What if a fresh bank run in China deepens the deflationary spiral?
A fresh financial-stability scare (bank run or large default) deepens precautionary saving and the deflationary spiral, undoing tentative recovery and forcing emergency stimulus.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A fresh financial-stability scare (bank run or large default) deepens precautionary saving and the deflationary spiral, undoing tentative recovery and forcing emergency stimulus. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Consumer spending ▼ · Inflation surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -16.12–+1.75% · other way -5.04% (n=10) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.93–+1.21% · other way +2.69% (n=11) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.73–+0.7% · other way +6.92% (n=11) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.85–+0.05% · other way +2.18% (n=11) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -10.87–+1.8% · other way +2.56% (n=10) |
| 7 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.17–+0.2% · other way -2.73% (n=10) |
| 8 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.67–+0.77% · other way -0.35% (n=10) |
| 9 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.49–-0.01% · other way -0.57% (n=11) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.48–+0.78% · other way -0.84% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.64–+1.32% · other way +2.51% (n=10) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.28–+0.65% · other way -1.88% (n=11) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.41–+1.72% · other way -0.45% (n=11) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.53–+0.06% · other way +1.94% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.8% · 5d -15.5% | 77% | 30 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -3.7% | 71% | 40 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.0% · 5d -8.8% | 72% | 32 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.6% | 69% | 36 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.0% | 64% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.4% | 63% | 36 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -4.4% | 63% | 36 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.1% | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.0% | 59% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.2% | 59% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.4% | 59% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 59% | 36 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |