What if Disinflation plus de-dollarization re-monetizes a local currency?
A credible stabilization brings inflation down and reverses dollarization, as residents shift savings back into local currency and deepen the domestic money market.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A credible stabilization brings inflation down and reverses dollarization, as residents shift savings back into local currency and deepen the domestic money market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Credit spreads ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.5% hist -5.39–+15.7% · other way -1.63% (n=6) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.4% hist -2.12–+6.69% · other way +2.08% (n=5) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.14–+0.79% · other way -3.15% (n=6) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.2% hist -2.42–+6.41% · other way +2.29% (n=3) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.26–+0.76% · other way -8.13% (n=6) |
| 6 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.17–+0.52% · other way -0.98% (n=6) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -4.65–+10.47% · other way +11.59% (n=3) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.69–+2.75% · other way +0.08% (n=4) |
| 10 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.5–-0.19% · other way +0.64% (n=12) |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.07–+0.69% · other way -1.31% (n=6) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.16–+0.34% · other way -1.23% (n=6) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.18–+0.74% · other way -0.07% (n=7) |
| 14 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.05–+0.47% · other way +0.29% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +2bp | 67% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.9% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -4.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +13.7% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |