What if a run on a globally-used dollar stablecoin forces reserve sales that lift US bill yields?
A run on a globally-used dollar stablecoin forces reserve sales that lift US bill yields and tighten dollar funding worldwide, the cross-border transmission the FSB and ECB jointly flag.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A run on a globally-used dollar stablecoin forces reserve sales that lift US bill yields and tighten dollar funding worldwide, the cross-border transmission the FSB and ECB jointly flag. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -6.9% hist -5.91–-1.08% · other way -7.85% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -6.1% hist -18.31–+5.91% · other way -6.7% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -4.4% hist -14.73–+4.51% · other way -18.56% (n=11) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -3.9% hist -17.52–+4.47% · other way -5.65% (n=11) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -3.46–-0.71% · other way +2.5% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.06–+0.56% · other way +0.53% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.1–+0.34% · other way -0.52% (n=12) |
| 9 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.04% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.33–+0.01% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.34–+0.51% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 12 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.4–+0.08% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 13 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.1% hist +0.02–+0.15% · other way +0.33% (n=12) |
| 14 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.1% hist -1.57–+0.27% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 33 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -14.4% · 5d -8.8% | 82% | 11 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.9% · 5d -15.8% | 78% | 9 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -14.4% · 5d -11.7% | 70% | 10 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 27 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -4.9% | 66% | 28 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -17bp · 5d -9bp | 63% | 33 | 0.23 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 26 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 33 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 54% | 27 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +1.3% | 56% | 27 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 54% | 28 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 53% | 27 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 51% | 28 | 0.02 | · |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.2% | 44% | 9 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |