What if Climate-migration insurance gap widens US coastal fiscal risk?
Accelerating internal climate migration away from uninsurable coasts erodes local tax bases and municipal credit; affected muni spreads widen and regional growth softens as populations and capital relocate.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Accelerating internal climate migration away from uninsurable coasts erodes local tax bases and municipal credit; affected muni spreads widen and regional growth softens as populations and capital relocate. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.