What if an approved CRISPR therapy is linked to new cancers?
Direct chain: an FDA clinical hold after CRISPR off-target leukemias triggers a gene-editing selloff — short the edited-therapy basket (CRSP, NTLA, BEAM) and re-rate the whole platform's risk premium. Rhymes with the 2018 Cas9-p53/off-target papers that knocked 15-20% off editing names in a day, and the 1999 Gelsinger gene-therapy death that froze the field. Sector-contained risk-off with minimal macro footprint — the crypto/VIX cascade is incidental; trade the biotech basket.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Approved CRISPR therapy linked to secondary leukemias from off-target edits, prompting FDA clinical-hold and gene-editing selloff. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.