What if euro-area inflation stays stuck near 9% and fails to converge to target?
Euro-area HICP stays stuck near 9% as energy and wage pass-through entrench, mirroring the EBA 2023 adverse path where inflation fails to converge to target over the three-year horizon.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Euro-area HICP stays stuck near 9% as energy and wage pass-through entrench, mirroring the EBA 2023 adverse path where inflation fails to converge to target over the three-year horizon. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.52–+4.07% · other way +29.33% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.04–+0.76% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.11–+0.09% · other way -0.69% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.46–-0.2% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist +1.21–+5.93% · other way +4.8% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.0–+3.4% · other way +8.73% (n=12) |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -0.13–+3.57% · other way +7.8% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.03–+0.1% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.93–+0.2% · other way +0.52% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -7.93–+3.96% · other way -1.96% (n=10) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.2–+2.79% · other way -6.72% (n=12) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.59–+1.59% · other way +5.46% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.19–+0.75% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 26 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.6% | 93% | 15 | 0.70 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +19.6% · 5d +8.3% | 86% | 7 | 0.63 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -4.8% | 100% | 3 | 0.55 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 80% | 15 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +7.3% · 5d +1.3% | 71% | 7 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.6% | 67% | 15 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.7% | 64% | 26 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 15 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 15 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.1% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +4bp ↺ fades | 57% | 26 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 10 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.6% | 55% | 26 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d +13.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 16 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |