What if Chinese consumer confidence stays near record lows for years?
Household confidence stays near record lows as the property wealth shock and youth unemployment drive precautionary saving, locking in chronically weak consumption and undershooting growth targets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Household confidence stays near record lows as the property wealth shock and youth unemployment drive precautionary saving, locking in chronically weak consumption and undershooting growth targets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Consumer spending ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -17.34–+8.85% · other way -2.36% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.41–+3.16% · other way +23.21% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.43–+0.21% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -12.66–+6.23% · other way +3.62% (n=12) |
| 6 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.56–+1.58% · other way +0.86% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.01–+1.9% · other way +2.35% (n=12) |
| 8 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.92–+0.13% · other way +3.0% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.74–+3.28% · other way +4.72% (n=12) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.4–-0.11% · other way +0.07% (n=12) |
| 11 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.37–+1.11% · other way -0.3% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.52–+0.44% · other way +0.52% (n=12) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.45–-0.01% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 14 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.59–+0.02% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -16.8% · 5d -22.6% | 78% | 9 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -12.2% · 5d -12.0% | 73% | 11 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.1% | 73% | 15 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 68% | 19 | 0.32 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d +5.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 17 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 15 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -6.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 15 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 15 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.5% | 60% | 15 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 15 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 15 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.9% | 60% | 15 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.8% | 60% | 15 | 0.15 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.6% | 58% | 19 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |