China — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning China and its globally‑connected markets.
798 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
58%6–18 months
What if China property bust collapses copper demand into glut?
51%3–10 years
What if China's provincial pension funds run out of money?
51%1–3 years
What if Simandou first ore launches a multi-year iron-ore glut?
48%1–3 years
What if China oil demand peaks as EVs and LNG trucks scale?
48%1–3 years
What if Vietnam becomes the #1 China+1 FDI winner (>8% of GDP)?
47%3–10 years
What if plunging births force a wave of Chinese school closures?
47%3–10 years
What if Great Lakes minerals pact diversifies battery supply?
47%1–3 years
What if Indonesia nickel/EV downstreaming windfall lifts export value?
46%6–18 months
What if a Chinese open model tops the global rankings?
46%3–10 years
What if Middle Corridor scales as a Russia-bypass artery?
45%6–18 months
What if China steel-demand slump drags iron ore below $90/t?
45%1–3 years
What if EV truck adoption erodes diesel demand structurally?
45%6–18 months
What if PBOC unleashes a stimulus bazooka to defibrillate demand?
45%1–3 years
What if Vietnam emerges as top non-China electronics export hub?
44%1–3 years
What if Apple shifts a quarter of iPhone output to India?
44%1–3 years
What if Indonesia EV-battery cluster anchors Korean/Chinese FDI?
44%1–3 years
What if Solar-plus-storage cost collapse makes clean power the default build?
43%3–10 years
What if Japan, Korea or China hits a demographic tipping point?
43%3–10 years
What if India emerges as a third pole between the US and China?
42%0–6 months
What if China extends its phosphate export halt?
42%3–10 years
What if China grows old before rich, trend GDP stalls toward 3%?
42%0–6 months
What if Copper smelter TC/RCs turn negative in concentrate famine?
42%1–3 years
What if MSCI India weight overtakes China in EM benchmark?
42%0–6 months
What if PBOC cuts the RRR to flood the banking system with liquidity?
42%1–3 years
What if US-Congo minerals deal anchors EV supply chain?
42%3–10 years
What if Vietnam 'China+1' FDI surge powers VND and equities?
41%3–10 years
What if Arctic militarization race lifts Nordic defense?
41%6–18 months
What if Dong tracks weaker CNY as PBoC fixes drift higher?
40%6–18 months
What if Asian LNG demand slump leaves Qatari cargoes chasing buyers?
40%1–3 years
What if Bulk-miner equities slump as iron ore enters secular decline?
40%1–3 years
What if Beijing subsidizes AI-chip exports to the Global South?
40%1–3 years
What if China strategic stockpiling soaks up surplus barrels?
40%1–3 years
What if a Chinese lab matches a US flagship using only domestic chips?
40%1–3 years
What if Germany's export model finally breaks?
40%6–18 months
What if the US barred outbound investment in Chinese tech?
40%6–18 months
What if PBOC backstops the property sector with targeted relending tools?
40%0–6 months
What if PBOC trims policy rates (LPR/MLF) to revive credit demand?
40%3–10 years
What if the world splits into rival US and China tech blocs?
39%3–10 years
What if China+1 FDI wave lifts India FDI past $100bn a year?
39%6–18 months
What if China exports deflation as factory-gate prices collapse?
39%0–6 months
What if China reinstates its antimony export ban?
39%3–10 years
What if China's missing buyers leave 60m+ surplus homes unsold?
39%6–18 months
What if PBOC stabilization fund underpins onshore equities and confidence?
39%0–6 months
What if US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods?
38%0–6 months
What if China copper-import surge front-runs grid-spending push?
38%6–18 months
What if China floods the world with subsidized steel and solar?
38%3–10 years
What if China races to automate before its workforce shrinks too far?
38%1–3 years
What if China approves fifty new reactors in a single year?
38%6–18 months
What if China steel-stimulus surprise sparks iron-ore squeeze?
38%1–3 years
What if Iron ore collapses to $50/t as China steel output peaks?
38%6–18 months
What if PBOC and fiscal authorities co-launch a consumption-stimulus combo?
37%3–10 years
What if China dependency ratio spike drags commodity super-cycle to a close?
37%3–10 years
What if India becomes the world's marginal growth engine as China fades?
37%1–3 years
What if New Asian refining mega-projects deepen the product glut?
37%6–18 months
What if PBOC bazooka reflates global miners and EM cyclicals?
37%6–18 months
What if RBA pivots to cuts as China-demand drag cools Australian prices?
36%6–18 months
What if Angola oil windfall pays down China oil-backed loans?
36%6–18 months
What if PBOC interest-on-reserves cut pushes banks to lend, not hoard?
36%6–18 months
What if China's central bank unleashes a stimulus bazooka?
36%6–18 months
What if PBOC weaker-fix tolerance unleashes pent-up domestic stimulus?
36%6–18 months
What if US and EU tariffs triple solar panel costs?
35%0–6 months
What if rules close the offshore cloud loophole for controlled chips?
35%6–18 months
What if Surplus crude floods Asian storage, capping Dubai?
35%6–18 months
What if US-China truce extended a second year to 2027?
34%3–10 years
What if China and Russia formalise an anti-Western alliance?
34%3–10 years
What if China's eldercare build-out becomes a domestic-demand growth pillar?
34%6–18 months
What if China stabilization bazooka revives property and lifts copper and AUD?
34%6–18 months
What if China unleashes large fiscal-monetary stimulus?
34%1–3 years
What if Global de-escalation drives a synchronized risk-on year?
34%1–3 years
What if Great-power climate-tech cooperation resumes?
34%1–3 years
What if Iron-ore majors flood market to defend market share?
34%1–3 years
What if Lithium oversupply trough deepens, carbonate down 80% from peak?
34%3–10 years
What if Magnet recycling ends rare-earth dependence?
34%1–3 years
What if MP Materials magnet plant breaks China's NdFeB grip?
34%3–10 years
What if Saudi and Gulf critical-minerals push diversifies refining?
33%1–3 years
What if ASEAN-5 supply-chain bloc captures China+1 manufacturing wave?
33%1–3 years
What if China floods the world with cheap humanoid robots?
33%0–6 months
What if China reimposes its graphite export curbs?
33%6–18 months
What if CNH firms to 6.9 as US-China tension fades?
33%1–3 years
What if Chinese households permanently hoard their savings?
33%1–3 years
What if Gulf sovereign-AI buildout becomes a third demand pillar?
33%3–10 years
What if India PLI scheme turns the country into a generics-export hub?
33%1–3 years
What if Indo-Pacific deterrence buildout lifts allied Asian defense budgets?
33%1–3 years
What if Thailand EV-supply-chain pivot draws Chinese auto FDI?
33%1–3 years
What if US-China chip détente: targeted export-control rollback?
33%1–3 years
What if US-EU-Japan tech alliance counters China scale?
33%0–6 months
What if the Wa State keeps the Man Maw tin mine shut?
32%3–10 years
What if Allied rare-earth alliance pools refining outside China?
32%6–18 months
What if ASML-TSM relief rally on export-rule clarity?
32%1–3 years
What if Brazil soybean export boom captures lost US China share?
32%6–18 months
What if China-allowed Nvidia chip sales resume under deal?
32%1–3 years
What if China biotech licensing wave feeds Western pharma pipelines cheaply?
32%1–3 years
What if China grain-demand softening loosens the global feed market?
32%3–10 years
What if China module flood drives global solar toward $0.05/W?
32%0–6 months
What if China secretly stockpiles copper and cobalt?
32%1–3 years
What if China stimulus reflation lifts ASEAN commodity exporters?
32%3–10 years
What if EM ex-China dividend basket outperforms aging DM for a decade?
32%3–10 years
What if India's manufacturing absorbs its youth bulge into formal jobs?
32%1–3 years
What if Lynas Texas heavy-rare-earth refinery cracks the Dy/Tb chokehold?
32%1–3 years
What if SMIC/Huawei domestic-stack acceleration erodes US chip share?
32%0–6 months
What if Soybeans rally as China resumes US buying?
32%1–3 years
What if Thailand tourism super-recovery hits 36m arrivals?
32%3–10 years
What if Vietnam's golden demographic window powers a manufacturing decade?
31%6–18 months
What if Asian teapot run cuts deepen the crude surplus?
31%6–18 months
What if a China slowdown craters iron ore, copper and coal?
31%0–6 months
What if China bans phosphate fertilizer exports outright?
31%1–3 years
What if China stimulus revives SSA commodity-export demand?
31%6–18 months
What if India demand surge becomes the new marginal-barrel engine?
31%3–10 years
What if Rare-earth-free motor designs cut neodymium dependence?
31%1–3 years
What if Shipbuilding push funds a US Navy fleet-expansion super-cycle?
31%6–18 months
What if Trump-Xi détente reopens US-China mil-to-mil hotline?
31%1–3 years
What if US tightens rules-of-origin, squeezing ASEAN transshipment?
31%6–18 months
What if Vietnam textile/footwear orders shift in from China at scale?
31%0–6 months
What if drought forces Yunnan to cut aluminium output again?
30%1–3 years
What if African spodumene wave from Zimbabwe and Mali floods the market?
30%1–3 years
What if Brazil iron-ore windfall lifts the real on China restock?
30%6–18 months
What if Brazil pivots its soy exports entirely to China?
30%0–6 months
What if China phosphate export curb tightens world DAP/MAP supply?
30%3–10 years
What if China's demographic drag turns it into a structural deflation exporter?
30%1–3 years
What if Chinese smelters idle on negative margins, refined copper squeeze?
30%1–3 years
What if MP-Lynas crack Western heavy-REE supply?
30%1–3 years
What if Synthetic-graphite anode ramp breaks China's anode grip?
30%6–18 months
What if US price-floor magnet policy reshores the rare-earth chain?
29%0–6 months
What if China's African swine fever wave deepens?
29%6–18 months
What if China-EU EV-tariff truce reopens auto trade?
29%6–18 months
What if China's EV price war triggers a wave of bankruptcies?
29%6–18 months
What if China lithium curtailment rebound snaps spodumene off the floor?
29%1–3 years
What if China lithium import-quality crackdown squeezes spodumene buyers?
29%3–10 years
What if China property-fiscal doom loop crushes iron ore, copper and AUD?
29%3–10 years
What if China reactor build-out tightens the global uranium balance?
29%1–3 years
What if Critical-minerals scramble re-rates SSA mining sovereigns?
29%1–3 years
What if Cross-border audit deal keeps Chinese listings in US?
29%3–10 years
What if Ethiopia and Kenya capture a manufacturing-led dividend?
29%1–3 years
What if Garment-export rebound widens Bangladesh's trade surplus?
29%1–3 years
What if India absorbs the largest share of EM dedicated inflows?
29%1–3 years
What if Indo-Pacific trade pact deepens regional integration?
29%3–10 years
What if Magnet recycling scales recovered rare earths from e-waste?
29%3–10 years
What if Peru Chancay mega-port turns it a Pacific trade hub?
29%1–3 years
What if Phase-two US-China deal stabilizes trade?
29%1–3 years
What if Qatar locks decades of Asian LNG offtake at premium terms?
29%6–18 months
What if a second wave of Chinese developer defaults hits Vanke and Longfor?
29%6–18 months
What if US-China grand bargain on chips and minerals?
29%6–18 months
What if the US and China strike a sweeping trade détente?
29%1–3 years
What if Xi signals 'patience' on reunification, dropping timeline talk?
28%6–18 months
What if Beijing property-rescue package clears unsold-inventory overhang?
28%6–18 months
What if the US slapped a blanket 60% tariff on Chinese imports?
28%1–3 years
What if China industrial overcapacity floods global machinery and EV markets?
28%1–3 years
What if China-pharma PD-1/ADC innovation reshapes oncology competition?
28%1–3 years
What if China reaches 7nm-at-scale, blunting controls?
28%6–18 months
What if China stimulus reflates commodity-EM exporters and their currencies?
28%1–3 years
What if Chinese EV brands flood Europe and erode legacy-auto margins?
28%1–3 years
What if CNH internationalization advances under truce?
28%1–3 years
What if Copper smelting glut collapses treatment charges to zero?
28%3–10 years
What if Cross-strait flights and tourism fully restored under KMT thaw?
28%6–18 months
What if Export-control thaw lifts equipment makers?
28%1–3 years
What if GPU smuggling crackdown disrupts grey-market China supply?
28%1–3 years
What if China falls into a Japan-style balance-sheet recession?
28%0–6 months
What if a supply glut collapses lithium prices?
28%6–18 months
What if Managed US-China decoupling avoids a hard break?
28%1–3 years
What if Mountain Pass expansion lifts US light-rare-earth output?
28%1–3 years
What if PBOC launches outright Treasury-bond trading as a new QE-style tool?
28%1–3 years
What if Petro-yuan oil invoicing expands in the Gulf?
28%6–18 months
What if allies ban quantum-computing technology exports to China?
28%3–10 years
What if Shrinking global labor force flips disinflation into wage inflation?
28%1–3 years
What if South African iron-ore and coal windfall on China restocking?
28%6–18 months
What if the US imposes a blanket 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and Beijing retaliates in kind?
28%1–3 years
What if US-China chip détente eases ASML/NVDA export curbs?
28%1–3 years
What if US stockpiles and price floors de-risk rare earths?
27%1–3 years
What if Allied 'chip alliance' export bloc fragments global supply?
27%6–18 months
What if Angola China oil-loan margin call drains liquidity?
27%0–6 months
What if China embargoes tungsten and bismuth exports?
27%1–3 years
What if China debt-relief deal eases SSA bilateral burdens?
27%1–3 years
What if China demand slump deepens SSA commodity-revenue squeeze?
27%1–3 years
What if China-India border disengagement reopens trade and flights?
27%6–18 months
What if China insists MDB claims share losses, freezing a restructuring?
27%1–3 years
What if Beijing assumes trillions in local-government debt?
27%3–10 years
What if China pension shortfall forces retirement age up amid unrest risk?
27%1–3 years
What if China property stabilization revives EM risk?
27%0–6 months
What if China curbs rare-earth exports to EU carmakers?
27%1–3 years
What if China reflation and Asia détente spark a regional cyclical rally?
27%3–10 years
What if China's shrinking workforce forces a structurally weaker yuan?
27%1–3 years
What if China stimulus + regional calm spark an Asian copper bid?
27%6–18 months
What if cash-strapped Chinese provinces start delaying civil-servant pay?
27%6–18 months
What if Copper squeezed by China-West minerals split?
27%6–18 months
What if copper smelting fees turn negative?
27%1–3 years
What if China's digital-yuan rollout stalls?
27%0–6 months
What if China fully halts rare-earth magnet exports?
27%6–18 months
What if Metals deflation as China overcapacity floods world markets?
27%0–6 months
What if the PBOC slashes reserve requirements in an emergency easing?
27%0–6 months
What if Secondary sanctions hit China-Russia oil trade?
27%1–3 years
What if US-China codify Taiwan 'no surprises' military protocol?
27%6–18 months
What if a Vanke default cascades through China's property sector?
27%1–3 years
What if Western refining build-out finally breaks the midstream chokepoint?
26%3–10 years
What if Aging Asia exports disinflation, pinning regional real yields low?
26%6–18 months
What if Aluminium glut spills over to cap copper sentiment?
26%1–3 years
What if China consumption pivot offsets property drag and supports growth?
26%1–3 years
What if China equity re-rating as stimulus revives risk appetite?
26%1–3 years
What if China property-led metals slump drags the transition chain?
26%3–10 years
What if China's labor exit removes the global disinflation anchor?
26%1–3 years
What if China softens stance: accepts haircuts, not just maturity extensions?
26%1–3 years
What if China-US chip thaw lets NVDA resume advanced sales to China?
26%1–3 years
What if Critical-mineral price floors stabilize the Western supply chain?
26%1–3 years
What if EV adoption tips into permanent gasoline demand destruction?
26%1–3 years
What if cascading US-China-EU tariff blocs cut global trade volumes by 20%?
26%1–3 years
What if Greenland and Brazil monazite deposits open new REE supply?
26%1–3 years
What if Indonesia nickel ore export ban tightens global class-1 supply?
26%1–3 years
What if LGFV refinancing stress freezes China local-government construction?
26%1–3 years
What if Panda and dim-sum bond issuance opens a renminbi funding channel?
26%3–10 years
What if Saudi Arabia starts pricing oil in yuan?
26%1–3 years
What if Quad critical-minerals pact counters China?
26%1–3 years
What if Solar-panel trade war: tariffs slow Western deployment?
26%6–18 months
What if Strategic grain-reserve releases cap a global price spike?
26%6–18 months
What if Trade-war fragmentation tips global growth lower?
26%6–18 months
What if US-China tariff wall escalates to 60%+ average?
26%0–6 months
What if the US hikes Vietnam's transshipment tariff to 60%?
26%1–3 years
What if Western OEM upstream investment de-risks the battery chain?
25%3–10 years
What if Bangladesh special-economic-zone FDI broadens its export base?
25%0–6 months
What if Bilateral rollover failure tips Pakistan into a BoP crisis?
25%6–18 months
What if China graphite export curb starves Western anode makers?
25%6–18 months
What if China growth disappoints, drags EM and metals?
25%6–18 months
What if China's marriage-rate collapse signals an even deeper birth cliff?
25%0–6 months
What if China steel-export surge triggers global trade backlash?
25%0–6 months
What if China weaponizes rare-earth export licensing?
25%0–6 months
What if Copper demand surprise to the upside on China restocking?
25%1–3 years
What if Lithium price war from Chinese state subsidy buries Western mines?
25%6–18 months
What if PBOC policy paralysis lets a debt-deflation spiral deepen?
25%3–10 years
What if Robotics commoditization compresses automation-hardware margins?
25%1–3 years
What if Stainless-steel demand slump compounds the nickel surplus?
25%1–3 years
What if China's tier-three ghost cities see prices halve?
25%1–3 years
What if US antimony mine restart breaks the import dependence?
25%3–10 years
What if US-China stable coexistence framework caps Asia tail-risk?
25%0–6 months
What if US revokes China's permanent normal trade status?
24%1–3 years
What if ASEAN-China sign a binding South China Sea Code of Conduct?
24%1–3 years
What if BRICS+ expansion and BRICS Pay scale settlement?
24%6–18 months
What if China copper-scrap flood undercuts refined-cathode demand?
24%6–18 months
What if China developer-default cascade reignites and saps commodity demand?
24%1–3 years
What if China EV price war drags global automaker profitability lower?
24%6–18 months
What if China gallium and germanium block hits chip and optics supply?
24%6–18 months
What if China heavy-REE export licensing chokes Dy and Tb supply?
24%6–18 months
What if China NdFeB magnet export ban halts EV-motor production lines?
24%1–3 years
What if China policy-bank debt-for-nature swap unlocks frontier relief?
24%1–3 years
What if China property-stress disinflation eases DM goods inflation?
24%6–18 months
What if China rare-earth/gallium counter-embargo hits chip inputs?
24%1–3 years
What if China slowdown crushes Brazil iron-ore export revenue?
24%1–3 years
What if China stimulus blitz lifts Asia cyclicals as geopolitics cool?
24%6–18 months
What if China urea export ban removes the world's swing supplier?
24%0–6 months
What if CNH slides past 7.6 on tariff escalation?
24%6–18 months
What if Copper and iron-ore relief rally on China stimulus and restocking?
24%6–18 months
What if Copper relief rally on Chinese property-rescue package?
24%6–18 months
What if GPU export-control workaround chips revive China-facing revenue?
24%6–18 months
What if Graphite anode supply curb forces battery-grade rationing?
24%1–3 years
What if Greenland rare-earth mine breaks China's grip?
24%6–18 months
What if chipmaking export controls widen to mature-node tools?
24%6–18 months
What if Mexico tariff threat pressures peso and supply chains?
24%6–18 months
What if China's property bust crushes steel demand and floods global markets?
24%6–18 months
What if Rare-earth magnet chokepoint halts F-35 and missile production lines?
24%0–6 months
What if China's stimulus bazooka disappoints and reverses reflation trades?
24%3–10 years
What if Thorium MSR demonstration reshapes the nuclear fuel outlook?
24%6–18 months
What if Trump-Xi 'grand bargain' trades tariffs for Taiwan restraint?
24%1–3 years
What if US-China resume working-level military talks, cutting accident risk?
24%6–18 months
What if US chip export-control escalation shuts a ~$50B China AI market?
24%1–3 years
What if Uzbek green-energy buildout draws Gulf and Chinese capital?
24%1–3 years
What if Yuan-gold linkage deepens as Shanghai gold pricing power grows?
23%6–18 months
What if African Swine Fever resurgence guts Chinese feed-grain demand?
23%1–3 years
What if China builds a generation lead in cheap power and storage?
23%1–3 years
What if China export-flood sparks Western tariff wall?
23%3–10 years
What if China's e-CNY scales cross-border, chipping at dollar invoicing?
23%6–18 months
What if China tungsten export controls squeeze cutting-tool and munitions?
23%1–3 years
What if Critical-minerals club sets allied price floors?
23%6–18 months
What if Washington bars allied HBM sales to Chinese-linked AI clusters?
23%1–3 years
What if Philippines nickel-ore export ban pivots to value-added boom?
23%3–10 years
What if Taiwan-China economic interdependence deepens, lowering war odds?
23%0–6 months
What if US approves $5B Taiwan arms package; Beijing sanctions primes?
23%6–18 months
What if Western gigafactory delays slow non-China battery localization?
23%6–18 months
What if the yuan breaks 7.5 per dollar and triggers a capital-outflow spiral?
22%1–3 years
What if Beijing-Taipei resume semi-official SEF-ARATS talks?
22%1–3 years
What if China deflation export: factory-gate price falls suppress global CPI?
22%6–18 months
What if China demand shock collapses copper and the Chilean peso?
22%3–10 years
What if China demographic-and-property drag entrenches structural low growth?
22%6–18 months
What if China dumps mature-node chips, crushing legacy-fab margins?
22%1–3 years
What if China-Japan détente restores the maritime crisis hotline?
22%1–3 years
What if China land-revenue collapse forces austerity and growth downgrade?
22%3–10 years
What if China local-government pension transfers deepen the LGFV debt strain?
22%0–6 months
What if China rare-earth snapback hits defense supply?
22%1–3 years
What if China stimulus-led copper squeeze re-rates global mining equities?
22%3–10 years
What if China-Taiwan peace treaty framework removes the war-risk tail?
22%1–3 years
What if Chinese refined-product export quota surge gluts Asian cracks?
22%3–10 years
What if CNH convertibility leap boosts yuan reserve role?
22%1–3 years
What if Equipment-maker China revenue cliff as controls bite?
22%6–18 months
What if EU Critical Raw Materials Act forces supplier diversification?
22%1–3 years
What if Grand-bargain US-China detente caps the defense-spending trajectory?
22%1–3 years
What if Hungary's Chinese battery cluster scales into exports?
22%1–3 years
What if Indonesia coal price crash hits export and fiscal revenue?
22%6–18 months
What if Industrial-metals glut as post-stimulus China demand fades?
22%0–6 months
What if Iran export crackdown pulls 1 mb/d of barrels off the water?
22%6–18 months
What if a Chinese construction collapse sends iron ore below $70 per tonne?
22%1–3 years
What if Manila-Beijing 'gentlemen's agreement' calms the SCS for a year?
22%6–18 months
What if PBOC engineers a managed yuan devaluation to export disinflation?
22%1–3 years
What if PBOC tightens prematurely and aborts a nascent recovery?
22%3–10 years
What if Sustained Asia-Pacific peace rerates the regional equity risk premium?
22%1–3 years
What if Taiwan-China military hotline established, cutting clash risk?
22%1–3 years
What if US-China decouple chip supply chains, raising structural costs?
22%1–3 years
What if US-China hotline use defuses an Asian near-miss crisis?
22%0–6 months
What if the PBOC lets the yuan break past 7.60?
21%1–3 years
What if ASEAN-China joint patrols ease South China Sea tanker war-risk?
21%1–3 years
What if ASEAN-China RCEP integration deepens regional supply chains?
21%1–3 years
What if China's commercial-property downturn broadens beyond residential?
21%1–3 years
What if China power-demand surge lifts coal, gas and grid build at once?
21%3–10 years
What if China's thin pension safety net forces high precautionary saving?
21%3–10 years
What if China-Vietnam agree a joint development zone in disputed seas?
21%1–3 years
What if Chinese-import flood deindustrializes Thai manufacturing base?
21%1–3 years
What if Comprehensive US-China deal eases tariffs and Taiwan tension?
21%1–3 years
What if a friend-shoring scramble triggers a costly duplicative capex wave that raises goods costs structurally?
21%6–18 months
What if Global industrial recession sinks the whole base-metals complex?
21%1–3 years
What if Hungary's Eastern-Opening FDI pivot disappoints?
21%6–18 months
What if Madagascar and Mozambique graphite disruption tightens flake?
21%1–3 years
What if Pakistan taps a Panda bond, diversifying funding to RMB?
21%1–3 years
What if Saudi Arabia starts pricing its oil off the dollar?
21%6–18 months
What if a nationwide mortgage boycott resurges over unfinished homes in China?
21%6–18 months
What if a US-China tariff exchange escalates past 100% in successive rounds?
20%6–18 months
What if a China hard landing tips Australia into recession?
20%6–18 months
What if Australian iron-ore receipts swing with the China property impulse?
20%6–18 months
What if Battery-metal demand shock from a China stimulus surprise?
20%1–3 years
What if Brazil-China currency-swap deepens de-dollarized trade?
20%6–18 months
What if Chile-China lithium-tech venture deepens processing ties?
20%6–18 months
What if China bans rare-earth processing technology exports?
20%6–18 months
What if a China hard landing collapses copper demand and sends LME prices down 30%?
20%6–18 months
What if China's oil demand collapses into deep surplus?
20%1–3 years
What if China engineers a 5nm-class breakthrough despite sanctions?
20%6–18 months
What if China graphite-and-magnet retaliation answers US chip curbs?
20%1–3 years
What if China-India BRICS-anchored détente deepens economic ties?
20%1–3 years
What if China-Philippines reach a Second Thomas resupply modus vivendi?
20%6–18 months
What if China property-debt deflation drags down regional risk assets?
20%6–18 months
What if China halted its rare-earth and gallium exports?
20%1–3 years
What if China stimulus disappoints: half-measures fail to halt property bust?
20%1–3 years
What if China cracked sub-5nm chips on its own?
20%6–18 months
What if Chinese lithium futures clampdown jolts the price benchmark?
20%6–18 months
What if a Chinese demand slump plunges copper prices?
20%6–18 months
What if G7 critical-minerals buyers' club counters Chinese pricing?
20%0–6 months
What if Iron ore and copper diverge as China stimulates property not industry?
20%1–3 years
What if Kazakhstan attracts Western critical-minerals capital?
20%0–6 months
What if Myanmar's rare-earth mines collapse in the civil war?
20%1–3 years
What if an overvalued housing market collapses in Canada or Australia?
20%6–18 months
What if PBOC stealth tightening via fixing blunts the global reflation trade?
20%6–18 months
What if Washington sharply tightens controls on advanced AI chips to China and closes third-country loopholes?
20%6–18 months
What if Trump freezes Taiwan arms sale as a Xi bargaining chip?
20%0–6 months
What if China's trust giants freeze $200bn of redemptions?
20%6–18 months
What if US bans all advanced-AI chip sales to China?
20%6–18 months
What if US foreign-entity sourcing rules lock Chinese metals out of credits?
20%1–3 years
What if US-Greenland minerals-security deal locks in supply?
20%6–18 months
What if US tariffs on Chinese graphite reprice the anode supply chain?
19%1–3 years
What if Angola oil-collateralized China loans force a quiet rescheduling?
19%6–18 months
What if API tariffs expose US generic-drug shortage fragility?
19%6–18 months
What if capital flight overwhelms China's controls and drains FX reserves?
19%6–18 months
What if China bans key EV-battery tech exports?
19%6–18 months
What if China brokers a Ukraine ceasefire framework?
19%0–6 months
What if China-growth disappointment drags commodity-EM currencies lower?
19%6–18 months
What if China hard-landing crushes LatAm commodity exporters?
19%1–3 years
What if China's economy hard-lands at around 3% growth?
19%1–3 years
What if China-Japan-Korea summit revives full economic cooperation?
19%6–18 months
What if China lithium-conversion tech curb slows Western refiners?
19%6–18 months
What if China rare-earth quota hike floods the magnet-metal market?
19%6–18 months
What if China rhardens dual-use end-user rules on critical metals?
19%1–3 years
What if a deeper China slowdown slashes Japanese machinery and capital-goods exports?
19%6–18 months
What if Chip-equipment export ban widens to allies?
19%6–18 months
What if tightened US chip export controls choke China's AI and tech ambitions?
19%0–6 months
What if a China stimulus letdown unwinds the commodity-reflation trade?
19%0–6 months
What if container freight rates spike fivefold?
19%6–18 months
What if DRC-China cobalt offtake renegotiation rattles supply terms?
19%1–3 years
What if a China hard landing inflicts terms-of-trade shocks on EM commodity exporters?
19%6–18 months
What if FPI 'sell India, buy China' rotation pressures NIFTY?
19%0–6 months
What if Guinea bans bauxite exports after a coup?
19%1–3 years
What if China's infrastructure cutbacks crush copper, steel and cement demand?
19%6–18 months
What if Chinese steel output contracts and sends iron ore from $120 toward $70 per tonne?
19%6–18 months
What if luxury spending collapses in China and the US?
19%6–18 months
What if Luxury-demand downturn de-rates the high end as the K rolls over?
19%6–18 months
What if Chinese dams trigger a Mekong drought downstream?
19%6–18 months
What if Pakistan rolls maturity wall only via emergency bilateral deposits?
19%6–18 months
What if PBOC credibility erodes as half-measures fail to stop deflation?
19%6–18 months
What if PBOC defends the yuan with offshore liquidity squeeze and bill sales?
19%6–18 months
What if PBOC shifts to a stronger yuan-fixing regime to curb outflows?
19%6–18 months
What if Beijing bans rare-earth exports and chokes defense, EV and wind-turbine supply chains?
19%1–3 years
What if regulators force sweeping consolidation of China's small lenders?
19%6–18 months
What if universal US tariffs pass through to consumer prices and force the Fed to hold rates higher?
19%1–3 years
What if Thailand competitiveness erosion as China+1 bypasses it?
19%1–3 years
What if US-China military hotline cuts miscalc risk?
19%1–3 years
What if Vanke defaults and shatters China's state-backstop assumption?
19%1–3 years
What if Vietnam US-tech-FDI chill as tariff/transshipment fight drags?
19%6–18 months
What if West tightens tech-export controls on China bloc?
18%6–18 months
What if the US imposes tariffs above 100% on broad categories of Chinese goods?
18%6–18 months
What if the US pressures allies to align tariffs against China?
18%6–18 months
What if China's EV price war collapses auto manufacturer margins across the sector?
18%6–18 months
What if BIOSECURE-style China decoupling disrupts CDMO supply chains?
18%6–18 months
What if China bismuth and indium curbs hit solders and displays?
18%1–3 years
What if China dumps US Treasuries as a sanctions weapon?
18%6–18 months
What if China housing-led deflation exports disinflation to global goods?
18%3–10 years
What if China policy pivot to families and productivity steadies growth (good)?
18%6–18 months
What if China property-equity rout drags HSI and global cyclicals?
18%0–6 months
What if China retaliates with broad US-goods tariffs?
18%1–3 years
What if a Chinese infrastructure stimulus drives copper and iron ore sharply higher?
18%1–3 years
What if China-Taiwan economic blockade tail re-prices semis?
18%0–6 months
What if China zeroes US soybean imports in retaliation?
18%1–3 years
What if collapsing Chinese demand and EV competition hammer German industry?
18%1–3 years
What if Chinese home prices fall 30% from their 2021 peak?
18%6–18 months
What if Myanmar rare-earth supply cutoff jolts heavy-REE feed?
18%1–3 years
What if Paris Club relevance fades as China and Gulf creditors dominate?
18%0–6 months
What if the PBOC devalues the yuan past 7.5 to the dollar?
18%6–18 months
What if PBOC widens the yuan trading band toward a freer float?
18%6–18 months
What if Rare-earth oxide stockpile dump by China resets prices lower?
18%0–6 months
What if Rare-earth scare drives MP/Lynas spike?
18%6–18 months
What if the US and EU escalate secondary sanctions on banks handling Russian trade?
18%6–18 months
What if Solar-module price war crushes manufacturer margins?
18%1–3 years
What if Tech-bloc bifurcation hard-codes two standards?
18%0–6 months
What if Thai baht slump as tourism arrivals miss on China pullback?
18%6–18 months
What if US-China financial decoupling delists Chinese ADRs?
18%0–6 months
What if a once-in-a-century flood inundates the Yangtze basin?
18%1–3 years
What if a yuan devaluation exports Chinese deflation to the rest of the world?
17%6–18 months
What if China adds gallium-germanium-graphite export bans?
17%6–18 months
What if China Coast Guard 'customs quarantine' of Taiwan's Kinmen?
17%6–18 months
What if a Chinese tech giant spirals into a debt crisis?
17%1–3 years
What if China-Japan-Korea trilateral FTA talks restart amid détente?
17%6–18 months
What if stalled presold Chinese apartments trigger mortgage boycotts and a confidence collapse?
17%6–18 months
What if a second Evergrande spreads China's property crisis worldwide?
17%6–18 months
What if China bans rare-earth exports to retaliate against tech restrictions?
17%6–18 months
What if China retaliatory tech curbs squeeze ASML/Applied in Asia?
17%1–3 years
What if EV adoption erodes structural gasoline demand, narrows cracks?
17%6–18 months
What if Full US-China tech decoupling fractures supply chains?
17%1–3 years
What if iron ore falls toward $50 per tonne in a deep China hard landing?
17%6–18 months
What if a China downturn slashes Korean semiconductor and machinery exports?
17%0–6 months
What if China's mortgage boycott flares up again?
17%6–18 months
What if Chinese buyers strike over undelivered pre-sold homes?
17%6–18 months
What if Beijing's property rescue fund proves far too small to restart projects?
17%6–18 months
What if PBoC easing widens the China-US rate gap and accelerates yuan outflows?
17%1–3 years
What if Six-Party-style talks restart over North Korea's arsenal?
17%1–3 years
What if SMIC reaches TSMC-class 5nm economics without EUV?
17%1–3 years
What if South China Sea clash jolts global shipping?
17%3–10 years
What if US-China cold-war détente stabilizes the system?
17%0–6 months
What if Vanke defaults outright and Beijing's backstop disappears?
16%1–3 years
What if US-China decoupling accelerates sharply and fragments global supply chains?
16%6–18 months
What if AUKUS Pillar-2 expands; China decries a regional arms race?
16%0–6 months
What if Beijing unleashes a 10 trillion yuan fiscal bazooka?
16%6–18 months
What if China sharply tightens capital controls to stem outflows?
16%6–18 months
What if China cuts off antimony and tungsten to the West?
16%0–6 months
What if China slides back into outright deflation?
16%3–10 years
What if China demographic decline weighs on long-run growth path?
16%1–3 years
What if multinationals accelerate China exits and FDI into China turns net-negative?
16%1–3 years
What if China-Japan Senkaku standoff after a CCG incursion surge?
16%6–18 months
What if a China property-completion push sharply lifts copper, steel and aluminium demand?
16%1–3 years
What if China prosecutes offshore issuers of yuan-linked stablecoins?
16%6–18 months
What if China summer power crunch forces industrial curtailment?
16%0–6 months
What if Beijing front-runs a US tariff hike with an immediate across-the-board retaliation?
16%1–3 years
What if offshore creditors of Chinese developers face near-zero recoveries?
16%1–3 years
What if Digital-yuan cross-border rails gain trade share?
16%6–18 months
What if Germany's industrial production falls more than 8% as energy costs and China demand weaken?
16%1–3 years
What if a China hard landing exports a powerful deflationary shock worldwide?
16%6–18 months
What if Beijing extends export licensing to battery-grade graphite and antimony, squeezing EV and defense makers?
16%6–18 months
What if Germany forces COSCO out of Hamburg's port?
16%6–18 months
What if Hong Kong banks book heavy losses on mainland China exposures?
16%6–18 months
What if JKM spikes as Asian utilities outbid Europe for winter LNG?
16%1–3 years
What if Myanmar's junta collapses and the country fragments?
16%1–3 years
What if Pacific naval incident triggers risk-off spasm?
16%0–6 months
What if the US hits major Chinese banks with secondary sanctions?
16%6–18 months
What if South China Sea oil-route fear lifts Brent and Asian fuel cracks?
16%6–18 months
What if record Chinese steel exports flood world markets and crush margins?
16%1–3 years
What if trade reorganizes along geopolitical lines into US-aligned and China-aligned blocs?
16%6–18 months
What if defending the yuan forces China to tighten onshore rates during a property crisis?
15%6–18 months
What if the Netherlands halts EUV servicing and new DUV lithography sales to China?
15%1–3 years
What if Beijing retaliates against chip equipment controls by curbing mature-node chip exports?
15%0–6 months
What if China cuts off all rare-earth magnet exports in a trade rupture?
15%6–18 months
What if weak Chinese demand caps and then drags global crude oil prices?
15%1–3 years
What if China quarantine of Taiwan halts chip flow?
15%6–18 months
What if China escalates rare-earth export controls and chokes magnet supply?
15%1–3 years
What if the US bans outbound investment in Chinese AI and semiconductors?
15%0–6 months
What if Copper jumps as Chinese smelters announce coordinated output cuts?
15%1–3 years
What if Chinese export curbs on rare earths and battery metals drive a multi-fold price spike?
15%6–18 months
What if a China demand slump unleashes export dumping of steel, solar and EVs and triggers global tariff retaliation?
15%1–3 years
What if China's FX reserves drop below the $2.5 trillion adequacy threshold?
15%1–3 years
What if Indonesia resource-nationalism scares off Western EV capital?
15%6–18 months
What if a sharp China slowdown collapses Korean intermediate-goods and petrochemical exports?
15%1–3 years
What if North Korea joins a China-Russia bloc in a formal trilateral pact?
15%1–3 years
What if a major Chinese province becomes effectively insolvent?
15%6–18 months
What if a broad Section 301 action layers new tariffs on Chinese shipbuilding and chips?
15%0–6 months
What if the US snaps a 25% tariff on broad Chinese goods overnight?
15%6–18 months
What if the US and EU impose steep tariffs on Chinese solar modules, batteries and EVs?
15%1–3 years
What if China sinks a Philippine ship in the South China Sea?
15%1–3 years
What if the US and EU race to stockpile critical minerals but multi-year lead times leave supply chains exposed?
14%1–3 years
What if China targets US soybeans, corn and pork with retaliatory tariffs and collapses US farm exports?
14%1–3 years
What if China's overcapacity floods global aluminium and nickel markets?
14%6–18 months
What if weak Chinese construction and restarted smelters flood the aluminium market below $2,000 per tonne?
14%0–6 months
What if collapsing oil revenue breaches Angola's China loan covenants?
14%1–3 years
What if a sharp yuan devaluation drags Asian currencies and equities lower?
14%1–3 years
What if a China slowdown triggers distress among Belt-and-Road borrowers?
14%1–3 years
What if a China-driven iron ore slump cuts Brazil's export receipts and pressures the BRL?
14%1–3 years
What if office vacancy spikes in China's top cities as oversupply meets weak demand?
14%1–3 years
What if cascading Chinese developer defaults freeze land sales and property lending?
14%0–6 months
What if China dumping floods Vietnam with goods, widens trade deficit?
14%1–3 years
What if China's industrial overcapacity triggers a global wave of protective tariffs?
14%1–3 years
What if Chinese GDP growth collapses toward 2%?
14%6–18 months
What if a China hard landing collapses oil demand and sends Brent toward $50?
14%1–3 years
What if weak Chinese activity caps LNG import growth and loosens the global gas market?
14%6–18 months
What if China retaliates against US tariffs with regulatory probes and selective import bans rather than matching duties?
14%6–18 months
What if China-Russia Arctic axis deepens?
14%6–18 months
What if a global recession collapses the copper price?
14%6–18 months
What if capital flight via crypto rails undermines China's currency controls?
14%1–3 years
What if mounting small-bank failures exhaust China's deposit-insurance fund?
14%6–18 months
What if foreign investors flee Chinese equities and bonds in a record exodus?
14%6–18 months
What if Iran-Saudi détente holds and deepens?
14%6–18 months
What if a China steel-demand collapse triggers earnings shocks at BHP, Rio and Vale?
14%1–3 years
What if China and Japan are simultaneously stuck in balance-sheet recessions?
14%0–6 months
What if Kenya misses a maturing dollar Eurobond?
14%1–3 years
What if Laos opaque China debt forces hidden-loan restructuring disclosure?
14%6–18 months
What if China's manufacturing PMI stays entrenched in contraction?
14%6–18 months
What if threatened US tariffs on Mexico over Chinese transshipment disrupt nearshoring bets and the peso?
14%6–18 months
What if Mild Asian winter leaves JKM cargoes stranded, prices sink?
14%1–3 years
What if tariffs on pharmaceuticals and active ingredients expose US dependence on China and India API supply?
14%0–6 months
What if bank runs cascade across China's rural lenders?
14%1–3 years
What if Secondary-sanctions wave on Russia oil buyers?
14%6–18 months
What if a new outbreak locks down Shanghai's ports?
14%1–3 years
What if competing industrial subsidies escalate into a global subsidy war?
14%3–10 years
What if US- and China-led technology stacks harden into incompatible blocs?
14%6–18 months
What if an expanded CFIUS-style regime blocks Chinese investment across tech, biotech and infrastructure?
13%6–18 months
What if a China hard landing transmits simultaneously across Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and ASEAN?
13%6–18 months
What if Asian high-yield spreads blow out on China property contagion?
13%6–18 months
What if China declares a Taiwan Strait ADIZ over the median line?
13%6–18 months
What if China deepens military-industrial backing of Russia?
13%1–3 years
What if China and Japan restrict photoresists and neon gas essential to chip lithography?
13%1–3 years
What if DRC disruption and Chinese stockpiling weaponize the cobalt market?
13%1–3 years
What if Washington weaponises dollar clearing against a Gulf state?
13%6–18 months
What if full EU carbon border adjustment plus retaliation from China and India fragments carbon-intensive trade?
13%1–3 years
What if the EU adopts a harder inbound and outbound screening regime toward China?
13%1–3 years
What if the EU and US erect steep tariff walls against Chinese EVs and solar panels?
13%0–6 months
What if a PLA coast-guard ship sinks a Japanese patrol boat near the Senkakus?
13%6–18 months
What if a strong dollar and weak China demand drive the ringgit to multi-decade lows?
13%6–18 months
What if the US bars American capital and talent from advanced Chinese semiconductor and AI ventures?
13%6–18 months
What if Pakistan defaults on its sovereign debt?
13%6–18 months
What if security-driven pharma reshoring creates drug shortages and higher costs?
13%3–10 years
What if sanctions weaponization splits global payments into rival Western and China-led blocs?
13%1–3 years
What if China's bank-recap needs force de facto PBoC monetization of sovereign bonds?
13%1–3 years
What if accelerated friend-shoring disrupts global manufacturing supply chains?
13%6–18 months
What if the US and EU crack down on Chinese goods rerouted via Vietnam and Mexico?
13%1–3 years
What if China restricts tungsten and specialty-metal exports used in tooling and electronics?
13%1–3 years
What if successive escalation drives bilateral US-China goods trade toward near-zero?
13%6–18 months
What if Washington broadens outbound-investment bans to biotech and clean tech beyond chips and AI?
13%6–18 months
What if tit-for-tat duties on wine, spirits and luxury goods escalate an EU-US or EU-China trade dispute?
13%1–3 years
What if a yuan devaluation ignites competitive currency responses across Asia?
12%1–3 years
What if aquifer depletion and river drought constrain irrigated agriculture and lower yields?
12%1–3 years
What if AI automation hollows ASEAN low-end manufacturing jobs?
12%0–6 months
What if Asian central banks intervene jointly in currencies?
12%6–18 months
What if China repeats its 2020 trade coercion against another economy's exports?
12%6–18 months
What if a China growth scare triggers a broad base-metals selloff in copper and aluminium?
12%6–18 months
What if Chinese government bond yields collapse below 2% as deflation takes hold?
12%6–18 months
What if a China demand shock pushes copper below $6,500 and hits Chile's finances?
12%6–18 months
What if stress in China's bond market freezes primary issuance for weaker borrowers?
12%0–6 months
What if hidden outflows drain $150bn from China's reserves in a quarter?
12%1–3 years
What if China caps its dollar reserves?
12%1–3 years
What if China's subsidised AI-chip push floods mature-node markets with overcapacity?
12%1–3 years
What if a Chinese financial crisis triggers a global flight to safety?
12%3–10 years
What if China's shrinking population leaves a structural housing glut in lower-tier cities?
12%1–3 years
What if Chinese property developers keep defaulting on dollar bonds?
12%3–10 years
What if Chinese EV exports strand Western ICE producers and trigger tariff retaliation?
12%1–3 years
What if catastrophic flooding across China's major river basins damages banks?
12%1–3 years
What if China hard-landing drags commodity-linked ASEAN exporters?
12%1–3 years
What if China-India LAC clash reignites in eastern Ladakh?
12%3–10 years
What if China enters a Japan-style lost decade of sub-3% growth and deflation?
12%6–18 months
What if weak margins prompt Chinese refiners to slash crude runs and import quotas?
12%1–3 years
What if a Chinese slowdown slashes soybean and grain imports?
12%1–3 years
What if a renewed crackdown forces China's tech platforms to deleverage and cut jobs?
12%0–6 months
What if the US sanctions Chinese banks over Iran's oil?
12%1–3 years
What if Chinese cyberattack dark-starts Taiwan's power grid?
12%1–3 years
What if a China industrial slowdown slashes thermal-coal imports and pressures exporters?
12%1–3 years
What if a China hard landing routs AUD, BRL and other commodity-linked currencies?
12%1–3 years
What if export controls on chip-design software and AI models escalate?
12%1–3 years
What if forced decoupling strands China-exposed plants and IP for Western firms?
12%6–18 months
What if simultaneous copper, iron ore and coal price falls compress diversified miner margins?
12%1–3 years
What if a protracted China downturn forces sweeping growth downgrades across EM Asia?
12%6–18 months
What if a sweeping US Entity List expansion cuts off Chinese tech firms?
12%1–3 years
What if European auto OEMs and suppliers face a fallen-angel downgrade wave?
12%1–3 years
What if Western tech export controls and Chinese mineral counter-controls escalate into a mutual export-control spiral?
12%1–3 years
What if a full Western embargo on frontier AI accelerators bifurcates the global compute stack?
12%6–18 months
What if the EV transition, Chinese competition and tariffs cut German vehicle output sharply?
12%1–3 years
What if Chinese households and the PBoC pivot hard into gold as a store of value?
12%6–18 months
What if China tightens graphite export licenses and starves non-Chinese gigafactories?
12%6–18 months
What if Hong Kong IPO volumes and asset-management inflows collapse on China uncertainty?
12%6–18 months
What if rising China property defaults surge through Hong Kong banks' mainland exposure?
12%6–18 months
What if a China demand slump crashes thermal-coal prices and hits Indonesia's largest export?
12%6–18 months
What if Jet-fuel demand recovery in China tightens Asian middle distillates?
12%6–18 months
What if the US tariffs Chinese electronics routed through Mexico?
12%0–6 months
What if the PLA fires on a Philippine resupply mission at Mischief Reef?
12%1–3 years
What if China restricts outbound tourism and study to coerce target economies?
12%6–18 months
What if markets stop trusting the PBoC's daily yuan-fixing as a depreciation anchor?
12%6–18 months
What if Chinese and Hong Kong developer equities are effectively wiped out in restructurings?
12%6–18 months
What if foreign investors dump Chinese government bonds on yuan-depreciation fears?
12%0–6 months
What if Scarborough Shoal 'nature reserve' enforced as a China blockade?
12%1–3 years
What if restrictions on Chinese-made cranes and port logistics tech force costly replacement across Western ports?
12%1–3 years
What if South China Sea flare-up spikes Philippine risk premium?
12%6–18 months
What if foreign outflows via Stock Connect spiral as China-stability fears mount?
12%6–18 months
What if Taiwan Strait quarantine spikes the chip risk premium?
12%6–18 months
What if China declares an inspection zone in the Taiwan Strait?
12%1–3 years
What if escalating US-China tech restrictions disrupt global electronics supply chains both ways?
12%0–6 months
What if Trade-war détente sparks SOX/SMH melt-up?
12%0–6 months
What if US-China Busan truce extended past Nov 2026?
12%1–3 years
What if Yangtze megadrought idles China hydropower & shipping?
12%1–3 years
What if the yuan breaks 8.0 per dollar in a disorderly slide?
12%6–18 months
What if a China slowdown tips zinc and lead into a global glut?
11%1–3 years
What if low oil pushes heavily China-indebted Angola back toward debt distress?
11%3–10 years
What if over-extracted aquifers deplete, cutting irrigated-crop output in major farming regions?
11%1–3 years
What if ASEAN tourism reliance backfires as China outbound stalls?
11%6–18 months
What if a broad dollar funding squeeze hits Asia-ex-China banks simultaneously?
11%6–18 months
What if an intensified US-China tariff war tips export-dependent Asian economies into recession?
11%1–3 years
What if China's banking system needs a sovereign-funded recapitalization?
11%1–3 years
What if China oversupply and energy costs tip chemicals credit into a downturn?
11%1–3 years
What if a major chemicals issuer drifts toward junk amid energy costs and China competition?
11%3–10 years
What if China builds a parallel demand bloc across the Global South?
11%3–10 years
What if China abruptly expands its ETS into steel, cement and aluminium?
11%1–3 years
What if rapid EV and LNG-truck adoption structurally caps Chinese gasoline and diesel demand?
11%1–3 years
What if a China financial crisis reverses outbound investment into Vietnam and ASEAN?
11%6–18 months
What if China releases strategic base-metal reserves to cap domestic prices during a squeeze?
11%6–18 months
What if Washington threatens secondary sanctions on Chinese banks aiding Russia's war economy?
11%1–3 years
What if China seizes Taiwan's Pratas (Dongsha) atoll?
11%1–3 years
What if China's shift away from blast-furnace steel collapses coking-coal demand?
11%1–3 years
What if China expands critical-mineral export controls in retaliation for tech restrictions?
11%1–3 years
What if Western export controls and Chinese countermeasures bifurcate critical-minerals markets?
11%6–18 months
What if the DAX slumps on high energy costs, weak Chinese demand and margin compression?
11%1–3 years
What if controls on drones and dual-use sensors, met by Chinese counter-controls, disrupt defense supply chains?
11%6–18 months
What if drought forces curtailment of thermal and nuclear power plants?
11%1–3 years
What if escalating EV-tariff disputes spiral into a broad EU-China trade conflict?
11%6–18 months
What if Germany's export model stalls on weak Chinese demand, US tariffs and high energy costs?
11%6–18 months
What if China's property downturn transmits directly into Hong Kong bank loan books through developer exposure?
11%6–18 months
What if a demand air-pocket in Korean EV batteries and shipbuilding sours supply-chain credit?
11%6–18 months
What if iron ore and coking coal collapse together on a China steel contraction?
11%1–3 years
What if China extends phosphate fertilizer export restrictions and tightens global supply?
11%1–3 years
What if allied governments purge Chinese-linked port and logistics software?
11%6–18 months
What if Chinese rebar prices fall below cash cost and export steel deflation globally?
11%3–10 years
What if China's debt deleveraging permanently lowers its commodity and import intensity?
11%1–3 years
What if mandated removal of Chinese 5G equipment fragments the global telecom stack?
11%1–3 years
What if capital flight pushes China toward a balance-of-payments deficit?
11%1–3 years
What if Beijing's Unreliable-Entity List penalises Western multinationals?
11%1–3 years
What if a broad US-China rupture spanning trade, tech, finance and Taiwan hits simultaneously?
10%1–3 years
What if African swine fever resurges and culls China's hog herd at 2018 scale?
10%6–18 months
What if a power-price spike forces European and Chinese aluminium smelters to curtail output?
10%1–3 years
What if China export controls on antimony and tungsten choke Western munitions supply chains?
10%1–3 years
What if ASEAN FDI diverted to India undercuts China+1 thesis?
10%1–3 years
What if China weakness spreads high-yield contagion across Southeast Asia?
10%1–3 years
What if Beijing imposes a naval 'inspection zone' on Taiwan shipping?
10%1–3 years
What if sustained capital flight drains China's reserves toward critical levels?
10%6–18 months
What if a collapse in copper prices undercuts Chile's exports and widens the fiscal gap?
10%0–6 months
What if China bans exports of all rare-earth magnets?
10%6–18 months
What if China builds artificial structures on Scarborough Shoal?
10%3–10 years
What if EU CBAM and copycat schemes hit China's carbon-intensive industrial exports?
10%1–3 years
What if Chinese residential prices fall 35% as the property downturn deepens?
10%1–3 years
What if collapsing Chinese land-sale revenue pushes local-government financing vehicles toward distress?
10%0–6 months
What if a new wave of Chinese mortgage boycotts on stalled projects pressures banks?
10%6–18 months
What if China restricts rare-earth and gallium exports critical to chip manufacturing?
10%6–18 months
What if a large China stimulus spikes copper, iron ore and aluminium simultaneously?
10%6–18 months
What if China stimulus under-delivers and removes the oil demand rebound premium?
10%1–3 years
What if China's property, LGFV and shadow-bank stresses combine into a systemic crisis?
10%1–3 years
What if China-Vietnam clash at Vanguard Bank over oil drilling?
10%0–6 months
What if a Chinese province openly defaults despite Beijing?
10%6–18 months
What if stress in the offshore yuan market transmits mainland strains to Hong Kong?
10%1–3 years
What if a sharp China slowdown collapses commodity demand and hits EM exporters across three regions?
10%6–18 months
What if energy costs and Chinese competition force a sharp de-rating of European autos and industrials?
10%1–3 years
What if restrictions on nitrogen and potash exports spike fertilizer prices and trigger a global food-inflation shock?
10%6–18 months
What if the US banned all advanced AI chips from China?
10%1–3 years
What if HSBC and Standard Chartered book heavy provisions on China and Hong Kong loans?
10%6–18 months
What if China-stability fears and capital flight drive the Hang Seng into a deep bear market?
10%6–18 months
What if a US-China trade war collapses Hong Kong's re-export and logistics volumes?
10%1–3 years
What if Chinese life insurers face a negative-spread crisis as investment yields fall below guarantees?
10%1–3 years
What if IP and patent regimes decouple across the US-China divide?
10%6–18 months
What if iron ore swings violently as China toggles between property weakness and stimulus restocking?
10%6–18 months
What if a China-stimulus restock and low port inventories trigger an iron-ore short squeeze?
10%1–3 years
What if China and India fight a full mountain war in Ladakh?
10%1–3 years
What if Chinese local-government financing vehicles crystallize commercial-property losses?
10%1–3 years
What if China's dominance of lithium refining becomes a chokepoint for non-Chinese battery makers?
10%1–3 years
What if China curbs magnesium and metallurgical silicon supply and starves global auto supply chains?
10%1–3 years
What if China abandons its managed float and lets the yuan fall freely?
10%1–3 years
What if a China-led commodity slump tips leveraged metals and mining into default?
10%3–10 years
What if China's debt overhang and demographics entrench a middle-income trap?
10%6–18 months
What if the PBoC engineers an offshore-yuan liquidity squeeze to punish yuan shorts?
10%0–6 months
What if China reveals it has tripled its gold reserves?
10%1–3 years
What if the PBoC pivots to QE-style bond buying to fight deflation and fund bank recaps?
10%1–3 years
What if falling asset returns blow a hole in Chinese insurers' and pension funds' balance sheets?
10%1–3 years
What if phosphate-rock concentration and depletion raise long-run fertilizer costs?
10%0–6 months
What if a Chinese polysilicon blast doubles solar module prices?
10%1–3 years
What if China's near-total control of rare-earth processing leaves Western magnet supply hostage?
10%1–3 years
What if major Chinese or Gulf banks are cut from US dollar clearing for sanctions breaches?
10%1–3 years
What if China starts building an island at Scarborough Shoal?
10%1–3 years
What if a China hard landing transmits through Singapore's entrepot trade and wealth-management hub?
10%6–18 months
What if a US-China trade rupture disrupts soybean flows and spikes oilseed prices?
10%1–3 years
What if Beijing injects hundreds of billions into state banks to cover property losses?
10%3–10 years
What if a PRC invasion of Taiwan triggers sweeping sanctions on China and a global recession?
10%6–18 months
What if dollar pressure pushes USD/CNY past 7.50 and revives devaluation fears?
9%1–3 years
What if the US and allies formalise a multilateral chip export-control regime against China?
9%1–3 years
What if the Asian high-yield primary market shuts as China contagion deters buyers?
9%0–6 months
What if a US destroyer and a PLA warship collide near the Spratlys?
9%6–18 months
What if escalating controls cut US chipmakers off from the China market?
9%0–6 months
What if China antimony export curb spikes prices over 2,600%?
9%6–18 months
What if Chinese credit tightening unwinds commodity inventory-financing deals and forces destocking?
9%0–6 months
What if China critical-metals export-control escalation rattles markets?
9%6–18 months
What if a Chinese harvest shortfall drives a surge in global grain and soybean imports?
9%0–6 months
What if China imposes full rare-earth & magnet embargo?
9%1–3 years
What if China-Japan Senkaku clash bids the JPY but tanks the Nikkei?
9%1–3 years
What if China suffers a domestic Lehman moment from a major institutional failure?
9%1–3 years
What if China mines approaches to a Taiwan port in coercion campaign?
9%6–18 months
What if a sharp swing in Chinese oil demand drives an outsized move in global crude prices?
9%3–10 years
What if China's property sector stays structurally depressed for years with no rebound?
9%0–6 months
What if China re-imposes its gallium and germanium export ban?
9%0–6 months
What if China reinstates a full gallium and germanium ban?
9%0–6 months
What if China samarium export halt grounds defense magnet supply?
9%1–3 years
What if China's tier-1 city house prices fall 15-20% as confidence breaks?
9%0–6 months
What if China tightens gallium/germanium ban on chip toolmakers?
9%0–6 months
What if the US chip-tool ban reaches mature 14 and 28nm nodes?
9%1–3 years
What if China faces a twin currency-and-banking crisis at the same time?
9%0–6 months
What if the Dutch halt ASML servicing of chip machines in China?
9%0–6 months
What if the US cuts off chip-design software to China?
9%1–3 years
What if European auto and supplier issuers fall to junk together as EV disruption bites?
9%1–3 years
What if EV price wars and China competition push European auto issuers toward default?
9%0–6 months
What if China halts gallium and germanium exports and disrupts chip and fiber-optic production worldwide?
9%1–3 years
What if catastrophic aquifer depletion sharply cuts irrigated grain output in China or India?
9%3–10 years
What if a Gulf producer invoices oil to China in yuan, cracking the petrodollar?
9%0–6 months
What if the US extends HBM memory curbs further downstream?
9%1–3 years
What if defaults across LGFVs, SOEs and trusts shatter China's implicit-guarantee regime?
9%6–18 months
What if Chinese-backed nickel overcapacity drives Indonesian smelter writedowns and loan losses?
9%0–6 months
What if Japan weaponizes its photoresist and etching-gas exports?
9%3–10 years
What if the mBridge CBDC platform scales for commodity settlement outside the dollar?
9%0–6 months
What if NVDA China-revenue cliff on new license freeze?
9%1–3 years
What if Washington and Beijing freeze each other's sovereign assets?
9%3–10 years
What if reserve managers push the dollar's share below 55% by buying renminbi and gold?
9%1–3 years
What if escalating semiconductor export controls disrupt Japan's chip-equipment exports?
9%1–3 years
What if China lands forces on the Japan-administered Senkakus?
9%1–3 years
What if South China Sea tanker incident spikes Brent war-risk premium?
9%0–6 months
What if an abrupt rule change halts AI-chip exports to China overnight?
9%0–6 months
What if China quarantines Taiwan by inspecting every inbound ship?
9%0–6 months
What if China bars foreign chip engineers from leaving?
9%0–6 months
What if a sting shuts down a Southeast Asian GPU smuggling ring?
9%0–6 months
What if China severs Taiwan's undersea internet cables?
9%0–6 months
What if US-China truce collapses at the tariff cliff?
9%0–6 months
What if US chip-diversion probe slaps curbs on Malaysian data centers?
8%1–3 years
What if China weakness accelerates Asian IG-to-HY spread decompression?
8%1–3 years
What if Asian property and conglomerate issuers fall from IG to junk en masse?
8%1–3 years
What if China air-sea quarantine cuts Taiwan's fuel imports?
8%1–3 years
What if China dumped its US Treasury holdings as a weapon?
8%3–10 years
What if China's subsidised solar, battery and EV overcapacity collapses into a bust?
8%1–3 years
What if China imposes a Taiwan no-fly zone, halting commercial aviation?
8%1–3 years
What if Chinese insurers' property developer exposures impair as the property crisis drags on?
8%1–3 years
What if China local-government financing vehicles face a bond default wave?
8%0–6 months
What if Chinese new-home sales collapse as buyer confidence stays broken?
8%1–3 years
What if effective office rents collapse in China's top cities?
8%1–3 years
What if China and Russia complete a full shift to yuan and rouble trade settlement?
8%3–10 years
What if China's young coal-fleet faces stranding under a credible decarbonisation path?
8%1–3 years
What if China cuts its US Treasury holdings below $700 billion?
8%1–3 years
What if Chinese trust products tied to property developers default and hit retail investors?
8%1–3 years
What if China-Vietnam oil-rig standoff sparks Hanoi anti-China riots?
8%1–3 years
What if Combined Taiwan blockade + Korea provocation crater Asian markets?
8%Tail risk
What if China attempts a decapitation strike on Taipei?
8%6–18 months
What if China property contagion hits developers and construction lenders across Southeast Asia?
8%3–10 years
What if high energy costs and an innovation gap erode EU competitiveness versus the US and China?
8%1–3 years
What if Fatal China-Japan air-sea incident near the Senkakus?
8%1–3 years
What if Hong Kong CRE losses spill to mainland and international banks?
8%6–18 months
What if Hong Kong is hit simultaneously by China's property slump and high US-driven HIBOR?
8%1–3 years
What if India clashes militarily with Pakistan or China on its borders?
8%3–10 years
What if petrostates recycle surpluses into gold and yuan instead of Treasuries?
8%0–6 months
What if PLA fighter weapons-locks a US recon plane over the SCS?
8%1–3 years
What if the PLA seizes Taiwan's Kinmen islands?
8%1–3 years
What if PLA seizes Taiwan-held Itu Aba in the Spratlys?
8%0–6 months
What if a Power of Siberia rupture halts Russian gas to China?
8%3–10 years
What if US-China relations freeze into a permanent cold-war footing?
8%0–6 months
What if a PLA jet shoots down a US surveillance plane over the Spratlys?
8%1–3 years
What if China imposes a customs quarantine on Taiwan that throttles chip flows below the threshold for Western military response?
7%1–3 years
What if the PLA seizes territory in Arunachal Pradesh?
7%6–18 months
What if a dollar-and-yuan shock drags KRW, TWD, THB and INR lower together?
7%1–3 years
What if China's bilateral swap-line web gives partners a viable dollar-light liquidity backstop?
7%6–18 months
What if a China-led oil demand shock hits Canadian and Norwegian producers in tandem?
7%1–3 years
What if Chinese residential prices fall 50% in lower-tier cities in a severe scenario?
7%1–3 years
What if falling Chinese bond yields open a negative-spread gap in life insurers' legacy policies?
7%3–10 years
What if global green-finance standards divert capital from China's carbon-intensive SOEs?
7%1–3 years
What if China's CIPS gains critical mass as a sanctions-resilient SWIFT alternative?
7%3–10 years
What if US and Chinese spacecraft square off near the Moon?
7%1–3 years
What if China's robotic satellite disables a US spy satellite in orbit?
7%1–3 years
What if Limited PLA-Philippine firefight at a contested Spratly reef?
7%1–3 years
What if a major commodity exporter shifts contracts away from dollar invoicing?
7%0–6 months
What if a fire halts America's only rare-earth refinery?
7%6–18 months
What if renminbi-funded carry into Asian and commodity currencies reverses sharply?
7%1–3 years
What if a large economy converts dollar reserves into gold and commodities to dodge sanctions?
7%6–18 months
What if a Western bloc cuts Chinese banks off from SWIFT?
7%1–3 years
What if China blockades Taiwan and chokes the chip supply?
7%1–3 years
What if US-China confrontation after MDT activation over Manila?
6%6–18 months
What if a surprise yuan devaluation reprises the August 2015 deflationary shock?
6%1–3 years
What if an Asia-based family office's China-ADR swap book unwinds on a regulatory shock?
6%1–3 years
What if China's nascent C-REIT market de-rates as underlying property values fall?
6%1–3 years
What if China and Japan trim US Treasury holdings and lift yields?
6%0–6 months
What if the Malaysian ringgit slides to its weakest since the Asian financial crisis?
6%1–3 years
What if a Taiwan conflict prompts G7 sanctions on China and Chinese counter-sanctions?
6%6–18 months
What if rising NPLs across Singapore banks' Greater China and ASEAN subsidiaries compress group capital?
6%Tail risk
What if a Taiwan crisis freezes access to Chinese bond markets?
6%1–3 years
What if Xi Jinping is suddenly incapacitated?
5%1–3 years
What if India strikes China's mega-dam on the Brahmaputra?
5%6–18 months
What if a cyberattack disrupts a major Chinese bank during geopolitical tension?
5%0–6 months
What if a CNH liquidity squeeze spikes offshore yuan funding costs in Hong Kong?