Fed policy path
Every scenario in which fed policy path is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
214 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
58%▲ 6–18 months
What if BOJ exits negative rates smoothly with a gradual, telegraphed glide?
53%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed ends QT and pivots to a passive balance-sheet runoff stop?
52%▼ 6–18 months
What if ECB cuts into a fragile recovery, reflating the periphery?
49%▲ 6–18 months
What if BOJ scraps yield-curve control without a JGB market dislocation?
48%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed shifts to a 'meeting-by-meeting' data-dependence that markets reward?
47%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed front-loads a faster cutting cycle than the dots imply?
47%▼ 1–3 years
What if Fed glides to a soft landing with a shallow telegraphed cutting path?
47%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed leans dovish as the dual mandate tilts toward jobs?
47%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed declares the last mile won and front-loads relief cuts?
47%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed cuts and long yields fall together in a textbook bull rally?
43%▲ 0–6 months
What if expiring rate caps implode apartment syndicators' bridge loans?
43%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed easing reopens the IG and HY primary markets at tight spreads?
43%▼ 6–18 months
What if ECB delivers a 'soft-landing' easing that revives periphery growth?
43%▼ 6–18 months
What if BoE engineers an orderly easing as UK inflation finally cracks?
43%▼ 6–18 months
What if Global disinflation lets central banks cut in a synchronized risk-on?
42%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed independence holds; orderly easing cycle?
42%▼ 6–18 months
What if ECB front-loads cuts as eurozone disinflation outpaces forecasts?
41%▼ 1–3 years
What if Fed cuts its r-star estimate, anchoring a lower-for-longer regime?
40%▼ 0–6 months
What if the 2s10s yield curve dis-inverts sharply?
40%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sunbelt builders' incentive war collapses their margins?
40%▲ 6–18 months
What if Diesel-led inflation pulse complicates central-bank easing?
40%▼ 0–6 months
What if Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing?
40%▼ 0–6 months
What if Fed skips a meeting, opening the door to a soft-landing pause?
40%▼ 6–18 months
What if BoC cuts cushion a mortgage-renewal wall in a soft landing?
38%▼ 6–18 months
What if cooling inflation and steady growth confirm a soft landing?
37%▼ 6–18 months
What if RBA pivots to cuts as China-demand drag cools Australian prices?
36%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Fed signals higher rates for longer?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Hawkish dot-plot surprise: median path lifts the terminal rate?
34%▼ 0–6 months
What if the Fed quietly expands its balance sheet?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan normalizes rates smoothly without a JGB rupture?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan completes BoJ normalization with JGB market intact?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if stagflation becomes entrenched in Britain?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if Soft-landing easing: disinflation lets Fed cut cleanly?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if the Fed chair is abruptly replaced?
31%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hungary's spending splurge breaches EU deficit rules and sinks the forint?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if a wave of ARM resets delivers a payment shock?
31%▼ 1–3 years
What if Orderly yen appreciation as the BoJ-Fed policy gap narrows?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed dovish surprise sinks the dollar and ignites a global risk rally?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed's preferred PCE undershoots, greenlighting a cutting cycle?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Cooling wages clear the way for a Fed dovish pivot?
30%▼ 0–6 months
What if the Bank of Canada cuts far below the Fed and sinks the loonie?
30%▼ 6–18 months
What if Bull-steepener as Fed cuts into a soft economy?
30%▲ 1–3 years
What if Orderly BoJ exit firms the yen and rewards JGB holders?
29%▲ 0–6 months
What if Brazil hikes its Selic rate to 16% to defend the real?
28%▼ 0–6 months
What if a deep payrolls revision reveals a hidden recession?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Japan's wage talks deliver a 7% inflation breakout?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if JGB 30y hits a record as BoJ QT meets debt-funded stimulus?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed framework review drops average-inflation-targeting for a clean 2%?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Germany scraps its debt brake entirely?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed losses pass $350bn and Congress fights back?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed-dovish pivot revives the EM real-rate carry advantage?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-spike inflation scare forces a hawkish Fed hold?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gold pressured as a Fed-credibility restoration lifts the dollar?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed misreads a productivity boom and over-eases into hot demand?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM inflation re-acceleration forces a surprise hiking cycle?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed signals a higher neutral rate (r-star), repricing the long end?
26%▼ 0–6 months
What if Powell presser validates the dovish pivot, lighting a melt-up?
26%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed reinstates a formal 'Fed put' with a conditional easing pledge?
26%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed-cut bull-steepening drives a rotation into long-duration equities?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if Fed adopts nominal-GDP targeting, overhauling the reaction function?
26%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aging shifts the political economy toward inflation-averse hard money?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Fed institutionalizes faster cuts via a lower asymmetric loss function?
25%▼ 6–18 months
What if SNB cuts to zero and resumes FX sales to cap franc strength?
25%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed nails the pivot timing, cementing a soft-landing legacy?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if BCB forced to hike again as Brazil inflation re-accelerates?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if Central banks tolerate inflation overshoot to ease the debt burden?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed cuts straight into a fresh tariff-driven inflation impulse?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if BoE cuts into sticky UK services inflation, weakening sterling?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if BoC over-eases as a housing-debt cycle reignites inflation?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed misreads soft NFP as immigration collapses breakeven payrolls?
23%▲ 0–6 months
What if Norway keeps hiking rates while its peers ease?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sticky inflation forces a hawkish Fed hold?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Rand gaps weaker on a US-rate-shock-driven EM selloff?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Precious-metals washout on a hawkish inflation-reacceleration scare?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed hawkish surprise drives a dollar wrecking-ball across EM?
23%▼ 6–18 months
What if DM central banks coordinate dovish guidance in a soft-landing chorus?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Swiss deflation drags the SNB back to negative rates?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if Powell presser walks back market easing bets in a hawkish pivot?
22%▲ 3–10 years
What if Demographic inflation forces a higher Fed neutral-rate estimate?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Reform UK wins the most seats in the Commons?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bear-flattener as inflation forces higher-for-longer?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed cuts too soon: a 'mission accomplished' pivot reignites inflation?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Post-Powell chair: a credible inflation hawk reanchors expectations?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed hardens its anti-inflation mandate after a credibility scare?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if ECB hawkish surprise: a hold defies dovish market pricing?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if ECB-Fed divergence drives the euro toward parity with the dollar?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Reserve Bank of India hikes rates off-cycle?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Loyalist Fed chair breaches central-bank independence?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if BoJ stealth taper of JGB buying jolts the long end?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hot core CPI forces the Fed to pause an in-progress cutting cycle?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed 'last-mile' stubbornness keeps policy too tight too long?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Labor-supply normalization breaks the US wage-price loop (good)?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if the Fed restarts quantitative easing?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if a hawk wins the fight for the ECB presidency?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if sticky inflation forces surprise back-to-back RBA hikes?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if universal US tariffs pass through to consumer prices and force the Fed to hold rates higher?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Inflation re-acceleration forces a hawkish surprise?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if DXY break above cycle highs forces a defensive EM rate-hike wave?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Imported-inflation relapse forces EM hikes and FX defense at once?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed over-tightens on a flawed CPI signal and breaks credit?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if BOJ hikes faster than markets price, snapping the yen carry trade?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if BOJ-Fed policy divergence widens, supercharging the yen carry trade?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if ECB over-eases and reignites eurozone services inflation?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed's preferred PCE re-accelerates, killing the cut narrative?
18%▼ 0–6 months
What if the ECB triggers its anti-fragmentation bond-buying tool?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if a surprise BOJ hike to 1.5% detonates the carry trade?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if BoJ surprise hike snaps USDJPY and unwinds the yen carry?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Tariff-driven inflation forces Fed back to hikes?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if India CPI re-acceleration forces a surprise RBI hike?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoJ YCC exit overshoots, JGB yields gap and yen carry snaps?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if DM curve bear-flattens as CBs fight inflation into a debt wall?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Goldilocks-to-overheat: melt-up forces a hawkish lean?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed holds too long: restrictive policy tips the US into a hard landing?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sticky global services inflation forces central banks to re-tighten?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Anti-immigrant labor squeeze forces US wage-price spiral risk?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Mexico's Banxico hikes between meetings to halt a peso rout?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Fed-hawkish repricing drains EM-FX through the real-rate channel?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Yen blows past 165 as BoJ lags, intervention threat caps risk?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoJ surprise hike snaps the global carry trade in a single session?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed removes the 'Fed put,' tolerating a deeper risk drawdown?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if RBA holds hawkish as Australian inflation proves stubborn?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed wage-spiral fear forces a hawkish hold despite cooling CPI?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gas-spike inflation print revives a Fed-hawkish energy scare?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Inflation re-acceleration forces DM to issue into a hawkish CB?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Inflation second wave: premature easing reignites a 1978-79 echo?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if Dovish dot-plot surprise: three cuts penciled in, risk assets pop?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hawkish-surprise de-rating: a higher-for-longer repricing?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed emergency inter-meeting cut signals a fast-breaking crisis?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if BOJ exits NIRP and YCC in one disorderly JGB-yield tantrum?
15%▼ 0–6 months
What if the ECB triggers its anti-fragmentation backstop for Italy?
14%▼ 6–18 months
What if the White House packs the Fed into a forced rate cut?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if Sweden's Riksbank scrambles to halt a krona collapse?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if bank-loan fund outflows accelerate as the Fed signals rate cuts?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if Services superinflation: shelter and insurance keep core PCE above 4%?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if Real-yield spike gold drawdown: TIPS surge knocks bullion lower?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Goods deflation, services inflation tug-of-war stalls core?
13%▼ 0–6 months
What if the Fed makes an emergency 50bp rate cut?
13%▼ 0–6 months
What if Turkey restructures its domestic lira bonds?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if a rate spike sparks an annuity run at a life insurer?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if a gilt spike sets off a bigger UK pension LDI doom loop?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if a stablecoin redemption wave triggers a Treasury-bill fire sale?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Brent above $130 forces central banks to delay rate cuts as inflation reaccelerates?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if a structural copper deficit keeps metals-linked inflation elevated and rates higher for longer?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if ECB stays hawkish as a gas shock relifts inflation?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Sticky UK inflation: services CPI keeps the BoE hawkish into stall?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Higher-for-longer regime: real yields anchor above 2.5% for years?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if a US 30-year Treasury auction fails?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if inflation reaccelerates toward 5% and forces the Fed to resume rate hikes?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a jump in US real yields triggers a sharp gold selloff?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if fragmentation and reshoring permanently lift the structural inflation floor?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-shock stagflation forces a Fed hawkish hold?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Sticky-core, soft-headline split: Fed trapped by divergent gauges?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Fed delivers a surprise 50bp cut to get ahead of the curve?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if the Fed caps long-end yields with yield-curve control?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a 30-year Japanese government bond auction fails?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if a major central bank abandons forward guidance?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if the Fed is pressured to cap yields and monetize debt?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if Tokyo openly directs the Bank of Japan to absorb new debt?
11%▲ Imminent
What if a forged ECB rate decision goes viral before markets open?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if the BoE holds Bank Rate above 5% to fight sticky services inflation?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if the ECB restarts rate hikes after inflation re-accelerates?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if dollar pegs force GCC economies to import Fed rate hikes during a low-oil downturn?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if deeper-than-expected OPEC+ cuts spike Brent and complicate disinflation?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if higher-for-longer Fed rates grind EM FX and dollar-debt costs steadily worse?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-spike inflation scare repriced across rates curves?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hawkish hold shock: dot plot signals no cuts, real yields jump?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Stop-go policy whipsaw: cut-pause-hike cycle whips volatility higher?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Inflation-expectations un-anchoring: 5y5y breakeven breaks 3%?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Bank of Japan surprises with a hike to 1.5%?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if the ECB hikes rates straight into a recession?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Fed badly misjudges inflation as it tops 5% again?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if a hard landing forces the Fed to slash rates back to zero within a year?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if quantitative tightening drains reserves too low and forces the Fed to reverse course?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if central banks stay higher for longer and prolong global mortgage-reset shocks?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Bank of Canada stays restrictive longer and intensifies the mortgage renewal shock?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 6% to fight double-digit inflation?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if euro-area real yields climb above 1.5% and compress equity valuations?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if markets abandon ECB easing bets and Euribor reprices sharply higher?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a US inflation surprise forces the Fed to re-hike and spikes the dollar?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if greenflation forces central banks to keep policy tight against transition-driven inflation?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if Policy-error overtightening: real rates choke a healthy expansion?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Jobs-report shock: a blowout payroll kills the cut narrative?
9%▼ 6–18 months
What if the ECB imposes an explicit ceiling on Bund yields?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if buyers strike at the 30-year Treasury auction?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if a central bank's yield-curve-control peg breaks?
9%▼ 1–3 years
What if the ECB cuts rates deeply negative again?
9%▼ 6–18 months
What if the Fed restarts quantitative easing to backstop dysfunctional markets?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if long-run inflation expectations de-anchor and force a punitive policy response?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Fed cuts and then is forced to re-hike as inflation rebounds?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if the RBA holds rates elevated and prolongs variable-rate pain for Australian households?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if Riksbank tightening passes rapidly through Sweden's short-fixation mortgages?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if Norges Bank tightening passes almost fully into Norway's floating-rate mortgages?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if fresh inflation forces the ECB to abruptly pause or reverse planned rate cuts?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a hawkish Fed surprise gaps the rupee weaker through the RBI's tolerance band?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a hawkish Fed surprise hits the rupiah hardest among ASEAN currencies?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a hawkish Fed drives outflows from Malaysia's open bond market and spikes yields?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a Fed surprise and dollar surge cascade through Asian currencies all at once?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if CPI upside surprise shock: a hot print resets cut expectations?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Fed surprises markets with a rate hike?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if the ECB over-tightens straight into a recession?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if acute market stress forces an unscheduled inter-meeting rate cut?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Fed hikes the funds rate toward 7% to quell persistent inflation?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if broad import tariffs spike inflation and keep the Fed restrictive as growth slows?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if the ECB overtightens and pushes the euro area into recession?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if the ECB faces an acute stagflation bind where any rate path worsens either inflation or recession?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if Malaysia capital outflow on Fed-hawkish surprise hits ringgit?
7%▼ 3–10 years
What if a major economy adopts Modern Monetary Theory outright?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if Washington cancels federal student debt en masse?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if markets conclude the neutral interest rate is structurally higher?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 8%?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if Turkey hikes again pre-emptively to defend the disinflation?
6%▲ 6–18 months
What if a deep recession hits while inflation stays stuck near 5%?
6%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Fed stays restrictive as the economy contracts into a hard landing?
6%▼ 1–3 years
What if the Fed adopts yield-curve control to cap long-term interest rates?