What if a debt jubilee wipes out student and household loans?
A debt jubilee is an inflation-and-confidence shock: monetized household-debt relief lifts inflation expectations and steepens the long end (30y>10y), softens DXY and bids gold/BTC as debasement hedges. No precise analogue; it rhymes with large unfunded fiscal-transfer impulses (the 2020-21 stimulus-driven breakeven surge, 1970s monetization). Skeptic: the consumption boost is front-loaded and one-off while the term-premium and inflation-credibility damage is persistent - so the durable trade is short the long bond and long real assets, fading any transient equity-relief pop.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A student/household-debt jubilee is enacted, reshaping consumption and credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation expectations ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.