What if E-commerce share grind to ~29% of US retail re-rates online names?
Online penetration climbs from low-20s toward ~29% of US retail by 2030, compounding revenue at e-commerce platforms; Amazon, Shopify and marketplace names re-rate on durable share-gain growth.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Online penetration climbs from low-20s toward ~29% of US retail by 2030, compounding revenue at e-commerce platforms; Amazon, Shopify and marketplace names re-rate on durable share-gain growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.36–+1.03% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -25.44–+9.21% · other way -10.4% (n=11) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -6.41–+14.16% · other way +8.04% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.07–+5.77% · other way -2.59% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.13–+1.09% · other way +0.31% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.29–+0.62% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.07–+2.89% · other way -3.37% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.28–+1.96% · other way -10.05% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.97–+4.38% · other way -6.01% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.77–+3.58% · other way +4.23% (n=12) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -6.57–+3.7% · other way +2.42% (n=12) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.52–+3.58% · other way +2.12% (n=12) |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -6.63–+4.96% · other way -1.83% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 7 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -23.8% · 5d -10.7% | 100% | 6 | 0.72 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +1.5% | 87% | 7 | 0.61 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +13.5% · 5d +1.3% | 87% | 7 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.3% · 5d +0.8% | 87% | 7 | 0.57 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.5% | 87% | 7 | 0.51 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 87% | 7 | 0.47 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d +1.3% ↺ fades | 80% | 7 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -0.0% | 80% | 7 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -2.5% | 73% | 7 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -0.5% | 73% | 7 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.3% | 73% | 7 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d -4bp ↺ fades | 73% | 7 | 0.28 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 67% | 7 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +5.6% · 5d +3.2% | 60% | 7 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |