What if Energy and gas shortages throttle Bangladesh industry?
LNG-import constraints and gas shortages force factory load-shedding, hitting garment output and exports; growth and the external balance both deteriorate.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. LNG-import constraints and gas shortages force factory load-shedding, hitting garment output and exports; growth and the external balance both deteriorate. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Natural gas ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.62–+6.1% · other way +0.5% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.91–+1.48% · other way +24.45% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.98–+0.3% · other way +5.96% (n=10) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.33–+0.68% · other way -0.09% (n=11) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.63–+2.04% · other way -3.27% (n=11) |
| 7 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.03–+0.46% · other way +8.67% (n=11) |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.6–+0.09% · other way +0.05% (n=11) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.45–+2.9% · other way +5.98% (n=10) |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.09–+0.24% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.33–+0.53% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.25–+0.33% · other way -1.85% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.5–+4.47% · other way +26.57% (n=10) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.16–+0.15% · other way -0.87% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 31 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INR INR | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.4% | 75% | 23 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 65% | 26 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.3% | 60% | 24 | 0.19 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 59% | 31 | 0.17 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.7% | 58% | 25 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 24 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 24 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 31 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 24 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 23 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.0% · 5d -5.5% ↺ fades | 52% | 11 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.4% | 43% | 11 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 44% | 24 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 45% | 14 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |