FX carry appetite
Every scenario in which fx carry appetite is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
475 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
58%▼ 6–18 months
What if BOJ exits negative rates smoothly with a gradual, telegraphed glide?
54%▲ 1–3 years
What if Mexico nearshoring wave lifts the peso?
54%▲ 1–3 years
What if Banxico easing cycle powers a peso carry comeback?
54%▲ 1–3 years
What if Mexico investment-grade defense draws stable inflows?
53%▲ 1–3 years
What if MENA disinflation broadens, real EM yields turn attractive?
52%▲ 6–18 months
What if Egypt reform-and-FDI story makes it the EM turnaround trade?
50%▲ 1–3 years
What if Latin America disinflation reopens EM bond inflows?
49%▼ 6–18 months
What if BOJ scraps yield-curve control without a JGB market dislocation?
47%▲ 1–3 years
What if Malaysia GLC reform and dividend repatriation boost equities?
46%▲ 1–3 years
What if Frontier-Africa local-currency bonds draw global funds?
46%▲ 6–18 months
What if Egypt re-included in the GBI-EM index, inflows return?
46%▲ 6–18 months
What if FTSE Russell EMGBI add stacks a second India inflow wave?
46%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM central banks run an aggressive synchronized easing cycle?
45%▲ 6–18 months
What if Vietnam upgrade prompts $1bn+ active EM fund reallocation?
44%▼ 6–18 months
What if Mexico judicial overhaul spurs capital outflows?
44%▲ 6–18 months
What if Foreign inflows flood Turkish local bonds as orthodoxy sticks?
44%▲ 6–18 months
What if Coordinated EM easing reflates global trade and commodity demand?
43%▲ 1–3 years
What if MENA local-currency debt joins benchmark indices en masse?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if Turkey regains investment-grade trajectory, CDS halves?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if Turkey GBI-EM weight rises as bond market normalizes?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if Naira stabilizes as CBN clears the FX backlog?
42%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM real-rate champions draw record carry inflows on credible cuts?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if Lira real appreciation as the carry trade re-anchors Turkey?
41%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bloomberg EM Local index inclusion completes the India trifecta?
40%▲ 0–6 months
What if Egypt lets the pound slide past 60 to the dollar?
40%▲ 6–18 months
What if Brazil's Selic-cut disinflation sparks a BRL carry rally?
40%▲ 6–18 months
What if Turkey CPI breaks to 26% as the CBRT begins easing?
40%▼ 6–18 months
What if Turkey lira-bond inflows reverse on a global EM outflow wave?
40%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM disinflation lets central banks cut while keeping real rates high?
39%▼ 0–6 months
What if Nigeria's naira breaks past 1,800 to the dollar?
39%▲ 1–3 years
What if BoJ executes a smooth normalization; JGB yields rise orderly?
39%▲ 1–3 years
What if ASEAN index-weight rises as MSCI/FTSE EM lift allocations?
38%▲ 1–3 years
What if Turkey rate-cut cycle proceeds without breaking the lira?
37%▲ 6–18 months
What if Kenya disinflation lets the CBK cut into a bond rally?
37%▲ 6–18 months
What if CEE convergence trade outperforms broader EM?
37%▼ 1–3 years
What if BOJ caps long-end JGB volatility with a calibrated bond-buying band?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Argentine peso firms as monthly inflation hits low single digits?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Mexico disinflation soft landing keeps the super-peso bid?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if CBN rate-cut cycle begins as Nigerian inflation rolls over?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if Indonesia sovereign rating upgraded as downstreaming pays off?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if Philippines investment-grade-plus inflows broaden ROP demand?
35%▼ 6–18 months
What if a populist Romanian budget triggers a leu selloff?
35%▲ 1–3 years
What if Dong stabilization + carry revival pulls in real-money flows?
35%▲ 1–3 years
What if Philippines rating upgraded to A-band on growth and reform?
35%▲ 6–18 months
What if Indonesia real-yield premium draws record SBN bond inflows?
35%▲ 1–3 years
What if Indonesia capital-market deepening lifts SBN demand and IDR?
35%▲ 1–3 years
What if Structural dollar-bear cycle sparks a broad EM-FX renaissance?
34%▼ 6–18 months
What if Ethiopia's stalled eurobond default deepens?
34%▲ 0–6 months
What if Banxico's wide rate gap to the Fed sustains peso carry?
34%▲ 1–3 years
What if Turkish disinflation reaches single digits by 2027?
34%▲ 1–3 years
What if SARB rate-cut cycle fuels a South African bond rally?
34%▲ 1–3 years
What if Frontier-Africa local-currency bonds rejoin global indices?
34%▲ 6–18 months
What if CBN orthodox tightening restores naira credibility?
33%▼ 0–6 months
What if the Bank of Japan intervenes to defend the yen past 165?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if TSMC dual-fab Japan+US strategy compresses TWD risk premium?
33%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoJ normalizes smoothly; yen carry stays orderly?
33%▲ 6–18 months
What if RBI's smoothing keeps the rupee Asia's lowest-vol EM currency?
33%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM local-debt foreign-inflow supercycle on index inclusion?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if TWD carry rebuilds as Strait tensions normalize lower?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if CNH firms to 6.9 as US-China tension fades?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Argentine real-rate carry trade draws hot money inflows?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Brazil's high real rates power a record carry inflow?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if Naira convergence ends the parallel-market premium?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if Kenyan shilling strength surprises on diaspora inflows?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if RBI builds an FX war-chest past $750bn in reserves?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Philippines BSP-led disinflation revives bond and peso inflows?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Search-for-yield: frontier spreads grind to multi-year tights?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM CDS-cash basis normalizes as liquidity returns to frontier bonds?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if Volatility-selling income regime supports a low-vol bull?
31%▼ 0–6 months
What if Hungary's spending splurge breaches EU deficit rules and sinks the forint?
31%▲ 1–3 years
What if Orderly yen appreciation as the BoJ-Fed policy gap narrows?
31%▲ 1–3 years
What if KRW rallies as a Peninsula thaw and chip cycle align?
31%▲ 1–3 years
What if Stable yen and resilient chips underpin an Asia soft landing?
31%▲ 1–3 years
What if Weak-dollar regime fuels a sweeping LatAm FX rally?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if A Fed easing cycle lifts the whole MENA EM-FX complex?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ringgit REER re-rates as repatriation mandate lifts MYR?
31%▲ 1–3 years
What if Malaysia subsidy reform earns fiscal upgrade, deficit narrows?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if Yen-funded carry book rotates fresh leverage into EM high-yielders?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed-cut dollar downcycle reopens EM portfolio-inflow taps?
31%▲ 1–3 years
What if Global soft landing powers a multi-year EM total-return cycle?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if BOJ guides a stronger yen, easing imported-inflation pressure calmly?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if BCRP credibility keeps the sol the calmest EM currency?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if S&P lifts Turkey to BB on rebuilt reserves?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if NBP holds high while ECB eases, PLN carry shines?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if Frontier easing cycle begins as inflation falls and currency stabilizes?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM real-rate carry super-cycle pulls in record cross-border inflows?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM total-return carry beats DM credit, pulling pension allocations in?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if Goldilocks easing weakens the dollar and lifts the whole EM-FX bloc?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if the Bank of Japan ends yield-curve control and hikes hard?
29%▼ 0–6 months
What if Brazil hikes its Selic rate to 16% to defend the real?
29%▼ 0–6 months
What if the Bank of Korea defends the won past 1,600?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Stable BoJ path and reflation pull global funds into Japan?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM-Asia bond inflows surge as the war-risk premium fades?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Orderly BoJ exit lets the JPY firm without breaking global carry?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Carry revival as vol collapses post-truce?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Argentina lifts cepo capital controls without a peso crash?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if LatAm real-rate carry basket draws record inflows?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if MENA carry trades rebuild as real rates stay high?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if Risk-off shock unwinds crowded MENA carry positions?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Ghana disinflation lets the BoG cut and the cedi steady?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Nigeria attracts hot money as real yields turn deeply positive?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Kenya infrastructure-bond demand deepens local funding?
29%▲ 3–10 years
What if India's local-currency debt market becomes EM's benchmark?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if NBP surprise cuts trigger a zloty carry unwind?
29%▲ 0–6 months
What if GBI-EM index inclusion of a new local market draws passive inflows?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM dedicated funds see record inflows on disinflation pivot?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Egypt returns to GBI-EM after FX flexibility restores eligibility?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Crossover investors return to EM, compressing the IG-HY frontier gap?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM ETF creation surge channels passive money into frontier credit?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM real-rate premium attracts global bond tourists?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Deepening onshore FX forward market lowers frontier hedging costs?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Distressed-debt funds rotate into frontier exit-yield opportunities?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Frontier-bond total returns lead global fixed income for the year?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM hard-currency net supply turns negative, supporting spreads?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Carry-to-vol regime shift makes EM the structural funding sink?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if High-real-rate EM bloc anchors a multi-year carry-allocation shift?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Capital-account liberalization unlocks a wave of EM portfolio inflows?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if GBI-EM index rebalancing redirects passive flows into new entrants?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM-FX volatility regime falls, re-rating the carry-adjusted basket?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM credit-spread compression underwrites a currency-and-bond rally?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM real-rate normalization sustains a durable disinflation-and-FX gain?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM-FX valuation gap closes as undervalued currencies mean-revert?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if Japan's wage talks deliver a 7% inflation breakout?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Broad EM-FX rally on weak dollar and trade thaw?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if BanRep easing cycle revives a Colombian peso carry?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Positive-real-rate EM disinflators draw a structural carry premium?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM real-rate compression rally as inflation falls faster than rates?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Broad EM disinflation plus a soft dollar delivers a goldilocks-EM regime?
27%▼ 1–3 years
What if doubts over Japan's debt sent JGB yields soaring?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if Argentina's planned return to global bond markets falls apart?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if Egypt fails its next IMF review?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Yen-carry resurgence funds an Asia-wide equity melt-up?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if BoJ hikes, yen surges and carry unwinds?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Rand carry trade revives as SA real yields stay high?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if SSA disinflation wave enables synchronized rate cuts?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Baht funding-currency status revives as BoT eases?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if EUR/HUF blows past 400 as recovery funds lapse?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if Hungary's twin deficits keep the forint fragile?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if CNB easing with stable CZK supports Czech carry-lite?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM local-currency debt outperforms hard-currency as USD softens?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Foreign ownership of EM local bonds rebounds on carry revival?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Foreign ownership of EM local bonds climbs back toward cycle highs?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Real-money allocators rotate from EM hard debt into local-currency bonds?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM-FX carry-plus-spread total return tops global fixed income?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed-dovish pivot revives the EM real-rate carry advantage?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM equity-inflow rotation adds a currency tailwind to the bond bid?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Dollar top confirmation kicks off a multi-quarter EM-FX uptrend?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Countercyclical capital-flow management smooths an EM inflow surge?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Carry-trade renaissance as global vol structurally resets lower?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM-FX REER undervaluation plus reform draws a value-allocator wave?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Angola FX-reform float draws portfolio inflows?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sticky Polish core CPI forces NBP to stay hawkish?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Capital-control liberalization restores frontier market access?
26%▼ 0–6 months
What if Global EM-carry unwind as a vol shock breaks the Sharpe?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Orderly band-widening lets an EM exit a peg without a crash?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if New benchmark methodology broadens the eligible EM-debt universe?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Cheaper dollar hedging lifts hedged EM-bond demand from lifers?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM dispersion returns, rewarding fundamentals over beta?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM disinflation re-rates real-money allocations into local bonds?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if An EM inflation-targeting success story anchors a re-rating?
25%▼ 0–6 months
What if Argentina's peso collapses after Milei lifts capital controls?
25%▼ 6–18 months
What if Kenya fails to roll over its 2027 eurobond?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if Asia-Pacific de-escalation revives broad EM-Asia carry inflows?
25%▼ 0–6 months
What if Mexican peso carry unwind as the Fed-Banxico gap narrows?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if BNM holds while Fed cuts, ringgit carry trade revives?
25%▲ 0–6 months
What if MNB emergency rate hike defends a sliding forint?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if Hungary's high real rate keeps forint carry alive?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM index-weight cap reform redistributes flows from big to small issuers?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if Frontier dollar-bond new-issue concession collapses on hot demand?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM carry basket rebuilds as implied FX vol grinds to multi-year lows?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if EM central banks out-cut the Fed, thinning the carry cushion?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if Dollar-bloc breakaway lets EM cut rates without sinking the currency?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM central bank pivots to easing as the Fed cuts, fueling carry?
25%▲ 3–10 years
What if Japan's demographic deflation keeps real yields pinned negative?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Argentine carry unwind sparks a dollarization flight?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Egypt inflation falls below 15% as the CBE eases?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if EM carry unwind triggers an SSA frontier-FX rout?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Global carry unwind hits high-beta CEE FX hardest?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Local-currency frontier bonds gain dedicated-index representation?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Local-currency bond market debut for a frontier first-time issuer?
24%▼ 0–6 months
What if Yen-carry unwind into EM as USDJPY snaps on a BoJ surprise?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Positive EM real-rate gap to DM widens the carry buffer?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Macroprudential FX toolkit tames EM capital-flow volatility?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if BOJ pauses normalization, re-anchoring a stable, risk-on carry regime?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM central bank's orthodox hike rebuilds shattered FX credibility?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM central-bank credibility wins a sovereign upgrade and cheaper debt?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if SNB and BoJ FX intervention reshapes haven flows?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if ASEAN local-bond inflows resume on disinflation and rate cuts?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Vietnam reserve rebuild restores dong stability and carry?
23%▼ 0–6 months
What if EM foreign-outflow air-pocket hits thin local-market liquidity?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if FX-reserve manager rotation favors high-quality EM local bonds?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if Twin-deficit dollar erosion structurally lifts the EM-FX basket?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if Yen slides past 165, MoF intervenes?
22%▼ 6–18 months
What if LatAm central banks out-ease the Fed, narrowing carry buffers?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed cuts unleash broad ASEAN carry-trade inflow surge?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if Onshore-offshore convergence signals an EM regime stabilization?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if Volatility stays suppressed as dealers run long gamma?
22%▼ 6–18 months
What if PBOC widens the yuan trading band toward a freer float?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM central bank hikes pre-emptively, out-hawking the Fed?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM central bank gains independence via a new statutory mandate?
21%▼ 0–6 months
What if Turkey inflation upside surprise stalls the easing cycle?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if BI dual-intervention stabilizes rupiah, rebuilds reserves?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if EM real-rate cushion erodes as inflation reaccelerates?
21%▼ 0–6 months
What if Crowded-long EM-FX positioning flushes in a one-day stop-out?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if BOJ normalization lures Japanese savings home, draining global duration?
21%▼ 0–6 months
What if Surprise EM emergency hike to defend a collapsing currency?
20%▼ 0–6 months
What if the yen panics past 175 to the dollar?
20%▼ 0–6 months
What if the Malaysian ringgit sinks to its 1998 lows?
20%▼ 0–6 months
What if a snap election topples Japan's new LDP majority?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Vol spike unwinds crowded carry on geo shock?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Brazil carry unwind on a global EM sell-off?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Mexico-and-Brazil nearshoring-plus-carry double bid lifts EM?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Vietnam wins sovereign IG upgrade to BBB- on growth track?
20%▼ 0–6 months
What if NBP verbal intervention caps an overshooting zloty?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Forint snaps higher on a dovish ECB and risk-on tape?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if CEE rate-cut divergence reshapes regional FX leadership?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Sudden stop: foreign outflows from EM local debt hit crisis pace?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Capital controls imposed to stem frontier outflows trap foreign holders?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Egypt local T-bill yields spike as carry traders demand higher premium?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Capital controls relaxed in stages as confidence returns?
20%▼ 0–6 months
What if Foreign-positioning capitulation drives an EM local-bond yield spike?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if EM real-yield collapse as cuts outrun disinflation erodes carry?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Capital-flow boom-bust cycle leaves an EM overheated then exposed?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if BOJ overshoots tightening and tips Japan back into deflation?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if BOJ becomes the swing factor in global duration as it exits ZIRP?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Hungary fast-tracks its way into the euro?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Erdogan loses power and the lira rallies?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if North Korea declares a testing moratorium for sanctions relief?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Yen normalization reverses a decade of JPY-funded global carry?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Leu stability and falling CPI revive Romanian carry?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sticky Czech services CPI delays CNB cuts?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if Synchronized CEE easing compresses the carry trade?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if CEE local-bond inflows deepen on index-weight gains?
19%▼ 0–6 months
What if EM-carry crash on a synchronized DM rate-vol blowout?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Index-inclusion front-running lifts an EM ahead of formal entry?
19%▼ 0–6 months
What if EM-FX volatility shock breaks the low-vol carry consensus?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if EM-FX correlation spikes to one, killing diversification benefits?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM disinflation easing wave: LatAm and Asia central banks cut early?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if BOJ hikes faster than markets price, snapping the yen carry trade?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if BOJ-Fed policy divergence widens, supercharging the yen carry trade?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if PBOC defends the yuan with offshore liquidity squeeze and bill sales?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if EM central bank burns reserves defending an indefensible peg?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if EM hiking surprise crushes a crowded local-rates receiver trade?
18%▼ 0–6 months
What if a surprise BOJ hike to 1.5% detonates the carry trade?
18%▼ 0–6 months
What if BoJ surprise hike snaps USDJPY and unwinds the yen carry?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Turkey orthodoxy revives, lira stabilizes?
18%▼ 0–6 months
What if VIX spike unwinds crowded LatAm carry on a global shock?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Egypt dropped from GBI-EM again as liquidity dries up?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Zloty hits a 5-year high as CEE carry leads EM?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Dollar downcycle supercharges CEE and frontier carry?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sticky CEE inflation keeps regional real rates attractive?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Crossover exodus: DM funds dump EM as home-market yields beckon?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Frontier index expansion adds 4 new sub-Saharan issuers?
18%▼ 0–6 months
What if Leveraged EM-carry deleveraging cascades through prime-broker margin?
18%▼ 0–6 months
What if Carry crash spreads from one high-beta EM funder to the whole bloc?
18%▼ 0–6 months
What if Benchmark exclusion forces forced-selling out of an EM local market?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if FX-hedging-cost spike makes EM local debt uneconomic for foreigners?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if EM sovereign-spread blowout reprices the whole local-FX complex?
18%▼ 0–6 months
What if EM equity-outflow shock compounds local-bond selling on the FX?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Shallow local investor base leaves an EM at the mercy of foreigners?
18%▼ 0–6 months
What if Global vol regime break ends the EM carry party abruptly?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if EM central-bank credibility loss as a government overrides the board?
17%▼ 0–6 months
What if the Korean won breaks past 1,650 to the dollar?
17%▼ 0–6 months
What if the Indonesian rupiah breaks through 19,000 to the dollar?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if the EU freezes Poland's recovery funds over rule-of-law concerns?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Nigeria freezes dollar repatriation for foreign investors?
17%▼ 0–6 months
What if Mexico's Banxico hikes between meetings to halt a peso rout?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if PBoC easing widens the China-US rate gap and accelerates yuan outflows?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Global carry unwind from a Japan rate shock hammers EM-Asia FX?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if EM contagion from an Argentine peso break hits regional FX?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Turkey real-rate regime makes the lira a top EM carry currency?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Forint crisis sends EUR/HUF toward 430?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if CNB FX-reserve unwind caps koruna upside?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if CEE intervention wave caps overshooting currencies?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Foreign ownership of EM local bonds hits multi-year low on de-risking?
17%▼ 0–6 months
What if Crossover outflow wave dumps EM local debt back to dedicated funds?
17%▼ 0–6 months
What if Inflation-surprise outflow shock unwinds crowded EM local-bond longs?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Pension & SWF capital floods ILS, deepens cat capacity?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if VIX regime collapse: realized vol craters as the soft landing confirms?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if BOJ rate-differential snap-back triggers a global risk-parity delever?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if EM peg break forces a maxi-devaluation and capital controls?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if EM rate-cut misstep reignites inflation and forces a U-turn?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if a BoJ hike triggers a violent yen-carry unwind like August 2024?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if the yen carry trade collapses and triggers a global risk-asset selloff?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Yen-carry unwind from a Korea war scare hits global equities?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if Peso carry unwind on US-Mexico security shock?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Turkey CDS converges toward Gulf peers as orthodoxy endures?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if Funding-currency squeeze whipsaws the crowded EM-carry trade?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if Risk-parity delever drags EM-FX down with global cross-asset selling?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if EM-FX drawdown wipes out a year of carry in weeks?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if Dollar-bull breakout triggers an EM-FX correlation crash lower?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if Overvalued-EM-FX cohort corrects sharply on a growth disappointment?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if EM-FX gap-risk explodes as weekend headlines reprice the open?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if BOJ exits NIRP and YCC in one disorderly JGB-yield tantrum?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if BOJ loses the JGB market as a failed auction forces emergency buying?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if Failed yen intervention accelerates the slide and a carry blow-off?
15%▼ 6–18 months
What if the BOJ's unrealised bond losses exceed its own capital?
15%▼ 0–6 months
What if a flight-to-safety surge drives the dollar index above 120?
15%▼ 0–6 months
What if Argentine carry sudden-stop as global risk appetite sours?
15%▼ 3–10 years
What if De-dollarization gambit backfires as investors flee local debt?
15%▼ 0–6 months
What if Liquidity mismatch in EM local-debt ETFs amplifies an outflow spiral?
15%▼ 0–6 months
What if Hot-money exodus exposes an EM with a thin balance-of-payments cushion?
15%▼ 6–18 months
What if Crowded yen-carry unwind transmits into US equity drawdown?
14%▼ Imminent
What if a second global yen-carry unwind hits?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if a sharp yuan devaluation drags Asian currencies and equities lower?
14%▼ 6–18 months
What if higher dollar funding costs collapse the foreign net-interest income of Japanese megabanks?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Turkey reserves rebuild as carry inflows return?
14%▼ 0–6 months
What if EM-FX flash-crash on thin holiday liquidity stops out leverage?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if Carry-trade unwind cascade: funding-currency snapback hits risk?
14%▼ 0–6 months
What if Nikkei reversal as a yen-carry snap forces foreign selling?
13%▼ 6–18 months
What if 40y JGB yield melt-up triggers a global carry-trade unwind?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Iran reintegration revives a regional carry trade?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Turkey inflation breaks lower toward 20 percent?
13%▼ 0–6 months
What if MNB FX-swap stress spikes forint funding costs?
13%▼ 1–3 years
What if Japan exits deflation: BoJ normalizes, global yields drift higher?
12%▼ 1–3 years
What if a mega-earthquake strikes Tokyo or California?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Argentina scraps the peso and adopts the dollar?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Asian central banks intervene jointly in currencies?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if uninsured deposits flee CRE-heavy regional banks in a repeat of March 2023?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if elevated USD-JPY hedging costs turn Japanese institutions' foreign-bond carry deeply negative?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if a dollar-funding squeeze widens Korea's cross-currency basis and forces a Fed swap-line request?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if the BoK is forced to cut rates into a slump despite won weakness and Fed rate differentials?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Egypt T-bill yields tumble as foreign carry money floods in?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Egypt hot-money exodus reopens the pound's devaluation gap?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if BOJ intervenes to defend a sliding yen past a line in the sand?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Coordinated US-Japan FX intervention defends the yen at extremes?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if FHLB curbs on CRE-concentrated banks tighten their contingent funding?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if Sweden raises the CRE risk-weight floor for bank capital?
11%▼ 0–6 months
What if a global risk-off unwinds the crowded Mexican peso carry trade abruptly?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if a dollar shortage blows the USD-JPY cross-currency basis sharply negative?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if a sharp won-yen cross move disrupts Korean exporters' competitiveness versus Japan?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if a broad dollar funding squeeze hits Asia-ex-China banks simultaneously?
11%▼ 0–6 months
What if yen-carry liquidation spikes the VIX above 50 again?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if a Brazilian fiscal scare collapses the real carry trade past 6.50/USD?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if the Mexican peso carry trade unwinds past 22/USD?
10%▼ 0–6 months
What if the Bank of Japan surprises with a hike to 1.5%?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if US community banks sharply cut CRE lending to preserve capital?
10%▼ 0–6 months
What if a dollar surge squeezes EM dollar funding and forces reserve drawdowns across emerging markets?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if a volatility spike unwinds the crowded EM-FX carry trade en masse?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if a large Japanese institution is again forced to dump low-coupon foreign bonds at a loss?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if an institution running unhedged foreign-bond carry is forced to liquidate into a yen-strengthening window?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if foreign funds exit Tokyo property as yen-hedged returns turn negative?
10%▼ 0–6 months
What if the Korean won slides disorderly toward 1,600 per dollar on a foreign equity-outflow stampede?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if an unwind of won-funded carry trades spikes Korean short-term funding costs?
10%▼ 0–6 months
What if a dollar-funding squeeze seizes up Swedish banks' heavy FX-swap reliance?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if credit volatility breaks out of its compressed regime?
10%▼ 0–6 months
What if a dollar-funding scramble drives the EUR/USD cross-currency basis to -150bp?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if the Bank of Japan hikes faster than expected and detonates the short-yen trade?
10%▼ 0–6 months
What if BRL, MXN, ZAR and IDR sell off together as carry baskets unwind?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if Turkey net reserves turn positive, lira de-risks?
9%▼ 1–3 years
What if the ECB imposes higher CRE risk weights and forces euro-area banks to delever?
9%▼ 6–18 months
What if project-finance losses trigger a run on Korean savings banks?
9%▼ 1–3 years
What if a dollar shortage blows out the cross-currency basis as non-US banks scramble for USD?
9%▼ 0–6 months
What if a BoJ tightening surprise snaps the global yen-carry trade and dumps risk assets?
9%▼ 1–3 years
What if regional banks, shinkin and cooperatives all de-risk foreign bonds simultaneously?
9%▼ 1–3 years
What if the megabanks' dollar asset-liability gap becomes acutely costly to roll in a tightening?
9%▼ 6–18 months
What if Korea's National Pension Service FX-hedging flows amplify won volatility in risk-off episodes?
9%▼ 0–6 months
What if Singapore's three major banks face a foreign-currency liquidity squeeze in a dollar shortage?
9%▼ 0–6 months
What if a global dollar-funding squeeze hits Nordic banks' large FX-swap reliance simultaneously?
9%▼ 0–6 months
What if a widening BoC-Fed rate gap drives the Canadian dollar sharply weaker?
9%▼ 6–18 months
What if yen-funded tech longs unwind violently as USD/JPY collapses?
9%▼ 6–18 months
What if South Africa's rand carry unwinds as fiscal slippage deepens?
9%▼ 6–18 months
What if rising US yields trigger an Indonesian rupiah carry unwind past 17,000?
9%▼ 1–3 years
What if China-Japan Senkaku clash bids the JPY but tanks the Nikkei?
8%▼ 0–6 months
What if property-sector stress drives a krona sell-off feeding back into CRE?
8%▼ 1–3 years
What if Basel III output-floor rules raise capital on CRE and curb bank lending?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if non-US NBFIs face a dollar-funding squeeze via FX-swap rollover failure?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if a global sovereign-stress episode sends the dollar surging and tightens global conditions?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if a disorderly yen slump forces faster BoJ hikes and squeezes carry trades globally?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if a volatility surge unwinds euro carry trades and deleverages European markets?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if diverging ECB and BoE policy paths spike EUR/GBP volatility and complicate corporate hedging?
8%▼ 0–6 months
What if a yen surge and carry unwind produce a multi-day Nikkei volatility shock?
8%▼ 1–3 years
What if Japanese life insurers take heavy losses on their foreign-bond portfolios?
8%▼ 1–3 years
What if structured notes held by Japanese regional banks take heavy losses on rate moves?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if unwinding rupee carry positions spike India's onshore funding costs and forward premia?
8%▼ 0–6 months
What if speculators mount a sustained attack on the Hong Kong dollar peg?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if an unwind of rupiah carry trades spikes Indonesian funding costs and bond yields?
8%▼ 0–6 months
What if a regional dollar shortage forces Asian central banks to seek Fed swap lines?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if a global carry-trade reversal pulls funding out of high-yield Asian currencies at once?
8%▼ 0–6 months
What if a franc spike strains Swiss banks' large foreign-currency balance sheets?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if persistent krona weakness depletes Riksbank reserves needed to backstop dollar liquidity?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if a sharp unwinding of CAD carry trades drives loonie and rate volatility into a slowing economy?
8%▼ 1–3 years
What if yield-seeking crossover investors retreat from corporate credit as defaults rise?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if simultaneous stablecoin and money-fund liquidations tighten short-dollar funding globally?
8%▼ 0–6 months
What if Japanese banks and insurers compete for dollars, gapping the USD/JPY basis to -100bp?
8%▼ 0–6 months
What if regulatory window-dressing at year-end spikes EUR/USD and JPY/USD bases by 60-80bp?
8%▼ 0–6 months
What if dealer balance-sheet constraints turn a modest dollar bid into a funding crisis?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if an unwinding yen carry trade slams EM high-yield currencies?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if Turkey's lira carry trade collapses as orthodox policy reverses?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if an oil and real-yield spike ends India's rupee carry appeal?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if a CHF surge unwinds franc-funded carry trades into EM and high-yield assets?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if an FX volatility regime break forces systematic funds to cut leverage across currencies?
8%▼ 1–3 years
What if disorderly dollar strength prompts coordinated G7 FX intervention talks?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if a JGB yield surge collapses the yen carry trade and spikes global volatility?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if rising Japanese yields pull capital home and lift US long rates?
7%▼ 0–6 months
What if the rand plunges sharply as global volatility unwinds the carry trade?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if euro-area stress drives a safe-haven EUR/CHF slide toward 0.90?
7%▼ 0–6 months
What if a global risk-off shock drives a violent safe-haven yen rally to ¥120 per dollar?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if a year-end dollar repo drought forces Japanese banks to pay punitive rates for short-term funding?
7%▼ 1–3 years
What if sustained funding and credit pressure forces Japanese megabanks to shrink overseas lending?
7%▼ 0–6 months
What if a yen-carry unwind transmits contagion to global emerging-market assets?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if an unwind of SGD-funded carry positions amplifies regional FX volatility and tightens bank funding?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if an unwind of ringgit carry positions amplifies Malaysian bond and currency volatility?
7%▼ 0–6 months
What if a dollar flight sends CAD, SEK, NOK and the DKK peg into cascade stress?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if surging USD funding costs squeeze EM commodity importers and constrain physical flows?
7%▼ 0–6 months
What if a global dash-for-cash collapses dollar liquidity and spikes the FRA-OIS spread above 75bp?
7%▼ 0–6 months
What if an acute offshore dollar shortage forces the Fed to reopen swap lines at full size?
7%▼ 0–6 months
What if Korean banks face a dollar FX-swap rollover squeeze?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if ECB policy repricing unwinds euro-funded carry into dollars and EM assets?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if renminbi-funded carry into Asian and commodity currencies reverses sharply?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if one-sided high-carry positioning flushes violently on a risk-off catalyst?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if a single risk-off catalyst simultaneously blows out currency bases and unwinds carry trades?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if crowded foreign carry into Brazil's high real rates reverses abruptly on a fiscal headline?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if the RBI's managed low-vol rupee regime breaks under an oil-and-dollar shock?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if the Mexican peso 'super-peso' carry darling reverses sharply on US recession fears?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if a dollar squeeze pushes global banks toward breaching dollar liquidity-coverage thresholds?
7%▼ 6–18 months
What if AUD, NZD and NOK sell off together as G10 carry appetite collapses?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if Turkey hikes again pre-emptively to defend the disinflation?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if a risk-off shock sparks a global dollar scramble and blows out cross-currency basis?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if dollar-funding stress during sovereign turmoil blows out cross-currency basis?
6%▼ 6–18 months
What if a faster BoJ exit raises yen-funding costs and tightens carry-trade conditions globally?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if a global volatility spike triggers a flash depreciation in the Mexican peso?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if a confidence shock freezes wholesale funding markets for weaker European banks?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if the end of ECB liquidity programs drains excess reserves and tightens money-market conditions?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if a yen-carry unwind sparks sharp depreciations across emerging-market currencies?
6%▼ 6–18 months
What if stress in Japan's banking system spills into global markets through its megabanks?
6%▼ 1–3 years
What if Japan's agricultural-cooperative financial system faces compounding foreign-bond losses?
6%▼ 1–3 years
What if Japanese CRE funds gate redemptions, freezing capital and forcing eventual fire-sales?
6%▼ 1–3 years
What if regional banks locked into low-yield bonds cannot reinvest at higher rates without losses?
6%▼ 6–18 months
What if a global dollar squeeze blows out the cross-currency basis, hitting Japanese institutions hardest?
6%▼ 1–3 years
What if Japanese banks and insurers face mark-downs as global defaults hit their fund LP stakes?
6%▼ 1–3 years
What if the yen loses its safe-haven status and no longer rallies during global risk-off?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if a confidence shock triggers private-banking outflows from Singapore as regional markets sell off?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if the SGD/USD cross-currency basis blows out in a global dollar squeeze, straining Singapore banks?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if a Hong Kong IPO slump and equity outflows squeeze bank fee income and funding?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if a Nordic property and FX shock triggers a systemic liquidity event?
6%▼ 1–3 years
What if a bank's largest counterparty defaults just as a funding squeeze prevents hedging?
6%▼ 1–3 years
What if a cross-currency-basis blowout defaults counterparties running levered basis trades?
6%▼ 1–3 years
What if a safe-haven surge defaults counterparties running crowded FX carry trades?
6%▼ 6–18 months
What if global risk-off forces unwinding of leveraged crypto carry positions funded in cheap currencies?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if stigma prevents banks from drawing on Fed swap lines, leaving them dollar-short?
6%▼ 6–18 months
What if Swiss banks' large dollar books drive the CHF/USD cross-currency basis sharply negative?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if $80 trillion in hidden FX-swap dollar debt triggers a rollover squeeze?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if dollar, euro and yen funding all tighten at once for global banks?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if counterparty fears freeze the offshore eurodollar interbank market overnight?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if Taiwanese life insurers scramble for dollar hedges and blow out the TWD basis?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if Singapore banks face dollar-funding tightness as the SGD basis widens?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if HIBOR spikes and capital outflows test Hong Kong's dollar peg?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if US wholesale funding tightness strains Canadian banks as the dollar basis widens?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if Swedish and Norwegian banks face rollover stress as cross-currency bases widen?
6%▼ 1–3 years
What if geopolitics narrows the Fed's swap-line network and leaves some economies without a backstop?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if heavy use of the Fed's FIMA repo signals an acute global dollar shortage?
6%▼ 6–18 months
What if a bond-and-FX shock forces risk-parity funds to dump currency-carry overlays?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if a collateral scramble spikes SOFR far above the Fed's target range?
6%▼ 6–18 months
What if QT pushes bank reserves low enough to trigger repo spikes and funding scares?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if global banks pull back dollar trade-finance lines and choke EM import financing?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if the cross-currency basis inverts across tenors signaling a dollar squeeze?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if FX-collateralized repo markets seize as haircuts jump on non-dollar collateral?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if a risk-off shock hitting quarter-end reporting dates spikes dollar-funding rates sharply?
6%▼ 6–18 months
What if FRA-OIS, cross-currency bases and FX-swap rates all spike together confirming a dollar squeeze?
6%▼ 6–18 months
What if South Africa's twin deficits leave the rand acutely exposed when carry appetite turns?
6%▼ 1–3 years
What if standing Fed swap-line sizes prove too small for the scale of offshore dollar obligations?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if dealers cut FX-swap market-making in a volatility spike and bases blow out?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if stress-triggered money-market fund gates choke short-term dollar funding for non-US borrowers?
6%▼ 6–18 months
What if rapid rotation of carry funding between yen, franc and euro whipsaws FX markets?
6%▼ 6–18 months
What if the offshore eurodollar credit system contracts and tightens global dollar liquidity?
6%▼ 0–6 months
What if domestic repo and offshore FX-swap markets seize at the same time?
6%▼ 1–3 years
What if hidden leverage in FX carry trades transmits stress across borders faster than expected?
5%▼ 0–6 months
What if a sharp safe-haven dollar surge crushes carry trades and EM positions?
5%▼ 0–6 months
What if foreign banks tap Fed swap lines heavily as dollar funding dries up offshore?
5%▼ 0–6 months
What if a LatAm-wide risk-off crashes the Mexican peso and Brazilian real together?
5%▼ 0–6 months
What if a volatility spike triggers a simultaneous rout in Turkish lira, rand and peso carry trades?
5%▼ 0–6 months
What if a CNH liquidity squeeze spikes offshore yuan funding costs in Hong Kong?
5%▼ 0–6 months
What if a systemic counterparty failure freezes dollar interbank markets overnight?
5%▼ 6–18 months
What if prime brokers cut FX financing to leveraged funds during a volatility spike?