What if China's consumption vouchers and trade-in schemes fail to lift spending?
Targeted consumption vouchers and trade-in schemes prove too small and short-lived to durably lift household spending, leaving the rebalancing toward consumption stalled.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Targeted consumption vouchers and trade-in schemes prove too small and short-lived to durably lift household spending, leaving the rebalancing toward consumption stalled. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · China stimulus ▼ · Consumer spending ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.74–+1.47% · other way +0.86% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.07–+0.04% · other way +3.0% (n=12) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.52–+1.02% · other way -0.3% (n=12) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.72–-0.06% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 5 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.91–+0.18% · other way -0.93% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.41–+-0.0% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 7 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.23–+1.07% · other way -0.86% (n=12) |
| 8 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.26–-0.03% · other way +0.07% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.42–+0.56% · other way +0.52% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -16.89–+9.12% · other way -2.36% (n=12) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.05% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.16–+3.58% · other way +23.21% (n=12) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.19–+1.79% · other way +2.35% (n=12) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.13–-0.04% · other way +2.49% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -16.8% · 5d -22.6% | 78% | 9 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 68% | 19 | 0.32 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d +5.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 17 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 15 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.5% | 60% | 15 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -6.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 15 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 15 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 15 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 15 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.9% | 60% | 15 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.8% | 60% | 15 | 0.15 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.6% | 58% | 19 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.5% | 57% | 14 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -3.6% | 57% | 14 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |