What if disease ends the cocoa glut overnight?
A swollen-shoot/black-pod outbreak in Ivory Coast and Ghana (~60% of world cocoa) reverses the 2026 glut and rockets cocoa off its lows — long cocoa is the trade; the wheat/corn-led cascade misreads a single-commodity disease shock. Rhymes with the 2023-24 West Africa disease/weather crisis that sent cocoa to ~$12,000, a historic squeeze. Transmission: chocolate makers (Hershey, Lindt, Mondelez) eat margin pain and pass through to CPI. Forward: swollen-shoot permanently kills trees, so the supply hole persists years — structurally bullish, not a transient pop.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A severe swollen-shoot and black-pod outbreak hits Ivory Coast and Ghana, abruptly reversing the 2026 glut and rocketing cocoa off its lows. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.