What if Ethiopia devalues the birr again past 180 to the dollar?
A fresh birr leg past 180 is an idiosyncratic frontier-FX event, not a global credit shock: it spikes Ethiopian import-CPI and pressures the sovereign's restructured Eurobonds, but transmission to S&P/BTC is negligible. Rhymes with Nigeria's 2023-24 naira floats, where the local curve and external bonds repriced hard while global HY shrugged. Forward angle: Ethiopia's IMF program and ongoing 2024 default workout cap contagion versus a disorderly Egypt-2016 break.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Addis allows a fresh birr devaluation leg past 180/USD official to close the parallel gap, surging import-price inflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.