What if the euro area suffers a 6% GDP drop while inflation stays near 10%?
The EBA/ESRB 2023 adverse scenario crystallises: euro-area real GDP falls 6.0% cumulative while HICP stays near 9.7%, the deepest combined growth-inflation shock in the test's history.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The EBA/ESRB 2023 adverse scenario crystallises: euro-area real GDP falls 6.0% cumulative while HICP stays near 9.7%, the deepest combined growth-inflation shock in the test's history. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -4.34–+3.36% · other way +29.33% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.33–-0.64% · other way +0.52% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.06–-0.56% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.41–+1.1% · other way +5.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.41–+2.99% · other way +8.73% (n=12) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.41–+0.54% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.1% hist -3.66–+3.12% · other way -6.72% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.54–+0.54% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.72–-0.28% · other way +0.73% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -9.95–+19.61% · other way +23.47% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.89–+0.14% · other way -0.45% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.99–+0.97% · other way -0.14% (n=12) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.37–+0.34% · other way +1.55% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 26 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +19.6% · 5d +8.3% | 86% | 7 | 0.63 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.3% | 80% | 15 | 0.55 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -4.8% | 100% | 3 | 0.55 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 80% | 15 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +7.3% · 5d +1.3% | 71% | 7 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.1% | 67% | 15 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 15 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.6% | 67% | 15 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.7% | 64% | 26 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -0.8% | 66% | 20 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +3.3% · 5d +0.4% | 67% | 15 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 13 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| XLU XLU | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 15 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -3.6% ↺ fades | 60% | 15 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |