 years
What if Western refining build-out finally breaks the midstream chokepoint?
24%6–18 months
What if China urea export ban removes the world's swing supplier?
24%6–18 months
What if US chip export-control escalation shuts a ~$50B China AI market?
24%6–18 months
What if China rare-earth/gallium counter-embargo hits chip inputs?
24%6–18 months
What if GPU export-control workaround chips revive China-facing revenue?
24%6–18 months
What if Rare-earth magnet chokepoint halts F-35 and missile production lines?
24%1–3 years
What if China EV price war drags global automaker profitability lower?
24%6–18 months
What if China developer-default cascade reignites and saps commodity demand?
24%1–3 years
What if China consumption pivot offsets property drag and supports growth?
24%6–18 months
What if Copper and iron-ore relief rally on China stimulus and restocking?
24%1–3 years
What if China stimulus-led copper squeeze re-rates global mining equities?
24%1–3 years
What if China property-stress disinflation eases DM goods inflation?
23%6–18 months
What if Washington bars allied HBM sales to Chinese-linked AI clusters?
23%6–18 months
What if the yuan breaks 7.5 per dollar and triggers a capital-outflow spiral?
23%0–6 months
What if US approves $5B Taiwan arms package; Beijing sanctions primes?
23%1–3 years
What if US-China resume working-level military talks, cutting accident risk?
23%3–10 years
What if Taiwan-China economic interdependence deepens, lowering war odds?
23%1–3 years
What if China export-flood sparks Western tariff wall?
23%1–3 years
What if Philippines nickel-ore export ban pivots to value-added boom?
23%6–18 months
What if Copper relief rally on Chinese property-rescue package?
23%6–18 months
What if China tungsten export controls squeeze cutting-tool and munitions?
23%1–3 years
What if Copper smelting glut collapses treatment charges to zero?
23%3–10 years
What if Thorium MSR demonstration reshapes the nuclear fuel outlook?
23%6–18 months
What if African Swine Fever resurgence guts Chinese feed-grain demand?
23%1–3 years
What if China builds a generation lead in cheap power and storage?
23%3–10 years
What if China's e-CNY scales cross-border, chipping at dollar invoicing?
22%0–6 months
What if the PBOC lets the yuan break past 7.60?
22%6–18 months
What if a Chinese construction collapse sends iron ore below $70 per tonne?
22%1–3 years
What if Beijing-Taipei resume semi-official SEF-ARATS talks?
22%1–3 years
What if China-Japan détente restores the maritime crisis hotline?
22%1–3 years
What if Manila-Beijing 'gentlemen's agreement' calms the SCS for a year?
22%1–3 years
What if US-China hotline use defuses an Asian near-miss crisis?
22%1–3 years
What if Taiwan-China military hotline established, cutting clash risk?
22%3–10 years
What if Sustained Asia-Pacific peace rerates the regional equity risk premium?
22%3–10 years
What if China-Taiwan peace treaty framework removes the war-risk tail?
22%1–3 years
What if Greenland rare-earth mine breaks China's grip?
22%3–10 years
What if CNH convertibility leap boosts yuan reserve role?
22%0–6 months
What if China rare-earth snapback hits defense supply?
22%6–18 months
What if China demand shock collapses copper and the Chilean peso?
22%1–3 years
What if Indonesia coal price crash hits export and fiscal revenue?
22%1–3 years
What if Hungary's Chinese battery cluster scales into exports?
22%1–3 years
What if Uzbek green-energy buildout draws Gulf and Chinese capital?
22%0–6 months
What if Iran export crackdown pulls 1 mb/d of barrels off the water?
22%1–3 years
What if Chinese refined-product export quota surge gluts Asian cracks?
22%6–18 months
What if Industrial-metals glut as post-stimulus China demand fades?
22%1–3 years
What if Indonesia nickel ore export ban tightens global class-1 supply?
22%1–3 years
What if Critical-mineral price floors stabilize the Western supply chain?
22%1–3 years
What if China property-led metals slump drags the transition chain?
22%6–18 months
What if PBOC engineers a managed yuan devaluation to export disinflation?
22%1–3 years
What if PBOC tightens prematurely and aborts a nascent recovery?
22%6–18 months
What if PBOC widens the yuan trading band toward a freer float?
22%1–3 years
What if Equipment-maker China revenue cliff as controls bite?
22%6–18 months
What if China dumps mature-node chips, crushing legacy-fab margins?
22%6–18 months
What if API tariffs expose US generic-drug shortage fragility?
22%1–3 years
What if Grand-bargain US-China detente caps the defense-spending trajectory?
22%3–10 years
What if China local-government pension transfers deepen the LGFV debt strain?
22%1–3 years
What if China land-revenue collapse forces austerity and growth downgrade?
22%3–10 years
What if China demographic-and-property drag entrenches structural low growth?
21%1–3 years
What if Saudi Arabia starts pricing its oil off the dollar?
21%6–18 months
What if a nationwide mortgage boycott resurges over unfinished homes in China?
21%6–18 months
What if a US-China tariff exchange escalates past 100% in successive rounds?
21%1–3 years
What if a friend-shoring scramble triggers a costly duplicative capex wave that raises goods costs structurally?
21%3–10 years
What if China-Vietnam agree a joint development zone in disputed seas?
21%1–3 years
What if US-China decouple chip supply chains, raising structural costs?
21%1–3 years
What if Comprehensive US-China deal eases tariffs and Taiwan tension?
21%1–3 years
What if ASEAN-China joint patrols ease South China Sea tanker war-risk?
21%1–3 years
What if Critical-minerals club sets allied price floors?
21%1–3 years
What if Chinese-import flood deindustrializes Thai manufacturing base?
21%1–3 years
What if ASEAN-China RCEP integration deepens regional supply chains?
21%6–18 months
What if China copper-scrap flood undercuts refined-cathode demand?
21%6–18 months
What if Global industrial recession sinks the whole base-metals complex?
21%1–3 years
What if Stainless-steel demand slump compounds the nickel surplus?
21%6–18 months
What if Madagascar and Mozambique graphite disruption tightens flake?
21%1–3 years
What if China power-demand surge lifts coal, gas and grid build at once?
21%6–18 months
What if BIOSECURE-style China decoupling disrupts CDMO supply chains?
21%3–10 years
What if China's thin pension safety net forces high precautionary saving?
20%1–3 years
What if China cracked sub-5nm chips on its own?
20%6–18 months
What if China halted its rare-earth and gallium exports?
20%1–3 years
What if an overvalued housing market collapses in Canada or Australia?
20%0–6 months
What if China's trust giants freeze $200bn of redemptions?
20%6–18 months
What if China's oil demand collapses into deep surplus?
20%0–6 months
What if Myanmar's rare-earth mines collapse in the civil war?
20%1–3 years
What if China's commercial-property downturn broadens beyond residential?
20%6–18 months
What if a Chinese demand slump plunges copper prices?
20%6–18 months
What if a China hard landing tips Australia into recession?
20%6–18 months
What if a China hard landing collapses copper demand and sends LME prices down 30%?
20%6–18 months
What if Washington sharply tightens controls on advanced AI chips to China and closes third-country loopholes?
20%1–3 years
What if China-Philippines reach a Second Thomas resupply modus vivendi?
20%6–18 months
What if China property-debt deflation drags down regional risk assets?
20%1–3 years
What if China-India BRICS-anchored détente deepens economic ties?
20%1–3 years
What if US-Greenland minerals-security deal locks in supply?
20%6–18 months
What if US bans all advanced-AI chip sales to China?
20%1–3 years
What if Brazil-China currency-swap deepens de-dollarized trade?
20%1–3 years
What if Pakistan taps a Panda bond, diversifying funding to RMB?
20%1–3 years
What if Hungary's Eastern-Opening FDI pivot disappoints?
20%1–3 years
What if Kazakhstan attracts Western critical-minerals capital?
20%0–6 months
What if Iron ore and copper diverge as China stimulates property not industry?
20%6–18 months
What if China bans rare-earth processing technology exports?
20%6–18 months
What if China graphite-and-magnet retaliation answers US chip curbs?
20%6–18 months
What if Battery-metal demand shock from a China stimulus surprise?
20%6–18 months
What if PBOC stealth tightening via fixing blunts the global reflation trade?
20%1–3 years
What if China engineers a 5nm-class breakthrough despite sanctions?
20%1–3 years
What if China stimulus disappoints: half-measures fail to halt property bust?
20%6–18 months
What if Australian iron-ore receipts swing with the China property impulse?
19%0–6 months
What if Guinea bans bauxite exports after a coup?
19%6–18 months
What if Chinese dams trigger a Mekong drought downstream?
19%0–6 months
What if container freight rates spike fivefold?
19%6–18 months
What if luxury spending collapses in China and the US?
19%1–3 years
What if Vanke defaults and shatters China's state-backstop assumption?
19%1–3 years
What if China's infrastructure cutbacks crush copper, steel and cement demand?
19%1–3 years
What if regulators force sweeping consolidation of China's small lenders?
19%6–18 months
What if capital flight overwhelms China's controls and drains FX reserves?
19%1–3 years
What if China's economy hard-lands at around 3% growth?
19%1–3 years
What if a China hard landing inflicts terms-of-trade shocks on EM commodity exporters?
19%0–6 months
What if a China stimulus letdown unwinds the commodity-reflation trade?
19%6–18 months
What if tightened US chip export controls choke China's AI and tech ambitions?
19%1–3 years
What if a deeper China slowdown slashes Japanese machinery and capital-goods exports?
19%6–18 months
What if Chinese steel output contracts and sends iron ore from $120 toward $70 per tonne?
19%6–18 months
What if universal US tariffs pass through to consumer prices and force the Fed to hold rates higher?
19%6–18 months
What if Beijing bans rare-earth exports and chokes defense, EV and wind-turbine supply chains?
19%1–3 years
What if China-Japan-Korea summit revives full economic cooperation?
19%6–18 months
What if West tightens tech-export controls on China bloc?
19%6–18 months
What if Chip-equipment export ban widens to allies?
19%6–18 months
What if China hard-landing crushes LatAm commodity exporters?
19%6–18 months
What if FPI 'sell India, buy China' rotation pressures NIFTY?
19%1–3 years
What if Thailand competitiveness erosion as China+1 bypasses it?
19%1–3 years
What if Vietnam US-tech-FDI chill as tariff/transshipment fight drags?
19%6–18 months
What if Pakistan rolls maturity wall only via emergency bilateral deposits?
19%1–3 years
What if Angola oil-collateralized China loans force a quiet rescheduling?
19%0–6 months
What if China-growth disappointment drags commodity-EM currencies lower?
19%1–3 years
What if Lithium price war from Chinese state subsidy buries Western mines?
19%6–18 months
What if DRC-China cobalt offtake renegotiation rattles supply terms?
19%6–18 months
What if China rhardens dual-use end-user rules on critical metals?
19%6–18 months
What if Chinese lithium futures clampdown jolts the price benchmark?
19%6–18 months
What if US foreign-entity sourcing rules lock Chinese metals out of credits?
19%6–18 months
What if US tariffs on Chinese graphite reprice the anode supply chain?
19%6–18 months
What if G7 critical-minerals buyers' club counters Chinese pricing?
19%6–18 months
What if Chile-China lithium-tech venture deepens processing ties?
19%6–18 months
What if PBOC shifts to a stronger yuan-fixing regime to curb outflows?
19%6–18 months
What if PBOC defends the yuan with offshore liquidity squeeze and bill sales?
19%6–18 months
What if PBOC credibility erodes as half-measures fail to stop deflation?
19%6–18 months
What if Luxury-demand downturn de-rates the high end as the K rolls over?
19%3–10 years
What if China policy pivot to families and productivity steadies growth (good)?
18%0–6 months
What if the PBOC devalues the yuan past 7.5 to the dollar?
18%1–3 years
What if Chinese home prices fall 30% from their 2021 peak?
18%1–3 years
What if a yuan devaluation exports Chinese deflation to the rest of the world?
18%1–3 years
What if collapsing Chinese demand and EV competition hammer German industry?
18%6–18 months
What if the US imposes tariffs above 100% on broad categories of Chinese goods?
18%6–18 months
What if China's EV price war collapses auto manufacturer margins across the sector?
18%6–18 months
What if the US and EU escalate secondary sanctions on banks handling Russian trade?
18%6–18 months
What if the US pressures allies to align tariffs against China?
18%0–6 months
What if China retaliates with broad US-goods tariffs?
18%0–6 months
What if China zeroes US soybean imports in retaliation?
18%1–3 years
What if US-China military hotline cuts miscalc risk?
18%1–3 years
What if China dumps US Treasuries as a sanctions weapon?
18%6–18 months
What if China bans key EV-battery tech exports?
18%0–6 months
What if Rare-earth scare drives MP/Lynas spike?
18%1–3 years
What if Tech-bloc bifurcation hard-codes two standards?
18%1–3 years
What if China-Taiwan economic blockade tail re-prices semis?
18%6–18 months
What if US-China financial decoupling delists Chinese ADRs?
18%0–6 months
What if Thai baht slump as tourism arrivals miss on China pullback?
18%1–3 years
What if Paris Club relevance fades as China and Gulf creditors dominate?
18%6–18 months
What if China bismuth and indium curbs hit solders and displays?
18%6–18 months
What if China rare-earth quota hike floods the magnet-metal market?
18%6–18 months
What if Myanmar rare-earth supply cutoff jolts heavy-REE feed?
18%6–18 months
What if China lithium-conversion tech curb slows Western refiners?
18%6–18 months
What if Rare-earth oxide stockpile dump by China resets prices lower?
18%6–18 months
What if Solar-module price war crushes manufacturer margins?
18%6–18 months
What if China property-equity rout drags HSI and global cyclicals?
18%6–18 months
What if China housing-led deflation exports disinflation to global goods?
17%6–18 months
What if a second Evergrande spreads China's property crisis worldwide?
17%0–6 months
What if Vanke defaults outright and Beijing's backstop disappears?
17%0–6 months
What if China's mortgage boycott flares up again?
17%6–18 months
What if a Chinese tech giant spirals into a debt crisis?
17%1–3 years
What if SMIC reaches TSMC-class 5nm economics without EUV?
17%6–18 months
What if Chinese buyers strike over undelivered pre-sold homes?
17%0–6 months
What if a once-in-a-century flood inundates the Yangtze basin?
17%6–18 months
What if stalled presold Chinese apartments trigger mortgage boycotts and a confidence collapse?
17%6–18 months
What if Beijing's property rescue fund proves far too small to restart projects?
17%6–18 months
What if PBoC easing widens the China-US rate gap and accelerates yuan outflows?
17%1–3 years
What if iron ore falls toward $50 per tonne in a deep China hard landing?
17%6–18 months
What if a China downturn slashes Korean semiconductor and machinery exports?
17%6–18 months
What if China bans rare-earth exports to retaliate against tech restrictions?
17%1–3 years
What if a Chinese infrastructure stimulus drives copper and iron ore sharply higher?
17%6–18 months
What if China Coast Guard 'customs quarantine' of Taiwan's Kinmen?
17%1–3 years
What if Six-Party-style talks restart over North Korea's arsenal?
17%1–3 years
What if China-Japan-Korea trilateral FTA talks restart amid détente?
17%6–18 months
What if China retaliatory tech curbs squeeze ASML/Applied in Asia?
17%6–18 months
What if China adds gallium-germanium-graphite export bans?
17%6–18 months
What if Full US-China tech decoupling fractures supply chains?
17%3–10 years
What if US-China cold-war détente stabilizes the system?
17%1–3 years
What if South China Sea clash jolts global shipping?
17%1–3 years
What if EV adoption erodes structural gasoline demand, narrows cracks?
17%3–10 years
What if China demographic decline weighs on long-run growth path?
16%0–6 months
What if China slides back into outright deflation?
16%0–6 months
What if Beijing unleashes a 10 trillion yuan fiscal bazooka?
16%1–3 years
What if China prosecutes offshore issuers of yuan-linked stablecoins?
16%1–3 years
What if Myanmar's junta collapses and the country fragments?
16%6–18 months
What if Germany forces COSCO out of Hamburg's port?
16%0–6 months
What if the US hits major Chinese banks with secondary sanctions?
16%1–3 years
What if offshore creditors of Chinese developers face near-zero recoveries?
16%6–18 months
What if defending the yuan forces China to tighten onshore rates during a property crisis?
16%6–18 months
What if record Chinese steel exports flood world markets and crush margins?
16%6–18 months
What if Hong Kong banks book heavy losses on mainland China exposures?
16%6–18 months
What if China sharply tightens capital controls to stem outflows?
16%1–3 years
What if US-China decoupling accelerates sharply and fragments global supply chains?
16%1–3 years
What if a China hard landing exports a powerful deflationary shock worldwide?
16%6–18 months
What if Germany's industrial production falls more than 8% as energy costs and China demand weaken?
16%0–6 months
What if Beijing front-runs a US tariff hike with an immediate across-the-board retaliation?
16%6–18 months
What if Beijing extends export licensing to battery-grade graphite and antimony, squeezing EV and defense makers?
16%1–3 years
What if multinationals accelerate China exits and FDI into China turns net-negative?
16%1–3 years
What if trade reorganizes along geopolitical lines into US-aligned and China-aligned blocs?
16%1–3 years
What if China-Japan Senkaku standoff after a CCG incursion surge?
16%6–18 months
What if AUKUS Pillar-2 expands; China decries a regional arms race?
16%6–18 months
What if South China Sea oil-route fear lifts Brent and Asian fuel cracks?
16%6–18 months
What if China cuts off antimony and tungsten to the West?
16%1–3 years
What if Digital-yuan cross-border rails gain trade share?
16%1–3 years
What if Pacific naval incident triggers risk-off spasm?
16%6–18 months
What if JKM spikes as Asian utilities outbid Europe for winter LNG?
16%6–18 months
What if China summer power crunch forces industrial curtailment?
15%1–3 years
What if China sinks a Philippine ship in the South China Sea?
15%1–3 years
What if a major Chinese province becomes effectively insolvent?
15%1–3 years
What if China's FX reserves drop below the $2.5 trillion adequacy threshold?
15%6–18 months
What if weak Chinese demand caps and then drags global crude oil prices?
15%1–3 years
What if the US bans outbound investment in Chinese AI and semiconductors?
15%6–18 months
What if a sharp China slowdown collapses Korean intermediate-goods and petrochemical exports?
15%6–18 months
What if China escalates rare-earth export controls and chokes magnet supply?
15%6–18 months
What if a China property-completion push sharply lifts copper, steel and aluminium demand?
15%6–18 months
What if the US and EU impose steep tariffs on Chinese solar modules, batteries and EVs?
15%1–3 years
What if Chinese export curbs on rare earths and battery metals drive a multi-fold price spike?
15%1–3 years
What if the US and EU race to stockpile critical minerals but multi-year lead times leave supply chains exposed?
15%6–18 months
What if the Netherlands halts EUV servicing and new DUV lithography sales to China?
15%1–3 years
What if Beijing retaliates against chip equipment controls by curbing mature-node chip exports?
15%6–18 months
What if a China demand slump unleashes export dumping of steel, solar and EVs and triggers global tariff retaliation?
15%0–6 months
What if the US snaps a 25% tariff on broad Chinese goods overnight?
15%6–18 months
What if a broad Section 301 action layers new tariffs on Chinese shipbuilding and chips?
15%1–3 years
What if North Korea joins a China-Russia bloc in a formal trilateral pact?
15%1–3 years
What if China quarantine of Taiwan halts chip flow?
15%1–3 years
What if Indonesia resource-nationalism scares off Western EV capital?
15%0–6 months
What if China cuts off all rare-earth magnet exports in a trade rupture?
15%1–3 years
What if Solar-panel trade war: tariffs slow Western deployment?
15%1–3 years
What if China deflation export: factory-gate price falls suppress global CPI?
14%0–6 months
What if bank runs cascade across China's rural lenders?
14%0–6 months
What if collapsing oil revenue breaches Angola's China loan covenants?
14%0–6 months
What if Kenya misses a maturing dollar Eurobond?
14%6–18 months
What if a global recession collapses the copper price?
14%6–18 months
What if a new outbreak locks down Shanghai's ports?
14%1–3 years
What if office vacancy spikes in China's top cities as oversupply meets weak demand?
14%1–3 years
What if cascading Chinese developer defaults freeze land sales and property lending?
14%1–3 years
What if mounting small-bank failures exhaust China's deposit-insurance fund?
14%1–3 years
What if Chinese GDP growth collapses toward 2%?
14%1–3 years
What if China's industrial overcapacity triggers a global wave of protective tariffs?
14%6–18 months
What if foreign investors flee Chinese equities and bonds in a record exodus?
14%1–3 years
What if China and Japan are simultaneously stuck in balance-sheet recessions?
14%1–3 years
What if a China slowdown triggers distress among Belt-and-Road borrowers?
14%6–18 months
What if capital flight via crypto rails undermines China's currency controls?
14%1–3 years
What if a sharp yuan devaluation drags Asian currencies and equities lower?
14%1–3 years
What if weak Chinese activity caps LNG import growth and loosens the global gas market?
14%1–3 years
What if China's overcapacity floods global aluminium and nickel markets?
14%6–18 months
What if a China steel-demand collapse triggers earnings shocks at BHP, Rio and Vale?
14%6–18 months
What if China's manufacturing PMI stays entrenched in contraction?
14%6–18 months
What if a China hard landing collapses oil demand and sends Brent toward $50?
14%1–3 years
What if a China-driven iron ore slump cuts Brazil's export receipts and pressures the BRL?
14%6–18 months
What if weak Chinese construction and restarted smelters flood the aluminium market below $2,000 per tonne?
14%6–18 months
What if China retaliates against US tariffs with regulatory probes and selective import bans rather than matching duties?
14%1–3 years
What if tariffs on pharmaceuticals and active ingredients expose US dependence on China and India API supply?
14%1–3 years
What if China targets US soybeans, corn and pork with retaliatory tariffs and collapses US farm exports?
14%6–18 months
What if an expanded CFIUS-style regime blocks Chinese investment across tech, biotech and infrastructure?
14%3–10 years
What if US- and China-led technology stacks harden into incompatible blocs?
14%6–18 months
What if threatened US tariffs on Mexico over Chinese transshipment disrupt nearshoring bets and the peso?
14%1–3 years
What if competing industrial subsidies escalate into a global subsidy war?
14%1–3 years
What if catastrophic flooding across China's major river basins damages banks?
14%1–3 years
What if Secondary-sanctions wave on Russia oil buyers?
14%6–18 months
What if China-Russia Arctic axis deepens?
14%6–18 months
What if China brokers a Ukraine ceasefire framework?
14%6–18 months
What if Iran-Saudi détente holds and deepens?
14%0–6 months
What if China dumping floods Vietnam with goods, widens trade deficit?
14%1–3 years
What if Laos opaque China debt forces hidden-loan restructuring disclosure?
14%0–6 months
What if Copper jumps as Chinese smelters announce coordinated output cuts?
13%6–18 months
What if Pakistan defaults on its sovereign debt?
13%0–6 months
What if a PLA coast-guard ship sinks a Japanese patrol boat near the Senkakus?
13%1–3 years
What if Washington weaponises dollar clearing against a Gulf state?
13%6–18 months
What if a strong dollar and weak China demand drive the ringgit to multi-decade lows?
13%1–3 years
What if accelerated friend-shoring disrupts global manufacturing supply chains?
13%1–3 years
What if China's bank-recap needs force de facto PBoC monetization of sovereign bonds?
13%1–3 years
What if a yuan devaluation ignites competitive currency responses across Asia?
13%1–3 years
What if a China industrial slowdown slashes thermal-coal imports and pressures exporters?
13%1–3 years
What if the EU and US erect steep tariff walls against Chinese EVs and solar panels?
13%6–18 months
What if a China hard landing transmits simultaneously across Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and ASEAN?
13%1–3 years
What if DRC disruption and Chinese stockpiling weaponize the cobalt market?
13%6–18 months
What if Asian high-yield spreads blow out on China property contagion?
13%1–3 years
What if successive escalation drives bilateral US-China goods trade toward near-zero?
13%1–3 years
What if China restricts tungsten and specialty-metal exports used in tooling and electronics?
13%1–3 years
What if China and Japan restrict photoresists and neon gas essential to chip lithography?
13%6–18 months
What if the US bars American capital and talent from advanced Chinese semiconductor and AI ventures?
13%3–10 years
What if sanctions weaponization splits global payments into rival Western and China-led blocs?
13%6–18 months
What if Washington broadens outbound-investment bans to biotech and clean tech beyond chips and AI?
13%1–3 years
What if the EU adopts a harder inbound and outbound screening regime toward China?
13%6–18 months
What if full EU carbon border adjustment plus retaliation from China and India fragments carbon-intensive trade?
13%6–18 months
What if the US and EU crack down on Chinese goods rerouted via Vietnam and Mexico?
13%6–18 months
What if tit-for-tat duties on wine, spirits and luxury goods escalate an EU-US or EU-China trade dispute?
13%6–18 months
What if security-driven pharma reshoring creates drug shortages and higher costs?
13%3–10 years
What if China abruptly expands its ETS into steel, cement and aluminium?
13%6–18 months
What if China declares a Taiwan Strait ADIZ over the median line?
13%6–18 months
What if China deepens military-industrial backing of Russia?
13%6–18 months
What if Mild Asian winter leaves JKM cargoes stranded, prices sink?
12%0–6 months
What if hidden outflows drain $150bn from China's reserves in a quarter?
12%1–3 years
What if China caps its dollar reserves?
12%0–6 months
What if Asian central banks intervene jointly in currencies?
12%0–6 months
What if the PLA fires on a Philippine resupply mission at Mischief Reef?
12%6–18 months
What if China declares an inspection zone in the Taiwan Strait?
12%0–6 months
What if the US sanctions Chinese banks over Iran's oil?
12%1–3 years
What if European auto OEMs and suppliers face a fallen-angel downgrade wave?
12%1–3 years
What if the yuan breaks 8.0 per dollar in a disorderly slide?
12%1–3 years
What if a Chinese slowdown slashes soybean and grain imports?
12%6–18 months
What if stress in China's bond market freezes primary issuance for weaker borrowers?
12%6–18 months
What if Chinese government bond yields collapse below 2% as deflation takes hold?
12%1–3 years
What if a renewed crackdown forces China's tech platforms to deleverage and cut jobs?
12%1–3 years
What if a Chinese financial crisis triggers a global flight to safety?
12%6–18 months
What if Hong Kong IPO volumes and asset-management inflows collapse on China uncertainty?
12%6–18 months
What if markets stop trusting the PBoC's daily yuan-fixing as a depreciation anchor?
12%3–10 years
What if China enters a Japan-style lost decade of sub-3% growth and deflation?
12%6–18 months
What if foreign outflows via Stock Connect spiral as China-stability fears mount?
12%1–3 years
What if Chinese households and the PBoC pivot hard into gold as a store of value?
12%6–18 months
What if Chinese and Hong Kong developer equities are effectively wiped out in restructurings?
12%6–18 months
What if foreign investors dump Chinese government bonds on yuan-depreciation fears?
12%1–3 years
What if escalating US-China tech restrictions disrupt global electronics supply chains both ways?
12%1–3 years
What if a China hard landing routs AUD, BRL and other commodity-linked currencies?
12%6–18 months
What if a China growth scare triggers a broad base-metals selloff in copper and aluminium?
12%1–3 years
What if a protracted China downturn forces sweeping growth downgrades across EM Asia?
12%6–18 months
What if the EV transition, Chinese competition and tariffs cut German vehicle output sharply?
12%6–18 months
What if rising China property defaults surge through Hong Kong banks' mainland exposure?
12%6–18 months
What if a China demand slump crashes thermal-coal prices and hits Indonesia's largest export?
12%6–18 months
What if weak margins prompt Chinese refiners to slash crude runs and import quotas?
12%6–18 months
What if simultaneous copper, iron ore and coal price falls compress diversified miner margins?
12%6–18 months
What if a China slowdown tips zinc and lead into a global glut?
12%6–18 months
What if a China demand shock pushes copper below $6,500 and hits Chile's finances?
12%6–18 months
What if China tightens graphite export licenses and starves non-Chinese gigafactories?
12%1–3 years
What if aquifer depletion and river drought constrain irrigated agriculture and lower yields?
12%1–3 years
What if Chinese property developers keep defaulting on dollar bonds?
12%1–3 years
What if a full Western embargo on frontier AI accelerators bifurcates the global compute stack?
12%1–3 years
What if forced decoupling strands China-exposed plants and IP for Western firms?
12%1–3 years
What if Western tech export controls and Chinese mineral counter-controls escalate into a mutual export-control spiral?
12%1–3 years
What if restrictions on Chinese-made cranes and port logistics tech force costly replacement across Western ports?
12%6–18 months
What if a sweeping US Entity List expansion cuts off Chinese tech firms?
12%1–3 years
What if export controls on chip-design software and AI models escalate?
12%1–3 years
What if China's subsidised AI-chip push floods mature-node markets with overcapacity?
12%1–3 years
What if China restricts outbound tourism and study to coerce target economies?
12%6–18 months
What if China repeats its 2020 trade coercion against another economy's exports?
12%6–18 months
What if the US tariffs Chinese electronics routed through Mexico?
12%3–10 years
What if Chinese EV exports strand Western ICE producers and trigger tariff retaliation?
12%1–3 years
What if Chinese cyberattack dark-starts Taiwan's power grid?
12%0–6 months
What if Scarborough Shoal 'nature reserve' enforced as a China blockade?
12%1–3 years
What if China-India LAC clash reignites in eastern Ladakh?
12%0–6 months
What if US-China Busan truce extended past Nov 2026?
12%0–6 months
What if Trade-war détente sparks SOX/SMH melt-up?
12%1–3 years
What if South China Sea flare-up spikes Philippine risk premium?
12%1–3 years
What if China hard-landing drags commodity-linked ASEAN exporters?
12%1–3 years
What if AI automation hollows ASEAN low-end manufacturing jobs?
12%6–18 months
What if Jet-fuel demand recovery in China tightens Asian middle distillates?
12%1–3 years
What if Yangtze megadrought idles China hydropower & shipping?
12%6–18 months
What if Taiwan Strait quarantine spikes the chip risk premium?
11%3–10 years
What if China's shrinking population leaves a structural housing glut in lower-tier cities?
11%1–3 years
What if China's banking system needs a sovereign-funded recapitalization?
11%1–3 years
What if a China financial crisis reverses outbound investment into Vietnam and ASEAN?
11%1–3 years
What if capital flight pushes China toward a balance-of-payments deficit?
11%1–3 years
What if China expands critical-mineral export controls in retaliation for tech restrictions?
11%6–18 months
What if the DAX slumps on high energy costs, weak Chinese demand and margin compression?
11%6–18 months
What if Germany's export model stalls on weak Chinese demand, US tariffs and high energy costs?
11%6–18 months
What if a demand air-pocket in Korean EV batteries and shipbuilding sours supply-chain credit?
11%6–18 months
What if China's property downturn transmits directly into Hong Kong bank loan books through developer exposure?
11%6–18 months
What if a broad dollar funding squeeze hits Asia-ex-China banks simultaneously?
11%6–18 months
What if an intensified US-China tariff war tips export-dependent Asian economies into recession?
11%1–3 years
What if rapid EV and LNG-truck adoption structurally caps Chinese gasoline and diesel demand?
11%1–3 years
What if low oil pushes heavily China-indebted Angola back toward debt distress?
11%6–18 months
What if Chinese rebar prices fall below cash cost and export steel deflation globally?
11%6–18 months
What if iron ore and coking coal collapse together on a China steel contraction?
11%1–3 years
What if Western export controls and Chinese countermeasures bifurcate critical-minerals markets?
11%1–3 years
What if China extends phosphate fertilizer export restrictions and tightens global supply?
11%6–18 months
What if China releases strategic base-metal reserves to cap domestic prices during a squeeze?
11%1–3 years
What if China oversupply and energy costs tip chemicals credit into a downturn?
11%6–18 months
What if Washington threatens secondary sanctions on Chinese banks aiding Russia's war economy?
11%1–3 years
What if escalating EV-tariff disputes spiral into a broad EU-China trade conflict?
11%1–3 years
What if a broad US-China rupture spanning trade, tech, finance and Taiwan hits simultaneously?
11%1–3 years
What if mandated removal of Chinese 5G equipment fragments the global telecom stack?
11%1–3 years
What if controls on drones and dual-use sensors, met by Chinese counter-controls, disrupt defense supply chains?
11%1–3 years
What if Beijing's Unreliable-Entity List penalises Western multinationals?
11%3–10 years
What if China builds a parallel demand bloc across the Global South?
11%1–3 years
What if allied governments purge Chinese-linked port and logistics software?
11%6–18 months
What if drought forces curtailment of thermal and nuclear power plants?
11%3–10 years
What if over-extracted aquifers deplete, cutting irrigated-crop output in major farming regions?
11%1–3 years
What if China seizes Taiwan's Pratas (Dongsha) atoll?
11%1–3 years
What if ASEAN tourism reliance backfires as China outbound stalls?
10%6–18 months
What if the US banned all advanced AI chips from China?
10%0–6 months
What if a Chinese province openly defaults despite Beijing?
10%0–6 months
What if a Chinese polysilicon blast doubles solar module prices?
10%0–6 months
What if China reveals it has tripled its gold reserves?
10%1–3 years
What if China starts building an island at Scarborough Shoal?
10%1–3 years
What if China and India fight a full mountain war in Ladakh?
10%0–6 months
What if China bans exports of all rare-earth magnets?
10%1–3 years
What if Chinese local-government financing vehicles crystallize commercial-property losses?
10%1–3 years
What if Chinese residential prices fall 35% as the property downturn deepens?
10%1–3 years
What if collapsing Chinese land-sale revenue pushes local-government financing vehicles toward distress?
10%0–6 months
What if a new wave of Chinese mortgage boycotts on stalled projects pressures banks?
10%6–18 months
What if a collapse in copper prices undercuts Chile's exports and widens the fiscal gap?
10%1–3 years
What if a sharp China slowdown collapses commodity demand and hits EM exporters across three regions?
10%1–3 years
What if China abandons its managed float and lets the yuan fall freely?
10%1–3 years
What if China's property, LGFV and shadow-bank stresses combine into a systemic crisis?
10%6–18 months
What if stress in the offshore yuan market transmits mainland strains to Hong Kong?
10%1–3 years
What if falling asset returns blow a hole in Chinese insurers' and pension funds' balance sheets?
10%1–3 years
What if Chinese life insurers face a negative-spread crisis as investment yields fall below guarantees?
10%3–10 years
What if China's debt overhang and demographics entrench a middle-income trap?
10%1–3 years
What if HSBC and Standard Chartered book heavy provisions on China and Hong Kong loans?
10%1–3 years
What if Beijing injects hundreds of billions into state banks to cover property losses?
10%3–10 years
What if China's debt deleveraging permanently lowers its commodity and import intensity?
10%6–18 months
What if China-stability fears and capital flight drive the Hang Seng into a deep bear market?
10%1–3 years
What if sustained capital flight drains China's reserves toward critical levels?
10%1–3 years
What if the PBoC pivots to QE-style bond buying to fight deflation and fund bank recaps?
10%6–18 months
What if the PBoC engineers an offshore-yuan liquidity squeeze to punish yuan shorts?
10%6–18 months
What if energy costs and Chinese competition force a sharp de-rating of European autos and industrials?
10%1–3 years
What if a China hard landing transmits through Singapore's entrepot trade and wealth-management hub?
10%6–18 months
What if a US-China trade war collapses Hong Kong's re-export and logistics volumes?
10%6–18 months
What if China stimulus under-delivers and removes the oil demand rebound premium?
10%1–3 years
What if China's shift away from blast-furnace steel collapses coking-coal demand?
10%6–18 months
What if a US-China trade rupture disrupts soybean flows and spikes oilseed prices?
10%1–3 years
What if African swine fever resurges and culls China's hog herd at 2018 scale?
10%6–18 months
What if a power-price spike forces European and Chinese aluminium smelters to curtail output?
10%1–3 years
What if China export controls on antimony and tungsten choke Western munitions supply chains?
10%1–3 years
What if China's dominance of lithium refining becomes a chokepoint for non-Chinese battery makers?
10%6–18 months
What if a China-stimulus restock and low port inventories trigger an iron-ore short squeeze?
10%1–3 years
What if phosphate-rock concentration and depletion raise long-run fertilizer costs?
10%1–3 years
What if China's near-total control of rare-earth processing leaves Western magnet supply hostage?
10%1–3 years
What if China curbs magnesium and metallurgical silicon supply and starves global auto supply chains?
10%6–18 months
What if iron ore swings violently as China toggles between property weakness and stimulus restocking?
10%6–18 months
What if a large China stimulus spikes copper, iron ore and aluminium simultaneously?
10%1–3 years
What if China weakness spreads high-yield contagion across Southeast Asia?
10%1–3 years
What if a China-led commodity slump tips leveraged metals and mining into default?
10%1–3 years
What if a major chemicals issuer drifts toward junk amid energy costs and China competition?
10%6–18 months
What if China restricts rare-earth and gallium exports critical to chip manufacturing?
10%6–18 months
What if dollar pressure pushes USD/CNY past 7.50 and revives devaluation fears?
10%3–10 years
What if a PRC invasion of Taiwan triggers sweeping sanctions on China and a global recession?
10%1–3 years
What if major Chinese or Gulf banks are cut from US dollar clearing for sanctions breaches?
10%1–3 years
What if restrictions on nitrogen and potash exports spike fertilizer prices and trigger a global food-inflation shock?
10%1–3 years
What if IP and patent regimes decouple across the US-China divide?
10%3–10 years
What if EU CBAM and copycat schemes hit China's carbon-intensive industrial exports?
10%3–10 years
What if China's young coal-fleet faces stranding under a credible decarbonisation path?
10%1–3 years
What if Beijing imposes a naval 'inspection zone' on Taiwan shipping?
10%6–18 months
What if China builds artificial structures on Scarborough Shoal?
10%1–3 years
What if China-Vietnam clash at Vanguard Bank over oil drilling?
10%1–3 years
What if ASEAN FDI diverted to India undercuts China+1 thesis?
9%0–6 months
What if China re-imposes its gallium and germanium export ban?
9%0–6 months
What if a sting shuts down a Southeast Asian GPU smuggling ring?
9%0–6 months
What if China quarantines Taiwan by inspecting every inbound ship?
9%0–6 months
What if China severs Taiwan's undersea internet cables?
9%0–6 months
What if a US destroyer and a PLA warship collide near the Spratlys?
9%1–3 years
What if Washington and Beijing freeze each other's sovereign assets?
9%0–6 months
What if China bars foreign chip engineers from leaving?
9%1–3 years
What if China lands forces on the Japan-administered Senkakus?
9%0–6 months
What if the US chip-tool ban reaches mature 14 and 28nm nodes?
9%0–6 months
What if the US extends HBM memory curbs further downstream?
9%0–6 months
What if the US cuts off chip-design software to China?
9%0–6 months
What if China reinstates a full gallium and germanium ban?
9%0–6 months
What if the Dutch halt ASML servicing of chip machines in China?
9%0–6 months
What if Japan weaponizes its photoresist and etching-gas exports?
9%1–3 years
What if China's tier-1 city house prices fall 15-20% as confidence breaks?
9%3–10 years
What if China's property sector stays structurally depressed for years with no rebound?
9%1–3 years
What if China suffers a domestic Lehman moment from a major institutional failure?
9%1–3 years
What if China faces a twin currency-and-banking crisis at the same time?
9%1–3 years
What if defaults across LGFVs, SOEs and trusts shatter China's implicit-guarantee regime?
9%1–3 years
What if escalating semiconductor export controls disrupt Japan's chip-equipment exports?
9%6–18 months
What if a Chinese harvest shortfall drives a surge in global grain and soybean imports?
9%6–18 months
What if a sharp swing in Chinese oil demand drives an outsized move in global crude prices?
9%1–3 years
What if catastrophic aquifer depletion sharply cuts irrigated grain output in China or India?
9%1–3 years
What if EV price wars and China competition push European auto issuers toward default?
9%1–3 years
What if European auto and supplier issuers fall to junk together as EV disruption bites?
9%1–3 years
What if the Asian high-yield primary market shuts as China contagion deters buyers?
9%6–18 months
What if escalating controls cut US chipmakers off from the China market?
9%3–10 years
What if the mBridge CBDC platform scales for commodity settlement outside the dollar?
9%3–10 years
What if reserve managers push the dollar's share below 55% by buying renminbi and gold?
9%3–10 years
What if a Gulf producer invoices oil to China in yuan, cracking the petrodollar?
9%0–6 months
What if China halts gallium and germanium exports and disrupts chip and fiber-optic production worldwide?
9%0–6 months
What if an abrupt rule change halts AI-chip exports to China overnight?
9%1–3 years
What if the US and allies formalise a multilateral chip export-control regime against China?
9%0–6 months
What if China tightens gallium/germanium ban on chip toolmakers?
9%1–3 years
What if South China Sea tanker incident spikes Brent war-risk premium?
9%1–3 years
What if China mines approaches to a Taiwan port in coercion campaign?
9%1–3 years
What if China-Japan Senkaku clash bids the JPY but tanks the Nikkei?
9%0–6 months
What if US-China truce collapses at the tariff cliff?
9%0–6 months
What if China imposes full rare-earth & magnet embargo?
9%0–6 months
What if NVDA China-revenue cliff on new license freeze?
9%0–6 months
What if US chip-diversion probe slaps curbs on Malaysian data centers?
9%0–6 months
What if China antimony export curb spikes prices over 2,600%?
9%0–6 months
What if China samarium export halt grounds defense magnet supply?
9%0–6 months
What if China critical-metals export-control escalation rattles markets?
8%1–3 years
What if China dumped its US Treasury holdings as a weapon?
8%1–3 years
What if the PLA seizes Taiwan's Kinmen islands?
8%Tail risk
What if China attempts a decapitation strike on Taipei?
8%0–6 months
What if a PLA jet shoots down a US surveillance plane over the Spratlys?
8%1–3 years
What if Hong Kong CRE losses spill to mainland and international banks?
8%1–3 years
What if effective office rents collapse in China's top cities?
8%1–3 years
What if Chinese trust products tied to property developers default and hit retail investors?
8%0–6 months
What if Chinese new-home sales collapse as buyer confidence stays broken?
8%6–18 months
What if China property contagion hits developers and construction lenders across Southeast Asia?
8%3–10 years
What if high energy costs and an innovation gap erode EU competitiveness versus the US and China?
8%6–18 months
What if Hong Kong is hit simultaneously by China's property slump and high US-driven HIBOR?
8%6–18 months
What if Chinese-backed nickel overcapacity drives Indonesian smelter writedowns and loan losses?
8%6–18 months
What if Chinese credit tightening unwinds commodity inventory-financing deals and forces destocking?
8%1–3 years
What if China local-government financing vehicles face a bond default wave?
8%1–3 years
What if Asian property and conglomerate issuers fall from IG to junk en masse?
8%1–3 years
What if China weakness accelerates Asian IG-to-HY spread decompression?
8%1–3 years
What if China cuts its US Treasury holdings below $700 billion?
8%1–3 years
What if China and Russia complete a full shift to yuan and rouble trade settlement?
8%3–10 years
What if petrostates recycle surpluses into gold and yuan instead of Treasuries?
8%1–3 years
What if Chinese insurers' property developer exposures impair as the property crisis drags on?
8%1–3 years
What if China imposes a customs quarantine on Taiwan that throttles chip flows below the threshold for Western military response?
8%3–10 years
What if US-China relations freeze into a permanent cold-war footing?
8%1–3 years
What if India clashes militarily with Pakistan or China on its borders?
8%3–10 years
What if China's subsidised solar, battery and EV overcapacity collapses into a bust?
8%1–3 years
What if Fatal China-Japan air-sea incident near the Senkakus?
8%1–3 years
What if China air-sea quarantine cuts Taiwan's fuel imports?
8%0–6 months
What if PLA fighter weapons-locks a US recon plane over the SCS?
8%1–3 years
What if PLA seizes Taiwan-held Itu Aba in the Spratlys?
8%1–3 years
What if China-Vietnam oil-rig standoff sparks Hanoi anti-China riots?
8%1–3 years
What if China imposes a Taiwan no-fly zone, halting commercial aviation?
8%1–3 years
What if Combined Taiwan blockade + Korea provocation crater Asian markets?
7%1–3 years
What if China blockades Taiwan and chokes the chip supply?
7%0–6 months
What if a Power of Siberia rupture halts Russian gas to China?
7%0–6 months
What if a fire halts America's only rare-earth refinery?
7%1–3 years
What if the PLA seizes territory in Arunachal Pradesh?
7%1–3 years
What if China's robotic satellite disables a US spy satellite in orbit?
7%3–10 years
What if US and Chinese spacecraft square off near the Moon?
7%6–18 months
What if a Western bloc cuts Chinese banks off from SWIFT?
7%1–3 years
What if Chinese residential prices fall 50% in lower-tier cities in a severe scenario?
7%6–18 months
What if a China-led oil demand shock hits Canadian and Norwegian producers in tandem?
7%1–3 years
What if a major commodity exporter shifts contracts away from dollar invoicing?
7%1–3 years
What if China's CIPS gains critical mass as a sanctions-resilient SWIFT alternative?
7%6–18 months
What if renminbi-funded carry into Asian and commodity currencies reverses sharply?
7%1–3 years
What if a large economy converts dollar reserves into gold and commodities to dodge sanctions?
7%1–3 years
What if China's bilateral swap-line web gives partners a viable dollar-light liquidity backstop?
7%6–18 months
What if a dollar-and-yuan shock drags KRW, TWD, THB and INR lower together?
7%1–3 years
What if falling Chinese bond yields open a negative-spread gap in life insurers' legacy policies?
7%3–10 years
What if global green-finance standards divert capital from China's carbon-intensive SOEs?
7%1–3 years
What if US-China confrontation after MDT activation over Manila?
7%1–3 years
What if Limited PLA-Philippine firefight at a contested Spratly reef?
6%1–3 years
What if Xi Jinping is suddenly incapacitated?
6%Tail risk
What if a Taiwan crisis freezes access to Chinese bond markets?
6%1–3 years
What if China and Japan trim US Treasury holdings and lift yields?
6%1–3 years
What if China's nascent C-REIT market de-rates as underlying property values fall?
6%0–6 months
What if the Malaysian ringgit slides to its weakest since the Asian financial crisis?
6%6–18 months
What if rising NPLs across Singapore banks' Greater China and ASEAN subsidiaries compress group capital?
6%1–3 years
What if an Asia-based family office's China-ADR swap book unwinds on a regulatory shock?
6%6–18 months
What if a surprise yuan devaluation reprises the August 2015 deflationary shock?
6%1–3 years
What if a Taiwan conflict prompts G7 sanctions on China and Chinese counter-sanctions?
5%1–3 years
What if India strikes China's mega-dam on the Brahmaputra?
5%6–18 months
What if a cyberattack disrupts a major Chinese bank during geopolitical tension?
5%0–6 months
What if a CNH liquidity squeeze spikes offshore yuan funding costs in Hong Kong?