What if AI-grid-EV copper super-cycle opens 30% deficit by 2035?
Datacenter power buildout, grid electrification and EVs outrun new mine supply, opening a structural ~30% copper deficit; the market re-rates to a new, higher equilibrium price.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Datacenter power buildout, grid electrification and EVs outrun new mine supply, opening a structural ~30% copper deficit; the market re-rates to a new, higher equilibrium price. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · AI capex ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -1.29–+3.76% · other way -4.29% (n=5) |
| 2 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.21–-0.27% · other way -0.89% (n=5) |
| 3 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.65–+1.36% · other way +0.41% (n=5) |
| 4 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.58–+0.22% · other way -1.35% (n=5) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.62–+0.31% · other way +1.5% (n=12) |
| 6 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.94–+1.25% · other way -1.99% (n=5) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.61–+3.29% · other way +1.7% (n=5) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.17–+0.56% · other way -0.14% (n=5) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -10.11–+5.7% · other way -9.54% (n=5) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.28–+1.16% · other way -2.19% (n=5) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.41–+0.61% · other way -6.42% (n=6) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.17–+0.35% · other way -1.33% (n=6) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -9.47–+21.71% · other way +11.17% (n=5) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 16 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +20.7% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 71% | 13 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +0.8% | 71% | 16 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -6.4% | 75% | 15 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.4% · 5d -11.5% | 77% | 10 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.7% | 68% | 13 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 12 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +10.0% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 11 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.9% | 64% | 13 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 13 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 13 | 0.18 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +0.8% | 61% | 13 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d 0bp ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.5% | 59% | 15 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -4.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 10 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |