What if Digital-euro launch pressures private stablecoins and crypto rails?
The ECB rolls out a retail digital euro with usage incentives, crowding out euro stablecoins and dampening on-chain euro liquidity in the bloc.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The ECB rolls out a retail digital euro with usage incentives, crowding out euro stablecoins and dampening on-chain euro liquidity in the bloc. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.9% hist -2.63–-1.09% · other way -5.96% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.7% hist -14.6–+1.73% · other way -3.85% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.2% hist -10.97–+0.79% · other way -15.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.2% hist -9.99–+1.37% · other way -3.27% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.06–-0.23% · other way +6.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.91–-0.07% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.23–+0.3% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.22–+0.32% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -12.54–+3.0% · other way +0.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–+0.34% · other way -0.14% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -12.94–+3.61% · other way -1.8% (n=12) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.09–+0.27% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 14 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–+0.14% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -10.0% | 76% | 32 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -11.3% · 5d -8.9% | 72% | 33 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -6.0% | 69% | 33 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 66% | 37 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -6bp | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 37 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -6bp | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.4% | 57% | 37 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.5% | 55% | 37 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 53% | 37 | 0.05 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 53% | 37 | 0.05 | · |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 51% | 32 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |