What if a compound climate disaster fails crops and infrastructure at once?
A compound climate event is a soft-commodity shock first: wheat and corn rally on yield loss, feeding food CPI, with water-intensive fabs a secondary disruption. Closest grain-spike analogues are the 2010-11 Russian heatwave/export-ban surge and the 2012 US Midwest drought, both of which sent wheat and corn sharply higher. Forward angle: the semis-via-water-stress link in the cascade is thin and over-broad — the actionable, high-conviction leg is grains and fertilizer, not the chip complex, which water scarcity affects only at extreme localized stress.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A compound climate event causes simultaneous crop and infrastructure failures. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.