What if a forged ECB rate decision goes viral before markets open?
A forged ECB rate release is a bund/euro whipsaw that reverses on official denial: front-end EUR rates and the euro gap on the fake decision, then snap back within minutes. No clean analogue; nearest rhymes are fat-finger/fake-headline flash events (the 2013 hacked-AP 'White House explosion' tweet, S&P -1% then full recovery). The skeptical read: this is a liquidity-air-pocket, not a regime change — the move is a fade, and the residual risk is algos that trade headlines.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the Imminent horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Forged ECB rate-decision release goes viral pre-market, bunds and euro whipsaw before official denial. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.