What if global risk-off forces unwinding of leveraged crypto carry positions funded in cheap currencies?
A global risk-off forces unwinding of leveraged crypto carry positions funded in cheap currencies, simultaneously hitting crypto and FX in the cross-asset channel the BIS notes.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A global risk-off forces unwinding of leveraged crypto carry positions funded in cheap currencies, simultaneously hitting crypto and FX in the cross-asset channel the BIS notes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -7.34–+1.02% · other way -12.85% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -4.81–+0.83% · other way -20.64% (n=10) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -11.19–+1.81% · other way -4.65% (n=11) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -13.56–+3.01% · other way -8.29% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.1–+1.42% · other way +1.57% (n=10) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.49–-0.05% · other way +0.55% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.46–+1.59% · other way -0.81% (n=12) |
| 9 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.31–+0.2% · other way +0.46% (n=12) |
| 10 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.86–+0.12% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.36–+0.27% · other way +1.19% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.44–+1.13% · other way -0.3% (n=12) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.06–+1.34% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.84–+1.87% · other way +3.22% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -9.1% · 5d -7.3% | 70% | 23 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -11.5% | 68% | 17 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -11.4% · 5d -10.5% | 69% | 19 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -6.3% | 66% | 31 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.6% | 65% | 29 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -0.0% | 63% | 29 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.8% | 62% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.8% | 62% | 16 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -7bp | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.2% | 59% | 30 | 0.17 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 29 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 30 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |