What if Demographic-decline doom-loop drags Southern-Europe growth?
Combined emigration of the young and rapid aging entrench a demographic doom-loop in parts of Southern Europe, eroding the tax base and growth; the long-run drag pressures spreads and risk appetite.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Combined emigration of the young and rapid aging entrench a demographic doom-loop in parts of Southern Europe, eroding the tax base and growth; the long-run drag pressures spreads and risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.