What if EM inflation upside surprise reignites pass-through fears?
A common food-and-energy shock lifts EM inflation simultaneously, forcing emergency tightening and reviving FX pass-through fears across import-dependent economies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A common food-and-energy shock lifts EM inflation simultaneously, forcing emergency tightening and reviving FX pass-through fears across import-dependent economies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -4.2–+0.72% · other way +33.17% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.63–-0.15% · other way -0.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.65–+0.34% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.22–+2.93% · other way -2.3% (n=11) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.58–+0.48% · other way +7.7% (n=11) |
| 6 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.32–+0.29% · other way -0.57% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.97–+4.54% · other way -5.03% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.53–+1.19% · other way +4.16% (n=11) |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.57–-0.03% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.47–+0.5% · other way +1.31% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.52–+0.0% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.53–+4.32% · other way +24.19% (n=11) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.2–-0.11% · other way +1.06% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.9% | 66% | 32 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +4.4% | 65% | 14 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 30 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 32 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -3.9% | 62% | 8 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -4bp | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -5bp | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -9.1% | 55% | 14 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.3% | 54% | 16 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.8% | 55% | 15 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 52% | 32 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.6% | 43% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |