What if eurozone depositors flee the periphery for German banks?
Periphery-to-Bund deposit flight is the funding-side of breakup risk: TARGET2 imbalances balloon, Italian/Spanish bank funding costs spike, long Bunds vs BTP and short periphery banks. This is the summer-2012 capital-flight playbook, when TARGET2 claims on the Bundesbank topped EUR750bn before 'whatever it takes' reversed it. Germany is the safe-haven sink; the periphery is the funder being drained. The Solana -1.9% / Nasdaq cascade misses that this is fundamentally an intra-EMU bank-funding and rates story.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Periphery savers shift cash to German banks amid breakup fears, draining Italian and Spanish liquidity. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.