What if developer defaults cascade to Chinese construction and materials suppliers?
Defaults ripple from developers to their construction, materials and services suppliers, triggering an SME-insolvency wave that raises bank NPLs and unemployment.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Defaults ripple from developers to their construction, materials and services suppliers, triggering an SME-insolvency wave that raises bank NPLs and unemployment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.0–+1.03% · other way +0.06% (n=11) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.95–+0.5% · other way +0.73% (n=11) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.74–-0.03% · other way -0.33% (n=11) |
| 4 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.96–+0.08% · other way -0.05% (n=11) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.36–+2.06% · other way +27.34% (n=11) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.02–+0.49% · other way -6.09% (n=11) |
| 7 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.01–+0.25% · other way -1.29% (n=9) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.9–+1.36% · other way +6.08% (n=9) |
| 9 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.3–+0.46% · other way +1.69% (n=11) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.53–+0.62% · other way -4.57% (n=9) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.39–+0.53% · other way -1.07% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.71–+0.17% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -12.22–+2.12% · other way -3.19% (n=9) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–-0.01% · other way -1.81% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.2% · 5d -13.5% | 72% | 21 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.0% | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.9% | 67% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.6% | 66% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.9% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -5.6% | 62% | 23 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.2% | 58% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.1% | 58% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.0% | 57% | 30 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.4% | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.4% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |