What if El Salvador Bitcoin-backed bond complicates IMF program design?
El Salvador's Bitcoin-linked debt experiment complicates IMF program design, and crypto-price volatility feeds through to its eurobond valuation and rating.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. El Salvador's Bitcoin-linked debt experiment complicates IMF program design, and crypto-price volatility feeds through to its eurobond valuation and rating. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Crypto confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.7% hist -5.54–+2.25% · other way -2.53% (n=11) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist -3.61–+1.45% · other way +21.07% (n=12) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -4.85–+0.87% · other way +0.57% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -15.69–+1.64% · other way -7.23% (n=11) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.13–+5.36% · other way +13.02% (n=11) |
| 6 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.58–+0.0% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 7 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.38–+0.5% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.52–+0.04% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.93–+6.87% · other way -1.93% (n=12) |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.38–-0.02% · other way -0.24% (n=12) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.65–+0.12% · other way +0.11% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.6–+0.15% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.3% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.6% · 5d -12.6% | 82% | 19 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -3.3% | 75% | 20 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.4% | 67% | 37 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -4.6% | 68% | 19 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 35 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -13bp · 5d -6bp | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 37 | 0.13 | · |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +1.0% | 59% | 36 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.8% · 5d +4.9% | 55% | 19 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.5% · 5d +1.8% | 53% | 38 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.2% | 53% | 37 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.6% | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 46% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |