What if a global dollar squeeze blows out the cross-currency basis, hitting Japanese institutions hardest?
A global dollar-funding squeeze blows the cross-currency basis out across major pairs, and Japanese institutions — the marginal supplier of yen and demander of dollars in swap markets — sit at the epicenter of the dislocation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A global dollar-funding squeeze blows the cross-currency basis out across major pairs, and Japanese institutions — the marginal supplier of yen and demander of dollars in swap markets — sit at the epicenter of the dislocation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.4% hist -7.4–+0.36% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.4% hist -9.48–+1.34% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.2% hist -12.4–+2.86% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.84–-0.33% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -11.81–+2.86% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -7.05–+3.35% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.02–+1.33% · other way +1.04% (n=12) |
| 9 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -4.19–+0.86% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
| 10 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.39–+0.09% · other way -1.81% (n=12) |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.65–+0.14% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
| 12 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.4–+0.08% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -7bp hist -4.84–-2.15% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.09–+0.41% · other way -7.07% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.2% · 5d -7.5% | 79% | 14 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.9% · 5d -5.4% | 75% | 16 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 68% | 37 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -4.2% | 68% | 22 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 68% | 37 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 37 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 37 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 37 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -2.7% | 64% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.6% | 59% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d -1.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.4% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.2% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |