What if Ecuador new-oil-block auctions rebuild fiscal buffers?
Successful licensing of new Ecuadorian oil blocks lifts long-run output and revenue, easing the financing constraints of dollarization.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Successful licensing of new Ecuadorian oil blocks lifts long-run output and revenue, easing the financing constraints of dollarization. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Global growth ▲ · Oil demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.91–+10.32% · other way -3.25% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.14–+0.25% · other way +2.97% (n=5) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.24–+0.18% · other way +2.3% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.09–+0.19% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.1–+0.37% · other way +7.18% (n=11) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.24–+2.8% · other way +6.22% (n=7) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.72–+1.94% · other way +0.76% (n=5) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.11–+0.56% · other way -2.26% (n=11) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.08–+0.59% · other way +0.34% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.04–+0.14% · other way +0.91% (n=11) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.82–+17.64% · other way -9.52% (n=3) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.36–+1.27% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +15.1% · 5d +3.8% | 68% | 30 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 36 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.9% | 57% | 38 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 38 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 32 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 38 | 0.05 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +4bp | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.9% | 51% | 39 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +9.9% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 49% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -6.5% ↺ fades | 49% | 32 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -1.0% | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |